Zika Impact

[21stamps]

I should reiterate that the peak season of Zika virus infection is in July with cases tapering throughout Aug-Sept and very low for Oct-Dec. I do not have a graph. So, if there are 15 cases now, that might uptick due to detection, but then it should decline. This means that even somewhere like Miami should be safe as winter comes (for any snow birds that might be reading). Clusters of Zika virus like we're seeing in Miami are manageable I think and will be contained. Every where in Miami is basically fine now except for that 1-square-mile!

This (summer) is South Florida's slow season. What I don't understand is that it's also south Florida residents high travel time for the Caribbean. Our weather is rainy, humid, and insanely hot during the summer.. Night time temps being the biggest difference between SoFla and the areas north (i.e. Orlando). Because of that people choose to visit the Caribbean -which is the same exact weather as SoFla, but you get crazy cheap flights/resort deals that time of year to the eastern or western Caribbean and even Central America.
So between the international tourists, and the locals returning from trips.. It would seem that if this was as huge of an issue as we are being lead to believe, that they would put an alert on everyone in that region to stop their travel plans. That hasn't happened though.

 

[SorcererMC]

This (summer) is South Florida's slow season. What I don't understand is that it's also south Florida residents high travel time for the Caribbean. Our weather is rainy, humid, and insanely hot during the summer.. Night time temps being the biggest difference between SoFla and the areas north. Because of that people choose to visit the Caribbean which is the same exact weather as SoFla, but you get crazy cheap flights/resort deals that time of year to the eastern or western Caribbean and even Central America.
So between the international tourists, and the locals returning from trips.. It would seem that if this was as huge of an issue as we are being lead to believe, that they would put an alert on everyone in that region to stop their travel plans. That hasn't happened though.

Right. And I don't quite think that it should happen, b/c how easy is it to put on bug spray? It's about being vigilant and making that adjustment. Obviously, some people will have to adjust more than others, according to their own circumstance re: sexual transmission.

 

[Aqueeta]

As a pregnant woman or child bearing age woman, you run a much greater risk driving your car or allowing your child to ride with you. Just sayin'.

Well, I am sure an OB or two have told their patients, "one you can control and the other you can't".

 

[Aqueeta]

For all you people worried...

Saying you should cancel a trip to WDW because you are pregnant/trying to become pregnant and are worried about Zika is pretty much saying every woman who is pregnant/trying to become pregnant and lives in the Orlando areas needs to move.
.

No, they don't need to move, they need to stay indoors out of harms way. Kind of hard to do when you are at WDW.

 

[thomas998]

As a pregnant woman or child bearing age woman, you run a much greater risk driving your car or allowing your child to ride with you.

Just sayin'.

Not really sure what you are saying. Are you saying the woman is at greater risk driving a car than getting Zika? Well considering that the woman is highly unlikely to die even if she gets Zika, then I believe that... But I think the concern when talking about Zika applies more to the unborn baby than to the expectant mother. And where does the child riding in a car fit in? Sorry but your just saying something that doesn't really make much sense. Or are you trying to say the risk of ANY bad thing happening is greater from being in a car than from a pregnant or child bearing age woman traveling to a zika infect hot spot... Because then I would like to see the numbers that back up that claim. You might have them if you go with only the 20 current cases in Miami... But those 20 current cases will only go higher and at some point the numbers associated with risk would flip and driving a car would be much safer, the only unknown is when will that flip happen. It might not happen until after someone takes their vacation to Florida, but it might happen before they even land at the airport.

Just sayin'

 

[Disney4family]

I always wonder about statistics and reports on anything. I remember when one of the latest health scares came out - maybe 8 years ago - bird flu? So many kids in school got it (my entire pd3 class was wiped out) - but nothing was reported. I asked my doctor about it. He told me that the government told them to not report anything unless the person was admitted to a hospital. If they weren't that sick, it "never happened."

 

[SorcererMC]

hose yourself down with Deet.

That hardly seems advisable. Perhaps one would read the application instructions?

