Zika Impact

[21stamps]

It is a fair assumption that an individual from a South American tour group has come to Orlando with the Zika virus. Focusing on Brazil b/c that is the main LAC tour group with available statistics. 2/3 of all Brazilian visitors in the US go to FL, varying from ~100,000-160,000 monthly arrivals for 2015. Top 3 months are Jan, July, and Dec. So the question is, how many of those Brazilians were infectious? The best answer is 'probably not many' b/c the Zika outbreak in Brazil was centered in the northeastern state of Pernambuco, which is a populous, poor state. I'm just guessing - most of the Brazilian visitors to the US probably come from the southern coastal major cities with higher per capita incomes like Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo.

My understanding (which may or may not be correct) re: mosquito transmission - so long as the virus was not still in their bloodstream, the individual wouldn't pose a threat. After a mosquito bite, there is an incubation period of 3-12 days and then ~7 days of the virus in the bloodstream (viremia). So that is the infection transmission window where a mosquito (here in the US) could bite them and transmit the disease. Once an individual has recovered from Zika virus, they have developed antibodies and are immune.

The other issue is detection and diagnostics - testing during an infection for virus vs testing for antibodies which is more inconclusive. Rapid diagnostic tests for Zika are under development.

I just keep looking at this from a general travel perspective. I think the numbers are something like over 2 million Americans per year sail to the Caribbean. Now add in the amount of people who do all inclusives, rent houses, go to a hotel, visit family, etc in the Caribbean, Central, and South America. That would have to almost double the over 2 million number if not more.

And with all of that we have only had 1 small area with an actual local mosquito passing the virus.

 

[thomas998]

It's risk factor, not circumstances.

Driving car = risk for accident and death
Going to Orlando = risk of catching Zika from mosquito

Driving car risk of accident > Catching Zika in Orlando risk

Still apples to oranges comparison. Most people with cars have to drive or they wouldn't have bought the car in the first place, no one has to go to WDW for vacation so your comparison is between a luxury and a necessity. I could also say the risk of dying from any disease if far greater for people that were born alive than it is of anyone catching Zika anywhere in the world from a mosquito... So what?

But hey, let's ignore the apples to oranges since you refuse too anyway... Risk for accident and death driving a car is 0.001 based on number of fatalities in the US vs the total population, not even trying to throw out pedestrians killed by cars, because bothering to do so would make a change in probability so small it wouldn't matter. Now, is the risk of catching Zika less than 0.001? If you lived in Antarctica it probably would be... but we are talking about Florida where mosquitoes are very common. A year ago the chances of catching it were probably zero. But with every new case of someone having the disease the probability of catching it goes up. In 2007 on Yap island when an outbreak happened 75% of the people got it before it burned itself out. So in the worst case scenario of a full on outbreak your chances of getting it are .75.... Now I don't think for a second that Florida is up to that level yet... But unless they find a way to eliminate the mosquitoes or a vaccine for zika, it is only a matter of time before the numbers move closer and closer to the high side.

In Puerto Rico back in February they had only 8 cases... that has now grown to over 4,600 in about 6 months. The probability of you getting zika at this point in Puerto Rico is .0013 so already in 6 months time it surpassed your death from a car. While the probability of getting zika is currently about 0.00006 in area where WDW is, that number will go up and is likely to surpass the death by car in with 6 months.

 

[21stamps]

Still apples to oranges comparison. Most people with cars have to drive or they wouldn't have bought the car in the first place, no one has to go to WDW for vacation so your comparison is between a luxury and a necessity. I could also say the risk of dying from any disease if far greater for people that were born alive than it is of anyone catching Zika anywhere in the world from a mosquito... So what?

But hey, let's ignore the apples to oranges since you refuse too anyway... Risk for accident and death driving a car is 0.001 based on number of fatalities in the US vs the total population, not even trying to throw out pedestrians killed by cars, because bothering to do so would make a change in probability so small it wouldn't matter. Now, is the risk of catching Zika less than 0.001? If you lived in Antarctica it probably would be... but we are talking about Florida where mosquitoes are very common. A year ago the chances of catching it were probably zero. But with every new case of someone having the disease the probability of catching it goes up. In 2007 on Yap island when an outbreak happened 75% of the people got it before it burned itself out. So in the worst case scenario of a full on outbreak your chances of getting it are .75.... Now I don't think for a second that Florida is up to that level yet... But unless they find a way to eliminate the mosquitoes or a vaccine for zika, it is only a matter of time before the numbers move closer and closer to the high side.

In Puerto Rico back in February they had only 8 cases... that has now grown to over 4,600 in about 6 months. The probability of you getting zika at this point in Puerto Rico is .0013 so already in 6 months time it surpassed your death from a car. While the probability of getting zika is currently about 0.00006 in area where WDW is, that number will go up and is likely to surpass the death by car in with 6 months.

This is where the flaw in that theory is--
Not every case is from being bitten from a mosquito itself.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Still apples to oranges comparison. Most people with cars have to drive or they wouldn't have bought the car in the first place, no one has to go to WDW for vacation so your comparison is between a luxury and a necessity. I could also say the risk of dying from any disease if far greater for people that were born alive than it is of anyone catching Zika anywhere in the world from a mosquito... So what?

But hey, let's ignore the apples to oranges since you refuse too anyway... Risk for accident and death driving a car is 0.001 based on number of fatalities in the US vs the total population, not even trying to throw out pedestrians killed by cars, because bothering to do so would make a change in probability so small it wouldn't matter. Now, is the risk of catching Zika less than 0.001? If you lived in Antarctica it probably would be... but we are talking about Florida where mosquitoes are very common. A year ago the chances of catching it were probably zero. But with every new case of someone having the disease the probability of catching it goes up. In 2007 on Yap island when an outbreak happened 75% of the people got it before it burned itself out. So in the worst case scenario of a full on outbreak your chances of getting it are .75.... Now I don't think for a second that Florida is up to that level yet... But unless they find a way to eliminate the mosquitoes or a vaccine for zika, it is only a matter of time before the numbers move closer and closer to the high side.

In Puerto Rico back in February they had only 8 cases... that has now grown to over 4,600 in about 6 months. The probability of you getting zika at this point in Puerto Rico is .0013 so already in 6 months time it surpassed your death from a car. While the probability of getting zika is currently about 0.00006 in area where WDW is, that number will go up and is likely to surpass the death by car in with 6 months.

This is unbelievable. You're projecting the risk of getting Zika from a mosquito in Orlando to be greater than the risk of dying in a car accident in 6 months? And you're saying risk rates can't be compared because one is a luxury and one is a necessity? They can still be compared as a matter of risk!

Zika thrives in poor populations where cleanliness, proper waste disposal, pest control measures, ability for medical response, and hygiene are no where near a major US city or tourist destination. Comparing Puerto Rico to Orlando is just ridiculous.

Essentially, you've agreed the chances of contracting Zika from a mosquito bite in Orlando today are essentially 0 but your projection of an outbreak in 6 months is the only thing lending any credibility to your argument.

You're projecting and using a run rate in Puerto Rico of all places. Again, if Orlando is in danger of an outbreak in 6 months, so are a lot of US southern Cities. There is nothing special or more risky in Orlando.

Zika also isn't a brand new virus. It's been around before, just cropping up today primarily due to living conditions in the current world.

Dude, the media has really gotten to you.

 

[thomas998]

This is where the flaw in that theory is--
Not every case is from being bitten from a mosquito itself.

Nor was every automobile related death the driver.

 

[thomas998]

This is unbelievable. You're projecting the risk of getting Zika from a mosquito in Orlando to be greater than the risk of dying in a car accident in 6 months? And you're saying risk rates can't be compared because one is a luxury and one is a necessity? They can still be compared as a matter of risk!

