Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[MisterPenguin]

If anyone if flummoxed over what's happening in streaming, there's a thread for that that has been tracking cord cutting and the streaming wars that isn't explicitly D+...

Thread 'All Things Streaming (VOD, OTT)'

Dec 16, 2018

This thread will be for all things streaming: video on demand, over the top (TV), Netflix, Roku, Chromecast, AppleTV, Amazon Video, etc...

To kick things off...

Netflix Originals Will Be More In Demand Than Licensed Titles By 2019 – Study

Demand for Netflix originals will outpace demand for licensed titles by October 2019, a new report from Parrot Analytics and Kagan predicts.

deadline.com

Netflix Reveals 2018’s Most-Binged Shows, Most-Re-Watched Original Movies

Netflix said "The Kissing Booth" is its most-re-watched original movie and "On My Block" its "most binged" original show of 2018.

deadline.com

• MisterPenguin
• Replies: 548
• Forum: TV Shows, Movies, and Music

• 

 

[Nevermore525]

Stitch will likely cross $800M WW tonight if not be very close, currently sitting at $795.2M -

View attachment 864106

It passed $800M on Wednesday. The Numbers domestic total is off on that chart vs their detailed breakdown. Daily domestic on The Numbers has it at $348,009,617.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

‘Thunderbolts*’ Lost Millions of Dollars Despite Great Reviews. Where Does Marvel Go Next?

Disney's MCU is at an inflection point. With "Thunderbolts*" the latest box office disappointment, will Marvel continue to back riskier stand-alones?

variety.com

 

[Tha Realest]

Well, first of all I’ve read his entire quote. In which he was talking about large production budgets as what are dead. Not the business viability of the streaming. I was responding to Walter, who was clearly using it to support a different position than what was meant.

I think we agree, but you are lecturing me as opposed to responding to my question. Do you agree with my interpretation of the direction of the business subunit itself is not dead? Or do you really think profits are about to decline, which knowing Walter well, is the way he is using the quote. I don’t think you believe that, or if you do, state your own prediction.

Setting aside Gilroy’s actual quote, you twisted his comment as somehow he really meant “Peak TV” is dead. That’s simply not true - but maybe it is for Disney+?

Severance, Shrinking, Reacher, Poker Face, countless Netflix series, and the Taylor Sheridan extended universe prove “Peak TV” on streaming is alive and well, and continues to thrive. All of those streaming series have very large budgets, and have reached the cultural penetration enjoyed by previous “Peak TV” series.

Disney has clearly pared back on their streaming series while other streamers have keep the course. This is a decidedly Disney problem, one that Gilroy candidly spoke to from his personal experience.

In terms of your view that the business itself is not “dead,” that remains to be seen. Disney is clearly hedging its assets by going hard into licensing (Bluey, Rich Eisen, Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and licensing the FX productions via Hulu) and essentially reoffering a cable package (ESPN+Hulu+D+ plus the sports package) so we’ll see how that works in the long term. But they’ve done so at the expense of losing original content they’ve created and intend to create.

To a broader point, it is a little odd that Disney+’s most popular series by a landslide is a licensed Australian production, and the vaunted ESPN has been forced to license shows like Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and soon Rich Eisen. A company of its history and resources should be able to develop such popular products internally and organically.

 

[MisterPenguin]

In terms of your view that the business itself is not “dead,” that remains to be seen. Disney is clearly hedging its assets by going hard into licensing (Bluey, Rich Eisen, Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and licensing the FX productions via Hulu) and essentially reoffering a cable package (ESPN+Hulu+D+ plus the sports package) so we’ll see how that works in the long term. But they’ve done so at the expense of losing original content they’ve created and intend to create.

Until the past few months, Disney was putting out more content for home TV/handhelds than any other company when you take into account both linear and streaming. (YouTube is now on top, Disney is second.)

Disney's linear is still putting out top shows on ABC (Abbott Elementary, Grey's Anatomy) and FX (Shogun, The Bear). And they wind up on streaming, mostly Hulu. Hulu puts out its own popular series (Handmaid's Tale, Only Murders in the Building).

Disney+ may have given up on original series... except for the big success of Andor.

