Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

Yeah… a flop…fail…nobody buying a lifetime sub to D+ for it

Nobody claimed it was a success.

Also no one dropped their D+ sub for it either, so don’t know your point here. Subs are gained and maintained by the overall content on the service not one piece of content. And Disney last I checked ties Netflix (or comes close) in terms of sub retention for D+/Hulu.

Probably wouldnt need to if there wasn’t a MASSIVE learning gap on some things here

Learning gap isn’t on my side so don’t know who you mean.

 

[TP2000]

So you just went the long way around to say the same thing that was said 5 days ago. Thanks for reaffirming though.

It's my distinct pleasure.

It's also why I told the Spectrum Internet salesman "Give me your 1 Gig Ultra plan, I've got a lot of important stuff to do!"

.

 

[TP2000]

Box office is finally out for Thursday, as the full list was delayed today for some reason. No surprise, it shows How To Train Your Dragon debuting strongly, and it will likely take 1st place from Lilo & Stitch.

The other question this weekend is how many theaters Lilo & Stitch and Thunderbolts will lose? I can't imagine Thunderbolts will hang on to more than 1,000 theaters at this point.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Friday October 24, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Friday October 24, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Box office is finally out for Thursday, as the full list was delayed today for some reason. No surprise, it shows How To Train Your Dragon debuting strongly, and it will likely take 1st place from Lilo & Stitch.

The other question this weekend is how many theaters Lilo & Stitch and Thunderbolts will lose? I can't imagine Thunderbolts will hang on to more than 1,000 theaters at this point.

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The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Friday October 24, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Friday October 24, 2025

thenumbers.com

Stitch will only lose 500 theaters this weekend -

 

[BrianLo]

Setting aside Gilroy’s actual quote, you twisted his comment as somehow he really meant “Peak TV” is dead. That’s simply not true - but maybe it is for Disney+?

Severance, Shrinking, Reacher, Poker Face, countless Netflix series, and the Taylor Sheridan extended universe prove “Peak TV” on streaming is alive and well, and continues to thrive. All of those streaming series have very large budgets, and have reached the cultural penetration enjoyed by previous “Peak TV” series.

Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I guess I just swing back to there’s no amount of massaging that really makes his quote not a bit off-the-cuff and hyperbolic. Because if peak TV is not dead, streaming (note he never says D+) cannot be either.

Disney has clearly pared back on their streaming series while other streamers have keep the course. This is a decidedly Disney problem, one that Gilroy candidly spoke to from his personal experience.

All streamers are going through high profile cancellations, apart from somewhat Apple.

In terms of your view that the business itself is not “dead,” that remains to be seen. Disney is clearly hedging its assets by going hard into licensing (Bluey, Rich Eisen, Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and licensing the FX productions via Hulu) and essentially reoffering a cable package (ESPN+Hulu+D+ plus the sports package) so we’ll see how that works in the long term. But they’ve done so at the expense of losing original content they’ve created and intend to create.

To a broader point, it is a little odd that Disney+’s most popular series by a landslide is a licensed Australian production, and the vaunted ESPN has been forced to license shows like Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and soon Rich Eisen. A company of its history and resources should be able to develop such popular products internally and organically.

Bluey I think falls In that same bucket of comfort long running serialized shows that seem to do well on all streamers. The same could be said for Netflix most popular series being a syndicated Canadian law drama. Or Peacock being admittedly at least their own NBC comedy series. I think that’s why we’ve seen a strategy pivot that there is still value left with linear long running series. Particularly now that most of the contraction in linear seems to have played out and we are settling into the end of line.

I do find this topic interesting and have made my views fairly well known. I think the market has largely been wrong on the viability. The market was terribly wrong on Netflix when they had their 2022 panic attack. There’s a lot more cash left to find with Disney streamers and they’ve been highly successful start ups. When the dust settles I am confident Disney will still be a major player in the streaming landscape, as they are currently.

I think some of this pessimism is seated in complaints against management, the parks, etc. But streaming has been a huge area of growth for the company and seemingly hasn’t stopped. We’ll certainly find out in a few more years. I have yet to be wrong on this trajectory.

 

[BrianLo]

I always forget about Hulu. I think Hulu (or FX on Hulu) has some good programs. I don’t remotely connect them to Disney though. I think probably because many (most?) of them are adult-oriented/TV-MA programs. For me, Disney is something the whole family can enjoy. But even some of the Marvel and Star Wars projects stretch that IMO.

The lack of viable family-friendly alternatives is what has kept us with Disney+. Their back catalogue and Bluey is really unbeatable. There’s little to nothing new that seems worth the subscription price though. It feels like that should be a problem for them but maybe the numbers say otherwise.

On the flip side I always forget you guys don’t just consider Hulu apart of D+. I balk at why everyone calls the D+ content pipeline bad, but admittedly Hulu is doing a lot of heavy lifting for me.

 

[Disney Irish]

On the flip side I always forget you guys don’t just consider Hulu apart of D+. I balk at why everyone calls the D+ content pipeline bad, but admittedly Hulu is doing a lot of heavy lifting for me.

I'm the same way, its why I end up just putting D+/Hulu. I think it'll be easier once the full integration is completed shortly.

 

[easyrowrdw]

On the flip side I always forget you guys don’t just consider Hulu apart of D+. I balk at why everyone calls the D+ content pipeline bad, but admittedly Hulu is doing a lot of heavy lifting for me.

