Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
As it stands now, Lilo & Stitch is underperforming overseas as a percentage of domestic box office almost as badly as The Little Mermaid did. That's an Oof!, especially in Scandinavia's box office.
“After two weekends on the big screen, the live-action ‘Lilo’ remake has grossed $330.7 million internationally and $280.1 million domestically.”

 
Last edited:

DKampy

Well-Known Member
“After two weekends on the big screen, the live-action ‘Lilo’ remake has grossed $330.7 million internationally and $280.1 million domestically.”

To quote @TP2000 ”oof”
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
“After two weekends on the big screen, the live-action ‘Lilo’ remake has grossed $330.7 million internationally and $280.1 million domestically.”


1 billion incoming.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
No one here is anywhere close to being in the movie industry…or they wouldn’t be here. Just like people who “know”
Parks plans aren’t here either…cause they wouldn’t be bothered with it.

This is a fan forum…a Disney one…only certain bugs are attracted to the light. It’s not an academic think tank or cultural round table here

Thank you for the reminder! Even I sometimes can be convinced I'm chatting with "experts" in the topic's field, when clearly none of us are experts at anything we discuss here; E Ticket hourly capacity, box office trends, executive strategy for mature park development, WDI priorities in modern storytelling, etc., etc.

As for box office and the movie industry, I'd imagine the waiter at a Silver Lake brunch place is more informed on that topic than we are! :cool:

What I’ve gleaned from this exchange is that it is common for the overseas box office to start out relatively slower but pick up over time… I wonder why that is? Do movies tend to run longer overseas?

I don't think movies overseas run longer, but maybe they do? If anything, I'd imagine they have more competition from local/national movies in their respective lands. Generally though, the recent live action remakes from Disney have had foreign box office that was 150% or higher than the domestic box office.

Even disastrous Snow White got 136% of its domestic box office overseas. Probably because some of Rachel Zegler's publicity hand grenades she was throwing at her own movie got lost in translation over there.

“After two weekends on the big screen, the live-action ‘Lilo’ remake has grossed $330.7 million internationally and $280.1 million domestically.”

For those of us keeping score, that's a foreign box office that is 117% of its domestic total so far.

To quote @TP2000 ”oof”

It's actually spelled "Oof". It's almost always it's own sentence. It's an old Swedish thing my parents and grandparents used for little unfortunate events that deserved, well, an.... Oof! 🫤 It's actual origins were the Norwegian language "Uff da!", which was also used, but much less often, in my Swedish household. But "Uff da" was sort of Americanized into Oof! by the mid 20th century by my grandparents. And now you can use it too! 🥳 🇸🇪🇺🇸
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Here's the first pass at weekend box office, gang! Lilo & Stitch dropped 57% and Thunderbolts dropped 50% from last weekend.

It does not appear as though Thunderbolts will hit $400 Million globally at this point. And with a production budget of $180 Million, that means it will lose a substantial amount of money for Burbank at the box office. That's definitely an Oof!

As always, final numbers will be available for this weekend by tomorrow afternoon.

Weekend First Pass.jpg


 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
1 billion incoming.

Will it though? It would seem to be more on a trajectory towards $850 Million or less, even with Japan's debut next weekend.

Regardless of whether it makes $800 Million or $1 Billion at the global box office, it's a huge money maker for Burbank and the Rideback Ranch kids over the hill. Thanks to its very modest $100 Million production costs from Rideback Ranch, it already crossed into profitability just as this weekend was starting.

I wonder if Burbank learns a lesson from that? The cubicle army on the Burbank lot can't be pleased at what the success of Lilo & Stitch means for their future.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
It's actually spelled "Oof". It's almost always it's own sentence. It's an old Swedish thing my parents and grandparents used for little unfortunate events that deserved, well, an.... Oof! 🫤It's actual origins were the Norwegian language "Uff da!", which was also used, but much less often, in my Swedish household. But "Uff da" was sort of Americanized into Oof! by the mid 20th century by my grandparents. And now you can use it too! 🥳 🇸🇪🇺🇸
Though I don't doubt you have family and cultural reasons for using it, the English "oof" is a cognate of the Swedish "uff" rather than a derivative of it (it exists in many Germanic languages). It is attested as far back as the eighteenth century.

 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
1 billion incoming.
Not sure about that…

But if true it shows how easy this is because I thought that months ago 🤪

At first glance….looks like it slow a little more than I thought domestically but picked up internationally?

Let’s see if it becomes “the choice of grandma” as the rest of US schools dump out?
 
Last edited:

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Here's the first pass at weekend box office, gang! Lilo & Stitch dropped 57% and Thunderbolts dropped 50% from last weekend.

It does not appear as though Thunderbolts will hit $400 Million globally at this point. And with a production budget of $180 Million, that means it will lose a substantial amount of money for Burbank at the box office. That's definitely an Oof!

As always, final numbers will be available for this weekend by tomorrow afternoon.

