Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Prince-1]

That's dissapointing, I was looking forward to part 2.

You’re definitely going to get to see it because it’s already been filmed and ready to be released, but after the dismal performance of part one, I guess they are figuring out what’s the best way to do that.

I would not however put much faith in parts three and four getting filmed.

 

[Prince-1]

The first Horizon movie WAS structured like a TV Pilot, however, with dozens of characters and at least 5 different plotlines introduced and no resolution to any of them. I feel pretty confident that this project will be viewed more fondly once it's actually completed and people can see how these characters evolve and how the plotlines intersect.

I don’t think we’re going to see the full completion of this saga. It was supposed to be a four part movie series, but I cannot see how they’re going to spend the money to film parts three and four after the failure of part one

 

[Ghost93]

I don’t think we’re going to see the full completion of this saga. It was supposed to be a four part movie series, but I cannot see how they’re going to spend the money to film parts three and four after the failure of part one

They already are filming Part 3. It's part 4 I'm unsure if we will get to see.

 

[Prince-1]

They already are filming Part 3. It's part 4 I'm unsure if we will get to see.

You are correct on part three. Well it looks like they are going to lose a lot of money on parts 1-3 so they might as well at least finish the series otherwise there is going to be a lot of storylines unfinished.

 

[Disney Irish]

You are correct on part three. Well it looks like they are going to lose a lot of money on parts 1-3 so they might as well at least finish the series otherwise there is going to be a lot of storylines unfinished.

If they can sell it to a streaming service, like Netflix or Amazon, they aren't necessarily going to lose money. Also remember that Costner self financed a large portion of it, so its a passion project for him. So I don't think he cares too much about the potential of losing money.

 

[Prince-1]

If they can sell it to a streaming service, like Netflix or Amazon, they aren't necessarily going to lose money. Also remember that Costner self financed a large portion of it, so it’s I don’t think it has a chance of making moneya passion project for him. So I don't think he cares too much about the potential of losing money.

I don’t think it is going to make any money even when it’s sold to a streaming service but I hope it does for everyone who is involved in making it. And it’s reported that Costner financed approximately $38 million and the rest was put up by private investors so he’s not going to lose that much but yes, it’s definitely a passion project of his.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t think it is going to make any money even when it’s sold to a streaming service but I hope it does for everyone who is involved in making it. And it’s reported that Costner financed approximately $38 million and the rest was put up by private investors so he’s not going to lose that much but yes, it’s definitely a passion project of his.

Netflix and Amazon both have a track record of spending a lot for content, so I could see either of them picking up the cost of all 4 films. Especially since the $100M number was thrown around for both parts 1 and 2, and assume parts 3 and 4 would be similar. So that is cheap for both Netflix and Amazon to spend $200-250M for 4 movies.

 

[Prince-1]

Netflix and Amazon both have a track record of spending a lot for content, so I could see either of them picking up the cost of all 4 films. Especially since the $100M number was thrown around for both parts 1 and 2, and assume parts 3 and 4 would be similar. So that is cheap for both Netflix and Amazon to spend $200-250M for 4 movies.

But will they spend that much on a movie that bombed in the theater. It will land somewhere but not sure how much they will pay for something that is in obvious trouble. Time will tell.

 

[Disney Irish]

But will they spend that much on a movie that bombed in the theater. It will land somewhere but not sure how much they will pay for something that is in obvious trouble. Time will tell.

Well if they get 4 movies for the price of one, yeah I think they might, even if it "failed" in theaters. Netflix for example has spent $200M or more on just one movie in the past, and that was for movies that never went to theaters. So if they can spend that same amount to get 4 movies, it would be a steal comparatively.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

But will they spend that much on a movie that bombed in the theater. It will land somewhere but not sure how much they will pay for something that is in obvious trouble. Time will tell.

I imagine it will benefit from the prestige factor of being a theatrical release, which can enhance awareness and interest compared to direct-to-streaming content.

Just like iTunes does the "Bring the Theater Home!" selling point for any theatrical movie, even if it opened a week earlier and made $87.

Even if reviews and revenue were so so, it represents a known quantity that Netflix can sell to its' customer base. I'm sure it's better than most of their original movies.

 

[Prince-1]

I imagine it will benefit from the prestige factor of being a theatrical release, which can enhance awareness and interest compared to direct-to-streaming content.

Just like iTunes does the "Bring the Theater Home!" selling point for any theatrical movie, even if it opened a week earlier and made $87.

Even if reviews and revenue were so so, it represents a known quantity that Netflix can sell to its' customer base. I'm sure it's better than most of their original movies.