Zika thrives in poor populations where cleanliness, proper waste disposal, pest control measures, ability for medical response, and hygiene are no where near a major US city or tourist destination. Comparing Puerto Rico to Orlando is just ridiculous.

Essentially, you've agreed the chances of contracting Zika from a mosquito bite in Orlando today are essentially 0 but your projection of an outbreak in 6 months is the only thing lending any credibility to your argument.

You're projecting and using a run rate in Puerto Rico of all places. Again, if Orlando is in danger of an outbreak in 6 months, so are a lot of US southern Cities. There is nothing special or more risky in Orlando.

Zika also isn't a brand new virus. It's been around before, just cropping up today primarily due to living conditions in the current world.

Dude, the media has really gotten to you.

Actually Orlando is more risky than a lot of other southern cities due to the larger number of tourists from Brazil that go to Orlando vs the number that go to say Mobile Alabama. Do you think the disease arrived in Brazil from Asia Pacific from a mosquito that managed to fly that distance? The likely thing that brought it to Brazil was an infected person that travel to that country possibly unaware he or she was even infected... which is likely the way it came to Florida. An increased number of potential carriers will give you a better chance of a faster spread of the disease. That's what you have in Orlando vs other southern cities.

 

[21stamps]

Nor was every automobile related death the driver.

No, you're missing the entire point.

The difference is--
Car accident-another driver can hit you, and there is no way to prevent that.

Zika- no one can touch you and suddenly infect you with it against your will. There are only certain ways that it can be spread. So if you aren't getting a blood transfusion or having a vacation fling, then you're probably good.

People on this site seem to have a serious obsession with Brazilians. It's strange.

 

[LAKid53]

Health department just announced the first confirmed case of Zika in my county in the Florida Panhandle. It's a travel related case.

If guests are worried about visiting Orlando in the near future, I would suggest you visit the Florida governor's website. There are updates on the status of outbreaks in the state.

 

[SorcererMC]

I just keep looking at this from a general travel perspective. I think the numbers are something like over 2 million Americans per year sail to the Caribbean. Now add in the amount of people who do all inclusives, rent houses, go to a hotel, visit family, etc in the Caribbean, Central, and South America. That would have to almost double the over 2 million number if not more.

And with all of that we have only had 1 small area with an actual local mosquito passing the virus.

The 'South American tour groups' issue has been mentioned numerous times and I haven't addressed it prior. It's one of the few reasons why the spread of Zika virus is relevant to WDW/Orlando since many of them are from Brazil. Brazilians shouldn't be painted w/ a broad brush anymore than Floridians should be, and that is basically the point of my post. And the numbers aren't really out yet for Brazilian tourists this summer but they are down due to econ crisis and Olympics (per SeaWorld earnings report just released).

I would think that the Caribbean would only see a drop of a few % overall, if any, due to Zika. The Caribbean saw ~14.4 mln visitors from the US in 2015 (and many of those go through Port Miami, Port Everglades, and Port Canaveral for cruising). What I'm seeing in news reports is that people are still going there but avoiding islands where there are cases of Zika (eg Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Martinique, US Virgin Islands,etc). Martinique is a tourist hotspot (w/ 8% share of tourists), but most tourists go to the Bahamas (19% share) or Cozumel (14% share). Airline bookings fell 10% in February this year after the WHO declared an international public health emergency due to Zika virus. Hotel occupancy for the Caribbean has been declining every month this year, w/ a 6% drop in June from May (probably due to Airbnb bookings and have nothing to do w/ Zika).

 

[SorcererMC]

Actually Orlando is more risky than a lot of other southern cities due to the larger number of tourists from Brazil that go to Orlando vs the number that go to say Mobile Alabama. Do you think the disease arrived in Brazil from Asia Pacific from a mosquito that managed to fly that distance? The likely thing that brought it to Brazil was an infected person that travel to that country possibly unaware he or she was even infected... which is likely the way it came to Florida. An increased number of potential carriers will give you a better chance of a faster spread of the disease. That's what you have in Orlando vs other southern cities.

