Zika Impact

[DisneyDaver]

Bummed tonight ... My wife and I discussed our upcoming November WDW/Uni visit and are leaning strongly toward cancelling our visit due to the Zika risk. I've been looking forward to taking my 15 month old to WDW old since she was born.

We know the risk is very small, but the consequences are catastrophic. We are going to be trying for baby #2 this fall/winter. Many of our friends are not planning WDW trips in the near future due to Zika and they have been telling us we are nuts for having booked our trip.

 

[mkt]

I've had dengue three times, and I've had Chikugunya. Mosquitos love my blood.

I live in midtown Miami, a Zika affected neighborhood.

If I still haven't gotten it - you have almost no chance.

Get some repellant for peace of mind, and enjoy your trip.

Or don't go - I love empty parks.

 

[Donillary Crumpton]

Bummed tonight ... My wife and I discussed our upcoming November WDW/Uni visit and are leaning strongly toward cancelling our visit due to the Zika risk. I've been looking forward to taking my 15 month old to WDW old since she was born.

We know the risk is very small, but the consequences are catastrophic. We are going to be trying for baby #2 this fall/winter. Many of our friends are not planning WDW trips in the near future due to Zika and they have been telling us we are nuts for having booked our trip.

Change plans for DL/Uni out west, perhaps?

 

[Santa Raccoon 77]

http://www.google.com/url?url=http:...CgAMAA&usg=AFQjCNGaO2zZ-cn-iw7VJ0FUo3rZ5b_-XQ

 

[SorcererMC]

Bummed tonight ... My wife and I discussed our upcoming November WDW/Uni visit and are leaning strongly toward cancelling our visit due to the Zika risk. I've been looking forward to taking my 15 month old to WDW old since she was born.

We know the risk is very small, but the consequences are catastrophic. We are going to be trying for baby #2 this fall/winter. Many of our friends are not planning WDW trips in the near future due to Zika and they have been telling us we are nuts for having booked our trip.

You are not alone. From OS article dated 09-15-16. A recent survey showed that half of those polled (n=2,592) who were planning trips to WDW were reconsidering their plans due to Zika (even though there are zero reported cases of local transmission for Orlando). I think that those who weren't already planning a trip were kicked out of the survey but it's not entirely clear from how the article is written.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/tourism/

Disney has yet to see any impact from Zika, but the 'lag time' is unknown. BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield (the same analyst who was allegedly shunned by Iger) included the stats in a research note on Disney: "Given how far out Disney World vacations are often planned, it is unclear" when travelers' worries will impact attendance, BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield wrote. "However, given how meaningfully the cancellation/deferral rate appears to be, this is clearly a key question Disney should be pushing management to talk about."

 

[21stamps]

Bummed tonight ... My wife and I discussed our upcoming November WDW/Uni visit and are leaning strongly toward cancelling our visit due to the Zika risk. I've been looking forward to taking my 15 month old to WDW old since she was born.

We know the risk is very small, but the consequences are catastrophic. We are going to be trying for baby #2 this fall/winter. Many of our friends are not planning WDW trips in the near future due to Zika and they have been telling us we are nuts for having booked our trip.

To put it in gruesome perspective though-

The chance of contracting Zika in a place that hasn't had any local transmission is probably even less odds than being in a catastrophic accident on the way to or from Florida.

It's obviously your decision, just wanted to throw some logic in the mix. I do think if you would be frightened the entire time then it's not worth it.

good luck

 

[DisneyDaver]

To put it in gruesome perspective though-

The chance of contracting Zika in a place that hasn't had any local transmission is probably even less odds than being in a catastrophic accident on the way to or from Florida.

It's obviously your decision, just wanted to throw some logic in the mix. I do think if you would be frightened the entire time then it's not worth it.

good luck

Fair points. Though by November the local transmission may or may not be an issue. The issue you brought up in your last sentence is the more important one ... if my wife and I are going to be thinking about it each time one of us gets a mosquito bite, then whether logical or not, we might have more fun elsewhere.

 

[DisneyDaver]

You are not alone. From OS article dated 09-15-16. A recent survey showed that half of those polled (n=2,592) who were planning trips to WDW were reconsidering their plans due to Zika (even though there are zero reported cases of local transmission for Orlando). I think that those who weren't already planning a trip were kicked out of the survey but it's not entirely clear from how the article is written.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/tourism/

Disney has yet to see any impact from Zika, but the 'lag time' is unknown. BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield (the same analyst who was allegedly shunned by Iger) included the stats in a research note on Disney: "Given how far out Disney World vacations are often planned, it is unclear" when travelers' worries will impact attendance, BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield wrote. "However, given how meaningfully the cancellation/deferral rate appears to be, this is clearly a key question Disney should be pushing management to talk about."

Well, last night my wife and I made the call to cancel out November 8 WDW/Uni trip because of the Zika risk (we will be starting to try for another child soon). We are now considering planning for a January/February visit to Disneyland.

You seem to be the most knowledgeable of the posters here on this issue. Do you have any guidance on where I would look to get a sense of the Zika risk in Anaheim in Jan/Feb?

We were initially thinking that the risk would be very low since the average temps will be a lower and mosquito populations are lower in Southern Cal than Central Florida to begin with. After a quick search, however, I have read articles stating that some now think the aedes aegypti mosquitos can survive even when temps hit 40s and 50s at night. And my own thinking is that since many people in the US travel to Mexico and Central American during the Winter (plus Jan/Feb will be summer time in South America), there may be many more travel cases coming into Southern California this winter which would increase the risk of local transmission. I'm not looking for any guarantees but any info you have (or suggestions where to look for info) would be appreciated. Thanks!

 

[SorcererMC]

Well, last night my wife and I made the call to cancel out November 8 WDW/Uni trip because of the Zika risk (we will be starting to try for another child soon). We are now considering planning for a January/February visit to Disneyland.

You seem to be the most knowledgeable of the posters here on this issue. Do you have any guidance on where I would look to get a sense of the Zika risk in Anaheim in Jan/Feb?

We were initially thinking that the risk would be very low since the average temps will be a lower and mosquito populations are lower in Southern Cal than Central Florida to begin with. After a quick search, however, I have read articles stating that some now think the aedes aegypti mosquitos can survive even when temps hit 40s and 50s at night. And my own thinking is that since many people in the US travel to Mexico and Central American during the Winter (plus Jan/Feb will be summer time in South America), there may be many more travel cases coming into Southern California this winter which would increase the risk of local transmission. I'm not looking for any guarantees but any info you have (or suggestions where to look for info) would be appreciated. Thanks!

Re: SoCal. What you have stated re: low average temps and low humidity is consistent with what I have read, and the risk would be very low. There is an interactive CA map here that will show you exactly where those mosquito species have been found: http://cdphdata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=57367199287a4d18a2cecf107854255b. The mosquito population in winter would be very low (even w/ avg temps of 45F/7C), and adult survival appears to be ~7 days at those temperatures. Some of the studies re: mosquito survival are based on lab conditions so keep that in mind. Orange Co. has had a total of 23 travel-related Zika cases (since March 2016) as of Oct 7, 2016, on avg maybe 2-4 people a month returning with it. So, in Jan-Feb there would be a very low mosquito population and a very low infected human population that would need to interact in the same place at the same time in order to facilitate any local transmission.

Here is a risk map for the aedes aegypti mosquito population distribution by month. I'm not sure where I got it but I think it's from the same article where NASA Atmospheric Research got their data or that it's their map.

CA Dept of Health Link re: mosquitoes. https://www.cdph.ca.gov/HEALTHINFO/DISCOND/Pages/Aedes-albopictus-and-Aedes-aegypti-Mosquitoes.aspx
CA Dept of Health link re: Zika. https://www.cdph.ca.gov/HealthInfo/discond/Pages/Zika.aspx
Orange Co Dept of Health re: Zika. http://ochealthinfo.com/phs/about/dcepi/epi/disease/zika

I hope this helps and best of luck!