View attachment 861860

The same thing was said about Cap4 and look it hit over $400M, $413.6M to be exact. Thunderbolts has been tracking ahead of Cap4 for the most part since its second weekend, and is only $3.8M behind it now domestically at its same point at the 31 day mark. Btw, that is how you do a real comparison.

So I’d say it still has a good shot at breaking $400M, and coming in around the same as Cap4.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The same thing was said about Cap4 and look it hit over $400M, $413.6M to be exact. Thunderbolts has been tracking ahead of Cap4 for the most part since its second weekend, and is only $3.8M behind it now domestically at its same point at the 31 day mark. Btw, that is how you do a real comparison.

So I’d say it still has a good shot at breaking $400M, and coming in around the same as Cap4.
JHC…get off the marvel flops for the good of humanity
Stop trying to parse them.

They’re wet farts…they need to do way the hell better
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
At $610M WW on it second weekend, basically doubling its first weekend. So I wouldn’t say it’s for sure hitting $1B, but at this point I’d be surprised if it doesn’t.
You would say…there’s also a disconnect between the reality - which is movies makes like 80% of their box office gross or more in the first 3 weeks - and some opinions around here.

This one has a shot because of what it is and a lack of options for the target demographics…for sure. But $400 mil after it’s no longer a new release is a hill to climb for sure.

I won’t doubt the little blue animal too much though…I think I’ve been mention all year what he is and why it hit…and also why the others that haven’t, never were gonna
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
JHC…get off the marvel flops for the good of humanity
Stop trying to parse them.

They’re wet farts…they need to do way the hell better
This is a box office discussion thread as I’ve been told many times, I’m discussing the box office. And I’m trying to keep things honest here with the calculations and comparisons. You are more than welcome to join in on the discussion or if you think it’s a waste of time you can bow out. But please refrain from telling me to stop talking about a current movie and how it’s doing at the box office, as many have told me the same.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
The same thing was said about Cap4 and look it hit over $400M, $413.6M to be exact. Thunderbolts has been tracking ahead of Cap4 for the most part since its second weekend, and is only $3.8M behind it now domestically at its same point at the 31 day mark. Btw, that is how you do a real comparison.

So I’d say it still has a good shot at breaking $400M, and coming in around the same as Cap4.

I dunno, I just don't see it.

Thunderbolts is sitting now at $370 Million after this weekend, it had weak legs throughout its entire run, it did not do well overseas, and going into its 6th week it has now flatlined at the box office.

Unless they hold that turkey in 500 theaters through Labor Day, I just don't see how Thunderbolts gets past $400 Million globally. It will lose a lot of money for Burbank at the box office, just as Captain America 4 already did.

Maybe they could sell off the Asterisk for a few bucks to help defray its losses?

How Much Is The Asterisk Worth.jpg
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I dunno, I just don't see it.

Thunderbolts is sitting now at $370 Million after this weekend, it had weak legs throughout its entire run, it did not do well overseas, and going into its 6th week it has now flatlined at the box office.

Unless they hold that turkey in 500 theaters through Labor Day, I just don't see how Thunderbolts gets past $400 Million globally. It will lose a lot of money for Burbank at the box office, just as Captain America 4 already did.

Maybe they could sell off the Asterisk for a few bucks to help defray its losses?

View attachment 861865
You may not see it, but if you actually follow the week-by-week tracking it’s been pulling ahead of Cap4 daily. As I mentioned it’s only $3.8M behind where Cap4 was at the same point. So if it keeps this pace it’ll hit $400M. Or it could fall off and plummet to zero (as unlikely a scenario as that is), the point is don’t call it out just yet.

Also as has been discussed many times, just because it didn’t make profit during theatrical doesn’t mean to won’t turn a profit ever. An MCU movie like this has huge earning potential post-theatrical, so it’ll turn a profit and won’t lose Burbank a dime.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
You would say…there’s also a disconnect between the reality - which is movies makes like 80% of their box office gross or more in the first 3 weeks - and some opinions around here.

This one has a shot because of what it is and a lack of options for the target demographics…for sure. But $400 mil after it’s no longer a new release is a hill to climb for sure.

I won’t doubt the little blue animal too much though…I think I’ve been mention all year what he is and why it hit…and also why the others that haven’t, never were gonna
Stitch is already pulling ahead of where Minecraft was at this point in it run, and it made just under $1B. So as long as it keeps ahead of where Minecraft was I don’t see it having any problem hitting $1B.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I think there’s a blowback when we say the word “legs”. Like some prognostication that every movie is going to pull an Elemental or Mufasa and rescue itself from the brink.

But by and large I’m often just referring to what’s normal. We’ve already seen Thunderbolts pass Cap 1 despite the Forbes article saying that was an impossible task… five days later.

The same applies to Stitch. It brought in 176M. A normal multiple is another 2X or 350M. A good multiple is easily 500M more. Thinking the film will struggle to hit 850 is a misread after the data we have coming out of this weekend. That would be an unusual crash and burn for a film that had an exceptional international hold, a better domestic hold than figured (we’re measuring a domestic holiday week on week) and an unreleased market that’s not unreasonable to expect some strong change out of. 850 is no longer the correct prediction.
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom