Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

At 2.25X that would have to have a huge couple of weeks and I just don't see that happening with the release calendar now heating up. Ballerina next week basically is the same audience, so that'll suck up any oxygen that M:I had going for it in my opinion. The only hope for it would be Father's day the following week, but with How to Train your Dragon, Stitch, Karate Kid, and Ballerina, I think there is too much in theaters for it to be an option.

So I guess we'll see but I'm just not optimistic for it like I am other films.

That and nobody seems to care about these movies anymore

 

[BrianLo]

Two things:

1. Why is everyone convinced that the “break even points” keep dropping? That’s opposite of 99.999% of every documents cost in the History of this here planet…

Not at all, I actually raised it for Stitch. It’s when the production budgets are wildly different from tent pole norms. For example, in order to have the same break points, you’d have to agree that Mission Impossibles marketing and other costs were also 4X that of Stitch. I don’t think any of us believe that.

As Irish said it was a 425M breakpoint on the biggest flop in history. But a 900M on profit. Which is clearly sufficiently absurd.

2. Wouldn’t these have been in production long before the release of Maverick?

Yeah…that one held in the can for a couple of extra years…but the big cash in wasn’t too long ago

The second part started filming after Maverick, but before Dead Reckoning One’s mediocre financial performance. Mediocre for the production spend at least. I guess they had gone too far to change course.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not at all, I actually raised it for Stitch. It’s when the production budgets are wildly different from tent pole norms. For example, in order to have the same break points, you’d have to agree that Mission Impossibles marketing and other costs were also 4X that of Stitch. I don’t think any of us believe that.

As Irish said it was a 425M breakpoint on the biggest flop in history. But a 900M on profit. Which is clearly is absurd

I think we are going along with a shell game of late…

These costs didn’t all of sudden “come in line” in the last couple of years as they started posting frequent flops on the board.

It’s really convenient and sometimes convenience is a lie

I don’t think stitch cost $100…I don’t believe the actual all in marketing budgets of really anything quoted these days…and no way cap 4 conveniently was $200…that $296 and change number keeps popping back up (reshoots cost more for what you get…never less)

But that’s just me and the tinfoil is too tight

 

[Disney Irish]

Didn’t they have a combined shoot for the last two movies though?

They were suppose to, but there was a delay due to the pandemic and then the Hollywood strikes. Its why Ving didn't come back for Stitch unlike the other voice cast as both Stitch and M:I8 were filming at the same time in 2024.

That and nobody seems to care about these movies anymore

I think if it had released into a less crowded period it might have had a shot, but once it has major competition well its no longer an option in my opinion.

 

[brideck]

I think I’m on record of saying that there’s a mass overestimation of legs in this little think tank…

Grosses after week 3-4 are most consistently not even worth noting.

There are exceptions to the rules of course

But a good bet is thunderbolts ain’t one of them.

And besides…cap 4 was a failure…so we need a better measuring stick

Would you take realistic estimation of legs? [Note: There is no argument being made that anything that follows designates a success.]

Cap 4 made a touch over $20m domestically (and presumably about the same internationally) from the comparable point in its release (going into its 5th weekend) to when it finally disappeared from screens. Thunderbolts* has had marginally better legs than Cap 4 (albeit from a lower opening starting point).

So yeah, it should make somewhere around $40m yet from the global box office before it's done. Brian is not wrong to call out that Forbes article as being inappropriately pessimistic.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Would you take realistic estimation of legs? [Note: There is no argument being made that anything that follows designates a success.]

Cap 4 made a touch over $20m domestically (and presumably about the same internationally) from the comparable point in its release (going into its 5th weekend) to when it finally disappeared from screens. Thunderbolts* has had marginally better legs than Cap 4 (albeit from a lower opening starting point).

So yeah, it should make somewhere around $40m yet from the global box office before it's done. Brian is not wrong to call out that Forbes article as being inappropriately pessimistic.

Is see his point…it’s a risky assertion for a Forbes article

But $20…$40…is nothing in today’s dollars. And will be less tomorrow…and on and on

 

[TsWade2]

Based on the results of Elio, I guess it’s either the end of Pixar or the end of the originals! It’s sequels forever! I’m afraid Pixar will have to cancel all the originals and stick to sequels!WDAS has Zootopia 2 coming later this year, so they’re safe for now. But I think they should end originals as well. Nobody likes originals anymore! What is this world coming to?

 

[Disney Irish]

Based on the results of Elio, I guess it’s either the end of Pixar or the end of the originals! It’s sequels forever! I’m afraid Pixar will have to cancel all the originals and stick to sequels!WDAS has Zootopia 2 coming later this year, so they’re safe for now. But I think they should end originals as well. Nobody likes originals anymore! What is this world coming to?

Pixar literally has an original movie releasing on March 6th 2026 called Hoppers. So no it’s not the end of Pixar or originals no matter what happens with Elio.

 

[TsWade2]

Pixar literally has an original movie releasing on March 6th 2026 called Hoppers. So no it’s not the end of Pixar or originals no matter what happens with Elio.

Hoppers might flop too! So maybe Disney and Pixar will just have to stick sequels to survive. I know fans will not like it, but there’s no other choice! The originals that’s in the works must be cancelled!

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Box Office Pro has Elio tracking for $35-$45 million in its first weekend

As a comparison, Elemental opened to $29.6 million and Lightyear opened to $50.5 million

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Box Office Pro has Elio tracking for $35-$45 million in its first weekend

As a comparison, Elemental opened to $29.6 million and Lightyear opened to $50.5 million

So really has an uphill climb if that holds true

A good movie can overcome…so there’s that

 

[TsWade2]

Box Office Pro has Elio tracking for $35-$45 million in its first weekend

As a comparison, Elemental opened to $29.6 million and Lightyear opened to $50.5 million

And because of that, all the originals must be cancelled! I’m sorry, but Pixar and WDAS have to do sequels from now on to survive! If nobody wants to see originals anymore, then I guess we have to let them go for the sake of the company!

 

[DKampy]

The second part started filming after Maverick, but before Dead Reckoning One’s mediocre financial performance. Mediocre for the production spend at least. I guess they had gone too far to change course.

That’s true…. However the spend is ridiculous for both movies from the get go...considering Mission Impossible has never been a billion dollar franchise…

 

[Disney Irish]

Hoppers might flop too! So maybe Disney and Pixar will just have to stick sequels to survive. I know fans will not like it, but there’s no other choice! The originals that’s in the works must be cancelled!

No offense but you’re being overdramatic.

 

[Ghost93]

What I find funny is that no one has mentioned that M:I8 has basically cratered and is looking to be one of the biggest flops of 2025 if not of all time compared to its budget. All of Disney's recent flops look like successes compared to it.

If it doesn't improve over the coming weeks Paramount/Skydance looks to lose between $300M-$500M depending on how much they paid for marketing.

With a $400 million budget, Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning will struggle to break even.

And honestly, I can't say I feel to bad too for the movie. Unlike Dead Reckoning — which was a legitimately great action film that was unfortunately overlooked due to the Barbenheimer phenomenon, "the Final Reckoning" is a mess. In fact, I would go as far as to say it's the worst Mission Impossible film.

Over the past two weeks I binged the previous 7 Mission Impossible movies — most of which I've seen only once. Overall, I think they hold up pretty well. But Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning is nearly ruined by terrible and forced exposition (the kind of ham-fisted exposition we saw in the first third of Captain America: Brave New World) and CONSTANT and intrusive flashbacks to previous movies. The flashbacks ruined the movie's pacing and tried too hard to spoon-feed everything to the audience. It was kind of insulting.

I also didn't like how overly serious it was an how they tried to turn Ethan Hunt into a sacrificial Jesus-type character.


Still, I think the Final Reckoning is still worth a watch if you are a fan of the series. There's an underwater sequence in a submarine that is one of the best parts of ANY Mission Impossible movie.

My personal ranking of the series would be:

1. Mission Impossible: Fallout
2. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning
3. Mission Impossible III
4. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation
5. Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
6. Mission Impossible II **
7. Mission Impossible
8. Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning.

** The original Mission Impossible is objectively a better movie than MI2, but MI2 — with John Woo's highly stylized directing — is SO cheesy and dated and over-the-top that I think it's more entertaining in a "it's so bad its good" kind of way. I understand that unintentional camp is not what most Mission Impossible fans are looking for, but I personally found it amusing and rather hilarious.

 

[Disney Irish]

And because of that, all the originals must be cancelled! I’m sorry, but Pixar and WDAS have to do sequels from now on to survive! If nobody wants to see originals anymore, then I guess we have to let them go for the sake of the company!

I’m not sure where this panic you have is coming from, did you watch another Pro YouTube video? Told you to stop watching that hack. Anyways take a deep breath, everything will be fine.

 

[TsWade2]

I’m not sure where this panic you have is coming from, did you watch another Pro YouTube video? Told you to stop watching that hack. Anyways take a deep breath, everything will be fine.

Not this time. But you’re right, I’ll try to calm down. But I’m not liking what I’m seeing for Elio. I blame either Bob Iger or maybe those writers are being political!

 

[Ghost93]

Elio has an unfortunate release date. Would have been much better if it had come out in March, when there was less competition for family audiences.

Of course, Disney had Snow White come out in March and they probably wren't expecting it to bomb as hard as it did. Still, with all the pre-release controversy of Snow White, I think in retrospect it may have been better for Disney to have that movie to have come out in June instead of Elio. Because so many other blockbusters are being released in June, there would be less focus in the media on Snow White flopping. Snow White bombed when there was hardly any competition, and there was a lot more press coverage about it, because there was nothing else to talk about. And the lack of competition made its poor performance all the more embarrassing.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Based on the results of Elio, I guess it’s either the end of Pixar or the end of the originals! It’s sequels forever! I’m afraid Pixar will have to cancel all the originals and stick to sequels!WDAS has Zootopia 2 coming later this year, so they’re safe for now. But I think they should end originals as well. Nobody likes originals anymore! What is this world coming to?

I’d like to correct people in general misusing that word. What is not original about Zootopia 2? Has that movie been made before? Has that story been told before? Was Empire Strikes Back not original?

It’s brand new material. It’s their own IP. It’s original.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I have never seen any mission impossible movies, and have no interest. I watched the original television series when it was out.

With that said, keeping this group consistent:

Much like the Disney movies made during the same time, including Snow White, the budget for this latest Tom Cruise project was not planned to be as high as it became. The strikes and the pandemic drastically raised their costs.

Also, much like we say about Disney films, more money will be made on the back end. It may not break even for this particular film, but you’ll recall I posted something a few pages back explaining how this film increases the reach and profitability of the entire franchise, which brings in tens of millions every year.