Keep in mind that Aedes aegypti prefers urban populated areas over swamps/woodlands. Here is a map of the likely population distribution for Aedes aegypti (the primary vector for Zika virus), according to environmental factors of climate, rainfall, humidity, etc. It may be hard to tell but there is some variation in the Gulf states between the red and orange areas. While aedes aegypti has a larger habitat range than this map shows (refer to NASA map above), this map helps indicate the variation within that range. This is to say that the risk to individuals within the range of aedes aegypti varies (perhaps considerably). According to this map, aedes aegypti in SC is much lower than LA, TX, GA, and FL.

 

[SorcererMC]

I always wonder about statistics and reports on anything. I remember when one of the latest health scares came out - maybe 8 years ago - bird flu? So many kids in school got it (my entire pd3 class was wiped out) - but nothing was reported. I asked my doctor about it. He told me that the government told them to not report anything unless the person was admitted to a hospital. If they weren't that sick, it "never happened."

That may have been the '2009 H1N1' flu strain, that emerged and was more virulent than other H1N1 strains within the prior 40 years. The flu vaccine is changed each year, and contains Influenza A (H1N1), A (H3N2), and one or two influenza B viruses. My understanding re: surveillance and reporting for flu is that it is done by epidemiologists on a weekly basis. Reporting hospitalizations helps as a criterion for determining virulence. It is only after a flu season ends that the effectiveness of the vaccine against the circulating strain can be determined, and this is usually reported each year in the news.

Re: Zika, there is at least one tropical medicine expert who has been outspoken in the media that the CDC warnings should focus more on the role of the general populace as potential carriers/ transmitters. I don't think the current warnings are understated? but I do think that the general population should be more aware, not just pregnant women and their partners.

Edit: FWIW, NIH is trying to develop a Zika vaccine and is starting a clinical trial.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Not really sure what you are saying. Are you saying the woman is at greater risk driving a car than getting Zika? Well considering that the woman is highly unlikely to die even if she gets Zika, then I believe that... But I think the concern when talking about Zika applies more to the unborn baby than to the expectant mother. And where does the child riding in a car fit in? Sorry but your just saying something that doesn't really make much sense. Or are you trying to say the risk of ANY bad thing happening is greater from being in a car than from a pregnant or child bearing age woman traveling to a zika infect hot spot... Because then I would like to see the numbers that back up that claim. You might have them if you go with only the 20 current cases in Miami... But those 20 current cases will only go higher and at some point the numbers associated with risk would flip and driving a car would be much safer, the only unknown is when will that flip happen. It might not happen until after someone takes their vacation to Florida, but it might happen before they even land at the airport.

Just sayin'

Wow. Your rebuttal was much harder to understand due to your inability to convey your thoughts concisely and coherently. My statement speaks for itself. Anything Zika related is still extremely rare and no confirmed cases in the Orlando. Do what you will.

 

[SorcererMC]

1) There are 0 confirmed cases in Orlando

no confirmed cases in the Orlando.

It is false to say there are no Zika virus cases in Orlando.
As of July 27, Orange Co has 40 travel-related cases and 0 confirmed cases of local transmission.

Please distinguish between cases of local transmission and travel-related cases, as nearly all US states have travel-related cases. I'm sort of nit-picking b/c the implications of travel-related cases vs. locally-transmitted cases are quite different, in that people in areas of local-transmission ie Wynwood, Miami should be on their guard and take appropriate measures. Orlando is at moderate to high risk of local transmission occurring during the mosquito season, roughly until September. (If you want to get really nerdy about it like me, there's a good public access medical journal article from March 2016 here http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/...edes-aegypti-in-the-contiguous-united-states/ ). I consider it a good sign that there are no confirmed cases of local transmission in Orlando yet, seems promising regarding outbreaks being limited.

Most people know that Miami is not Orlando - and there are maps in this thread a couple of pages back that clearly show the difference (thanks @21stamps).

 

[Chef Mickey]

It is false to say there are no Zika virus cases in Orlando.
As of July 27, Orange Co has 40 travel-related cases and 0 confirmed cases of local transmission..

Right. Someone with Zika could travel to Antarctica. Doesn't mean you'll get it unless you sleep with the person on your trip to Antarctica.

 

[Matt_Black]

Right. Someone with Zika could travel to Antarctica. Doesn't mean you'll get it unless you sleep with the person on your trip to Antarctica.

BUT that person could then get infected by The Thing!

 

[Aqueeta]

Anything Zika related is still extremely rare and no confirmed cases in the Orlando. Do what you will.

