A Redistribution of [Wealth] Fastpass+

[George]

@Tom Morrow and @MichWolv - I'm OK with numbers myself, but there is one thing that renders a theoretical discussion of fastpass moot. Human behavior. It is a huge variable. Really, we'd have to get access to numbers from Disney to see the effect of fastpass on wait times, how people tour the parks, number of rides one gets on an attraction, etc. I don't think we'll ever be sure, though I have enjoyed and participated in many pro and con discussions of the old fastpass system. I also think the majority people enjoy having fastpasses even if they don't increase the efficiency with which we tour, so they are here to stay.

One thing that seemed to be more common at DL than WDW was the single rider line. This has to increase efficiency. My family got 8 rides in on RSR over the course of two days at DCA because we used the single rider line again and again. Plus, we actually got to race against each other at the end. I believe my son still knows our records.

 

[MichWolv]

@Tom Morrow and @MichWolv - I'm OK with numbers myself, but there is one thing that renders a theoretical discussion of fastpass moot. Human behavior. It is a huge variable. Really, we'd have to get access to numbers from Disney to see the effect of fastpass on wait times, how people tour the parks, number of rides one gets on an attraction, etc. I don't think we'll ever be sure, though I have enjoyed and participated in many pro and con discussions of the old fastpass system. I also think the majority people enjoy having fastpasses even if they don't increase the efficiency with which we tour, so they are here to stay.

One thing that seemed to be more common at DL than WDW was the single rider line. This has to increase efficiency. My family got 8 rides in on RSR over the course of two days at DCA because we used the single rider line again and again. Plus, we actually got to race against each other at the end. I believe my son still knows our records.

Quoted for vehement agreement. Single rider lines are a great invention. We used them at RSR as well. Got one set of FP's for my group of 6 that included a 3 year old. Rode three times, each time 4 of us in single rider and the 3 year old and an adult through FP. Did it again the next day. I've always thought that single rider lines should be at almost every attraction -- they are a great option for guests, but more importantly, they cause fewer empty seats on the attractions, a huge benefit for Disney.

 

[Rasvar]

Have u tried this personally? In fact, people r saying that now u can still get a FP for the TSMM and Soarin later in the day and it not be sold out until late in the evening, when before these rides would sell out by noon!

I think what happens is something like what happened to me. I had an early evening fastpass for Tower of Terror. I decided I wanted to park hop instead. I shifted to an earlier fastpass for another attraction so I could get a FP+ in the other park. So, as some people change plans, some previously taken slots will open up.

 

[Rasvar]

Quoted for vehement agreement. Single rider lines are a great invention. We used them at RSR as well. Got one set of FP's for my group of 6 that included a 3 year old. Rode three times, each time 4 of us in single rider and the 3 year old and an adult through FP. Did it again the next day. I've always thought that single rider lines should be at almost every attraction -- they are a great option for guests, but more importantly, they cause fewer empty seats on the attractions, a huge benefit for Disney.

You mean there is a way to ride RSR that isn't the single rider line? I guess that explains all those haggard people to the right of me in the queue all the time.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

I'm in favor of anything that stops the running of the bulls known as rope drop at HS where guests trampled each other to get to Toy Story. Or, does that still happen?

Yes, building more rides would help too but at least Disney is trying to improve the experience.

You'll want to steer clear of Tokyo Disneyland then.

... Which by the way I would take over WDW any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

 

[monothingie]

You're assuming that Fastpass accounts for half of the capacity of the ride. Its actually closer to 70, 80, even 90% when things get really backed up. So if a high demand ride has a 1,500 hourly capacity, somewhere around 1,125 (75%) of the riders will have come from Fastpass.

You can't look at it as just a slice of one hour. Let's say the system distributes 1,125 Fastpass for 3:00 to 4:00. In your explanation, only those Fastpass holders will enter the Fastpass queue during that hour. But what about 3:30 - 4:30? 3:35 - 4:35? etc. The result is people don't return in an even flow of equal to 75% of the ride's capacity for that hour, they return in a higher number that would ever physically be in front of you in the standby queue. To keep their Fastpass wait time to a minimum, the merge point ratio is increased to accommodate them. So now the standby line is moving slower than it would if only the 1,125 guests were returning. So it doesn't "even out", it becomes artificially inflated.
- the standby queues are not 50-75% physically full, they're generally the same physical length they always were. Only now with artificial inflation. So it's more like this:

View attachment 57501

Besides, the data is right in the link in the OP. The major attractions have less Fastpasses entering the Fastpass queue and are seeing a reduction in standby wait times, meanwhile rides that didn't previously have Fastpass are seeing an increase. It isn't because less people are also using the standby queue, because, like in the case of Soarin'/Test Track and only being able to have a Fastpass for one of them, more people are likely entering the standby queue than before.

