Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[xdan0920]

Considering the level of infection, Florida's mortality numbers are looking a bit suspiciously low.

You could also look at this the opposite way. Mortality numbers make the case load seem suspiciously high.

People are dead, or not dead, hard to fudge that too much. But cases, or probable cases, or duplicate cases, or false positives, pretty easy to get wrong.

I am not saying this is what is happening, just pointing out the other side.

 

[xdan0920]

I guess as long as Disney is open so they can have their magic back it's all OK. My fear is its going to spread back to the places that have kept cases low and we will back to where we started.

Covid is not going to come and get you Jrb, maybe log off the world wide web for a bit and get some fresh air. It'll be okay.

 

[legwand77]

They don't break down the Covid hospitalizations like 47 other states do. Be careful about "surge" capacity, it can be misleading. You can "surge" with more beds, but you start to really spread doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, equipment, very very thin. As you stress the system, it gets harder and harder to deliver optimal care.

Yes I see now what you meant Covid Hospitalizations, some counties like Pinellas breaks that out , but not statewide.

 

[Jrb1979]

Covid is not going to come and get you Jrb, maybe log of the world wide web for a bit and get some fresh air. It'll be okay.

I am living my life. I'm not in fear either. Where I live we only had 150 new cases yesterday. I feel safe going out and doing things. Even theme parks here if they were open. Now if I was in Florida I would be wearing a mask and staying away from as many people as possible. The most I would be going out to do is getting groceries.

 

[DisneyCane]

YIKES THE POSITIVITY RATE
View attachment 481978

I didn't notice until today but apparently beginning with the 7/2 report (according to one of the NBC affiliates in Florida), positive antibody tests have been included in the "new case" total. No available breakdown on the contribution from them but if you look carefully the text says "the number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time."

 

[havoc315]

You could also look at this the opposite way. Mortality numbers make the case load seem suspiciously high.

People are dead, or not dead, hard to fudge that too much. But cases, or probable cases, or duplicate cases, or false positives, pretty easy to get wrong.

I am not saying this is what is happening, just pointing out the other side.

It's very very easy to fudge deaths. List is as "pneumonia" or "flu" ..... refuse to let numbers get publicly released until double confirmed...
The surest confirmation of death numbers will be in retrospect -- looking at the average annual number of deaths, and how far above the average were the totals for the year. Based on this method, we already know there was significant under-counting of deaths nationwide in the early months of the epidemic. (Nationwide).

Sure, on the test results... you can get a few false positives and duplicates, but that would amount to a rounding error. Not being off by multiples.

Considering what we are seeing through the rest of the sun belt... there is no reason to believe Florida should be behaving differently.

 

[havoc315]

I didn't notice until today but apparently beginning with the 7/2 report (according to one of the NBC affiliates in Florida), positive antibody tests have been included in the "new case" total. No available breakdown on the contribution from them but if you look carefully the text says "the number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time."

Yes, that can cause the data to be misleading. BUT, the antigen-positive rate is under 5%.... so including the rate might artificially inflate the total number of cases (they aren't all "new") but it actually would bring down the overall positivity rate. (If PCR tests are showing a 20% positivity rate and the antigen tests are showing a 5% positivity rate, then including the antigen testing brings down the overall positivity rate).

 

[Heppenheimer]

I didn't notice until today but apparently beginning with the 7/2 report (according to one of the NBC affiliates in Florida), positive antibody tests have been included in the "new case" total. No available breakdown on the contribution from them but if you look carefully the text says "the number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time."

Antigen and antibody tests are two different things.

 

[Mark52479]

Antigen and antibody tests are two different things.

Palm Beach this morning confirmed a "positive antibody" is included as a new positive case.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I didn't notice until today but apparently beginning with the 7/2 report (according to one of the NBC affiliates in Florida), positive antibody tests have been included in the "new case" total. No available breakdown on the contribution from them but if you look carefully the text says "the number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time."

"These diagnostic tests"

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes First Antigen Test to Help in the Rapid Detection of the Virus that Causes COVID-19 in Patients

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has issued the first emergency use authorization (EUA) for a COVID-19 antigen test, a new category of tests for use in the

www.fda.gov

 

[Heppenheimer]

"These diagnostic tests"

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes First Antigen Test to Help in the Rapid Detection of the Virus that Causes COVID-19 in Patients

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has issued the first emergency use authorization (EUA) for a COVID-19 antigen test, a new category of tests for use in the

www.fda.gov

Looks like the main advantage of the antigen test is that you get results very quickly (sounds like the rapid strep test), but the sensitivity appears to be even lower than the PCR test. So, probably a less clinically useful test for screening the general population.

 

[Tom P.]

Serious question... suppose a successful vaccine is not found and antibody levels in those who have had COVID-19 are low enough that they don't prevent re-infection. So there would never, in that scenario, be herd immunity. What then? Do we permanently adjust our way of life to protect against COVID-19? Or do we, at some point, say that regardless of the outcome we go back to normal? It's a serious question I'm asking. I'm not using a question to try to make a point. I'd be interested in your thoughts.

 

[xdan0920]

It's very very easy to fudge deaths. List is as "pneumonia" or "flu" ..... refuse to let numbers get publicly released until double confirmed...
The surest confirmation of death numbers will be in retrospect -- looking at the average annual number of deaths, and how far above the average were the totals for the year. Based on this method, we already know there was significant under-counting of deaths nationwide in the early months of the epidemic. (Nationwide).

