Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

From what I understand… from most reviews I have seen…Ralph Macchio is sort of an afterthought and is pretty useless in the movie… as if the whole point was just to attempt to get butts in seats…. With the success of Cobra Kai they should have leaned more into Macchio….IMO they should have tied it into the series without using plot threads from the show…. So you don’t alienate the general public but also attract Cobra Kai fans…. What was the point in delaying the film until the series was over

That sounds like really bad Hollywood management 101…

They didn’t try to replace a mark Hamill character in it too, did they?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

With the success of Cobra Kai they should have leaned more into Macchio….IMO they should have tied it into the series without using plot threads from the show…. So you don’t alienate the general public but also attract Cobra Kai fans…

I haven’t even watched Cobra Kai yet, and that all completely makes sense. I’m surprised there’s no tie-in.

 

[DKampy]

I haven’t even watched Cobra Kai yet, and that all completely makes sense. I’m surprised there’s no tie-in.

I was late to the s party… but I was surprised how much I enjoyed Cobra Kai…. It was cheesy at times…. But it add to the 80’s aesthetic…, which is the era I came of age… sp it was very much in my wheelhouse

 

[Tha Realest]

It is very helpful to see how a film starts to perform over time, and comparing it to other trajectories of similar films. It’s why they look to see how much of a second weekend drop it has compared to similar films, and reflective of how much audience (or prospective audience) enthusiasm remains for the film.

L&S does have some headwinds in two weeks with the HTTYD live action film coming out, especially since that franchise has historically had a much stronger international pull than domestic US

 

[Disney Irish]

It is very helpful to see how a film starts to perform over time, and comparing it to other trajectories of similar films. It’s why they look to see how much of a second weekend drop it has compared to similar films, and reflective of how much audience (or prospective audience) enthusiasm remains for the film.

I don't think anyone is arguing against comparing performances of films. What is being argued against is the specific calculation for which some posters claim is showing that comparison.

One cannot take the total domestic and divide it by the total international of a film no longer in theaters and say a film just released using that same calculation is lagging. You'll never get the same percentages, ever. That is like trying to compare the completion time of someone that already finished a race with someone who just left the starting block and say they are already behind. No one does comparisons that way, as its a flaw calculation. That type of comparison is only done once a film finishes its theatrical run, because at that point its an apples-to-apples comparison.

What should be done, if one cares about such statistics, is to take a week-by-week comparison and see where each film in its respective run has done domestic compared to international. This is how proper data analysis is done. Doing it any other way is just trying to compare the wrong things in order to tell a specific narrative, which we know some are prone to do around here.

 

[BrianLo]

The predictions have been logged, clearly prematurely. Though I appreciate clear predictions. This reminds me of not really getting the impact of the Christmas holiday play.

I think the point might solidify coming out of the weekend how you can’t compare a domestic holiday weekend to an international regular weekend - missing a vital market no less.

 

[Disney Analyst]

With a $400 million budget, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning will struggle to break even.

the “church” of Scientology is probably helping bankroll it. Let it fail.

 

[Disney Irish]

the “church” of Scientology is probably helping bankroll it. Let it fail.

That didn’t work out too well for them last they did it with Travolta and Battlefield Earth.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Mission Impossible 1-6 are on Disney+ in Canada, which I thought was odd since they're Paramount movies.

Maybe it's part of some international licensing/distribution deal, but typically Canada and the US are the same for movies.

 

[Nevermore525]

$63M domestic for Lilo and Stitch on current estimates, domestic around $280M

Global up to $610M

MI:8 around $27M domestically

Karate Kid in the low $20M range

‘Lilo & Stitch’ Kicks Up $63M Second Weekend, ‘Mission Impossible 8’ $27M+, ‘Karate Kid: Legends’ At $21M – Box Office Update

'Lilo & Stitch' in its second weekend at the U.S. box office towered over 'Karate Kid: Legends' & 'Bring Her Back'.

deadline.com

 

[LittleBuford]

There's actually a lot of progressive people who dislike the ending of the remake and criticizing it as anti-indigenous/pro-colonialism.

That seems pretty patronising and essentialising to me.

 

[LittleBuford]

As it stands now, Lilo & Stitch is underperforming overseas as a percentage of domestic box office almost as badly as The Little Mermaid did. That's an Oof!, especially in Scandinavia's box office.

“After two weekends on the big screen, the live-action ‘Lilo’ remake has grossed $330.7 million internationally and $280.1 million domestically.”

Box Office: ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Flies to $610 Million Globally, ‘Mission: Impossible 8’ and ‘Sinners’ Hit $350 Million Milestone

Box office milestones abound for Disney's "Lilo & Stitch," Paramont's "Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning" and Warner Bros. "Sinners."

variety.com

Lilo & Stitch (2025) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Lilo & Stitch (2025) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[DKampy]

“After two weekends on the big screen, the live-action ‘Lilo’ remake has grossed $330.7 million internationally and $280.1 million domestically.”