And while D+ new content production is down, it receives a steady stream of all the movies that all of the Disney studios create.

And yes, Disney is licensing non-Disney content, like Bluey, it's also licensing out it's own content to other streamers.

Two quarters ago Disney DTC made a profit of a quarter of billion dollars. Last quarter it was a third of a billion. Just think of that. If things stay the way it is, then every 3 quarters, streaming will *profit* a billion dollars.

Ad tier keeps growing (which is more profitable than subs).

Hulu and ESPN will be completely integrated by the end of the year. Bundling reduces churn.

All the content and income from broadcast and cable TV is in the process of going away. Where will it go? Streaming.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Setting aside Gilroy’s actual quote, you twisted his comment as somehow he really meant “Peak TV” is dead. That’s simply not true - but maybe it is for Disney+?

Severance, Shrinking, Reacher, Poker Face, countless Netflix series, and the Taylor Sheridan extended universe prove “Peak TV” on streaming is alive and well, and continues to thrive. All of those streaming series have very large budgets, and have reached the cultural penetration enjoyed by previous “Peak TV” series.

Disney has clearly pared back on their streaming series while other streamers have keep the course. This is a decidedly Disney problem, one that Gilroy candidly spoke to from his personal experience.

In terms of your view that the business itself is not “dead,” that remains to be seen. Disney is clearly hedging its assets by going hard into licensing (Bluey, Rich Eisen, Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and licensing the FX productions via Hulu) and essentially reoffering a cable package (ESPN+Hulu+D+ plus the sports package) so we’ll see how that works in the long term. But they’ve done so at the expense of losing original content they’ve created and intend to create.

To a broader point, it is a little odd that Disney+’s most popular series by a landslide is a licensed Australian production, and the vaunted ESPN has been forced to license shows like Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and soon Rich Eisen. A company of its history and resources should be able to develop such popular products internally and organically.

Indeed…there is a lot of whistling past the graveyard when it comes to the “challenges” of this model. You did a great job of pointing them out.

And it’s not just 5 people here…it’s also the companies themselves that are doing it.

For instance…one tiny little man ignored the issue altogether and rode the cable train until it crashed…hesitantly got into it…balked at the prices and is trying to shave it down almost immediately and blame baldy

 

[easyrowrdw]

Until the past few months, Disney was putting out more content for home TV/handhelds than any other company when you take into account both linear and streaming. (YouTube is now on top, Disney is second.)

Disney's linear is still putting out top shows on ABC (Abbott Elementary, Grey's Anatomy) and FX (Shogun, The Bear). And they wind up on streaming, mostly Hulu. Hulu puts out its own popular series (Handmaid's Tale, Only Murders in the Building).

Disney+ may have given up on original series... except for the big success of Andor.

And while D+ new content production is down, it receives a steady stream of all the movies that all of the Disney studios create.

And yes, Disney is licensing non-Disney content, like Bluey, it's also licensing out it's own content to other streamers.

Two quarters ago Disney DTC made a profit of a quarter of billion dollars. Last quarter it was a third of a billion. Just think of that. If things stay the way it is, then every 3 quarters, streaming will *profit* a billion dollars.

Ad tier keeps growing (which is more profitable than subs).

Hulu and ESPN will be completely integrated by the end of the year. Bundling reduces churn.

All the content and income from broadcast and cable TV is in the process of going away. Where will it go? Streaming.

I always forget about Hulu. I think Hulu (or FX on Hulu) has some good programs. I don’t remotely connect them to Disney though. I think probably because many (most?) of them are adult-oriented/TV-MA programs. For me, Disney is something the whole family can enjoy. But even some of the Marvel and Star Wars projects stretch that IMO.

The lack of viable family-friendly alternatives is what has kept us with Disney+. Their back catalogue and Bluey is really unbeatable. There’s little to nothing new that seems worth the subscription price though. It feels like that should be a problem for them but maybe the numbers say otherwise.

 

[TP2000]

Thunderbolts wrapped at $374

Legs don’t grow as much as we think

Where is that as far as marvel flops?

Top 3?

