Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Lol, its no different than TPs cherry picking of his data with every single one of his calculations. I used it specifically because to show its clear international outpaced domestic, but his calculation shows it "lagged" because it only got a small bump over 100% of domestic. Its a flawed calculation, one that no one in the entire industry uses that I'm aware.

Anyways, yes I agree I think international will pick up over the next couple weeks and will probably be closer to a more traditional 40/60 or 45/55 domestic/international split on the totals. I mean its already 48/52 so its not that far off.

Oh I’m not comparing the size of the cherries

They’re both hanging low off the tree

Using a Star Wars movie off a long hiatus is hard to use as a comparison.

Phantom movie was after 16 years and a feverish anticipation buildup that can never legitimately be duplicated. The farce awakens after 10 and the backlash from the prior one that is regarded as awful…believing Disney would right the ship…
In reality…they rolled it over completely

 

[TP2000]

I'll just leave it by saying your calculation is flawed, and no one in the industry calculates things that way.

I'm not in the movie industry. I was in the industrial supply industry, but I retired. So now I'm here.

In the end it doesn't really matter the breakdown, it matters the total anyways.

Yes, we'll know the totals for Lilo & Stitch about two months from now. Currently, it's foreign box office is at only 98% of its domestic box office, which is a comparatively weak performance and current trajectory.

I suspect its foreign box office will be at 110% (Thanks, Japan!) or less of its domestic box office, which is notably lower than other recent live action remakes that were successful. Maybe best case scenario (HUGE in Japan!!!) it gets a foreign box office that ends up at 125% of its domestic box office? That would still be much worse than the comparative foreign box office of Aladdin, Mufasa, Beauty & The Beast, and even Snow White.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm not in the movie industry. I was in the industrial supply industry, but I retired. So now I'm here.



Yes, we'll know the totals for Lilo & Stitch about two months from now. Currently, it's foreign box office is at only 98% of its domestic box office, which is a comparatively weak performance and current trajectory.

I suspect its foreign box office will be at 110% (Thanks, Japan!) or less of its domestic box office, which is notably lower than other recent live action remakes that were successful. Maybe best case scenario (HUGE in Japan!!!) it gets a foreign box office that ends up at 125% of its domestic box office? That would still be much worse than the comparative foreign box office of Aladdin, Mufasa, Beauty & The Beast, and even Snow White.

The point is if it does over $1B or even comes close who cares what this silly calc of yours says
Is the percentage? You think Disney cares? Obviously not nor do they even use it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not in the movie industry. I was in the industrial supply industry, but I retired. So now I'm here.

No need to explain that one. I second it.

No one here is anywhere close to being in the movie industry…or they wouldn’t be here. Just like people who “know”
Parks plans aren’t here either…cause they wouldn’t be bothered with it.

This is a fan forum…a Disney one…only certain bugs are attracted to the light. It’s not an academic think tank or cultural round table here

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The point is if it does over $1B or even comes close who cares what this silly calc of yours says
Is the percentage? You think Disney cares? Obviously not nor do they even use it.

If it does a billion and $580 of it is domestic…I don’t think any heads will roll out of the front gate of the studio…

There’s probably already a growing pile of heads from the list of flops with zero ancillary sales potential already

 

[Nevermore525]

Karate Kid trending toward a sub $20M opening weekend domestically.

Stitch trending closer to a $60M second weekend

 

[DisneyHead123]

What I’ve gleaned from this exchange is that it is common for the overseas box office to start out relatively slower but pick up over time… I wonder why that is? Do movies tend to run longer overseas?

Anyways, I still think Stitch will pick up nicely overseas through word of mouth. I suspect that after their short box office slump, people don’t automatically turn out for Disney in the same way - but when they hear good things, I think the box office will pick up.

 

[Disney Irish]

What I’ve gleaned from this exchange is that it is common for the overseas box office to start out relatively slower but pick up over time… I wonder why that is? Do movies tend to run longer overseas?

Anyways, I still think Stitch will pick up nicely overseas through word of mouth. I suspect that after their short box office slump, people don’t automatically turn out for Disney in the same way - but when they hear good things, I think the box office will pick up.

Since the early 2000s movies have tended to have larger box office totals overseas compared to domestic (US and Canada), largely because the whole world is bigger than just the US and Canada domestic market. So the percentage has skewed 40% domestic and 60% international, with varying degrees on either side. And having that is what lead to larger and larger box office totals, and how we got to $1B+ movies. So the theory is that the larger percentage of the total that skews international the larger the box office totals. Now that hasn't always been the case, as some movies end up closer to 50/50 and still hit $1B+. But its still the thought by many that you need a larger international percentage in order to get a bigger total, I don't necessarily subscribe to that thought.

Now to me I think a healthy percentage is 45/55 as studios tend to take home more of the money domestically than they do internationally. So a slight skew toward international good, but you don't want a huge percentage in my opinion. So anything way under 40/60 is bad in my opinion, like a 35/65 or 30/70 wouldn't be good. So a nice round 45/55 is the best in my opinion.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Since the early 2000s movies have tended to have larger box office totals overseas compared to domestic (US and Canada), largely because the whole world is bigger than just the US and Canada domestic market. So the percentage has skewed 40% domestic and 60% international, with varying degrees on either side. And having that is what lead to larger and larger box office totals, and how we got to $1B+ movies. So the theory is that the larger percentage of the total that skews international the larger the box office totals. Now that hasn't always been the case, as some movies end up closer to 50/50 and still hit $1B+. But its still the thought by many that you need a larger international percentage in order to get a bigger total, I don't necessarily subscribe to that thought.