Box Office: ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Flies to $610 Million Globally, ‘Mission: Impossible 8’ and ‘Sinners’ Hit $350 Million Milestone

Box office milestones abound for Disney's "Lilo & Stitch," Paramont's "Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning" and Warner Bros. "Sinners."

variety.com

Lilo & Stitch (2025) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Lilo & Stitch (2025) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

To quote @TP2000 ”oof”

 

[LittleBuford]

To quote @TP2000 ”oof”

I'm glad I could put an end to his consternation! It was rough there for a while!

 

[Disney Analyst]

“After two weekends on the big screen, the live-action ‘Lilo’ remake has grossed $330.7 million internationally and $280.1 million domestically.”

Box Office: ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Flies to $610 Million Globally, ‘Mission: Impossible 8’ and ‘Sinners’ Hit $350 Million Milestone

Box office milestones abound for Disney's "Lilo & Stitch," Paramont's "Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning" and Warner Bros. "Sinners."

variety.com

Lilo & Stitch (2025) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Lilo & Stitch (2025) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

1 billion incoming.

 

[TP2000]

No one here is anywhere close to being in the movie industry…or they wouldn’t be here. Just like people who “know”
Parks plans aren’t here either…cause they wouldn’t be bothered with it.

This is a fan forum…a Disney one…only certain bugs are attracted to the light. It’s not an academic think tank or cultural round table here

Thank you for the reminder! Even I sometimes can be convinced I'm chatting with "experts" in the topic's field, when clearly none of us are experts at anything we discuss here; E Ticket hourly capacity, box office trends, executive strategy for mature park development, WDI priorities in modern storytelling, etc., etc.

As for box office and the movie industry, I'd imagine the waiter at a Silver Lake brunch place is more informed on that topic than we are!

What I’ve gleaned from this exchange is that it is common for the overseas box office to start out relatively slower but pick up over time… I wonder why that is? Do movies tend to run longer overseas?

I don't think movies overseas run longer, but maybe they do? If anything, I'd imagine they have more competition from local/national movies in their respective lands. Generally though, the recent live action remakes from Disney have had foreign box office that was 150% or higher than the domestic box office.

Even disastrous Snow White got 136% of its domestic box office overseas. Probably because some of Rachel Zegler's publicity hand grenades she was throwing at her own movie got lost in translation over there.

“After two weekends on the big screen, the live-action ‘Lilo’ remake has grossed $330.7 million internationally and $280.1 million domestically.”

For those of us keeping score, that's a foreign box office that is 117% of its domestic total so far.

To quote @TP2000 ”oof”

It's actually spelled "Oof". It's almost always it's own sentence. It's an old Swedish thing my parents and grandparents used for little unfortunate events that deserved, well, an.... Oof! It's actual origins were the Norwegian language "Uff da!", which was also used, but much less often, in my Swedish household. But "Uff da" was sort of Americanized into Oof! by the mid 20th century by my grandparents. And now you can use it too!

 

[TP2000]

Here's the first pass at weekend box office, gang! Lilo & Stitch dropped 57% and Thunderbolts dropped 50% from last weekend.

It does not appear as though Thunderbolts will hit $400 Million globally at this point. And with a production budget of $180 Million, that means it will lose a substantial amount of money for Burbank at the box office. That's definitely an Oof!

As always, final numbers will be available for this weekend by tomorrow afternoon.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for October 3, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of October 3, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

1 billion incoming.

Will it though? It would seem to be more on a trajectory towards $850 Million or less, even with Japan's debut next weekend.

Regardless of whether it makes $800 Million or $1 Billion at the global box office, it's a huge money maker for Burbank and the Rideback Ranch kids over the hill. Thanks to its very modest $100 Million production costs from Rideback Ranch, it already crossed into profitability just as this weekend was starting.

I wonder if Burbank learns a lesson from that? The cubicle army on the Burbank lot can't be pleased at what the success of Lilo & Stitch means for their future.

 

[LittleBuford]

It's actually spelled "Oof". It's almost always it's own sentence. It's an old Swedish thing my parents and grandparents used for little unfortunate events that deserved, well, an.... Oof! It's actual origins were the Norwegian language "Uff da!", which was also used, but much less often, in my Swedish household. But "Uff da" was sort of Americanized into Oof! by the mid 20th century by my grandparents. And now you can use it too!

Though I don't doubt you have family and cultural reasons for using it, the English "oof" is a cognate of the Swedish "uff" rather than a derivative of it (it exists in many Germanic languages). It is attested as far back as the eighteenth century.

Oxford English Dictionary

The OED is the definitive record of the English language, featuring 600,000 words, 3 million quotations, and over 1,000 years of English.

www.oed.com

Definition of OOF

—used to express discomfort, surprise, or dismay… See the full definition

www.merriam-webster.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

1 billion incoming.

Not sure about that…

But if true it shows how easy this is because I thought that months ago

At first glance….looks like it slow a little more than I thought domestically but picked up internationally?

Let’s see if it becomes “the choice of grandma” as the rest of US schools dump out?