It appears to be in fourth place, behind The Marvels and Morbius and Dark Phoenix. We can finally use The Marvels for some good news; Thunderbolts beat The Marvels at the box office!

Adjusted for inflation in the modern Disney-era of Marvel movies, Thunderbolts is also beat by these five relative flops.

Chronologically, only using the past half decade unadjusted for inflation, Thunderbolts remains in 4th place as one of the worst Marvel box office performances of all time. Especially in the Disney era of mega-budgets and global marketing campaigns.

 

[Disney Irish]

It appears to be in fourth place, behind The Marvels and Morbius and Dark Phoenix. We can finally use The Marvels for some good news; Thunderbolts beat The Marvels at the box office!

Adjusted for inflation in the modern Disney-era of Marvel movies, Thunderbolts is also beat by these five relative flops.

View attachment 864284


Chronologically, only using the past half decade unadjusted for inflation, Thunderbolts remains in 4th place as one of the worst Marvel box office performances of all time. Especially in the Disney era of mega-budgets and global marketing campaigns.

View attachment 864285

So you just went the long way around to say the same thing that was said 5 days ago. Thanks for reaffirming though.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It appears to be in fourth place, behind The Marvels and Morbius and Dark Phoenix. We can finally use The Marvels for some good news; Thunderbolts beat The Marvels at the box office!

Adjusted for inflation in the modern Disney-era of Marvel movies, Thunderbolts is also beat by these five relative flops.

View attachment 864284


Chronologically, only using the past half decade unadjusted for inflation, Thunderbolts remains in 4th place as one of the worst Marvel box office performances of all time. Especially in the Disney era of mega-budgets and global marketing campaigns.

View attachment 864285

Yeah… a flop…fail…nobody buying a lifetime sub to D+ for it

So you just went the long way around to say the same thing that was said 5 days ago. Thanks for reaffirming though.

Probably wouldnt need to if there wasn’t a MASSIVE learning gap on some things here

 

[Disney Irish]

Yeah… a flop…fail…nobody buying a lifetime sub to D+ for it

Nobody claimed it was a success.

Also no one dropped their D+ sub for it either, so don’t know your point here. Subs are gained and maintained by the overall content on the service not one piece of content. And Disney last I checked ties Netflix (or comes close) in terms of sub retention for D+/Hulu.

Probably wouldnt need to if there wasn’t a MASSIVE learning gap on some things here

Learning gap isn’t on my side so don’t know who you mean.

 

[TP2000]

So you just went the long way around to say the same thing that was said 5 days ago. Thanks for reaffirming though.

It's my distinct pleasure.

It's also why I told the Spectrum Internet salesman "Give me your 1 Gig Ultra plan, I've got a lot of important stuff to do!"

.

 

[TP2000]

Box office is finally out for Thursday, as the full list was delayed today for some reason. No surprise, it shows How To Train Your Dragon debuting strongly, and it will likely take 1st place from Lilo & Stitch.

The other question this weekend is how many theaters Lilo & Stitch and Thunderbolts will lose? I can't imagine Thunderbolts will hang on to more than 1,000 theaters at this point.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday June 12, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday June 12, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Box office is finally out for Thursday, as the full list was delayed today for some reason. No surprise, it shows How To Train Your Dragon debuting strongly, and it will likely take 1st place from Lilo & Stitch.

The other question this weekend is how many theaters Lilo & Stitch and Thunderbolts will lose? I can't imagine Thunderbolts will hang on to more than 1,000 theaters at this point.

View attachment 864296

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday June 12, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday June 12, 2025

thenumbers.com

Stitch will only lose 500 theaters this weekend -

 

[BrianLo]

Setting aside Gilroy’s actual quote, you twisted his comment as somehow he really meant “Peak TV” is dead. That’s simply not true - but maybe it is for Disney+?

Severance, Shrinking, Reacher, Poker Face, countless Netflix series, and the Taylor Sheridan extended universe prove “Peak TV” on streaming is alive and well, and continues to thrive. All of those streaming series have very large budgets, and have reached the cultural penetration enjoyed by previous “Peak TV” series.

Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I guess I just swing back to there’s no amount of massaging that really makes his quote not a bit off-the-cuff and hyperbolic. Because if peak TV is not dead, streaming (note he never says D+) cannot be either.