Sure, on the test results... you can get a few false positives and duplicates, but that would amount to a rounding error. Not being off by multiples.

Considering what we are seeing through the rest of the sun belt... there is no reason to believe Florida should be behaving differently.

The death fudging is going the other way. We aren't missing deaths, we are ascribing too many to Covid. And using excess deaths as a barometer is completely wrong headed. How many of those excess deaths are lockdown related, and not Covid related? That's a toll we may never know the reality of. To completely discount it undermines your entire position. We are miscounting these deaths, we don't have the system in place to really measure a pandemic, or report nationwide deaths daily. It's being done piecemeal.

As an aside, and you can label me however you like....

I have first hand knowledge of the overcounting of Covid deaths in my County and town. I have a friend who works in the county, and she has told me about death certificates that make no sense. Drug OD w/Covid. Heart Attack w/covid. Car accident w/covid. The chief of a local police department stormed into the county offices to demand an explanation for what the hell was going on. Why was every death being marked "Covid". Now, is there enough of this to make a meaningful dent in the overall numbers? I don't know.

It does make me tend to label the counting as "miscounted" more then anything else though.

 

[Disney4family]

Conversely, high school and older students can be taught to respect social distancing, mask wearing, etc. (Doesn't mean teens will listen, but they at least have the capability). Good luck telling younger kids to stay 6 feet away from each other.

Things like chorus simply can't happen. At least not a big chorus. Good bye assemblies. Phys Ed limited to outdoors, distanced, non-contact activities.
As for regular classes... limiting class size, using the largest possible rooms. Limit cross-grade mixing.

Maybe the hardest aspect is transportation for areas that rely heavily on busing. I guess strongly encourage drop-offs, increase the number of buses with fewer kids per bus.

No matter what, it's going to be a real challenge.

Look at it this way, if Harvard and Princeton don't think they can keep their full student body safe, what are the odds of Valley Elementary School really being able to keep everyone safe?

With infection numbers exploding in early July... what are the chances of infections being low enough in late August, whereby hundreds or thousands of students will be entering a school building... what are the odds that you can avoid any infected individuals from entering the school?

I agree. Older kids can be taught to respect social distancing. I don't see it happening when the bell rings, though. Too many kids, teachers, aides, etc getting from room to room in 4 minutes. Locker use would be an issue, too.
My kids' district did a survey to check and see how many parents will provide transportation for their kids to cut down on bus use. They're hoping most will be driven privately.

 

[legwand77]

It's very very easy to fudge deaths. List is as "pneumonia" or "flu" ..... refuse to let numbers get publicly released until double confirmed...
The surest confirmation of death numbers will be in retrospect -- looking at the average annual number of deaths, and how far above the average were the totals for the year. Based on this method, we already know there was significant under-counting of deaths nationwide in the early months of the epidemic. (Nationwide).

Sure, on the test results... you can get a few false positives and duplicates, but that would amount to a rounding error. Not being off by multiples.

Considering what we are seeing through the rest of the sun belt... there is no reason to believe Florida should be behaving differently.

Much more evidence that cases are being coded Covid deaths that are not really Covid deaths but death while having Covid, covid not being the cause.

 

[Jrb1979]

Serious question... suppose a successful vaccine is not found and antibody levels in those who have had COVID-19 are low enough that they don't prevent re-infection. So there would never, in that scenario, be herd immunity. What then? Do we permanently adjust our way of life to protect against COVID-19? Or do we, at some point, say that regardless of the outcome we go back to normal? It's a serious question I'm asking. I'm not using a question to try to make a point. I'd be interested in your thoughts.

IMO we permanently adjust our way of life. I for one will love it if all Amusement Parks change to the reservation system which the lower capacity.

 

[schuelma]

Much more evidence that cases are being coded Covid deaths that are not really Covid deaths but death while having Covid, covid not being the cause.

Actually, from multiple studies from actual news outlets, worldwide, deaths are very likely being undercounted.

 

[tbella]

The death fudging is going the other way. We aren't missing deaths, we are ascribing too many to Covid. And using excess deaths as a barometer is completely wrong headed. How many of those excess deaths are lockdown related, and not Covid related? That's a toll we may never know the reality of. To completely discount it undermines your entire position. We are miscounting these deaths, we don't have the system in place to really measure a pandemic, or report nationwide deaths daily. It's being done piecemeal.

As an aside, and you can label me however you like....

I have first hand knowledge of the overcounting of Covid deaths in my County and town. I have a friend who works in the county, and she has told me about death certificates that make no sense. Drug OD w/Covid. Heart Attack w/covid. Car accident w/covid. The chief of a local police department stormed into the county offices to demand an explanation for what the hell was going on. Why was every death being marked "Covid". Now, is there enough of this to make a meaningful dent in the overall numbers? I don't know.

It does make me tend to label the counting as "miscounted" more then anything else though.

I have a cousin who owns a home healthcare agency in Miami and he has told me this as well. He also added that the more covid cases and deaths, the more federal funding they receive.

 

[tbella]

Actually, from multiple studies from actual news outlets, worldwide, deaths are very likely being undercounted.

Yes, in other countries. Unlikely in the US.

 

[schuelma]

Yes, in other countries. Unlikely in the US.

why is it unlikely in the US?