A Spirited Perfect Ten

[Bairstow]

If it works just as intended then we're all a bunch of lousy analysts and operations doesn't really know how to do their job. It also means people like Jay Rasulo really do have a stronger grasp of operations than those dealing with the day-to-day realities. I'm more inclined to think that the predicted inefficiencies are there, thus resulting in the long expected increases in crowding (which Disney also anticipated with the interactive queues).

As much as everyone loves to scapegoat MyMagic, I don't think the longer wait times and overcrowding can be blamed on system.
FastPassPlus might have lead to a slight increase in fastpass usage, but if TEA's numbers are to be trusted the parks, and the Magic Kingdom especially, have seen significant increases in attendance in the last couple years. Without new attractions to split the crowd, wait times were going to go up no matter what.

 

[lazyboy97o]

As much as everyone loves to scapegoat MyMagic, I don't think the longer wait times and overcrowding can be blamed on system.
FastPassPlus might have lead to a slight increase in fastpass usage, but if TEA's numbers are to be trusted the parks, and the Magic Kingdom especially, have seen significant increases in attendance in the last couple years. Without new attractions to split the crowd, wait times were going to go up no matter what.

The whole point of FastPass and FastPass+ is to increase time spent in in shops and restaurants, to increase crowding.

 

[Goofyernmost]

MyMagic works.. but when it hits a busy day.. the systems crash and collapse in awful ways.
Until Disney finds a way to fix this.. I'm pretty sure the trend will continue.
As for critiques.. more like they got sick of complaining and most complains falling in deaf hears.

Cesar... what is your source on this or is it just an opinion. I have not heard of everything crashing every time it gets busy. Lately it is always busy so, ergo, the place would be closed down by now.

 

[Goofyernmost]

The whole point of FastPass and FastPass+ is to increase time spent in in shops and restaurants, to increase crowding.

It may have been at one point, but, that ship has sailed a long time ago. Now it is the 800 pound Gorilla in the living room. It's there and it cannot be moved without causing a massive uproar. It proved years ago that it didn't do anything to increase sales of merchandise. With or without it, people will still buy souvenirs and have to eat at some point. That is something that they make time for, so if that was the intent, it was not very well thought out.

 

[PhotoDave219]

As much as everyone loves to scapegoat MyMagic, I don't think the longer wait times and overcrowding can be blamed on system.
FastPassPlus might have lead to a slight increase in fastpass usage, but if TEA's numbers are to be trusted the parks, and the Magic Kingdom especially, have seen significant increases in attendance in the last couple years. Without new attractions to split the crowd, wait times were going to go up no matter what.

The only I speculated that was because the shape of the graph matches the data from Summer 2013 & 2014, just Higher.

I have every reason to believe that the touring plans data Is accurate. All parks are showing the same trend, especially DHS.

after June I started pulling my hair out, trying to make any sense of it. After July? It's just that this summer is that damn busy.

I really don't believe that it's MM+. Guessing it's a perfect storm of environmental factors - rebounded economy, frozen, brutal winter up north, etc. and disney's marketing department

 

[Bairstow]

The whole point of FastPass and FastPass+ is to increase time spent in in shops and restaurants, to increase crowding.

That was the initial idea behind Fastpass.
I think a lot of the push behind FastpassPlus was to increase guest satisfaction by ensuring that families would get to do their favorites and to lower the learning curve needed to use the paper fastpass system to obtain passes to the super high-demand attractions like Midway Mania and Soaring. Plus it was just one part of a larger infrastructure overhaul to all guest services and reservations in general.

 

[lazyboy97o]

It may have been at one point, but, that ship has sailed a long time ago. Now it is the 800 pound Gorilla in the living room. It's there and it cannot be moved without causing a massive uproar. It proved years ago that it didn't do anything to increase sales of merchandise. With or without it, people will still buy souvenirs and have to eat at some point. That is something that they make time for, so if that was the intent, it was not very well thought out.

That was the initial idea behind Fastpass.
I think a lot of the push behind FastpassPlus was to increase guest satisfaction by ensuring that families would get to do their favorites and to lower the learning curve needed to use the paper fastpass system to obtain passes to the super high-demand attractions like Midway Mania and Soaring. Plus it was just one part of a larger infrastructure overhaul to all guest services and reservations in general.

MyMagic+ was also sold as being a means of increasing revenue.

 

[GrandRoyale]

The whole point of FastPass and FastPass+ is to increase time spent in in shops and restaurants, to increase crowding.

That has nothing to do with the attendance/how many people actually come into the park....

 

[RSoxNo1]

I was at WDW in May and planned on updating my annual pass to a premier pass so that I could use it on my upcoming California trip. I was told that an issue might surface with my Fastpasses if I were to do it so we elected to wait until the trip was over. I went in to plan some dining reservations for a potential trip in January and saw that I didn't have a registered ticket on the site. Nice to see that they're at least aware that the system can't handle anything remotely complex like upgrading to a higher level of ticket.

 

[ParentsOf4]

NY Times has an article about all the investment in Universal parks.

My favorite part:

“I don’t think it’s a great business,” said Doug Creutz, an analyst at Cowen and Company. “You’re always pouring money into them. It’s relatively low return. And when you have a downturn in the economy, they typically get hit pretty hard.”​

Let's see ...

"You’re always pouring money into them."

Heaven forbid, you actually have to invest in a business to realize a return.

"It’s relatively low return."

Universal's Theme Parks division saw a 33.4% operating margin for the first 6 months of the year. How friggin' big of a return do you want before you stop calling it "low"?

"And when you have a downturn in the economy, they typically get hit pretty hard.”

And when times are good, the money just pours in. It's called a 'business cycle'.


Sadly, Mr. Creutz' "analysis" is typical of today's Wall Street.