Have you forgotten that the typical vacationer has to start planning a WDW trip 6 to 12 months in advance? The fact that there are no confirmed Zika cases in Orlando is a moot point because who knows what it will be like in 6 to 12 months. I really feel for those who are of child-bearing age and trying to start or complete their families.

 

[Matt_Black]

Have you forgotten that the typical vacationer has to start planning a WDW trip 6 to 12 months in advance? The fact that there are no confirmed Zika cases in Orlando is a moot point because who knows what it will be like in 6 to 12 months. I really feel for those who are of child-bearing age and trying to start or complete their families.

Wear long sleeve shirts and pants, use mosquito repellent. You don't need 6-12 months for that.

 

[SorcererMC]

if you go with only the 20 current cases in Miami... But those 20 current cases

Did I miss something? I believe the current Miami case count of local transmission stands at 15 but haven't seen today's FL Dept Health update. There is a press briefing in Miami at 3:30 today.

 

[SorcererMC]

Right. Someone with Zika could travel to Antarctica. Doesn't mean you'll get it unless you sleep with the person on your trip to Antarctica.

#sarcasm?

Edit: Are you implying that the threat to Orlando is akin to the threat to Antarctica (where there are no mosquitoes)?

 

[Chef Mickey]

#sarcasm?

Edit: Are you implying that the threat to Orlando is akin to the threat to Antarctica (where there are no mosquitoes)?

My point is, there are 0 documented cases of Zika from a bite in Orlando. Women living in Orlando could have jobs that are primarily outdoors, or even if not, still probably spend some hours outdoors. If they are not at WDW, the pest control measures are probably even more relaxed.

Either way, Orlando is not a suburb outside Miami and since Orlando has 0 reported cases, it is just like pretty much every southern city. Dallas, Houston, and New Orleans are in the same boat. Potential candidates for Zika.

Let's just say the media scare tactics are working.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Have you forgotten that the typical vacationer has to start planning a WDW trip 6 to 12 months in advance? The fact that there are no confirmed Zika cases in Orlando is a moot point because who knows what it will be like in 6 to 12 months. I really feel for those who are of child-bearing age and trying to start or complete their families.

Again, Orlando isn't the ONLY city with potential for Zika. If Orlando has 0 reported cases from bites today, they are just like any southern city that has a ton of mosquitoes. WDW is just a subset of Orlando and the south in general. There is nothing more dangerous about visiting WDW than any other city and spending time outside.

A vacation to WDW is NO different than anyone working, playing, or being outside in Orlando or in any other southern city, vacation or not. Wear your mosquito repellent and live your life. Ebola freaked everyone out too.

Also, mosquitoes are only a real issue in probably 4-5 months out of the year.

 

[21stamps]

Have you forgotten that the typical vacationer has to start planning a WDW trip 6 to 12 months in advance? The fact that there are no confirmed Zika cases in Orlando is a moot point because who knows what it will be like in 6 to 12 months. I really feel for those who are of child-bearing age and trying to start or complete their families.

We don't know what any place in the world will be like in 6-12 months.

Your case is "Zika carrying mosquitos MAY be in Orlando in 6-12 months."
Anything MAY happen anywhere or to anyone in 6-12 months. So that's a bit of a complete over reaction thought process.

 

[SorcererMC]

My point is, there are 0 documented cases of Zika from a bite in Orlando. Women living in Orlando could have jobs that are primarily outdoors, or even if not, still probably spend some hours outdoors. If they are not at WDW, the pest control measures are probably even more relaxed.

Either way, Orlando is not a suburb outside Miami and since Orlando has 0 reported cases, it is just like pretty much every southern city. Dallas, Houston, and New Orleans are in the same boat. Potential candidates for Zika.

Let's just say the media scare tactics are working.

Thank you for clarifying. Yes Orlando is generally in the same boat as other southern cities - I'm not sure but I think that CDC response teams are being put in place/prepared. When I say implications about locally-transmitted cases, it is b/c any new case of local transmission really is like saying, 'we've got a 2319!' and rapid response teams (RRTs) will descend on the area, and secondly that the population within the vicinity has to be aware/ on alert.

I'm annoyed by the media coverage already; the lack of specificity is a problem. Miami is not Orlando is not all of the state of Florida.