Zika Impact

[SorcererMC]

So your telling me a virus that can cause sever birth defect and death of a fetus is not a serious enough threat to rank up there with malaria? True Zika might not be of much consequence to a healthy adult but I kind of think babies deserve a bit of consideration as well.

I have said no such thing about the Zika virus not being a considered a 'serious' threat. Quite the opposite; if you read my posts, which are many in this thread. I do not think that this discussion should be a polarized debate of 'Zika is or is not a concern'.

To clarify further, I see 'concern' as a rational response to a perceived threat (and distinct from the emotional response of fear or worry). Regardless of whether it may affect you personally - concern can be expressed for one's self as well as others. My rationale for posting so much in this thread is to create better public awareness about the Zika virus itself, why it is considered a threat, and to advocate for precautions such as the use of bug spray, not only on the part of pregnant women, but literally everyone in the mosquito vector area, so as to prevent transmission. This is key.

 

[21stamps]

I have said no such thing about the Zika virus not being a considered a 'serious' threat. Quite the opposite; if you read my posts, which are many in this thread. I do not think that this discussion should be a polarized debate of 'Zika is or is not a concern'.

To clarify further, I see 'concern' as a rational response to a perceived threat (and distinct from the emotional response of fear or worry). Regardless of whether it may affect you personally - concern can be expressed for one's self as well as others. My rationale for posting so much in this thread is to create better public awareness about the Zika virus itself, why it is considered a threat, and to advocate for precautions such as the use of bug spray, not only on the part of pregnant women, but literally everyone in the mosquito vector area, so as to prevent transmission. This is key.

Yep, and if you are pregnant- (and what I will be doing for my son in the Caribbean)

Wear a rash guard when swimming or at the beach.
Constantly reapply bug spray.

That should help- if you are a personal mosquito repellent zone, and everyone does their part as far as standing water etc, the cases should be few and far between.

 

[SorcererMC]

Yep, and if you are pregnant- (and what I will be doing for my son in the Caribbean)

Wear a rash guard when swimming or at the beach.
Constantly reapply bug spray.

That should help- if you are a personal mosquito repellent zone, and everyone does their part as far as standing water etc, the cases should be few and far between.

'DEET should be Miami's new perfume' - mosquito geneticist Dr. Matthew DeGennaro

Re: standing water - yes, disrupting mosquito breeding grounds is also key as eggs can withstand dessication for several months.

 

[SorcererMC]

No. It isn't a joke. The reality is DDT has been much maligned in large part due to a book filled with junk science from the 1960's. DDT was never shown to be even fractionally as bad as it was painted to be by Rachel Carson. The truth is that many people did die from the DDT substitutes that flooded the market when DDT was banned. DDT was and is the safest and most effective method for mosquito control. It is only because too many environmental nut jobs have pretty much elevated Carson to near messiah level that people are not looking at what was behind her claims. And because of that millions of people die each year from things like malaria which would be much less of a problem if we simply started using DDT again.

Mosquitoes, including the known Zika virus vectors, become resistant to DDT. Its use to combat Zika virus transmission won't happen; those laws won't be overturned.

 

[thomas998]

Mosquitoes, including the known Zika virus vectors, become resistant to DDT. Its use to combat Zika virus transmission won't happen; those laws won't be overturned.

DDT didn't just help with mosquitoes because of its ability to kill mosquitoes, it was also effective because it served as a highly effective repellent and irritant to mosquitoes, neither of which were ever impacted by resistance that is seen in all insecticides in terms of lethality. In short you don't care if a mosquito carries zika, malaria or any other disease so long as it stay away from areas where you have sprayed.

 

[thomas998]

So are we completely ignoring the effects that DDT has on wildlife?


It is devastating sad to think of a baby being born with the issues that are being reported, but unfortunately we can't expose everyone and every animal to a highly destructive poison.

The point is DDT is not the insecticide equivalent of plutonium that we were led to believe by junk science in the 1960's. IF DDT was as horrible as we were led to believe it was then we would have zero wildlife in much of Africa and South America where DDT was used in much higher concentrations than in the US and for a very long time after the US banned it. If half the horrible things science has now claimed are going to kill us why isn't the human race instinct? Mostly it is because the dangers and risks of most things that make the cover of Time magazine are exaggerated to the nth degree to make headlines, not to truly convey the truth which is often much more mundane.

 

[thomas998]

I have said no such thing about the Zika virus not being a considered a 'serious' threat. Quite the opposite; if you read my posts, which are many in this thread. I do not think that this discussion should be a polarized debate of 'Zika is or is not a concern'.

To clarify further, I see 'concern' as a rational response to a perceived threat (and distinct from the emotional response of fear or worry). Regardless of whether it may affect you personally - concern can be expressed for one's self as well as others. My rationale for posting so much in this thread is to create better public awareness about the Zika virus itself, why it is considered a threat, and to advocate for precautions such as the use of bug spray, not only on the part of pregnant women, but literally everyone in the mosquito vector area, so as to prevent transmission. This is key.

