Wish (Walt Disney Animation - November 2023)

[Disstevefan1]

I think it will be a repeat of Elemental (minus Korea saving the day). I bet it won't make $150m domestically during a month run. It will definitely make more than Wish and Lightyear.

However, unless there is something amazingly different in this, it won't be on my summer watching list. A sequel to that movie is just not that interesting.

Why minus Korea? Sincerely, I do not know why?

As to sequels, I will go back to what I posted about Godzilla minus one. How many Godzilla movies were there?

Rocky 4 made the most money of all in the Rocky series.

I totally understand many have lost faith in Disney movies.

I also understand Disney's movie budgets are out of control and every movie they make (because of their our of control budgets) almost require the movie to be a blockbuster to break even or make money.

I will maintain, how well this movie does will come down to story and characters.

 

[Disney Irish]

Normally I’d agree but we’re not in normal times, with traditional TV struggling, the movie division losing billions, and D+ also losing billions it feels like the Disney company is far more dependent on the parks income right now than they’ve probably been in several decades.

The parks are the one financial bright spot for Disney at the moment, the fact they aren't building anything new (domestically) right now indicates to me the parks are still offsetting everyone else’s losses, including their own loses during Covid.

It’s a sad time to be a Disney parks fan, they’ve talked about investing in the parks but until shovels actually hit dirt there’s nothing coming to the Disney parks to be excited about.

And while this isn't probably the best thread for this, if you actually look at the revenue Studios/TV (Entertainment) actually brought in more than Parks (Experiences) for 2023.

Disney revenue by segment 2023 | Statista

Disney's revenue breakdown shows that the Media and Entertainment segment generates the largest portion of revenue for the company.

www.statista.com

And so while the Parks do bring in more operating income than Studios/TV due to expenses, Studio/TV is still the bulk of where revenue came from in 2023. So yeah Parks do print money for the company due to its lower margins, but this has been the case for many decades now.

And speaking about the lack of domestic parks investments, how many years did WDW go without much new investment in the 2000s? Or how about the over 20 years Disneyland went without a brand new attraction in Walt's park? Some of you are making seem like this is a new thing just happening due to 2023 box office, when in reality there have always been ebbs and flows in park investments even when Studios were very healthy.

 

[Disney Irish]

I just don't know any more, and based off of the box office results that Disney has gotten in the last 60 days for their animated/family films, I am leaning towards the belief that Inside Out 2 will not break even, assuming it has the usual bloated $200 Million budget and a big marketing budget.

Phroobar already mentioned several reasons why it's doubtful to be a big hit, but I'll add these to the list...

• A clear trendline of box office hard data that show traditional Disney/Pixar audiences no longer show up automatically to Disney/Pixar movies. Not just in America, but overseas. Often, most notably overseas.
• Was Inside Out that impactful pop-culturally? I don't get the sense that it was. It's only representation in the parks is a hand me down and repainted spinner B Ticket at DCA left over from Bug's Land. And that's only because TDA still has a few execs who are smart enough to claw back ride capacity for their parks, unlike the less talented TDO execs.
• I have no recollection of any Inside Out costumes showing up at my front door on Halloween. Facts!

You said similar things about Avatar having no long lasting cultural impact, and look what happened when Avatar 2 came out.....

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

And while this isn't probably the best thread for this, if you actually look at the revenue Studios/TV (Entertainment) actually brought in more than Parks (Experiences) for 2023.

View attachment 763629

Disney revenue by segment 2023 | Statista

Disney's revenue breakdown shows that the Media and Entertainment segment generates the largest portion of revenue for the company.

www.statista.com

And so while the Parks do bring in more operating income than Studios/TV due to expenses, Studio/TV is still the bulk of where revenue came from in 2023. So yeah Parks do print money for the company due to its lower margins, but this has been the case for many decades now.

And speaking about the lack of domestic parks investments, how many years did WDW go without much new investment in the 2000s? Or how about the over 20 years Disneyland went without a brand new attraction in Walt's park? Some of you are making seem like this is a new thing just happening due to 2023 box office, when in reality there have always been ebbs and flows in park investments even when Studios were very healthy.

Revenue favors entertainment but operating income heavily favors the parks.

Last fiscal year Disney made $1.4 billion on Entertainment (down 32%), $1.5 billion on Sports (down 9%), and $9 billion on the parks (up 23%).

Without the parks income those executive bonuses aren’t happening.

 

[Disney Irish]

Revenue favors entertainment but operating income heavily favors the parks.

Last fiscal year Disney made $1.4 billion on Entertainment (down 32%), $1.5 billion on Sports (down 9%), and $9 billion on the parks (up 23%).

Without the parks income those executive bonuses aren’t happening.

I'm not disputing Parks impact to the bottom line. My point has been that this idea that the domestic parks don't have new projects or parades or whatever announced because of the 2023 box office is a false narrative. And it ignores the many other factors that go into new capex projects for Parks including Disney's long history of under-investing in both domestic resorts.

 

[Phroobar]

Why minus Korea? Sincerely, I do not know why?

Korea gave Elemental a huge international box office boost. It kind of saved the day.

 

[Phroobar]

It used to be that every time there was a new movie, Disneyland received either a new day time parade and/or stage show to promote it. That way of marketing is long gone I guess.

Beauty & the Beast live stage show
The Lion King Celebration
Hunchback of Notre Dame stage show
Hercules Victory Parade
Pocahontas stage show
Dick Tracy show
Disney's Aladdin show
Pixar Play Parade (hocked whatever new movie Pixar had)

 

[Disney Irish]

It used to be that every time there was a new movie, Disneyland received either a new day time parade and/or stage show to promote it. That way of marketing is long gone I guess.