Just anecdotal evidence, remember the queues at Splash before FP was introduced? On a busy day you had a 120 wait and both lines in the queue filled the entire area. With FP or FP+ the standby time really hasn't changed, but the queue length is dramatically shorter as evidenced by the large queue area that is no longer used and roped off. Space Mountain is another example of where they redesigned the internal queuing area to make it shorter. You can usually see this on older attractions that predated FP.

 

[Rasvar]

Justy anecdotal evidence, remember the queues at Splash before FP was introduced? On a busy day you had a 120 wait and both lines in the queue filled the entire area. With FP or FP+ the standby time really hasn't changed, but the queue length is dramatically shorter as evidenced by the large queue area that is no longer used and roped off. Space Mountain is another example of where they redesigned the internal queuing area to make it shorter. You can usually see this on older attractions that predated FP.

I wonder if I'm one of the few who remember when the area outside and to the right of the Space Mountain entrance was used as outdoor queue for SM? I have to admit that FP did help in this area. Some of the extended outdoor portions of the queues were just awful.

 

[MichWolv]

You'll want to steer clear of Tokyo Disneyland then.

... Which by the way I would take over WDW any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Crazy insane running of bulls when TDL and TDS open -- I agree. Interestingly, I think Tokyo Disney is home to my favorite and least favorite Disney parks. TDS is wonderfully original, beautiful to look at, full of imaginative and top quality attractions. TDL seems like a kid picked up models of Disney rides that already existed, messed with them a little, and dropped them into place with little thought. The attractions are fine, but the setting and visuals are terrible. Winnie the Pooh is the notable exception there -- one of the best attractions ever.

 

[natatomic]

Doesn't matter what percentage of people are FP, just adjust the numbers and they still work. The uneven return knocks down the time saved, but if we kill half of the time saved, it's still huge. Move the merge point or do anything else, you still have people riding who didn't wait in line and less empty seats overall throughout the day. Ergo, less waiting per attraction. Standby lines only get longer, overall, if people decide whether to enter a line based upon its physical length instead of it's length in time. Not gonna be the case.

Now, it may be that compared to original FP, people are riding their favorite attractions less because they can't FP them multiple times. But compared to no FP, either FP or FP+ will reduce waits overall. Between FP and FP+, it is possible, however, that waits at popular attractions are down because of less multiple rides, but since those attractions are still full all the time, the same number of people are riding. Meanwhile, less empty seats at other attractions means better use of assets.

In a way, you're almost proving the opposite of what you're trying to prove. You're saying that standby waits are less thanks to FP+, although we see that standby waits have increased for attractions that never had FPs to begin with. One reason FP+ supposedly is lessening standby lines is because fewer people are reriding (I.e, instead of Family A riding four times with paper FP and Family B riding only once because they could ONLY wait in the standby line due to all FP being distributed earlier, Family A is now riding only twice (once with FP+ and once in standby) and Family B is riding twice (once with FP+ and once in standby). Since family A rode less times, the line is now shorter due to the absence of their multiple rides. (Crude example, but you get my point, I hope)). But if you got rid if FP all together, both families would only ride once, more than likely, decreasing standby lines even more (though not enough for everyone to want - or be able - to ride twice. It's definitely a pendulum effect here, but it swings differently for every person and every family. Basically, your math makes sense, but I think psychology is playing a MUCH larger role here as to the results in actuality.

Simply put, there are just way too many variables to consider here to really know the impact that FP+ ALONE is having. Many attractions were keeping track of the wait times with GAC cards, and then with DAS cards to see the difference. I saw some of the numbers, and the difference in wait times were significantly less after the DAS came into play. Like, a ridiculous amount less. I'm talking an average of 20 minutes less during busy weeks. And that makes sense since no one is allowed unlimited entries through the FP queue. There really isn't much else to factor in on that instance.
Honestly, for all we know, the standby lines could actually greater due to FP+ (Compared to Legacy FP), but because the DAS reduces those wait times more than FP+ increases it, it still appears that FP+ is working (which is how Disney will spin it regardless since MDE cost so much). I don't think I actually the case, but again, there's just too many variables in play here to be able to pinpoint what is making the waits less.

(sorry if this was ramble-y or confusing, I tried to type this quickly my phone during my break)

 

[MichWolv]

(sorry if this was ramble-y or confusing, I tried to type this quickly my phone during my break)

I'm just impressed by that last comment. You are way more ambitious than I am when typing on a phone! And it came out rather coherent.

 

[flynnibus]

Doesn't matter what percentage of people are FP, just adjust the numbers and they still work

You will never convince him because the pundits can not (or refuse) to look at FP as a whole vs their individual slice in time. They see it as 'people in front of ME right now' and can not step back and understand the interaction at large. You're spot on... detractors just can't accept the larger system interaction.

It's why the are upset that IASW wait is up... yet can't appreciate a delta somewhere else. They focus on one slice of time.. the same reason they focus on things like 'how physically long' a line is vs looking at wait times, etc.

And they will never appreciate better utilization of attraction capacity because that means 'my wait is longer!' vs walk on they had before. It's about what they value..

 

[flynnibus]

@Tom Morrow and @MichWolv - I'm OK with numbers myself, but there is one thing that renders a theoretical discussion of fastpass moot. Human behavior. It is a huge variable

It is.. and why arguments like 'If there were no FP, wait times would be in half!' or similar are stupid. If people are willing to wait 45mins for a ride... they will be willing to wait 45mins! So if the line is 15mins long, people will get in line until the wait is 45mins long. When there is excess demand, the queues are regulated by wait tolerance, not ride capacity, FP, etc.

Wait tolerance is a huge factor in resulting wait times. And tolerance for wait is part of a feedback loop, making it even more complex to model.

People are too fixated on numbers in isolation and have a hard time appreciating things in aggregate, like how many rides you experience, etc. I really don't care if I wait 5 more minutes at IASW if I saved 10mins somewhere else. But many have a hard time seeing it that way.

One thing that seemed to be more common at DL than WDW was the single rider line. This has to increase efficiency. My family got 8 rides in on RSR over the course of two days at DCA because we used the single rider line again and again. Plus, we actually got to race against each other at the end. I believe my son still knows our records.

It really depends on the attraction and the ops strategy for loading. Some designs it works very well, others its kind of redundant and can be replaced with better load strategies.

 

[WildcatDen]

So, just like the old system.

With less running

 

[sublimesting]

Old Fastpass is all gone and most of the machines are removed already.

Where do we get our additional FP now after we have used the first three FP+? I thought they were changing it so you can get more than 3 after you use your first three///and park hop too.

 

[cw1982]

Where do we get our additional FP now after we have used the first three FP+? I thought they were changing it so you can get more than 3 after you use your first three///and park hop too.

You have to visit kiosks in the parks to add your extra. You can park hop, but you have to get to the second park to use its kiosks if you used fp in the first park.

 

[Tom Morrow]

You will never convince him because the pundits can not (or refuse) to look at FP as a whole vs their individual slice in time. They see it as 'people in front of ME right now' and can not step back and understand the interaction at large. You're spot on... detractors just can't accept the larger system interaction.

Except focusing on your individual slice of time is exactly why his explanation doesn't quite work. Yes, in theory and on paper you can explain Fastpass in a way that it evens out the standby wait time and doesn't artificially inflate it - but as stated, there are many, many variables to factor in and it does not play out in real life the way the numbers show on paper. If the system perfectly balanced the standby wait time, the FP/standby merge ratio would never have to increase from it's 1:4 standard, but they do, frequently, often for hours at a time. If one gets in a standby line posted at 45 minutes, and while in line a massive surge of Fastpasses show up (which also happens frequently especially after downtimes), and they spend 30 minutes doing a 1:10 standby:FP merge ratio, that wait time is no longer 45 minutes, its now artificially increased.

I know I'm not going to change your mind though.

 

[flynnibus]

Except focusing on your individual slice of time is exactly why his explanation doesn't quite work

*facepalm* The whole point is the individual slice of time is not representative of the whole and not of point of reference that matters.

If the system perfectly balanced the standby wait time, the FP/standby merge ratio would never have to increase from it's 1:4 standard, but they do, frequently, often for hours at a time

Surges do not invalidate the model - they are variations that average out. Just like there is a surge, there are also lulls. The enforcement of the return time was critical to keep the system from clogging up entirely due to uneven returns.

You are pointing at a dot outside the line on the graph and going 'ha! see it doesn't work!' - when the people analyzing the whole system understand it's not a finite line you track, but an approximation with variances. Statistical results are usually ranges, not finite points.

I know I'm not going to change your mind though.

Not without a valid case.. no.

 

[George]

Just anecdotal evidence, remember the queues at Splash before FP was introduced? On a busy day you had a 120 wait and both lines in the queue filled the entire area. With FP or FP+ the standby time really hasn't changed, but the queue length is dramatically shorter as evidenced by the large queue area that is no longer used and roped off. Space Mountain is another example of where they redesigned the internal queuing area to make it shorter. You can usually see this on older attractions that predated FP.

In my experience, there are longer waits at the low times and less waits at the busy times since the introduction of fastpass. I've only gone twice since the introduction of fastpass plus (October, it was partially rolled out and June), so I don't have much of an opinion yet, except I agree with general thought that the less popular attractions have a bit longer waits and the more popular seem to have waits that are a bit shorter in the standby lines. I'm not sure that my family tours more efficiently with fastpass or if we tour less efficiently, but it has made things easier. Let me explain. Take your 120 minute wait example. No way would I do that. However, if you kept going back to an attraction, you would find that there would be an ebb and flow to wait times, so if you kept checking, you would find that the wait might be 30 or 45 minutes at some other point. I haven't had to do that in years. With fastpass plus, you don't even have to go to the attraction at all to get a fastpass. Plus, wait times don't vary as much with fastpass (either type) and everyone is accessing them on smart phones anyway, so walking all over to check on times is no longer a good strategy. For many, Disney is a high impact vacation and less walking is a huge savings. There are advantages to the new system. Admittedly, I don't think I'll ever have a day like I did on a spring break several years ago, when I got 6 BTMRR rides in with my daughter using the old system.

One other thought. I talk to people on vacation and I know a lot more people are using the new system than the old. I think standby waits have gone up a bit in the morning, but in the evening they seem to have gone down (based on the week I just spent at the world in June). I think a lot of people are knocking rides out with the new system and after dinner they are doing something else. This might cause a change in touring strategies/advice.

 

[natatomic]

At the end of the day, I think we can all agree that no matter the type of line skipping service (or lack thereof), the rides can still only hold a finite number of guests. Therefor, if you are riding a ride more often under system X compared to system Y, then you are doing it at someone else's expense. Conversely, if you are riding a ride fewer times under system Y compared to system X, then that gives someone else a chance to ride in your place. The system you prefer is totally dependent on which person you are on those scenarios.

 

[IlikeDW]

At the end of the day, I think we can all agree that no matter the type of line skipping service (or lack thereof), the rides can still only hold a finite number of guests. Therefor, if you are riding a ride more often under system X compared to system Y, then you are doing it at someone else's expense. Conversely, if you are riding a ride fewer times under system Y compared to system X, then that gives someone else a chance to ride in your place. The system you prefer is totally dependent on which person you are on those scenarios.

perfect way to break it down. my example. We spent 10 days in orlando this month and were able to do things we never could before. Example; spent the morning riding forbidden journey, spent afternoon at the pool and then had fast passes for TSMM and Star Tours and Fantasmic dinner reservations at brown derby, all those were made the day prior btw not months in advance. Previously I would have had to be at the studios by 11:00 am to have a reasonable chance at getting a fast pass let alone not have it clash with my dinner reservation time. On a different day we decided to do an extra evening at the MK so I got FP+ for Peter Pan, Pooh and BTMR all for the next evening so we stayed at the pool in the morning and were able to go to MK in the evening spend about 45 min in standby for Mine train and use our FP's as well as watch wishes and the second showing of celebrate and standby mansion and pirates after the second celebrate. So for us the ability to cherry pick what we wanted to do in a day was well worth the trade off as we never were the ones to run from FP to FP to maximize use. This also let me maximize the "cheap" extra day on both my Universal 4 day and Disney 5 day ticket which in the past would go wasted because we would have to choose one or the other.