Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[Rider]

Serious question... suppose a successful vaccine is not found and antibody levels in those who have had COVID-19 are low enough that they don't prevent re-infection. So there would never, in that scenario, be herd immunity. What then? Do we permanently adjust our way of life to protect against COVID-19? Or do we, at some point, say that regardless of the outcome we go back to normal? It's a serious question I'm asking. I'm not using a question to try to make a point. I'd be interested in your thoughts.

It could turn into a regular desease like the flu or cold. Just more serious and apparently without seasonality. Most people would get it and either not know or just be sick for a week or two. What would really suck is if the people who got sick enough to require hospitalization had to go through that every year. Imagine a life where you could end up in the ICU on a ventilator for a month once or twice a year. Never knowing when or if this would be the time you don't make it.

Of course that assumes the virus doesn't mutate in some way. Mutation could make it better or worse.

 

[El Grupo]

Much more evidence that cases are being coded Covid deaths that are not really Covid deaths but death while having Covid, covid not being the cause.

I have heard much more surmising toward the opposite (underreporting in multiple states). I’d seriously appreciate seeing supporting evidence to the contrary.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I have heard much more surmising toward the opposite (underreporting in multiple states). I’d seriously appreciate seeing supporting evidence to the contrary.

Oh, no. Roll the tape of conflicting reports.

 

[havoc315]

Much more evidence that cases are being coded Covid deaths that are not really Covid deaths but death while having Covid, covid not being the cause.

That's truly nonsense. Sure, if someone gets hit by a car while they have Covid, it's not really a Covid death.
But if someone is in the ICU with Covid and they die -- it absolutely is a Covid death.

Mind you -- Nobody dies of "cancer" or "AIDS" etc -- They die from the organ failure, cardiac arrest, etc -- caused by Cancer and AIDs, etc.
So when someone with Covid dies from cardiac arrest -- Covid is the underlying cause.
There aren't droves of people dying who just happen to coincidentally have asymptomatic COVID.

Putting it another way -- if a particular state has an average of 7,000 deaths every June, with a range over the last 10 years of 6500-7500.... But in 2020, they had 10,000 deaths. The "official" numbers are, for example, 1500 Covid deaths.
So 3,000 deaths over the average.... Only 1,500 are due to confirmed Covid infections. So you think the 1,500 is too high??
So just coincidentally --- far more people are dying than average.... but it has nothing to do with Covid??

No statistician or epidemiologist would agree with that hypothesis.

 

[Surfin' Tuna]

This thread could use some positivity: Cast preview today with the highlight being no ECVs! Masks aren't as bad in the heat as I worried they would be (still not great, though). Not hearing the park-wide PA announcements I had feared, but there are a lot in the queues. Splash is open and set up for fastpass moving forward with plexi between lines at the merge and markings for social distancing.

 

[schuelma]

This thread could use some positivity: Cast preview today with the highlight being no ECVs! Masks aren't as bad in the heat as I worried they would be (still not great, though). Not hearing the park-wide PA announcements I had feared, but there are a lot in the queues. Splash is open and set up for fastpass moving forward with plexi between lines at the merge and markings for social distancing.

I genuinely hope things work out. We have a trip planned in November that I really really want to be able to keep. Do not take my own negativity at the state of things as a reflection of me hoping things do not go well. Good luck with everything!

 

[Jrb1979]

This thread could use some positivity: Cast preview today with the highlight being no ECVs! Masks aren't as bad in the heat as I worried they would be (still not great, though). Not hearing the park-wide PA announcements I had feared, but there are a lot in the queues. Splash is open and set up for fastpass moving forward with plexi between lines at the merge and markings for social distancing.

The fastpass that you will have to pay when it comes back.

 

[havoc315]

I have first hand knowledge of the overcounting of Covid deaths in my County and town. I have a friend who works in the county, and she has told me about death certificates that make no sense. Drug OD w/Covid. Heart Attack w/covid. Car accident w/covid. The chief of a local police department stormed into the county offices to demand an explanation for what the hell was going on. Why was every death being marked "Covid". Now, is there enough of this to make a meaningful dent in the overall numbers? I don't know.

It does make me tend to label the counting as "miscounted" more then anything else though.