Beauty & the Beast live stage show
The Lion King Celebration
Hunchback of Notre Dame stage show
Hercules Victory Parade
Pocahontas stage show
Dick Tracy show
Disney's Aladdin show
Pixar Play Parade (hocked whatever new movie Pixar had)

Notice that outside of the Pixar Parade those are all from 30 years ago. It was a different era of the Parks.

 

[Phroobar]

Notice that outside of the Pixar Parade those are all from 30 years ago. It was a different era of the Parks.

So why not do that anymore? They even stopped putting previews in the Captain EO theater. We don't even get an inflatable chicken head overlooking DCA anymore.

 

[Disney Irish]

So why not do that anymore? They even stopped putting previews in the Captain EO theater. We don't even get an inflatable chicken head overlooking DCA anymore.

Posters on this very site complained and made fun of such thing like previews in the Tomorrowland Theaters and other cheap marking ploys, and you want them back?

 

[Phroobar]

Posters on this very site complained and made fun of such thing like previews in the Tomorrowland Theaters and other cheap marking ploys, and you want them back?

It is better than Princess or random hero of the day meet & greet.
Besides where is Bella Baxter meet and greet at DCA? Universal would do it.

 

[Disney Irish]

It is better than Princess or random hero of the day meet & greet.

The lines of guests for the M&Gs would disagree with you.

Besides where is Bella Baxter meet and greet at DCA? Universal would do it.

Name any other Searchlight or 20th Century character M&G in DCA or any other domestic Disney Park for that matter. Heck name any Blue Sky characters in any Disney Park.

 

[BuddyThomas]

It is better than Princess or random hero of the day meet & greet.
Besides where is Bella Baxter meet and greet at DCA? Universal would do it.

Seriously???????

 

[Advisable Joseph]

Does it give you satisfaction that’s they lost money?

Somewhat uninformed panicking.
See my post in the Box Office thread.

Here's a reminder that movies make money on much more than just box office

James Cameron Cuts The Net As King Of The World Wins Deadline’s 2022 Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament: The Data Behind The Dollars

James Cameron is king of the world again for winning Deadline's 2022 Most Valuable Blockbuster Tournament with Avatar: The Way of Water.

deadline.com

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

So losses aren't as cataclysmic as they may seem. The 3x rule is right out!

Also, Deadline's figures seem to only include the initial revenue for streaming video, etc. when comparing their results to researchers who looked at the actual finances of films, who saw much a higher total revenue to box office ratio, as discovered in:





I have to imagine lifetime stream revenue from Encanto must be truly massive, considering how much movies can make from streaming up front, apparently.

Things aren't quite as dire as this thread seems to be painting.

 

[TsWade2]

Man, this is getting overheating! Okay, look guys, I know Wish is not really the best film that we hope for and it will sadly be a flop at the box office, but to me, I think it’s a great film and I enjoyed it. And I can bet it’ll be a hit on DisneyPlus and become a classic, whenever it comes To DisneyPlus. Anyway, I know Disney Animation is having some whoopsie daisy problem right now, but I think WDAS and Pixar will do better in the future even if it they have to include sequels. So, maybe they should just go back adapting fairy tales again. In fact, I do hear rumors that Disney Animation is developing Bluebeard and The Princess and The {ea version called Penelope in the works. But those are just rumors from The Disinsider website, so take it a a grain of salt. Also, I'm sorry if I keep saying it's the end of Disney. I just said that because I'm worried for Disney. I mean the underperformance at the box office and now there's a proxy war with Nelson Peltz again. So, (I know this is repetitive and I know you guys are doubting this, but) I hope Wish will do well on DisneyPlus in the meantime.

 

[Phroobar]

The lines of guests for the M&Gs would disagree with you.


Name any other Searchlight or 20th Century character M&G in DCA or any other domestic Disney Park for that matter. Heck name any Blue Sky characters in any Disney Park.

Tell me why they aren't. Every other acquisition is in the parks. Where is the Ice Age ride and characters? I would love to see Napoleon Dynamite wondering around the park. The Black Swan experience. Maybe Downtown Disney should have a Full Monty bar? Keeping Disney up with the times. 28 Days Later maze at Mickey's Halloween party.

 

[DKampy]

Tell me why they aren't. Every other acquisition is in the parks. Where is the Ice Age ride and characters? I would love to see Napoleon Dynamite wondering around the park. The Black Swan experience. Maybe Downtown Disney should have a Full Monty bar? Keeping Disney up with the times. 28 Days Later maze at Mickey's Halloween party.

I don’t think all those IP’s would meet your household rules…

 

[Phroobar]

I don’t think all those IP’s would meet your household rules…

No they don't. However Napoleon Dynamite was fantastic!

 

[brideck]

Tell me why they aren't. Every other acquisition is in the parks. Where is the Ice Age ride and characters? I would love to see Napoleon Dynamite wondering around the park. The Black Swan experience. Maybe Downtown Disney should have a Full Monty bar? Keeping Disney up with the times. 28 Days Later maze at Mickey's Halloween party.

The Black Swan experience... Man, now I just want a Russia pavilion at Epcot that runs abbreviated performances of Tchaikovsky ballets in a theater.

 

[Disney Irish]

Tell me why they aren't. Every other acquisition is in the parks. Where is the Ice Age ride and characters? I would love to see Napoleon Dynamite wondering around the park. The Black Swan experience. Maybe Downtown Disney should have a Full Monty bar? Keeping Disney up with the times. 28 Days Later maze at Mickey's Halloween party.

Why aren't Rescuers or Bambi? Or how about Bedknobs and Broomsticks? Even more modern, how about Tomorrowland outside its name sake land? Or Hunchback? Or "throw any random Disney film name in here".

Disney has plenty of "Disney" IPs they don't utilize in and around the Parks, so it should be no surprise they don't utilize any from 20th Century and Searchlight.