This is a country difference - USA vs UK or somewhere else?

 

[Disney Irish]

This is a country difference - USA vs UK or somewhere else?

US and Japan are the only ones that have Hulu. Outside the US everywhere else D+ is offered its known as Star and has been bundled with D+ since 2021, long before Hulu was bundled with D+. So the US is the outlier here in this regard.

Basically at this point D+ and Hulu should just be considered one service just like D+ and Star since its all bundled together for a majority of customers.

 

[BrianLo]

This is a country difference - USA vs UK or somewhere else?

Canada in my case. But yes, everywhere but the US (and Japan) Hulu and FX content have just been in the D+ app under the holding label called Star. You cannot subscribe to Star separately, it just “is” D+ content.

It’s been this way since like 2021, so sort of feels like since the beginning. It’s an inevitability that Hulu as its own service will disappear eventually. The buyout gives the final flag.

I’ll acknowledge I don’t think it’s remotely as good as a streamer if you try and split it.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Canada in my case. But yes, everywhere but the US (and Japan) Hulu and FX content have just been in the D+ app under the holding label called Star. You cannot subscribe to Star separately, it just “is” D+ content.

It’s been this way since like 2021, so sort of feels like since the beginning. It’s an inevitability that Hulu as its own service will disappear eventually. The buyout gives the final flag.

I’ll acknowledge I don’t think it’s remotely as good as a streamer if you try and split it.

Ah, Canada. Got it.

That makes sense. We do Hulu cuz we can get it for $1-2/month on Black Friday. I already think D+ is overpriced so I’m not looking forward to paying more when they’re together. I guess we’ll see what pricing is.

Sorry I’ve been continuing the streaming talk in the box office thread!

 

[Phroobar]

How to train your Dragon was pretty awesome. It's a better movie than Lilo & Stitch. They expanded the teenagers backstories a little. Astrid was more like she was in the second movie. This one is just as good as the original but doesn't surpass it.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

With all the relatively creative Stitch marketing, I thought a more explicit ad could have been made to imply that Elio is basically Stitch’s fish out of water story in reverse, with the main character going to another world vs. an alien coming to ours. “If you liked L&S…”

Well, they just put out an ad with Stitch watching a preview of Elio, and saying, “Just like Stitch!” and other similar phrases. Ta-da! (Maybe a little late.)

 

[MisterPenguin]

Well, they just put out an ad with Stitch watching a preview of Elio, and saying, “Just like Stitch!” and other similar phrases. Ta-da! (Maybe a little late.)

Are you aware of "react videos" the kids can't get enough of?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Are you aware of "react videos" the kids can't get enough of?

Of course.

 

[Phroobar]

Elio should have had half second cameo or easter egg in L&S.

 

[Disney Irish]

Weekend update -

How to Train your Dragon is looking to have a opening of $75M-$85M with a consensus of ~$82.7M.

‘How To Train Your Dragon’ Still On Course For Franchise Best $82M+ Opening After ‘A’ CinemaScore; ‘Materialists’ Reps A24’s Third Biggest Opening – Saturday Update

Universal's 'How to Train Your Dragon' is opening to $82.5M, the best in the franchise, while A24's 'Materialists' is looking at $11M+.

deadline.com

Solid opening for the franchise, but probably lower than $100M opening many expected after Stitch and Minecraft both hit that mark. So may not be the "Stitch killer" after all, as I've seen some online (not here) make that claim.

 

[Disney Irish]

‘Thunderbolts*’ Lost Millions of Dollars Despite Great Reviews. Where Does Marvel Go Next?

Disney's MCU is at an inflection point. With "Thunderbolts*" the latest box office disappointment, will Marvel continue to back riskier stand-alones?

variety.com

I think a good takeaway from this article is what Fandango head said -

“Marvel’s calculus has changed,” says Shawn Robbins, Fandango’s movie analytics director. “We’re in a new era where not every Marvel movie is going to hit $1 billion.”

This is the expectation reset I've been talking about for a few years now, and the industry is acknowledging it.

Also thought this was a good thing to highlight as it was noted in the article also -

"Marvel is unique because it isn’t as encumbered as rivals by the profits or losses of single films. The company can recoup some costs through Disney+ and other home entertainment markets, to say nothing of the massive revenue streams from merchandising, theme parks and cruises."

So make of that what you will.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Estimate for HTTYD is $83.7 million domestic, $197.8 million globally. Movie had a $150 million budget.

Unadjusted for inflation, it's the highest opening for a HTTYD movie, but less than the $100 million some were forecasting

I find it amusing that AMC Disney Springs is the highest grossing location and not the movie theater at CityWalk

 

[TP2000]

Happy Father's Day gang, to all our Dad's out there in Discussionland! I hope your day is great, and you got the day you deserve! Steaks? Bourbon? Or just the promise to not get a necktie?

I got a funny custom card from my sister this weekend, made with a photo of our Dad's massive 1967 Lincoln Continental that we were both forbidden from touching, let alone driving. Even on Prom nights or big events, we were both relegated to driving my Mom's pokey Volvo until we could get our own cars. Don't touch Dad's Lincoln!

Here's box office for this weekend. Lilo & Stitch fell to second place finally, due to that dragon. It only lost 500ish theaters, which seems to be a very good hold a month into its run. Thunderbolts, on the other hand, is nearly gone from the box office. It won't be a money maker for Marvel at the box office, to say the least.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for October 3, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of October 3, 2025

thenumbers.com