They think it arrived in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil from a 2014 canoe race team from French Polynesia (I don't know what month, there was an outbreak there in 2013). This means that the virus was circulating for awhile in Brazil (at least January 2015) before the May 2015 reports of confirmed cases.

Re: Puerto Rico, so they had 8 cases in February? 20 March 2016 they reported 249 total cases. So that is quite a surge in cases and I'm guessing it is complicated by the presence of dengue, as those w/ dengue antibodies seem to have a more severe reaction to Zika virus. (There is some sort of strange interaction between having dengue and subsequently Zika infection, but most of the US population wouldn't have that.)

 

[Matt_Black]

They think it arrived in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil from a 2014 canoe race team from French Polynesia (I don't know what month, there was an outbreak there in 2013). This means that the virus was circulating for awhile in Brazil (at least January 2015) before the May 2015 reports of confirmed cases.

Re: Puerto Rico, so they had 8 cases in February? 20 March 2016 they reported 249 total cases. So that is quite a surge in cases and I'm guessing it is complicated by the presence of dengue, as those w/ dengue antibodies seem to have a more severe reaction to Zika virus. (There is some sort of strange interaction between having dengue and subsequently Zika infection, but most of the US population wouldn't have that.)

It may not be so much a surge as it is local doctors getting better at diagnosing it.

 

[SorcererMC]

It may not be so much a surge as it is local doctors getting better at diagnosing it.

Yes indeed. I would like to see the CDC or local Health Depts. (especially in FL) do more widespread testing/random sampling in areas that are deemed to be high-risk so that there can be a better gauge of actual cases or probability. This is where funding becomes so important, too. (Private insurers charge $350-500/ test.)

Edit: It doesn't have to be wasteful or 'needle in a haystack'; it can be methodical according to the data and tracing of travel-related cases that local health dept. should have.

 

[LAKid53]

Yes indeed. I would like to see the CDC or local Health Depts. (especially in FL) do more widespread testing/random sampling in areas that are deemed to be high-risk so that there can be a better gauge of actual cases or probability. This is where funding becomes so important, too. (Private insurers charge $350-500/ test.)

Edit: It doesn't have to be wasteful or 'needle in a haystack'; it can be methodical according to the data and tracing of travel-related cases that local health dept. should have.

That would be all 67 counties in Florida. And I believe DOH is providing that info to the local health departments.

But as the 14 cases in Miami show, DOH needs to not only track travel related cases but those resulting from bites by local mosquitoes. DOH has stated that the type of mosquito that carries the virus is found in all parts of the state. Due to concerns from citizens about the impact of spraying on other beneficial insects and wildlife, along with budget cuts, many counties cut back their spraying for mosquitoes. Used to be that once mosquito season started, the county would send out fogging trucks in the evenings to reduce the mosquito population. My understanding is that the state has been spraying the heck out of they area in Miami.

 

[SorcererMC]

That would be all 67 counties in Florida. And I believe DOH is providing that info to the local health departments.

But as the 14 cases in Miami show, DOH needs to not only track travel related cases but those resulting from bites by local mosquitoes. DOH has stated that the type of mosquito that carries the virus is found in all parts of the state. Due to concerns from citizens about the impact of spraying on other beneficial insects and wildlife, along with budget cuts, many counties cut back their spraying for mosquitoes. Used to be that once mosquito season started, the county would send out fogging trucks in the evenings to reduce the mosquito population. My understanding is that the state has been spraying the heck out of they area in Miami.

Yes re: spraying Wynwood. They are using naled, which is I believe the standard pesticide for aerial spraying but it seemed to be controversial/contentious during the press conference yesterday.

re: FL counties - there is quite a variation in the number of travel-related cases with Miami-Dade (89), Broward (55), and Orange County (45) leading, I believe.*

Perhaps here is a good place to mention that the area of infection in Wynwood is actually 500 square feet plus a buffer zone around it.