The problem is simply trying to keep certain people out of the area of concern is that the virus is spread through sexual contact as well as by mosquitoes. So unless you want to mandate chastity belts for everyone that travels to those places for 6 months or until you can verify that they were not infected simply having pregnant women avoid areas wont work.

 

[21stamps]

The point is DDT is not the insecticide equivalent of plutonium that we were led to believe by junk science in the 1960's. IF DDT was as horrible as we were led to believe it was then we would have zero wildlife in much of Africa and South America where DDT was used in much higher concentrations than in the US and for a very long time after the US banned it. If half the horrible things science has now claimed are going to kill us why isn't the human race instinct? Mostly it is because the dangers and risks of most things that make the cover of Time magazine are exaggerated to the nth degree to make headlines, not to truly convey the truth which is often much more mundane.

There is documented cases of the negative impact on wildlife. I don't see how that would be fabricated.

The problem is simply trying to keep certain people out of the area of concern is that the virus is spread through sexual contact as well as by mosquitoes. So unless you want to mandate chastity belts for everyone that travels to those places for 6 months or until you can verify that they were not infected simply having pregnant women avoid areas wont work.

If you are a couple who is neither trying or not trying to get pregnant, then there are plenty of preventative measures to avoiding pregnancy available to everyone.
If you are trying to become pregnant, and you don't feel like long sleeves and repellent is enough- then you are your spouse should avoid areas with known outbreaks.

This is where the "over reacting" "fear inducing" part comes into play.. There is absolutely no reason why Zika should now cause us to bring back a harmful chemical with detrimental effects. We have repellent that we can apply to ourselves, and not harm any other humans or any species of wildlife with that application. We have other "sprays" that cities can use to keep us relatively safe. No, you shouldn't expect every other country to be as vigilant, so either take precautions for yourself or weigh your options/risk and make an informed decision about where you are going.

 

[thomas998]

There is documented cases of the negative impact on wildlife. I don't see how that would be fabricated.

If you are a couple who is neither trying or not trying to get pregnant, then there are plenty of preventative measures to avoiding pregnancy available to everyone.
If you are trying to become pregnant, and you don't feel like long sleeves and repellent is enough- then you are your spouse should avoid areas with known outbreaks.

This is where the "over reacting" "fear inducing" part comes into play.. There is absolutely no reason why Zika should now cause us to bring back a harmful chemical with detrimental effects. We have repellent that we can apply to ourselves, and not harm any other humans or any species of wildlife with that application. We have other "sprays" that cities can use to keep us relatively safe. No, you shouldn't expect every other country to be as vigilant, so either take precautions for yourself or weigh your options/risk and make an informed decision about where you are going.

In the 80's people thought anyone mentioning AIDS as a problem were overreacting because hey it only impacted gay men... Well as you saw with that disease, things change. Zika might not seem like that big of a deal unless you want to have a baby. But if you allow unfettered travel to places that have the disease you will spread it. Say Bill goes to Florida and doesn't plan on being a dad... Doesn't mean Bill can't catch the disease, doesn't mean he wont infect other partners when he returns from vacation nor does it mean that a non-infected mosquito in Bill's home town wont bite Bill and then spread the disease to Diane down the street that is pregnant. The reality is the more people are exposed to the virus whether they are trying to get pregnant or not the greater the probability that pregnant women will end up paying the price.

 

[SorcererMC]

DDT didn't just help with mosquitoes because of its ability to kill mosquitoes, it was also effective because it served as a highly effective repellent and irritant to mosquitoes, neither of which were ever impacted by resistance that is seen in all insecticides in terms of lethality. In short you don't care if a mosquito carries zika, malaria or any other disease so long as it stay away from areas where you have sprayed.

The right mosquito control must match the vector. Aedes aegypti is the main culprit with Zika, and Zika can also be carried by Aedes albopictus aka Asian Tiger mosquito.

Aedes aegypti mosquito is known to inhabit urban populated areas, and only travels within 150-400m. This means that effective mosquito control involves going house to house (or by building, or by restaurant) and spraying walls, and even interiors where screens may be ineffective. This also means that an owner's permission is required to spray or for an expert to canvas the area, checking for standing water or setting traps for mosquitoes. People live and work in these areas.

Edit: FYI pregnant women are ~2x as likely to get bit by a mosquito due to higher carbon dioxide emission and heat signature.

Perhaps you and I can agree that the only good mosquito is a dead one?

