Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think there’s a blowback when we say the word “legs”. Like some prognostication that every movie is going to pull an Elemental or Mufasa and rescue itself from the brink.

But by and large I’m often just referring to what’s normal. We’ve already seen Thunderbolts pass Cap 1 despite the Forbes article saying that was an impossible task… five days later.

The same applies to Stitch. It brought in 176M. A normal multiple is another 2X or 350M. A good multiple is easily 500M more. Thinking the film will struggle to hit 850 is a misread after the data we have coming out of this weekend. That would be an unusual crash and burn for a film that had an exceptional international hold, a better domestic hold than figured (we’re measuring a domestic holiday week on week) and an unreleased market that’s not unreasonable to expect some strong change out of. 850 is no longer the correct prediction.

I think you’re right here.

The issue is we’ve had the same boiler plate predictions of “legs” on many films the last 3-4 films. Most have not had any really…or insignificant ones like the last however many marvels since guardians 3.

A few have…Mufasa definitely…elemental too…a few other mostly non disney releases as well…

But those are the exceptions now. Most of the popcorn tends to get stale on the same timeframe where the theaters-home-stream model is currently

There’s also no tool that really captures international due to the staggered release nature. See my sneak edit on Japan above. I won’t commit to 110M…

Underestimate Japanese love of Stitch and Hawaii to your peril.

There actually is…it’s called a memory and some research for patterns.

That should be good enough for discussion purposes…we’re all layman with opinions here anyway

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh

…you’re trying to shine these flubs up…next pivot is to somehow when no one watches them on the stream that’ll fix it.

Blah blah…yada yada…

I’m beginning to appreciate some of your positions…not the wrong one like the MCU blind spot…but a lot of the others.

You’re misconstruing what is being said and still trying to make this about expectations of the MCU.

All I’m trying to do is to keep the numbers honest, again this is the box office thread.

As far as the rest on its potential earnings post-theatrical, you know where I stand on that. So I’ll just close by repeating what I’ve said before, this movie won’t end up losing a dime for Disney and will make it money. And to make you happy, no it’s probably not in the amount Disney expected. But I’m sure any profit is good profit and they won’t look at it negatively.

 

[Dranth]

But found no audience…which Is a big problem for the ole Dis…

Not hard to perform the autopsy here…they’ve made mistakes

I haven't seen it because I had no desire to and that is Disney's fault for releasing too many mediocre, bad or just boring MCU movies. However, it could still serve a purpose as it has had good word of mouth. A few solid/good movies in a row could do wonders for the whole franchise. Obviously they would prefer a smash hit, but big picture, some consistency might do them better in the long run at this point.

Anyway, if and when people pick it up on streaming, assuming it is as good as folks say, maybe more show up down the line. If not, they will just stop making them eventually.

 

[Ghost93]

That seems pretty patronising and essentialising to me.

In what way? Tony was saying there was an anti-woke campaign against the film, but a majority of the complaints I've personally seen have nothing to do with criticism of it being too woke, but for being less successful than the 2002 film in terms of Hawaiian representation. Maybe it's just the people I follow on Twitter (Or the people the algorithm feeds me on Twitter, who knows at this point), but a lot of people seem to feel the 2002 film was unusually good for its time, whereas the 2025 film is a step backwards.

Another major criticism of the remake is Pleakley not wearing a dress like he did in the original and in the TV series. https://www.out.com/film/lilo-and-stitch-review-pleakley-drag#rebelltitem1

The movie is a box office success, so it's not like these criticisms are going to tank the film. But these criticisms do seem to reinforce my suspicions that the original movie was already perfect and that there was no need for this remake and that any remake would likely be worse than the original.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I haven't seen it because I had no desire to and that is Disney's fault for releasing too many mediocre, bad or just boring MCU movies. However, it could still serve a purpose as it has had good word of mouth. A few solid/good movies in a row could do wonders for the whole franchise. Obviously they would prefer a smash hit, but big picture, some consistency might do them better in the long run at this point.

Anyway, if and when people pick it up on streaming, assuming it is as good as folks say, maybe more show up down the line. If not, they will just stop making them eventually.

Steaming is a separate issue…it keeps getting lumped together on the bad performances

Disney’s goal in spending $300+ to produce marvel films is NOT to fail at the box office and then throw it into the catalogue where “maybe some people will pick it up?”

Now that may happen…it’s a consolation prize…but the goal of their big tentpole movies is ALWAYS to generate cross sales and more demand for material.

It’s just silly for anyone to suggest otherwise. We know the animal that’s caged here

 

[Ghost93]

I haven't seen it because I had no desire to and that is Disney's fault for releasing too many mediocre, bad or just boring MCU movies. However, it could still serve a purpose as it has had good word of mouth. A few solid/good movies in a row could do wonders for the whole franchise. Obviously they would prefer a smash hit, but big picture, some consistency might do them better in the long run at this point.

Anyway, if and when people pick it up on streaming, assuming it is as good as folks say, maybe more show up down the line. If not, they will just stop making them eventually.

Thunderbolts IS a pretty good movie and I wish it was performing better at the box office.

Unfortunately, I don't think there was much hype for it since the characters it focuses on mostly come from what many view to be mediocre MCU films (Black Widow, Ant-man and the Wasp) and a Disney Plus show (Falcon and the Winter Soldier). Many moviegoers may not have had Disney Plus and therefore have no idea who John Walker is. And those who did may not have liked the show, which had a more mixed reception than WandaVision or Loki. I'm sure a lot of people don't remember who Ghost is from Ant-man and the Wasp.

The movie is most directly a sequel to 2021's Black Widow, which got mixed reviews and underperformed due to being released in the middle of the pandemic. Florence Pugh's Yelena was easily the best part of Black Widow (and she's the best part of Thunderbolts as well), but I think her character's debut was somewhat harmed by being attached to a bad release date and a movie that a lot fans are mixed on. (I personally think Black Widow was an okay film, it just felt like it came out at the wrong time, after Natasha had already died. Would have made more sense to be released in-between 2016-2018, when the story chronologically takes place in-between Civil War and Infinity War).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There's actually a lot of progressive people who dislike the ending of the remake and criticizing it as anti-indigenous/pro-colonialism. I'm sure that wasn't at all Disney's intent, but people are reading it that way.

I'm not seeing the remake, but not because it's woke or anti-woke. I simply have no desire to see a remake to a movie that was made in the 21st century. It's waaaaay too soon. I also think the original animated film is perfect and there is no need for a new adaptation, other than to advanced Disney's continued assault on traditional animation.

Well those people are starting to have the track record of the Italian army…they are losing every battle.
The ending changes really aren’t a hill to die on…this is not really a political battle that needs to be fought. I’m no pearl clutcher…and I think they did a reasonable story alteration.

That seems pretty patronising and essentialising to me.

It doesn’t really appear to be such…

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Thunderbolts IS a pretty good movie and I wish it was performing better at the box office.

Unfortunately, I don't think there was much hype for it since the characters it focuses on mostly come from what many view to be mediocre MCU films (Black Widow, Ant-man and the Wasp) and a Disney Plus show (Falcon and the Winter Soldier). Many moviegoers may not have had Disney Plus and therefore have no idea who John Walker is. And those who did may not have liked the show, which had a more mixed reception than WandaVision or Loki. I'm sure a lot of people don't remember who Ghost is from Ant-man and the Wasp.

The movie is most directly a sequel to 2021's Black Widow, which got mixed reviews and underperformed due to being released in the middle of the pandemic. Florence Pugh's Yelena was easily the best part of Black Widow (and she's the best part of Thunderbolts as well), but I think her character's debut was somewhat harmed by being attached to a bad release date and a movie that a lot fans are mixed on. (I personally think Black Widow was an okay film, it just felt like it came out at the wrong time, after Natasha had already died. Would have made more sense to be released in-between 2016-2018, when the story chronologically takes place in-between Civil War and Infinity War).

The film could have used a more marketable villain too.

 

[Nevermore525]

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 4 Superman cost an alleged $225M. May need to get to around $700M+ to break even at the box office.

Can Warner's DC Studios Rise From the Ashes With 'Superman?' | Analysis

James Gunn's Superman reboot not only aims to restart the entire DC universe but is one of Warner Bros.' most crucial releases of the year

www.thewrap.com

 

[DisneyHead123]

I don't think movies overseas run longer, but maybe they do? If anything, I'd imagine they have more competition from local/national movies in their respective lands. Generally though, the recent live action remakes from Disney have had foreign box office that was 150% or higher than the domestic box office.

Even disastrous Snow White got 136% of its domestic box office overseas. Probably because some of Rachel Zegler's publicity hand grenades she was throwing at her own movie got lost in translation over there.



For those of us keeping score, that's a foreign box office that is 117% of its domestic total so far.

Hmm. I know “It will have legs!!” can sound like a cry of desperation, but I just don’t see why this movie wouldn’t do well overseas. It’s a fluffy adorable family film that is obviously good enough to bring in a huge domestic audience. I still think people are just wary of Disney after a few years of inconsistent offerings and word of mouth will change some minds.

 

[LittleBuford]

In what way?

The idea that Nani’s decision (I’ll keep it vague to stay out of spoiler territory) is somehow a betrayal of native values strikes me as a very reductive way of looking at Hawaiian culture. It denies her agency, assuming that she can only have made such a decision under colonialist influence, and it demands that she behave in a certain way to remain true to her identity, ignoring her individuality and the particular circumstances of her situation.

(None of what I’ve written means I think the remake is better than the original—I don’t! I’m just addressing a particular kind of criticism that is being made of the revised ending.)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The idea that Nani’s decision (I’ll keep it vague to stay out of spoiler territory) is somehow a betrayal of native values strikes me as a very reductive way of looking at Hawaiian culture. It denies her agency, assuming that she can only have made such a decision under colonialist influence, and it demands that she behave in a certain way to remain true to her identity, ignoring her individuality and the particular circumstances of her situation.

(None of what I’ve written means I think the remake is better than the original—I don’t! I’m just addressing a particular kind of criticism that is being made of the revised ending.)

A 20 year old can’t take care of a six year old either from a maturity or a financial angle

What are we doing here?

The way to win the “progress fight”…is not to contradict common sense at every turn. No need to die on such minor battlefields

 

[Ghost93]

The idea that Nani’s decision (I’ll keep it vague to stay out of spoiler territory) is somehow a betrayal of native values strikes me as a very reductive way of looking at Hawaiian culture. It denies her agency, assuming that she can only have made such a decision under colonialist influence, and it demands that she behave in a certain way to remain true to her identity, ignoring her individuality and the particular circumstances of her situation.

(None of what I’ve written means I think the remake is better than the original—I don’t! I’m just addressing a particular kind of criticism that is being made of the revised ending.)

Oh I see. I thought you meant it was patronizing that I brought up that I saw some people had that objection.

I can't really comment on whether or not the ending is offensive or not, as I'm not Hawaiian and don't have that kind of personal stake in the matter. However, It's possible that only some people were legitimately offended by the ending, and then thousands others hopped on the bandwagon of bashing the ending because they dislike the live action remake for other reasons, but want a "moral" excuse to justify hating on it.

Sometimes it's fine to simply dislike a movie without needing a moral high ground to do so.

I also can't say how I feel about the ending change until I see the movie. Some things may sound like a bad idea on paper, but make sense in execution. Although I'm not likely to see the movie until it arrives on Disney Plus. I'm not boycotting the Lilo & Stitch remake, I just have no excitement or interest in it. I feel similarly about the How to Train Your Dragon remake coming out later this year. It's feel these movies are coming out way too soon after their original animated counterparts.

 

[LittleBuford]

Oh I see. I thought you meant it was patronizing that I brought up that I saw some people had that objection.

No, not at all! Sorry for not being clearer!

I can't really comment on whether or not the ending is offensive or not, as I'm not Hawaiian and don't have that kind of personal stake in the matter. However, It's possible that only some people were legitimately offended by the ending, and then thousands others hopped on the bandwagon of bashing the ending because they dislike the live action remake for other reasons, but want a "moral" excuse to justify hating on it.

Sometimes it's fine to simply dislike a movie without needing a moral high ground to do so.

I also can't say how I feel about the ending change until I see the movie. Some things may sound like a bad idea on paper, but make sense in execution. Although I'm not likely to see the movie until it arrives on Disney Plus. I'm not boycotting the Lilo & Stitch remake, I just have no excitement or interest in it. I feel similarly about the How to Train Your Dragon remake coming out later this year. It's feel these movies are coming out way too soon after their original animated counterparts.

All very well said.

 

[Dranth]

Steaming is a separate issue…it keeps getting lumped together on the bad performances

Disney’s goal in spending $300+ to produce marvel films is NOT to fail at the box office and then throw it into the catalogue where “maybe some people will pick it up?”

Now that may happen…it’s a consolation prize…but the goal of their big tentpole movies is ALWAYS to generate cross sales and more demand for material.

It’s just silly for anyone to suggest otherwise. We know the animal that’s caged here

Sure, of course they want to make a ton of money on every movie, but after the decline post End Game, rebuilding with a string of good, solid movies that restore some interest and trust is a must. Monetary value of streaming aside (isn't relevant to the point I am trying to make), streaming becomes important as people see it and it moves them a little closer to springing for the next one.

Anyway, I'm sure they will drop another one that hits big at some point, but not all of them can and the ones that don't, need to be good enough to keep people interested.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sure, of course they want to make a ton of money on every movie, but after the decline post End Game, rebuilding with a string of good, solid movies that restore some interest and trust is a must. Monetary value of streaming aside (isn't relevant to the point I am trying to make), streaming becomes important as people see it and it moves them a little closer to springing for the next one.

Anyway, I'm sure they will drop another one that hits big at some point, but not all of them can and the ones that don't, need to be good enough to keep people interested.

I think marvel needs to go on the shelf for Awhile

As is ALWAYS the way it is with comic book movies. They’re get over exploited and stale…it’s inevitable.

This next one looks not really good either

 

[Ghost93]

I think marvel needs to go on the shelf for Awhile

As is ALWAYS the way it is with comic book movies. They’re get over exploited and stale…it’s inevitable.

This next one looks not really good either

I think 2021-2024 did too much damage to the superhero genre in general. There needs to be like a 5-year break without superheroes, but neither Warner Bros. or Disney is going to allow that to happen.

In 2021 we had FIVE MCU or MCU-adjacent movies in the span of six months (Black Widow, Shang-Chi, Sony's Venom 2, Eternals and Spider-man: No Way Home). That year also saw the release of FIVE Disney Plus MCU shows (WandaVision, Falcon and Winter Soldier, Loki, What if? and Hawkeye). We also had DC's the Suicide Squad.

2022 had three Marvel films (Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Thor: Love and Thunder and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) and three Disney Plus TV shows (Moon Knight, Ms. Marvel and She-Hulk). Sony released the embarrassment that was "Morbius" while DC released Peacemaker, The Batman and Black Adam. Many people were likely still struggling to catch up with the onslaught of superhero content from 2021 before they could even catch up to all of this.

By the end of 2022, I think audiences were already beginning to feel superhero fatigue with so much content of varying quality. But 2023 is what REALLY killed the superhero genre with an onslaught of bad superhero films — Ant-man and the Wasp Quantumania, Shazam Fury of the Gods, the Flash, The Marvels and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. Not to mention, we had the abysmal MCU show "Secret Invasion" and the mediocre "Blue Beetle" thrown into the mix. Guardians 3 was pretty solid, but it was the only good thing in a sea of crap.

Marvel tried to take a break in 2024 by only releasing Deadpool and Wolverine in theaters, but I think people still didn't get the chance to take a break from superheroes since Sony was pumping out several (BAD) MCU-adjacent films like Madame Web, Venom 3 and Kraven the Hunter.

 

[DKampy]

This next one looks not really good either

The last one actually was good according to most who watched…. Critics and general audience…. I know people like to harp on nobody knows these characters… No one knew any of the characters in GotG…. Plus the idea of casting the chubby guy from Parks and Rec as the lead was perplexing to some l…that was a risk and so was Thunderbolts..,, I hope those involved don’t become risk adverse… as those usually produce the most interesting results

We have no idea how F4 turns our until it hits theaters… but there are reports the test screenings were excellent

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The last one actually was good according to most who watched…. Critics and general audience…. I know people like to harp on nobody knows these characters… No one knew any of the characters in GotG…. Plus the idea of casting the chubby guy from Parks and Rec as the lead was perplexing to some l…that was a risk and so was Thunderbolts..,, I hope those involved don’t become risk adverse… as those usually produce the most interesting results

We have no idea how F4 turns our until it hits theaters… but there are reports the test screenings were excellent

It’s a franchise that never performs up to task and some kinda gunnsian/incredibles mid century mod look…

We’ll see how it does. Not optimistic…but not definitive. I have been on a heater with my predictions this year so far. Think it’s gonna be a bad summer for the ole mouse

 

[celluloid]

I think marvel needs to go on the shelf for Awhile

As is ALWAYS the way it is with comic book movies. They’re get over exploited and stale…it’s inevitable.

This next one looks not really good either

They definitely need that sweet spot. There needs to be a 3-five year where they can make something good without relying on it, and get that at least hope for Avengers level or better interest than now.

But not wait too long before it becomes Westerns, because right now, they are going to milk it until it becomes this generation's westerns.

Sinners shows us the original storytelling/spin on horror epic that people are willing to appreciate.


Family films and horror are the top two genres right now. And both can succeed with their counter programming.