 

[Goofyernmost]

Are they even an issue this time of year? I always thought of them as summer pests. Haven't heard of any outbreaks for well over a month now.

 

[SorcererMC]

Are they even an issue this time of year? I always thought of them as summer pests. Haven't heard of any outbreaks for well over a month now.

The above poster was asking about CA. For FL the mosquito season tapers off in Oct-Nov, so yes peak 'Zika' season would be summer June-Nov, and low risk for winter. The ongoing Miami cluster is still having new cases of local transmission reported but I think that is due to the lag time in testing, and no it's not capturing as much media attention right now.

ETA: South FL has a year-round mosquito climate, but I would not expect year-round Zika virus local transmission in FL.

 

[21stamps]

Well, last night my wife and I made the call to cancel out November 8 WDW/Uni trip because of the Zika risk (we will be starting to try for another child soon). We are now considering planning for a January/February visit to Disneyland.

You seem to be the most knowledgeable of the posters here on this issue. Do you have any guidance on where I would look to get a sense of the Zika risk in Anaheim in Jan/Feb?

We were initially thinking that the risk would be very low since the average temps will be a lower and mosquito populations are lower in Southern Cal than Central Florida to begin with. After a quick search, however, I have read articles stating that some now think the aedes aegypti mosquitos can survive even when temps hit 40s and 50s at night. And my own thinking is that since many people in the US travel to Mexico and Central American during the Winter (plus Jan/Feb will be summer time in South America), there may be many more travel cases coming into Southern California this winter which would increase the risk of local transmission. I'm not looking for any guarantees but any info you have (or suggestions where to look for info) would be appreciated. Thanks!

Have you thought about January or February in WDW?

Like @SorcererMC said, Orlando is not Sputh Florida. It is cold in Orlando during both of those months.

 

[DisneyDaver]

Have you thought about January or February in WDW?

Like @SorcererMC said, Orlando is not Sputh Florida. It is cold in Orlando during both of those months.

Yes, we have thought about WDW in Jan or Feb, but figured Anaheim was even lower risk.

 

[DisneyDaver]

Re: SoCal. What you have stated re: low average temps and low humidity is consistent with what I have read, and the risk would be very low. There is an interactive CA map here that will show you exactly where those mosquito species have been found: http://cdphdata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=57367199287a4d18a2cecf107854255b. The mosquito population in winter would be very low (even w/ avg temps of 45F/7C), and adult survival appears to be ~7 days at those temperatures. Some of the studies re: mosquito survival are based on lab conditions so keep that in mind. Orange Co. has had a total of 23 travel-related Zika cases (since March 2016) as of Oct 7, 2016, on avg maybe 2-4 people a month returning with it. So, in Jan-Feb there would be a very low mosquito population and a very low infected human population that would need to interact in the same place at the same time in order to facilitate any local transmission.

Here is a risk map for the aedes aegypti mosquito population distribution by month. I'm not sure where I got it but I think it's from the same article where NASA Atmospheric Research got their data or that it's their map.View attachment 168444



CA Dept of Health Link re: mosquitoes. https://www.cdph.ca.gov/HEALTHINFO/DISCOND/Pages/Aedes-albopictus-and-Aedes-aegypti-Mosquitoes.aspx
CA Dept of Health link re: Zika. https://www.cdph.ca.gov/HealthInfo/discond/Pages/Zika.aspx
Orange Co Dept of Health re: Zika. http://ochealthinfo.com/phs/about/dcepi/epi/disease/zika

I hope this helps and best of luck!

Much appreciated. This is very helpful! I acknowledge we may be overreacting and overestimating the risk in Orlando but the consequences are so dire and dramatic that there is an irrational emotional component to the decision process.

 

[SorcererMC]

Much appreciated. This is very helpful! I acknowledge we may be overreacting and overestimating the risk in Orlando but the consequences are so dire and dramatic that there is an irrational emotional component to the decision process.

Of course/ I understand. I hope you have a fun trip!