*edited to include the numbers. There are 26 other counties w/ travel-related cases, each with a travel-related case count <20.

Edit: One other piece of data I would like to see reported is if there are mosquitoes that have been trapped/killed and tested positive for Zika. It's not in the arbovirus surveillance reports that I've read.

 

[LAKid53]

So this endless conversation about moot and mute is totally moot at this point?

I sure hope so..had to wade through several pages of it to glean any relevant information.

 

[LAKid53]

Yes re: spraying Wynwood. They are using naled, which is I believe the standard pesticide for aerial spraying but it seemed to be controversial/contentious during the press conference yesterday.

re: FL counties - there is quite a variation in the number of travel-related cases with Miami-Dade, Broward, and Orange County leading, I believe.

Perhaps here is a good place to mention that the area of infection in Wynwood is actually 500 square feet plus a buffer zone around it.

Edit: One other piece of data I would like to see reported is if there are mosquitoes that have been trapped/killed and tested positive for Zika. It's not in the arbovirus surveillance reports that I've read.

Yeah, the map shows an area of about a mile total. The update I read didn't indicate if any testing of trapped mosquitoes had been done. It stated that 6 of the additional 10 cases were identified through DOH door to door surveys of the affected area as those individuals were asymptomatic.

 

[SorcererMC]

Yeah, the map shows an area of about a mile total. The update I read didn't indicate if any testing of trapped mosquitoes had been done. It stated that 6 of the additional 10 cases were identified through DOH door to door surveys of the affected area as those individuals were asymptomatic.

Arbovirus surveillance reports are separate from the daily update reports.
Edit: I like the weekly arbovirus reports b/c they have good maps of the counties with Zika cases (travel-related).
http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/mosquito-borne-diseases/surveillance.html

 

[LAKid53]

Arbovirus surveillance reports are separate from the daily update reports.

Thanks. I've been monitoring the governor's website for updates.

 

[21stamps]

Yes re: spraying Wynwood. They are using naled, which is I believe the standard pesticide for aerial spraying but it seemed to be controversial/contentious during the press conference yesterday.

re: FL counties - there is quite a variation in the number of travel-related cases with Miami-Dade, Broward, and Orange County leading, I believe.

Perhaps here is a good place to mention that the area of infection in Wynwood is actually 500 square feet plus a buffer zone around it.

Edit: One other piece of data I would like to see reported is if there are mosquitoes that have been trapped/killed and tested positive for Zika. It's not in the arbovirus surveillance reports that I've read.

I think both Broward and Dade have been doing that. So far neither one has reported any. Unless something new came out.

I did read about a case in Davie (Broward county) that is non travel related, but they think sexually transmitted is more likely than an actual mosquito bite.

 

[SorcererMC]

Adding this for those who may be planning a WDW vacation and who are not in the at-risk population.

Re: Tourism Impact - ABC news/AP story 'FL Officials Go Into Damage Control Mode Over Zika' 6 Aug 2016
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/florida-officials-damage-control-mode-zika-41163645

Relevant excerpt, and best information/ expert opinion I have seen specifically on the subject of Orlando theme parks (and not coming from someone who is trying to promote tourism and/or potentially downplay the risk):

For the most part, theme park visitors should be fine, said North Carolina State University entomologist Michael Reiskind,
because the mosquito species most likely to spread the disease is less prevalent in Orlando and the theme parks
are likely to spend heavily on insect control.​

__________________
Orlando ranks 2nd among cities of high-risk (Miami being the first) according to the climate and length of the mosquito season. Within that context, the theme parks are could still be considered relatively 'safe' and may not have as high of a risk compared to the greater metropolitan area (ie theme parks as an enclave of Orlando b/c they have their own mosquito control).