I've witnessed a LOT of wait inflation the past 2-3 years. ToT is a classic example where I've seen it listed at 30 minutes when no one is in the park and it winds up essentially being a walk-on. ... That's why wait times should only be one factor in determining how crowded a park really is. You just can't trust them much of the time.
You know, I'm suspecting more and more that "crowd steering/shaping" is multi-layered at WDW now with FP+ impacting what they are trying to shape in the Stand-by lines. The display signage updates at the rides is controlled by the swipe cards on the lanyards that they periodically provide to guests, so the updated information is not some "mistake" made by a Cast Member punching in the wrong numbers.
What I suspect is that the formula's for estimated wait times the display signage taps into also connects with Skynet, er... I mean MM+ so it can factor in the anticipated number of returning FP+ reservations in the next update time period for the display boards. If there are a high percentage of valid returning FP+ reservations outstanding, it likely factors in to the estimated impact to Standy-by. So, the seemingly ever increasing delta between actual wait times to anticipated wait times simply could be the continued problems is trying to control the masses with FP+. Since theoretically, all of the valid FP+ people could show up at the same time the Stand-by line would see a significant bump in wait if this happened. This perhaps is the buffer mechanism at play to factor in the anticipated return rate vs. the worst case scenario.
An additional possibility that I also think is at play, as it's always been a part of the high demand low capacity attractions expected Stand-by time reporting is the artificial inflation of the expected time in an effort to make someone not wait and go elsewhere. With FP+ now on most everything at the resort, the consequences of doing this now simply floods the streets more than ever.
I noticed on my June trip what appeared to be a "steering" initiative at the FP+ kiosk. This one seemed to discourage repeat visits to an attraction. We had already used our 3 pre-planned FP+ return times. At about 3:00 in the afternoon, I went to make a reservation for Splash Mountain (one of our earlier FP+ times was for Splash) and while waiting, I watched two groups in front of me make their reservations. One group at 2 people and one group had 3. Both sets of people had Splash pop up available for them with return times around 6:30. When I used our Band, Splash was missing from the list. I backed out of the transaction and tried again. It still wasn't an available selection. I called a CM over and told her and she said that it must be because of my group's size (there were just two of us) and that there weren't any times available. I mentioned the two previous groups had Splash as an option with return times at 6:30 (the park closed at 1:00 AM that night), so I doubted it being out of return times was the issue. She then swiped her RFID card, then my band and then Splash appeared with the expected 6:30ish return time. Very suspicious to say the least.
Bottom line result from all of this... don't trust signage boards 100%. You can't even always trust your eyes in observing how full a queue is as all it takes is a ride vehicle out of service to throw off that estimation.