Gawd, I hate the mentality that makes it a crime for a business to actually invest in its business!

 

[lazyboy97o]

That has nothing to do with the attendance/how many people actually come into the park....

Crowding does not have a consistent, direct relationship with attendance. The whole base of numbers is wait times.

 

[Nubs70]

The only I speculated that was because the shape of the graph matches the data from Summer 2013 & 2014, just Higher.

I have every reason to believe that the touring plans data Is accurate. All parks are showing the same trend, especially DHS.

after June I started pulling my hair out, trying to make any sense of it. After July? It's just that this summer is that damn busy.

I really don't believe that it's MM+. Guessing it's a perfect storm of environmental factors - rebounded economy, frozen, brutal winter up north, etc. and disney's marketing department

I think it may be the psychological impact of single day pricing crossing the $100 threshold. Instead of locals or those nearby purchasing a single day ticket, they go for the 3 day ticket and visit 3 times over a 14 day period.

If someone has statistical software with CUSUM capability, it would be interesting to see if a 6 month/daily crowd level data set, 3 months prior/after price increase, single sample, produces an inflection point at the coinciding with single day ticket price crossing the $100 threshold..

 

[Goofyernmost]

MyMagic+ was also sold as being a means of increasing revenue.

Yes, but, that didn't necessarily mean increased merchandise sales, although, that might be part of it I think it would be a very small part of it. If anything it was to make staying in a Disney Resort Hotel a little more attractive because of the perks attached. (earlier reservation times for FP+ and ADR's, Magic Bands, etc. One night in the resort is a lot of stuffed Mickey's. They didn't spend 2 Billion to sell those items.

 

[doctornick]

MyMagic+ was also sold as being a means of increasing revenue.

True, but not via "time spent in restaurants and shops". The main ideas behind MM+ increasing revenue was by ease of purchasing (and it being "fun"), targeting marketing and increasing on property bookings. It long since been the case that anyone thinks that a shorter wait for a FP line would result in guests spending that time in a shop instead.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Yes, but, that didn't necessarily mean increased merchandise sales, although, that might be part of it I think it would be a very small part of it. If anything it was to make staying in a Disney Resort Hotel a little more attractive because of the perks attached. (earlier reservation times for FP+ and ADR's, Magic Bands, etc. One night in the resort is a lot of stuffed Mickey's. They didn't spend 2 Billion to sell those items.

True, but not via "time spent in restaurants and shops". The main ideas behind MM+ increasing revenue was by ease of purchasing (and it being "fun"), targeting marketing and increasing on property bookings. It long since been the case that anyone thinks that a shorter wait for a FP line would result in guests spending that time in a shop instead.

On-property rooms are already rather well booked up. There is little room for growth in that area without additional capacity.

Ease of purchasing increasing with time. It's a long used philosophy in malls and stores.

 

[Bairstow]

The main ideas behind MM+ increasing revenue was by ease of purchasing (and it being "fun")

Having observed some of my family members, the power of this feature to influence guest behavior should not be underestimated.

 

[John]

I think that MM+ was a little of what everyone has mentioned......the bottom line is that MM+ was to get you to spend more money.
Guest satisfaction experience? As long as you pay for it....sure.

 

[doctornick]

Having observed some of my family members, the power of this feature to influence guest behavior should not be underestimated.

While they aren't buying anything, I can tell you that my kids have an absolute blast doing "Mickey to Mickey". They go up to FP+ lines and touch it even when we don't have FP+ for a ride.

I can see there being a subconscious enjoyment that people get with paying with a MB and having the Mickey head turn green as opposed to doing something everyday and "ordinary" paying with cash or a credit card. Plus, it doesn't seem like really spending money since it is detached from the actual money spent -- similar to using a room key to pay, but probably a step beyond since using a plastic room key is similar to using a credit card physically while the MB is a wholly different experience.

I'm not trying to make this out to be something that causes individual people to spend hundreds of dollars extra but I could see small subconscious effects here and there that, in aggregate, might add up to significant revenue.

 

[PhotoDave219]

My favorite part:

“I don’t think it’s a great business,” said Doug Creutz, an analyst at Cowen and Company. “You’re always pouring money into them. It’s relatively low return. And when you have a downturn in the economy, they typically get hit pretty hard.”​

Let's see ...

"You’re always pouring money into them."

Heaven forbid, you actually have to invest in a business to realize a return.

"It’s relatively low return."

Universal's Theme Parks division saw a 33.4% operating margin for the first 6 months of the year. How friggin' big of a return do you want before you stop calling it "low"?

"And when you have a downturn in the economy, they typically get hit pretty hard.”

And when times are good, the money just pours in. It's called a 'business cycle'.


Sadly, Mr. Creutz' "analysis" is typical of today's Wall Street.

Gawd, I hate the mentality that makes it a crime for a business to actually invest in its business!

Sounds like he really doesn't know that much about the theme parks segments of Disney and Universal Parks.

Also... Profit is Profit.

 

[lazyboy97o]

While they aren't buying anything, I can tell you that my kids have an absolute blast doing "Mickey to Mickey". They go up to FP+ lines and touch it even when we don't have FP+ for a ride.

I can see there being a subconscious enjoyment that people get with paying with a MB and having the Mickey head turn green as opposed to doing something everyday and "ordinary" paying with cash or a credit card. Plus, it doesn't seem like really spending money since it is detached from the actual money spent -- similar to using a room key to pay, but probably a step beyond since using a plastic room key is similar to using a credit card physically while the MB is a wholly different experience.

I'm not trying to make this out to be something that causes individual people to spend hundreds of dollars extra but I could see small subconscious effects here and there that, in aggregate, might add up to significant revenue.

Removing the notion of cash being spent increasing sales is a well documented fact.