Disney has clearly pared back on their streaming series while other streamers have keep the course. This is a decidedly Disney problem, one that Gilroy candidly spoke to from his personal experience.

All streamers are going through high profile cancellations, apart from somewhat Apple.

In terms of your view that the business itself is not “dead,” that remains to be seen. Disney is clearly hedging its assets by going hard into licensing (Bluey, Rich Eisen, Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and licensing the FX productions via Hulu) and essentially reoffering a cable package (ESPN+Hulu+D+ plus the sports package) so we’ll see how that works in the long term. But they’ve done so at the expense of losing original content they’ve created and intend to create.

To a broader point, it is a little odd that Disney+’s most popular series by a landslide is a licensed Australian production, and the vaunted ESPN has been forced to license shows like Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and soon Rich Eisen. A company of its history and resources should be able to develop such popular products internally and organically.

Bluey I think falls In that same bucket of comfort long running serialized shows that seem to do well on all streamers. The same could be said for Netflix most popular series being a syndicated Canadian law drama. Or Peacock being admittedly at least their own NBC comedy series. I think that’s why we’ve seen a strategy pivot that there is still value left with linear long running series. Particularly now that most of the contraction in linear seems to have played out and we are settling into the end of line.

I do find this topic interesting and have made my views fairly well known. I think the market has largely been wrong on the viability. The market was terribly wrong on Netflix when they had their 2022 panic attack. There’s a lot more cash left to find with Disney streamers and they’ve been highly successful start ups. When the dust settles I am confident Disney will still be a major player in the streaming landscape, as they are currently.

I think some of this pessimism is seated in complaints against management, the parks, etc. But streaming has been a huge area of growth for the company and seemingly hasn’t stopped. We’ll certainly find out in a few more years. I have yet to be wrong on this trajectory.

 

[BrianLo]

I always forget about Hulu. I think Hulu (or FX on Hulu) has some good programs. I don’t remotely connect them to Disney though. I think probably because many (most?) of them are adult-oriented/TV-MA programs. For me, Disney is something the whole family can enjoy. But even some of the Marvel and Star Wars projects stretch that IMO.

The lack of viable family-friendly alternatives is what has kept us with Disney+. Their back catalogue and Bluey is really unbeatable. There’s little to nothing new that seems worth the subscription price though. It feels like that should be a problem for them but maybe the numbers say otherwise.

On the flip side I always forget you guys don’t just consider Hulu apart of D+. I balk at why everyone calls the D+ content pipeline bad, but admittedly Hulu is doing a lot of heavy lifting for me.

 

[Disney Irish]

On the flip side I always forget you guys don’t just consider Hulu apart of D+. I balk at why everyone calls the D+ content pipeline bad, but admittedly Hulu is doing a lot of heavy lifting for me.

I'm the same way, its why I end up just putting D+/Hulu. I think it'll be easier once the full integration is completed shortly.

 

[easyrowrdw]

On the flip side I always forget you guys don’t just consider Hulu apart of D+. I balk at why everyone calls the D+ content pipeline bad, but admittedly Hulu is doing a lot of heavy lifting for me.

This is a country difference - USA vs UK or somewhere else?

 

[Disney Irish]

This is a country difference - USA vs UK or somewhere else?

US and Japan are the only ones that have Hulu. Outside the US everywhere else D+ is offered its known as Star and has been bundled with D+ since 2021, long before Hulu was bundled with D+. So the US is the outlier here in this regard.

Basically at this point D+ and Hulu should just be considered one service just like D+ and Star since its all bundled together for a majority of customers.

 

[BrianLo]

This is a country difference - USA vs UK or somewhere else?

Canada in my case. But yes, everywhere but the US (and Japan) Hulu and FX content have just been in the D+ app under the holding label called Star. You cannot subscribe to Star separately, it just “is” D+ content.

It’s been this way since like 2021, so sort of feels like since the beginning. It’s an inevitability that Hulu as its own service will disappear eventually. The buyout gives the final flag.

I’ll acknowledge I don’t think it’s remotely as good as a streamer if you try and split it.