Now to me I think a healthy percentage is 45/55 as studios tend to take home more of the money domestically than they do internationally. So a slight skew toward international good, but you don't want a huge percentage in my opinion. So anything way under 40/60 is bad in my opinion, like a 35/65 or 30/70 wouldn't be good. So a nice round 45/55 is the best in my opinion.

In that case I don’t think anyone actually disagrees on anything - the movie may “lag” overseas relatively, compared to other movies, but given the domestic reception that’s not a big deal.

I still think it will pick up overseas via word of mouth though.

 

[brideck]

Since the early 2000s movies have tended to have larger box office totals overseas compared to domestic (US and Canada), largely because the whole world is bigger than just the US and Canada domestic market. So the percentage has skewed 40% domestic and 60% international, with varying degrees on either side.

Or it's just possible that TP is comparing this to the wrong thing. Shocker, I know. Lilo & Stitch (in general) appears to be more popular domestically than in the rest of the world. Disney would know this ahead of time, and have no reason to panic the way that it's being implied that they should be.

Here's how the original animated movie did:

Not sure why'd you expect a sudden overseas surge now just because other movies have been popular there recently.

And lest you think that the OG's split is just because of the time period, here are the 2001 (Atlantis) and 2003 (Brother Bear) animated features:

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Karate Kid trending toward a sub $20M opening weekend domestically.

Stitch trending closer to a $60M second weekend

I don’t get the lack of promotion for karate kid?

It’s like they couldn’t be bothered

 

[DKampy]

I don’t get the lack of promotion for karate kid?

It’s like they couldn’t be bothered

From what I understand… from most reviews I have seen…Ralph Macchio is sort of an afterthought and is pretty useless in the movie… as if the whole point was just to attempt to get butts in seats…. With the success of Cobra Kai they should have leaned more into Macchio….IMO they should have tied it into the series without using plot threads from the show…. So you don’t alienate the general public but also attract Cobra Kai fans…. What was the point in delaying the film until the series was over

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

From what I understand… from most reviews I have seen…Ralph Macchio is sort of an afterthought and is pretty useless in the movie… as if the whole point was just to attempt to get butts in seats…. With the success of Cobra Kai they should have leaned more into Macchio….IMO they should have tied it into the series without using plot threads from the show…. So you don’t alienate the general public but also attract Cobra Kai fans…. What was the point in delaying the film until the series was over

That sounds like really bad Hollywood management 101…

They didn’t try to replace a mark Hamill character in it too, did they?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

With the success of Cobra Kai they should have leaned more into Macchio….IMO they should have tied it into the series without using plot threads from the show…. So you don’t alienate the general public but also attract Cobra Kai fans…

I haven’t even watched Cobra Kai yet, and that all completely makes sense. I’m surprised there’s no tie-in.

 

[DKampy]

I haven’t even watched Cobra Kai yet, and that all completely makes sense. I’m surprised there’s no tie-in.

I was late to the s party… but I was surprised how much I enjoyed Cobra Kai…. It was cheesy at times…. But it add to the 80’s aesthetic…, which is the era I came of age… sp it was very much in my wheelhouse

 

[Tha Realest]

It is very helpful to see how a film starts to perform over time, and comparing it to other trajectories of similar films. It’s why they look to see how much of a second weekend drop it has compared to similar films, and reflective of how much audience (or prospective audience) enthusiasm remains for the film.

L&S does have some headwinds in two weeks with the HTTYD live action film coming out, especially since that franchise has historically had a much stronger international pull than domestic US

 

[Disney Irish]

It is very helpful to see how a film starts to perform over time, and comparing it to other trajectories of similar films. It’s why they look to see how much of a second weekend drop it has compared to similar films, and reflective of how much audience (or prospective audience) enthusiasm remains for the film.

I don't think anyone is arguing against comparing performances of films. What is being argued against is the specific calculation for which some posters claim is showing that comparison.

One cannot take the total domestic and divide it by the total international of a film no longer in theaters and say a film just released using that same calculation is lagging. You'll never get the same percentages, ever. That is like trying to compare the completion time of someone that already finished a race with someone who just left the starting block and say they are already behind. No one does comparisons that way, as its a flaw calculation. That type of comparison is only done once a film finishes its theatrical run, because at that point its an apples-to-apples comparison.

What should be done, if one cares about such statistics, is to take a week-by-week comparison and see where each film in its respective run has done domestic compared to international. This is how proper data analysis is done. Doing it any other way is just trying to compare the wrong things in order to tell a specific narrative, which we know some are prone to do around here.

 

[BrianLo]

The predictions have been logged, clearly prematurely. Though I appreciate clear predictions. This reminds me of not really getting the impact of the Christmas holiday play.

I think the point might solidify coming out of the weekend how you can’t compare a domestic holiday weekend to an international regular weekend - missing a vital market no less.

 

[Disney Analyst]

With a $400 million budget, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning will struggle to break even.

the “church” of Scientology is probably helping bankroll it. Let it fail.

 

[Disney Irish]

the “church” of Scientology is probably helping bankroll it. Let it fail.

That didn’t work out too well for them last they did it with Travolta and Battlefield Earth.