Edit 2: Semi-related - FL Dept of Health releases a weekly arbovirus (aka mosquito-borne) disease surveillance report which can be found at http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/mosquito-borne-diseases/surveillance.html

 

[SorcererMC]

In the 80's people thought anyone mentioning AIDS as a problem were overreacting because hey it only impacted gay men... Well as you saw with that disease, things change. Zika might not seem like that big of a deal unless you want to have a baby. But if you allow unfettered travel to places that have the disease you will spread it. Say Bill goes to Florida and doesn't plan on being a dad... Doesn't mean Bill can't catch the disease, doesn't mean he wont infect other partners when he returns from vacation nor does it mean that a non-infected mosquito in Bill's home town wont bite Bill and then spread the disease to Diane down the street that is pregnant. The reality is the more people are exposed to the virus whether they are trying to get pregnant or not the greater the probability that pregnant women will end up paying the price.

This is a fairly short thread, and I think that if you go back a few/several pages, or re-read it, you will find that many of these issues have been brought-up and covered (by myself and others). It sounds like you would like more aggressive measures to be taken regarding official travel warnings and other lifestyle habits - but I think that there are still many unknowns, that research is ongoing, and there is caution about reaching conclusions that may prove to be inaccurate. Public health officials cannot issue travel alerts or other warnings according to hypothetical scenarios or prognosticate the future; they must deal with the evidence as it is presented. Indeed, advice may be subject to change as it is still a developing situation....that is 'the nature of the beast' so to speak.

ETA: The continental US is not likely to see epidemics like Brazil and Puerto Rico b/c of the benefit of hindsight and awareness. TX health officials have put the state on 'high-alert', so that people will take precautions. The risk of Zika virus can be managed, so long as people are aware of the risks.

 

[Chef Mickey]

So are you saying that pregnant women and those of child-bearing age should take a risk of being infected with Zika, however minimal, just for the sake of a vacation?

As a pregnant woman or child bearing age woman, you run a much greater risk driving your car or allowing your child to ride with you.

Just sayin'.

 

[Chef Mickey]

For all you people worried...

Saying you should cancel a trip to WDW because you are pregnant/trying to become pregnant and are worried about Zika is pretty much saying every woman who is pregnant/trying to become pregnant and lives in the Orlando areas needs to move.

1) There are 0 confirmed cases in Orlando
2) WDW is probably safer than your standard Orlando neighborhood due to pest control measures.
3) Tens of thousands of woman in the Orlando area are pregnant/trying to become pregnant and it has nothing to do with Disney.
4) We aren't talking about some random island in the Caribbean. Orlando is a large city with people LIVING there today.
5) Miami is WAY closer to the action and you can re-read my 3rd statement.
6) Other southern states are just as likely as Orlando to have a new confirmed case.

 

[21stamps]

For all you people worried...

Saying you should cancel a trip to WDW because you are pregnant/trying to become pregnant and are worried about Zika is pretty much saying every woman who is pregnant/trying to become pregnant and lives in the Orlando areas needs to move.

1) There are 0 confirmed cases in Orlando
2) WDW is probably safer than your standard Orlando neighborhood due to pest control measures.
3) Tens of thousands of woman in the Orlando area are pregnant/trying to become pregnant and it has nothing to do with Disney.
4) We aren't talking about some random island in the Caribbean. Orlando is a large city with people LIVING there today.
5) Miami is WAY closer to the action and you can re-read my 3rd statement.
6) Other southern states are just as likely as Orlando to have a new confirmed case.

I wish this could go on Page 1. As the 1st post people read after the title.

 

[SorcererMC]

For all you people worried...

Saying you should cancel a trip to WDW because you are pregnant/trying to become pregnant and are worried about Zika is pretty much saying every woman who is pregnant/trying to become pregnant and lives in the Orlando areas needs to move.

1) There are 0 confirmed cases in Orlando
2) WDW is probably safer than your standard Orlando neighborhood due to pest control measures.
3) Tens of thousands of woman in the Orlando area are pregnant/trying to become pregnant and it has nothing to do with Disney.
4) We aren't talking about some random island in the Caribbean. Orlando is a large city with people LIVING there today.
5) Miami is WAY closer to the action and you can re-read my 3rd statement.
6) Other southern states are just as likely as Orlando to have a new confirmed case.

There is an anecdote in this thread that a pregnant woman was advised by her ob-gyn to cancel her WDW trip scheduled for December. I consider this sound medical advice, while not knowing the specifics, as it is consistent with CDC guidelines. Perhaps the patient lives in a low-risk area, and as far as her doctor is concerned, she may easily maintain her low risk by not traveling to areas such as Orlando or WDW or Florida, where the virus might be in circulation? (Orange Co has not given any reports of evidence that Zika virus is being found in Orlando mosquitoes.)

Other southern states are not 'just as likely to have a new confirmed case' due to the fact that Orlando airport and Miami airport have a large population of inbound international travelers from LAC countries. That is why they have the largest red dots on the April NASA map posted earlier in the thread (p 2 or 3 maybe), (as well as the FL mosquito season, and distribution of mosquito vectors; those 3 factors were used to make that risk map.).

