Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[carolina_yankee]

Here's the Florida Dashboard with hospital census for total beds and ICU beds for adults and peds:

Workbook: Public

There are indeed a lot of hospitals without ICU capacity but no county has zero capacity. Kinda sucks for you if you need ICU and end up at the wrong hospital. Ambulances know where to go, but what if you are driven in? Yeah, yeah, hospitals have plans, etc., but if numbers are rising, the problems become more acute.

I remember checking hospital divert status in NJ at the peak since our local hospital was often on divert and the next closest one was 40 minutes away, which also was often on divert . . . .

At some point, if numbers are rising, and hospitalizations are rising, things will get tighter until hospitalizations and cases start declining.

 

[Touchdown]

It’s very easy to tell when hospitals are stressed and can’t handle more patients: if they cancel elective procedures. That’s how they make money, so when those are canceled it’s butt clenching time.

 

[Lilofan]

It’s very easy to tell when hospitals are stressed and can’t handle more patients: if they cancel elective procedures. That’s how they make money, so when those are canceled it’s butt clenching time.

I've heard of medical staff being laid off when elective procedures which is a big money maker doesn't happen ( ie Mayo Clinic ).

 

[Touchdown]

I've heard of medical staff being laid off when elective procedures which is a big money maker doesn't happen ( ie Mayo Clinic ).

Yup, medical admissions do not pay the bills, hospitals lose money on them, especially if those admissions are >3 days (Covid is 2-6 week admission on average I believe.)

This pandemic may very well cause rural hospitals to go bankrupt, but that’s another discussion. The big point is, if hospitals suspend elective procedures it’s only because Covid has a proverbial gun pressed up against their skulls. Last time I checked Miami-Dade, Houston, Phoenix, and rural hospitals throughout the South have taken this drastic step that is against their financial interests because they see no other option.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Yup, medical admissions do not pay the bills, hospitals lose money on them, especially if those admissions are >3 days (Covid is 2-6 week admission on average I believe.)

This pandemic may very well cause rural hospitals to go bankrupt, but that’s another discussion. The big point is, if hospitals suspend elective procedures it’s only because Covid has a proverbial gun pressed up against their skulls. Last time I checked Miami-Dade, Houston, Phoenix, and rural hospitals throughout the South have taken this drastic step that is against their financial interests because they see no other option.

The small rural hospital I work for has only seen two COVID admits since this began, but because we had to shut everything else down for more than two months, we went several million into the red. No joint replacements, no cataract surgeries, only medical, OB and emergency surgery admits. I don't think any staff were cut, but salaries and 401K matches definitely were.

We've mostly gone back to a normal level of operations now, so at least for the time, our finances look better (and some state aid helped). But its going to hit particularly hard if we are forced to shut down again.

PS: Please stay out of northern Vermont until this is over!

 

[havoc315]

That may work in an elementary school where "specials" teachers (art, music, etc.) can go to each classroom. Phys ed could be a problem since most phys ed classes are two "regular" classes combined for one teacher even at the elem level.
I can't see it work in a secondary school. Middle school and high school students take specialized classes that require specialized equipment and materials that cannot be transported. It would be interesting to see teachers transport the entire earth science lab or AP chem lab from classroom to classroom.
Also, a lot of classes are combined grades. At the high school level, AP classes could have 10th, 11th and 12th graders. It would be impossible to have special "wings" of just one grade level.
How do we handle chorus or band with 200 kids? My son's band director said that due to studies of instruments, air and disease spreading, he can only have practice outside. It'll be interesting to see them rehearse for the winter concert outside in the snow.
My admin has no info for us with regards to the start of school. The only thing we've been told is that they've decided to change the online platform we could use (so kids won't even know what to do to try to learn if we're still remote). Smart, huh?

Conversely, high school and older students can be taught to respect social distancing, mask wearing, etc. (Doesn't mean teens will listen, but they at least have the capability). Good luck telling younger kids to stay 6 feet away from each other.

Things like chorus simply can't happen. At least not a big chorus. Good bye assemblies. Phys Ed limited to outdoors, distanced, non-contact activities.
As for regular classes... limiting class size, using the largest possible rooms. Limit cross-grade mixing.

Maybe the hardest aspect is transportation for areas that rely heavily on busing. I guess strongly encourage drop-offs, increase the number of buses with fewer kids per bus.

No matter what, it's going to be a real challenge.

Look at it this way, if Harvard and Princeton don't think they can keep their full student body safe, what are the odds of Valley Elementary School really being able to keep everyone safe?

With infection numbers exploding in early July... what are the chances of infections being low enough in late August, whereby hundreds or thousands of students will be entering a school building... what are the odds that you can avoid any infected individuals from entering the school?

 

[oceanbreeze77]

YIKES THE POSITIVITY RATE

 

[Mark52479]

YIKES THE POSITIVITY RATE
View attachment 481978

Since florida tests are delayed about 7-10 days the next couple of days we are going to be seeing the results from the Holiday weekend. The lower test amounts and higher positivity results

 

[Jrb1979]

How high does it have to go before people will admit it's a problem?

 

[oceanbreeze77]

How high does it have to go before people will admit it's a problem?

100!

 

[legwand77]

Always important to watch the hospitalizations levels, but it has happened before. Florida has had many 20-40 hospitals at 0% percent capacity for a day or so over the past month. Nothing really new reported in that tweet. Overall they did tick up a bit over on Monday, most likely from elective surgeries coming off the weekend. But always good to monitor it.

Hospitals like the Palm Beach Gardens Medical Center in Florida are being inundated with new patients and medicine to treat the flu is becoming harder to find. Beds are even being set up in conference rooms to accommodate all the new patients

2 young mothers among latest flu victims as hospitals struggle with patient influx

One Florida hospital is so overwhelmed, beds are being set up in conference rooms to accommodate new patients

www.cbsnews.com

Hospitals across the state are sending away ambulances, flying in nurses from out of state and not letting children visit their loved ones for fear they’ll spread the flu. Others are canceling surgeries and erecting tents in their parking lots so they can triage the hordes of flu patients.

California hospitals face a 'war zone' of flu patients — and are setting up tents to treat them

California hospitals have had to scramble for more space and staff to keep up with the high numbers of patients showing up in the ER sick with a deadly strain of the flu.

www.latimes.com

 

[havoc315]

Here's the Florida Dashboard with hospital census for total beds and ICU beds for adults and peds:

Workbook: Public

There are indeed a lot of hospitals without ICU capacity but no county has zero capacity. Kinda sucks for you if you need ICU and end up at the wrong hospital. Ambulances know where to go, but what if you are driven in? Yeah, yeah, hospitals have plans, etc., but if numbers are rising, the problems become more acute.

I remember checking hospital divert status in NJ at the peak since our local hospital was often on divert and the next closest one was 40 minutes away, which also was often on divert . . . .

At some point, if numbers are rising, and hospitalizations are rising, things will get tighter until hospitalizations and cases start declining.

Very accurate.
Things to keep in mind: ICU "bed capacity" can be misleading. You can typically add beds. But you start stretching the staff and equipment, where patients may have beds, but can't get optimal care.
A good perspective -- New York required 30% ICU bed availability in order to re-open. I'd personally be worried about any region with under 20% capacity. for a couple of reasons: 1 -- Most ICUs are not built to be run at 80%+ capacity on a continuing basis (as above, you start to stretch the staffing and equipment). But more critically 2-- at 80%+ capacity, you have little wiggle room for a further surge.

 

[marni1971]

How high does it have to go before people will admit it's a problem?

Some never will.

 

[xdan0920]

How high does it have to go before people will admit it's a problem?

Just wait two more weeks.

 

[havoc315]

YIKES THE POSITIVITY RATE
View attachment 481978

This is a bit difference than the numbers I've seen reported? Not sure why the difference... but assuming these stats are the most accurate...

There is both good and bad news here:
The bad: The positivity rate and number of infections are dangerously high.
The good: It appears to represent a peak. At least according to these numbers, there hasn't been much geometric growth in the last couple of weeks. So the curve has been re-flattened.... but flat at a dangerously high rate.

I wish Florida did a better job of releasing hospitalization data.
Hospitalizations are WAY up throughout the South... what are the odds isn't not way up in Florida?

 

[legwand77]

This is a bit difference than the numbers I've seen reported? Not sure why the difference... but assuming these stats are the most accurate...

There is both good and bad news here:
The bad: The positivity rate and number of infections are dangerously high.
The good: It appears to represent a peak. At least according to these numbers, there hasn't been much geometric growth in the last couple of weeks. So the curve has been re-flattened.... but flat at a dangerously high rate.

I wish Florida did a better job of releasing hospitalization data.
Hospitalizations are WAY up throughout the South... what are the odds isn't not way up in Florida?

View attachment 481985

What do you mean, better job in releasing data in Florida, the state releases hospitalizations numbers update multiple time throughout the day, currently showing state wide 20% capacity in general and 16% in icu (33% in peds ICU) and this does not even included and surge bed availability.

 

[Jrb1979]

I guess as long as Disney is open so they can have their magic back it's all OK. My fear is its going to spread back to the places that have kept cases low and we will back to where we started.

 

[havoc315]

Just wait two more weeks.

Maybe, maybe not.
It's hard to predict the course the disease will take. A mix of factors are affecting the amount of mortality we see. On top of that, Florida isn't being totally transparent about their data. It's very hard to judge the accuracy of Florida data right now. I'm not going to accuse the state of suppressing data, but I wouldn't be shocked if months from now, on a Friday afternoon, the state quietly corrects their past data... "Upon further analysis, we are revising our total deaths from Covid from 4,000 to 12,000." Not saying I expect it -- just saying I wouldn't be shocked.

Considering the level of infection, Florida's mortality numbers are looking a bit suspiciously low.

Let's assume death is correlated with hospitalization. Increasing serious cases will increase rates of hospitalization and death rates in a similar manner.
So let's compare a few states seeing similar infection increases as Florida:

Below we see a comparison of several sunbelt states: They all have significantly increased hospitalization along with their increases in infections. But Florida doesn't report its Covid hospitalizations...... What are the odds their graph is really any different than the other sun belt states?

 

[havoc315]

What do you mean, better job in releasing data in Florida, the state releases hospitalizations numbers update multiple time throughout the day, currently showing state wide 20% capacity in general and 16% in icu (33% in peds ICU) and this does not even included and surge bed availability.

They don't break down the Covid hospitalizations like 47 other states do. Be careful about "surge" capacity, it can be misleading. You can "surge" with more beds, but you start to really spread doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, equipment, very very thin. As you stress the system, it gets harder and harder to deliver optimal care.

 

[xdan0920]

Considering the level of infection, Florida's mortality numbers are looking a bit suspiciously low.

You could also look at this the opposite way. Mortality numbers make the case load seem suspiciously high.

People are dead, or not dead, hard to fudge that too much. But cases, or probable cases, or duplicate cases, or false positives, pretty easy to get wrong.

I am not saying this is what is happening, just pointing out the other side.