Zika Impact

[21stamps]

Thank you for clarifying. Yes Orlando is generally in the same boat as other southern cities - I'm not sure but I think that CDC response teams are being put in place/prepared. When I say implications about locally-transmitted cases, it is b/c any new case of local transmission really is like saying, 'we've got a 2319!' and rapid response teams (RRTs) will descend on the area, and secondly that the population within the vicinity has to be aware/ on alert.

I'm annoyed by the media coverage already; the lack of specificity is a problem. Miami is not Orlando is not all of the state of Florida.

And it's not even "Miami". It is one teeny tiny place in Miami. I'm willing to bet that the majority of Americans have never even heard of Wynwood, or have any plans to visit there.
It's a small community. It isn't Miami Beach.

 

[thomas998]

Wow. Your rebuttal was much harder to understand due to your inability to convey your thoughts concisely and coherently. My statement speaks for itself. Anything Zika related is still extremely rare and no confirmed cases in the Orlando. Do what you will.

My rebuttal as you call it was in part an attempt to show you just how confusing your statement was. If your statement speaks for itself, then it must be mute because as I pointed out it is far from clear what you were trying to say. So let me put it in simple terms, you are comparing apple to oranges. Pregnant women driving has nothing to do with unborn fetuses.

 

[thomas998]

Right. Someone with Zika could travel to Antarctica. Doesn't mean you'll get it unless you sleep with the person on your trip to Antarctica.

You don't have to sleep with them... Just have to be bitten by a mosquito has was infected by the person that had it. That's the biggest problem with how Florida is reporting on this. In official releases on they throw out the very low number of cases that they believe to be contracted locally... Yet the CDC said 336 people in Florida have the virus. The threat to someone without the disease isn't only from the locals that have contracted it in Florida, those other 336 people that have the disease are like little walking talking petri dishes of virus just waiting to serve up a meal to a mosquito that can then pass the virus along.

 

[21stamps]

You don't have to sleep with them... Just have to be bitten by a mosquito has was infected by the person that had it. That's the biggest problem with how Florida is reporting on this. In official releases on they throw out the very low number of cases that they believe to be contracted locally... Yet the CDC said 336 people in Florida have the virus. The threat to someone without the disease isn't only from the locals that have contracted it in Florida, those other 336 people that have the disease are like little walking talking petri dishes of virus just waiting to serve up a meal to a mosquito that can then pass the virus along.

As has been stated by several people repeatedly- there has not been any reports of anyone contracting Zika from a mosquito anywhere besides Wynwood, a small are in Miami.

My rebuttal as you call it was in part an attempt to show you just how confusing your statement was. If your statement speaks for itself, then it must be mute because as I pointed out it is far from clear what you were trying to say. So let me put it in simple terms, you are comparing apple to oranges. Pregnant women driving has nothing to do with unborn fetuses.

I think he was talking from a risk/odds standpoint. Also, not every pregnant woman who contracts Zika will pass it to her fetus.

These are the facts we know. Anything else beyond that is speculation, and what some people are doing is bordering on hysteria.

 

[thomas998]

As has been stated by several people repeatedly- there has not been any reports of anyone contracting Zika from a mosquito anywhere besides Wynwood, a small are in Miami.

I think he was talking from a risk/odds standpoint. Also, not every pregnant woman who contracts Zika will pass it to her fetus.

These are the facts we know. Anything else beyond that is speculation, and what some people are doing is bordering on hysteria.

If you want to speculate on how good things may actually be, Brazil hasn't seen the flood of babies born with small heads that they should have seen given the zika virus in that country. It appears now that the cluster of small heads was in a particular state in the north of Brazil but that other areas with similar infection rates aren't seeing that same number of birth defects. So now there is speculation that there is another factor involved beyond just zika that leads to the birth defects.

So speculation can go both ways. You can look at the rainbows and unicorn version or the falling into a bottomless pit version. We each have our preferences. I prefer to err on the side of caution.

 

[21stamps]

If you want to speculate on how good things may actually be, Brazil hasn't seen the flood of babies born with small heads that they should have seen given the zika virus in that country. It appears now that the cluster of small heads was in a particular state in the north of Brazil but that other areas with similar infection rates aren't seeing that same number of birth defects. So now there is speculation that there is another factor involved beyond just zika that leads to the birth defects.

So speculation can go both ways. You can look at the rainbows and unicorn version or the falling into a bottomless pit version. We each have our preferences. I prefer to err on the side of caution.

Or... You can just choose the middle,sensible ground. Which is- be aware and take precautions.

Not everything has to be viewed as one extreme or the other

 

[Chef Mickey]

My rebuttal as you call it was in part an attempt to show you just how confusing your statement was. If your statement speaks for itself, then it must be mute because as I pointed out it is far from clear what you were trying to say. So let me put it in simple terms, you are comparing apple to oranges. Pregnant women driving has nothing to do with unborn fetuses.

The word you're looking for is "moot" not mute, lol.

And it's not apples and oranges when I'm referring to the likelihood of an event. The point was, the likelihood of contracting Zika from a mosquito at Disney World is most likely much lower than driving your car. If you don't understand that, I'm at a loss and no longer care.

 

[SorcererMC]

With all the South American tour groups that go through Orlando I am 100% sure someone with Zika has been in Orlando probably many maybe 100's. The thing is they just didn't know they had it.

It is a fair assumption that an individual from a South American tour group has come to Orlando with the Zika virus. Focusing on Brazil b/c that is the main LAC tour group with available statistics. 2/3 of all Brazilian visitors in the US go to FL, varying from ~100,000-160,000 monthly arrivals for 2015. Top 3 months are Jan, July, and Dec. So the question is, how many of those Brazilians were infectious? The best answer is 'probably not many' b/c the Zika outbreak in Brazil was centered in the northeastern state of Pernambuco, which is a populous, poor state. I'm just guessing - most of the Brazilian visitors to the US probably come from the southern coastal major cities with higher per capita incomes like Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo.

My understanding (which may or may not be correct) re: mosquito transmission - so long as the virus was not still in their bloodstream, the individual wouldn't pose a threat. After a mosquito bite, there is an incubation period of 3-12 days and then ~7 days of the virus in the bloodstream (viremia). So that is the infection transmission window where a mosquito (here in the US) could bite them and transmit the disease. Once an individual has recovered from Zika virus, they have developed antibodies and are immune.

The other issue is detection and diagnostics - testing during an infection for virus vs testing for antibodies which is more inconclusive. Rapid diagnostic tests for Zika are under development.

 

[King Capybara 77]

The word you're looking for is "moot" not mute, lol.

And it's not apples and oranges when I'm referring to the likelihood of an event. The point was, the likelihood of contracting Zika from a mosquito at Disney World is most likely much lower than driving your car. If you don't understand that, I'm at a loss and no longer care.

So you are more likely to catch Zika if you are driving an Orange car in Walt Disney world than being bitten by a "Misquote" ??

 

[thomas998]

The word you're looking for is "moot" not mute, lol.

And it's not apples and oranges when I'm referring to the likelihood of an event. The point was, the likelihood of contracting Zika from a mosquito at Disney World is most likely much lower than driving your car. If you don't understand that, I'm at a loss and no longer care.

No the word I choose was very specific. Did you not read what was written? "if your statement speaks for itself, then it must be mute" I know the difference between mute and moot, the word selection was intended it apparently went over your head.

 

[SorcererMC]

Knowing what might happen in the next 6-12 months re: Zika depends a whole lot on measures taken now, eg mosquito control to prevent mosquitoes from breeding - emptying out standing water in the smallest of containers. CDC said on #ZikaChat yesterday that the eggs can survive 8 months and when they become wet that they can hatch. (And spread disease if/when they bite an infectious individual). I mostly agree with the CDC assessment that outbreaks will be limited clusters (which is based on what is known about the spread of other tropical diseases like dengue and chikungunya).

 

[SorcererMC]

So you are more likely to catch Zika if you are driving an Orange car in Walt Disney world than being bitten by a "Misquote" ??

I like this b/c it's funny yet unsubstantiated rumors about Zika bother me

 

[mf1972]

BUT that person could then get infected by The Thing!

send in Kurt Russell. problem solved.

 

[Chef Mickey]

No the word I choose was very specific. Did you not read what was written? "if your statement speaks for itself, then it must be mute" I know the difference between mute and moot, the word selection was intended it apparently went over your head.

Regardless of the grammar misinterpretation, my point remains...

 

[thomas998]

Regardless of the grammar misinterpretation, my point remains...

Yes... Your point was:

The point was, the likelihood of contracting Zika from a mosquito at Disney World is most likely much lower than driving your car. If you don't understand that, I'm at a loss and no longer care.

And I'm sorry that when you drive your car it is filled with mosquitoes. I normally keep my windows rolled up and don't have a mosquito problem inside my car so for me the odds of being bitten by a mosquito with or without zika in my car is a lot lower than being bitten by a zika infected mosquito at WDW... but hey if you drive around with your windows down in swamps or drive around with a car full of mosquitos that's your business.... I do agree with one thing you said.... I'm at a loss and no longer care.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Yes... Your point was:



And I'm sorry that when you drive your car it is filled with mosquitoes. I normally keep my windows rolled up and don't have a mosquito problem inside my car so for me the odds of being bitten by a mosquito with or without zika in my car is a lot lower than being bitten by a zika infected mosquito at WDW... but hey if you drive around with your windows down in swamps or drive around with a car full of mosquitos that's your business.... I do agree with one thing you said.... I'm at a loss and no longer care.

It's risk factor, not circumstances.

Driving car = risk for accident and death
Going to Orlando = risk of catching Zika from mosquito

Driving car risk of accident > Catching Zika in Orlando risk

 

[danyoung56]

The word you're looking for is "moot" not mute, lol.

Isn't this the 2nd time in as many days that this has come up?

 

[danyoung56]

No the word I choose was very specific. Did you not read what was written? "if your statement speaks for itself, then it must be mute" I know the difference between mute and moot, the word selection was intended it apparently went over your head.

My apologies.

 

[Chef Mickey]

My apologies.

Yeah, he didn't misuse. I read it on my phone and so many people don't know the difference, I just assumed. Still kind of odd, particularly since I felt like my original statement did speak for itself, yet I had to explain.

 

[21stamps]

Yes... Your point was:



And I'm sorry that when you drive your car it is filled with mosquitoes. I normally keep my windows rolled up and don't have a mosquito problem inside my car so for me the odds of being bitten by a mosquito with or without zika in my car is a lot lower than being bitten by a zika infected mosquito at WDW... but hey if you drive around with your windows down in swamps or drive around with a car full of mosquitos that's your business.... I do agree with one thing you said.... I'm at a loss and no longer care.

I'm wondering if people know what a "swamp" is at this point...

Still confused on the car/mosquito thing though, a comparison of numerical odds is not the same thing as the direction you are going.

Btw, no one in Florida has a convertible, so most people must be like you and always drive with their windows up