Given my above statements, I am not in any way saying that tourists who are not in the at-risk population should not go to WDW/Orlando.

I agree with you that couples living in Orlando who may be pregnant or trying to become pregnant has nothing to do with WDW. I would encourage them to take appropriate precautionary measures as the CDC and FL Dept of Health suggest.

 

[21stamps]

There is an anecdote in this thread that a pregnant woman was advised by her ob-gyn to cancel her WDW trip scheduled for December. I consider this sound medical advice, while not knowing the specifics, as it is consistent with CDC guidelines. Perhaps the patient lives in a low-risk area, and as far as her doctor is concerned, she may easily maintain her low risk by not traveling to areas such as Orlando or WDW or Florida, where the virus might be in circulation? (Orange Co has not given any reports of evidence that Zika virus is being found in Orlando mosquitoes.)

Other southern states are not 'just as likely to have a new confirmed case' due to the fact that Orlando airport and Miami airport have a large population of inbound international travelers from LAC countries. That is why they have the largest red dots on the April NASA map posted earlier in the thread (p 2 or 3 maybe), (as well as the FL mosquito season, and distribution of mosquito vectors; those 3 factors were used to make that risk map.).

Given my above statements, I am not in any way saying that tourists who are not in the at-risk population should not go to WDW/Orlando.

I agree with you that couples living in Orlando who may be pregnant or trying to become pregnant has nothing to do with WDW. I would encourage them to take appropriate precautionary measures as the CDC and FL Dept of Health suggest.

...and for almost a day I was in total agreement with your posts.

The thing is, realistically, every major airport in the country has people returning from "infected" places. Since last winter how many people do you think have visited the Caribbean? I have no clue of the actual numbers, but I'm sure it has to be huge.

 

[SorcererMC]

...and for almost a day I was in total agreement with your posts.

The thing is, realistically, every major airport in the country has people returning from "infected" places. Since last winter how many people do you think have visited the Caribbean? I have no clue of the actual numbers, but I'm sure it has to be huge.

Allow me to elaborate on the April NASA risk map which is for July. I generally trust that NASA scientists know what they are doing and I think it's a useful tool. If you look at the key, the size of the dots indicates the number of inbound intl arrivals, w/ the largest circle being 500,000-1 mln. The smallest circles are <10,000. It may be hard to read.

And yes, it is why 'every major airport' like NYC, Houston, and Atlanta have the larger orange dots. The reason that FL, the Gulf States, and the coastal southern US are red is because of the distribution of vector mosquitoes and the climate suitable to 'mosquito season'. While FL officials believe that there is no active transmission anywhere else in FL besides Wynwood, Miami, it does not mean that there is no risk whatsoever in other areas (ie the red dots) b/c Zika virus can be transmitted silently'.

 

[21stamps]

Allow me to elaborate on the April NASA risk map which is for July. I generally trust that NASA scientists know what they are doing and I think it's a useful tool. If you look at the key, the size of the dots indicates the number of inbound intl arrivals, w/ the largest circle being 500,000-1 mln. The smallest circles are <10,000. It may be hard to read.

And yes, it is why 'every major airport' like NYC, Houston, and Atlanta have the larger orange dots. The reason that FL, the Gulf States, and the coastal southern US are red is because of the distribution of vector mosquitoes and the climate suitable to 'mosquito season'. While FL officials believe that there is no active transmission anywhere else in FL besides Wynwood, Miami, it does not mean that there is no risk whatsoever in other areas (ie the red dots) b/c Zika virus can be transmitted silently'. View attachment 154479

That map makes it look super scary, and isn't doing Florida any favors. I'm definitely glad that you stated what the dots meant.

 

[SorcererMC]

I should reiterate that the peak season of Zika virus infection is in July with cases tapering throughout Aug-Sept and very low for Oct-Dec. I do not have a graph. So, if there are 15 cases now, that might uptick due to detection, but then it should decline. This means that even somewhere like Miami should be safe as winter comes (for any snow birds that might be reading). Clusters of Zika virus like we're seeing in Miami are manageable I think and will be contained. Every where in Miami is basically fine now except for that 1-square-mile!

 

[SorcererMC]

That map makes it look super scary, and isn't doing Florida any favors. I'm definitely glad that you stated what the dots meant.

ok. I really am not trying to incite fear at all, that is not my intent. I'm trying to keep my tone as 'informative' while using a 'risk-based approach', b/c it is up to the individual. I'm just saying 'be aware', manage your risk, and do your part. If 'we' haven't learned anything about WDW in the last 6 weeks or so, it's that it does not exist in a bubble. I see no reason why anyone (who doesn't have to follow doctors' orders) shouldn't keep planning and enjoy their WDW vacation in the foreseeable future.