Horizons will be streaming on Max not Netflix. It will be hitting PVOD this Tuesday. Hopefully it will find an audience at home because I doubt part 2 will be released in the theaters.

 

[Disney Irish]

Horizons will be streaming on Max not Netflix. It will be hitting PVOD this Tuesday. Hopefully it will find an audience at home because I doubt part 2 will be released in the theaters.

That will only be for the first film, there is no streaming info yet for the other 3. As we've seen WB do before, they could license the first one to Netflix after a short period of time, and Netflix could pick up the other 3.

 

[Prince-1]

That will only be for the first film, there is no streaming info yet for the other 3. As we've seen WB do before, they could license the first one to Netflix after a short period of time, and Netflix could pick up the other 3.

Could but my guess is they will be staying on Max.

 

[Disney Irish]

Could but my guess is they will be staying on Max.

Its possible, but WB has been licensing out a lot of the content to Netflix lately to recoup costs. So it wouldn't surprising for it to happen here too.

 

[DKampy]

I believe that Box office is tough to weigh how successful a studio feels a film is doing… Surely Inside Out is a success and Horizons is a failure… but what about the inbbetween

Fly Me to The Moon had a one hundred million production budget… surely it is not expected to make it’s budget back… the film was originally intended for streaming but moved to theatrical with minimal advertising… it feels like theatrical is intended as advertisement for the Apple + service

The data.has shown movies do better on streaming if in theaters first… we even have old movies in theaters years ago such as The Judge popping off in the top 10…I believe other than Netflix were going to see less streaming only movies… even Disney’s next film Alien: Romulus was originally intended for streaming… I am sure some movies are designed to prop up a streaming service…it makes everything difficult in determining what is a success or not

 

[Disney Irish]

I believe that Box office is tough to weigh how successful a studio feels a film is doing… Surely Inside Out is a success and Horizons is a failure… but what about the inbbetween

Fly Me to The Moon had a one hundred million production budget… surely it is not expected to make it’s budget back… the film was originally intended for streaming but moved to theatrical with minimal advertising… it feels like theatrical is intended as advertisement for the Apple + service

The data.has shown movies do better on streaming if in theaters first… we even have old movies in theaters years ago such as The Judge popping off in the top 10…I believe other than Netflix were going to see less streaming only movies… even Disney’s next film Alien: Romulus was originally intended for streaming… I am sure some movies are designed to prop up a streaming service…it makes everything difficult in determining what is a success or not

Agreed for the most part, though I think there will still be streaming only movies as the landscape just makes it easy to do so, they've replaced the direct-to-video model. But the take away is that no one, including the armchair box office accountants here, know what is deemed a "success" or not or even "profitable" or not by any studio including Disney.

 

[erasure fan1]

But the take away is that no one, including the armchair box office accountants here, know what is deemed a "success" or not or even "profitable" or not by any studio including Disney.

That's because you have to define success. Muppets mayhem for instance. You could say it was successful because it was very well liked by the people who watched, and also the critics. Hell it spawned a #1 album. So it was successful for the limited audience it had.

But realistically it was a failure. It didn't gain an audience, it never made it in to the water cooler zone. It's really not that hard to tell what's driving conversations. And that's a big part of being successful in my opinion. Does the majority care, that's the big question. But you are correct, there's no real way to nail down profitability on a D+ (or any streaming service) only show/movie. That's too hush hush so they don't tip their hand from a residual standpoint.

 

[DKampy]

, it never made it in to the water cooler zone.

I don’t think there will ever be a water cooler show again… there is just too much content competition…Sure people can talk about popular shows like Fallout or The Boys or whatever… but I don’t think any show has reached Water Cooler status since Game of Thorns… something the whole world is watching… Not even House of the Dragon has reached that level

 

[bwr827]

I don’t think there will ever be a water cooler show again… there is just too much content competition…Sure people can talk about popular shows like Fallout or The Boys or whatever… but I don’t think any show has reached Water Cooler status since Game of Thorns… something the whole world is watching… Not even House of the Dragon has reached that level

Tiger King achieved watercooler status, but it did have the benefit of the pandemic shutting people in.

If the right show, and the right global virus, come along… cue a new level of Disney conspiracy.

 

[DKampy]

Tiger King achieved watercooler status, but it did have the benefit of the pandemic shutting people in.

Tiger King was also just before studios were all in on streaming…I stand by my statement… I don’t think we will have a water cooler show on the level of a Game of Thorns or Seinfeld ever again…, perhaps water cooler moments… As I would argue…. Mandalorian was a popular show but not to that level as a series overall… but the baby Yoda moment was