Your friend is making it up or mis-communicated or misunderstood what she is reading. I read hospital records and death certificates for a living.
No death certificate would ever state "Heart attack" -- It would list "myocardial infarction" or "cardiac arrest" --- It would list "cardiac arrest secondary to Covid" --- Because most deaths are ultimately caused by cardiac arrest. AIDS, cancer, infection -- they don't cause the death. They all cause the organ failures that lead to the cardiac arrest that cause the death.

Now, death certificates will list other contributing causes of death. So an autopsy would list incidental positives -- such as a car accident where the victim incidentally was Covid positive. But those aren't being listed as Covid deaths.

The surest confirmation is looking at average deaths -- Do you think there has been a 500% sudden spike in car accidents?? Or... is the most likely reason for the huge massive increase in 2020 deaths due to Covid?

 

[Parker in NYC]

Your friend is making it up or mis-communicated or misunderstood what she is reading. I read hospital records and death certificates for a living.
No death certificate would ever state "Heart attack" -- It would list "myocardial infarction" or "cardiac arrest" --- It would list "cardiac arrest secondary to Covid" --- Because most deaths are ultimately caused by cardiac arrest. AIDS, cancer, infection -- they don't cause the death. They all cause the organ failures that lead to the cardiac arrest that cause the death.

Now, death certificates will list other contributing causes of death. So an autopsy would list incidental positives -- such as a car accident where the victim incidentally was Covid positive. But those aren't being listed as Covid deaths.

The surest confirmation is looking at average deaths -- Do you think there has been a 500% sudden spike in car accidents?? Or... is the most likely reason for the huge massive increase in 2020 deaths due to Covid?

Havoc, I appreciate what you're doing but you have to understand - people. are. not. getting. the. message. And if they haven't yet, they won't until it shows up on their doorstep. And even that's probably a bridge too far. But that's the way of the U.S. And Brazil. To name a few. One could say that those Brazilian tour groups people love to rag on are now our brethren.

 

[El Grupo]

This thread could use some positivity: Cast preview today with the highlight being no ECVs! Masks aren't as bad in the heat as I worried they would be (still not great, though). Not hearing the park-wide PA announcements I had feared, but there are a lot in the queues. Splash is open and set up for fastpass moving forward with plexi between lines at the merge and markings for social distancing.

Regarding masks and the heat, I was out much of yesterday here in AZ with the temperature topping out at 115. It was surprisingly not as bad in a mask as I expected. Granted, we don’t have the humidity. But, after you reach 110, and you’re standing on pavement, it‘s just another version of Hades.

 

[havoc315]

I agree. Older kids can be taught to respect social distancing. I don't see it happening when the bell rings, though. Too many kids, teachers, aides, etc getting from room to room in 4 minutes. Locker use would be an issue, too.
My kids' district did a survey to check and see how many parents will provide transportation for their kids to cut down on bus use. They're hoping most will be driven privately.

I saw up-close the real-life problem, as my town made front page news in the region. I'm in New York. We largely have the virus under control. My high school held a graduation ceremony, which was supposed to be run like a drive-in movie. All families were suppose to stay in their cars, while graduation ceremony was carried out on a big screen, with fireworks, etc.
The high school seniors treated it like a tailgate.. getting out of their cars and socializing. 2 students had recently returned from Florida bringing infection with them -- they spread it to 19 students during the graduation events.

So yes, older students *should* have the maturity to understand social distancing. But it's going to be difficult in real world practice.
If 2 positive infections could lead to 19 positive infections in one night of outdoor school events -- it really makes me apprehensive about how you manage schools.

 

[havoc315]

Havoc, I appreciate what you're doing but you have to understand - people. are. not. getting. the. message. And if they haven't yet, they won't until it shows up on their doorstep. And even that's probably a bridge too far. But that's the way of the U.S. And Brazil. To name a few. One could say that those Brazilian tour groups people love to rag on are now our brethren.

It's quite sad that so many people choose to ignore the science and the data... instead looking at it as political, looking to force explanations to conform to their political beliefs. This isn't just true of people on "one side." There are people on all political sides who are looking at the data and science with extreme bias. (Those who somehow claim that BLM protests weren't Covid-dangerous, but Trump rally is Covid-danger, as an example).

What we need to appreciate: The mainstream experts are not idiots, they do know more than laypeople. But those very experts will freely admit there is still a lot they don't know, there is wide variance in possible outcomes.

 

[mickeymiss]

This thread could use some positivity: Cast preview today with the highlight being no ECVs! Masks aren't as bad in the heat as I worried they would be (still not great, though). Not hearing the park-wide PA announcements I had feared, but there are a lot in the queues. Splash is open and set up for fastpass moving forward with plexi between lines at the merge and markings for social distancing.

I'll be so interested to hear how this first week goes! What do you mean by splash mountain fast pass? Sorry I'm not caught up here.

 

[legwand77]

From the CDC guidance, they don't even need a positive test in some cases

Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

I don't think it is significant either way though. It is the same way they code flu deaths. Deaths are declining nationwide. We won't know for sure until the end of the year and then can look back at all cause deaths. Most pandemic death rates are downgraded in retrospect due to this.

 

[jinx8402]

I'll be so interested to hear how this first week goes! What do you mean by splash mountain fast pass? Sorry I'm not caught up here.

I'm assuming the fp queue will be used for DAS and rider swap until FP comes back

 

[mickeymiss]

I'm assuming the fp queue will be used for DAS and rider swap until FP comes back

What's DAS? Sorry

 

[jinx8402]

What's DAS? Sorry

Disability access service

 

[Disney4family]

I saw up-close the real-life problem, as my town made front page news in the region. I'm in New York. We largely have the virus under control. My high school held a graduation ceremony, which was supposed to be run like a drive-in movie. All families were suppose to stay in their cars, while graduation ceremony was carried out on a big screen, with fireworks, etc.
The high school seniors treated it like a tailgate.. getting out of their cars and socializing. 2 students had recently returned from Florida bringing infection with them -- they spread it to 19 students during the graduation events.

So yes, older students *should* have the maturity to understand social distancing. But it's going to be difficult in real world practice.
If 2 positive infections could lead to 19 positive infections in one night of outdoor school events -- it really makes me apprehensive about how you manage schools.

I'm on Long Island. We heard about your problem. Sorry that happened.
My daughter's high school graduation was rescheduled for the end of July. Hopefully it'll work out. They're planning on spacing out the kids on the football field.

 

[Miss Bella]

Always important to watch the hospitalizations levels, but it has happened before. Florida has had many 20-40 hospitals at 0% percent capacity for a day or so over the past month. Nothing really new reported in that tweet. Overall they did tick up a bit over on Monday, most likely from elective surgeries coming off the weekend. But always good to monitor it.

Hospitals like the Palm Beach Gardens Medical Center in Florida are being inundated with new patients and medicine to treat the flu is becoming harder to find. Beds are even being set up in conference rooms to accommodate all the new patients

2 young mothers among latest flu victims as hospitals struggle with patient influx

One Florida hospital is so overwhelmed, beds are being set up in conference rooms to accommodate new patients

www.cbsnews.com

Hospitals across the state are sending away ambulances, flying in nurses from out of state and not letting children visit their loved ones for fear they’ll spread the flu. Others are canceling surgeries and erecting tents in their parking lots so they can triage the hordes of flu patients.

California hospitals face a 'war zone' of flu patients — and are setting up tents to treat them

California hospitals have had to scramble for more space and staff to keep up with the high numbers of patients showing up in the ER sick with a deadly strain of the flu.

www.latimes.com

I remember the flu apocalypse of 2018. It was a lot worse than what we're experiencing now.

 

[havoc315]

From the CDC guidance, they don't even need a positive test in some cases

Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

I don't think it is significant either way though. It is the same way they code flu deaths. Deaths are declining nationwide. We won't know for sure until the end of the year and then can look back at all cause deaths. Most pandemic death rates are downgraded in retrospect due to this.

You are partially right.

Let me give you an example of a doctor I know: He worked in an ER during the height of Covid. He then got sick, cough, fever, couldn't breathe, lost his taste buds. All of the symptoms of Covid. He died at home, and never had a Covid test.
Is there any doubt he died from Covid? Not really. But his death was NOT counted in the Covid deaths at the time.

In the end, mathematical models will be used to study the true number of deaths. I completely agree the numbers will be revised in retrospect. But in most cases (if not all cases), the numbers of death will be increased dramatically. We are missing lots of deaths.

Now, the number of actual infections will also be increased dramatically... already seeing it.... so the death *rate* may indeed be downgraded. But the total number of deaths will be increased significantly.