WDW Reopening Estimates

[Parker in NYC]

Can your company keep some semblance of regular operations with employees working from home another 7-8 months? Disney may not be able to afford to do that with its parks, even with great Disney+ subscription numbers.

Who knows at this point, I'm just the messenger.

 

[WDWTrojan]

It should be a talking point among those on the right, left, center, and apolitical. Because it's the truth.

Do a google search for the term "flatten the curve" and set the search date for the first half of March. The top result is this article from Live Science. Here is the main takeaway from that article:



And here is the "flatten the curve" chart that went viral in early March:

Any grade schooler could explain what the message of that graph is.

If officials want to extend stay-at-home orders for other reasons, then let's have that conversation. But it's simply an attempt to rewrite history to suggest that the above didn't happen in early March.

Again, the point you miss is that we have done nothing to fundamentally change the trajectory of the illness in how its managed or treated. We were "flattening the curve," yes to reduce hospitalizations. However, absent a therapeutic, vaccine, herd immunity or a massive testing program, if we remove the social distancing measures and go back to where we were (or a socially distanced version thereof), we will literally have done nothing but have given the virus a vacation. Hospitals will fill up, many will die, etc. This is not rocket science.

 

[robhedin]

Oops, posted in the wrong thread. Just wanted to say that my company is aiming for a late 4th Q or 2021 return. We have offices nationwide. Make of it what you will.

Mine is as well... sort of. But there's currently a lot of concern about parents and their children. If kids are back in school in the fall, then we'll likely bring everyone back to the office. If not, most people can still work remotely (albeit not necessarily optimally).

 

[WDWTrojan]

The US switched from containment to mitigation in February, which essentially put tracing/isolating out of the realistic plan. Article from the University of Minnesota on February 25th as proof.

As CDC warns of US COVID-19 spread, labs frustrated over lack of tests

www.cidrap.umn.edu

As for the argument we were waiting until drugs/vaccines were developed, that is just simply not true and a completely new narrative. I am linking below many definitively center or left publications with articles explaining why social distancing was put in place to spread out the same number of cases over a longer period of time and not until a drug/vaccine was developed.
Live Science March 16th:

Coronavirus: What is 'flattening the curve,' and will it work?

Many hundreds of thousands of infections will happen — but they don't all have to happen at once.

www.livescience.com

CNBC March 19th:

Flattening the coronavirus curve: What this means and why it matters

The WHO has repeatedly underlined the importance of "flattening the curve" in order to tackle the coronavirus outbreak.

www.cnbc.com

Forbes March 13th:

Why Everything Is Closing For Coronavirus: It’s Called ‘Flattening The Curve’

Why are there so many closings and cancellations with fewer than 2,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases? Because public health officials know what's coming.

www.forbes.com

Again, you are only looking at half of the picture. That IS the primary goal of flattening the curve. However, we have made no substantive changes to our testing (in most states), capacity or in therapeutics. Given this, with many states just reopening without much mitigation, we are literally right back to where we started in a month or two.

Here are some articles now:

Flattening the Curve for COVID-19: What Does It Mean and How Can You Help?

History shows that taking strong steps now to slow the spread of coronavirus will help communities and individuals.

healthblog.uofmhealth.org

“If you don’t have as many cases coming to the hospitals and clinics at once, it can actually lower the number of total deaths from the virus and from other causes,” he says. “And, importantly, it buys us time for university and government scientists, and industry, to create new therapies, medications and potentially a vaccine.”

Why we should keep trying to contain the coronavirus and 'flatten the curve'

The coronavirus outbreak is now a pandemic, but officials won't give up on trying to slow the virus' spread. Here's why containment is still important.

www.latimes.com

"But slowing it down is crucial. Even when infections are unavoidable, pushing them into the future could give manufacturers a chance to replenish protective garb and masks for healthcare workers and increase the chances that a treatment will be available by the time a patient needs it. Some might even benefit from a coronavirus vaccine by the time COVID-19 reaches them, though that is nearly a year away at best."

Commentary: 6 steps to sustainably flatten the coronavirus curve

Commentary: The U.S. should take these six steps to flatten the curve of infections from the coronavirus disease, or COVID-19.

fortune.com

“What we have to do right now is to put a lid on this epidemic, to flatten the curve of infection and buy ourselves some time to get a vaccine,” said Georgetown University’s Lawrence Gostin, an expert in public health law. “We are going to have to think about bringing all the interventions we have up to scale.”

