I never said it was an apples to apples comparison in terms of room size. What I said was, DVC tries to make it out like you are guaranteed to save tons of money, and that is not always the case.
Well, gee, why don't we compare to paying $40 per night to stay off-site then? Who cares about apples to apples? :ROFLOL:
There's no 2 ways about it - You gotta buy resale. Buying through Disney makes zero sense.
Depends upon the situation. Allow me to illustrate.
Calculating breakeven points is all well and good but cynics tend to discount the latter years of dramatic savings while focusing on the up-front period where DVC may cost more than paying cash.
A better way to analyze it (IMO) is to express all dollars on a per-year basis. In each case we know what is being paid up front so why not spread that out over the full ownership period.
As I said, there are VWL points available on the resale market for under $70 per point. For the sake of argument, I'll use the figure $75 per point as a purchase price. And I'll also assume that the purchase will be funded with a home equity line at 4% interest over 10 years.
The total cost including interest is $91 per point. VWL contracts expire in 2042 giving a buyer 32 years of ownership. $91 / 32 years means you are paying $2.84 per point, per year to buy the VWL contract.
Take the $2.84 and add in 2010 dues of $5.20 per point.
Using those numbers we can conclude that a single VWL point in 2010 is costing a DVC owner $8.04.
Then it's just a question of how the points are used.
A 360 sq ft Deluxe Studio room in January runs 105 points per week. At the $8.04 per point rate, that Studio costs the owner $844 per week or $120 per night. Period. No taxes. No additional fees. $120 per night for a room that is comparable in size and amenities to any other Wilderness Lodge guest room.
A 700+ sq ft One Bedroom villa is 206 points for the same time period or $236 per night. A Studio in the summer is either 118 or 127 points per week or $135 - 145 per night.
Those numbers are all expressed in 2010 dollars, of course. Annual dues will increase over time, but so will rack rates. In fact, room rates are subject to even more radical adjustments since Disney can discount at its whim. One year they offer a 40% discount. The next year it's 15%. Then it's 25%. There is no way to plan or budget for such unknowns.
Meanwhile, as a DVC member I KNOW that my rates are locked in. I'm saving 65-75% off of rack rates for the next 30-50 years regardless of what sort of discounts Disney decides to offer cash guests. (And they aren't going to discount by 75%
)
As for other purchase options, turns out the VWL resale is actually the most expensive I looked at. Buying SSR resale for $65 per point ($79 per point when interest is added) plus the dues of $4.46 in 2010 comes out to
$6.25 per point, per year. If I use SSR resale points to book that VWL Studio in the summer, it costs me only $105 per night.
Even a direct purchase of Bay Lake Tower is reasonable due to the longer contract and lower dues. At $110 per point ($133 with 10 years of interest) plus the $3.78 in dues, the annual cost is just
$6.44 per point, per year.
I certainly understand that there are many reasons not to buy into DVC. If you don't like the villa setup, the need to book months in advance or the limited inventory at some properties, so be it. But please don't use your fabricated numbers to allege that DVC is a bad deal because a One Bedroom Villa costs more than your standard view room at the Wilderness Lodge. In any honest apples-to-apples comparison, DVC will cost less than even discounted Deluxe cash rooms.
And that's not even mentioning a few extra perks like free Internet service, Annual Pass discounts ($100-125 off per person, per year), dining discounts, added flexibility in booking dining plans, etc.