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

Again, the point you miss is that we have done nothing to fundamentally change the trajectory of the illness in how its managed or treated. We were "flattening the curve," yes to reduce hospitalizations. However, absent a therapeutic, vaccine, herd immunity or a massive testing program, if we remove the social distancing measures and go back to where we were (or a socially distanced version thereof), we will literally have done nothing but have given the virus a vacation. Hospitals will fill up, many will die, etc. This is not rocket science.

Those are important considerations as well. All I'm saying is it's not a cheap talking point to say the goalposts have shifted on the justifications for the stay-at-home orders.

Back in early March, people reluctantly followed the orders and closed their businesses, in large part because of the infamous "flatten the curve" chart. We could all imagine the nightmare scenario of blowing the lid off that dashed line:

I'm not sure we ever got close to the dashed line as a country; we certainly came close in NYC. But if the "health care capacity" issue is not currently an immediate threat, then we need to forget about the chart altogether, because that is why the chart existed in the first place.

So if we discard the chart, then we lose our justification for the stay-at-home orders.

Which means a new justification needs to be articulated. And it needs to weigh the public health costs of continued economic devastation with the costs of an increase in cases.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Those are important considerations as well. All I'm saying is it's not a cheap talking point to say the goalposts have shifted on the justifications for the stay-at-home orders.

Back in early March, people reluctantly followed the orders and closed their businesses, in large part because of the infamous "flatten the curve" chart. We could all imagine the nightmare scenario of blowing the lid off that dashed line:

I'm not sure we ever got close to the dashed line as a country; we certainly came close in NYC. But if the "health care capacity" issue is not currently an immediate threat, then we need to forget about the chart altogether, because that is why the chart existed in the first place.

So if we discard the chart, then we lose our justification for the stay-at-home orders.

Which means a new justification needs to be articulated. And it needs to weigh the public health costs of continued economic devastation with the costs of an increase in cases.

Again, the issue is there is nothing stopping Tulsa or Austin or any other city from becoming the next New York. Hence the need to continue some forms of mitigation, even if not a full lock down, absent a fundamental change somewhere.

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

Again, the issue is there is nothing stopping Tulsa or Austin or any other city from becoming the next New York. Hence the need to continue some forms of mitigation, even if not a full lock down, absent a fundamental change somewhere.

And this is a different conversation than the early March "flatten the curve" one.

 

[WDWTrojan]

And this is a different conversation than the early March "flatten the curve" one.

It is not. We flattened the curve for a month and a half, great. We didn't do anything with that time that will prevent the virus from taking hold in other cities the way it did in NYC.

 

[Kamikaze]

It is not. We flattened the curve for a month and a half, great. We didn't do anything with that time that will prevent the virus from taking hold in other cities the way it did in NYC.

No, but the work done in the NYC Metro was a great success here. Just because (insert moronic city & state here) gets hit hard doesn't mean tons of lives weren't saved in the Greatest City in the World.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

Well, this thread is fun.....

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Ummmmm who does? What am i gonna do when i can't pay my bills?

Yep! the lockdown was enacted under data that is no longer accurate or relevant.

But will immediately become relevant again when things re-open and people refuse to wear a mask or social distance.

 

[marni1971]

Also, I estimate WDW will be open in a month but could of been open a month ago as well.

Like Disneyland ?

Give Iger a call. He’ll be elated you’ve got it all figured out.

 

[Tom P.]

I never consented to a mandatory, forceful, indefinite shutdown of the economy with social interactions forbidden.

I agreed to a temporarily (Mostly 2 weeks) shutdown and precautions that was more optional and lacked the dystopia authoritarian vibe, that we know now would of been useless anyways because the virus has been floating free around the country at least since January.

There is no evidence that the lockdown is doing anything beneficial other than destroying the entire economy. Also, I estimate WDW will be open in a month but could of been open a month ago as well.

I am making the assumption that you live in the United States. If I am wrong, please excuse me.

In the United States, we do not practice direct democracy. We are a representative republic. We elect our representatives and they set policy within broad frameworks and guidelines. We do not have to "consent" to any individual policy, nor do we get the option to just ignore a policy we don't like.

If you think a policy is a bad judgment, your recourse is to vote against the people who enacted it. If you believe a policy is unconstitutional, your recourse is to go to court and challenge it. Those are what you can do as a citizen to influence policy.

But no one has to get your consent.

 

[Tom P.]

Again, no. We gave the virus a mild vacation for a month and a half. Most cities have not substantially ramped up testing or increased capacity. Absent that, reopening the economy just puts us back to square one. Hospitals will become overwhelmed and many will die.

Again, yes. Literally the entire point of the original policy was to give the virus a "mild vacation" and then resume living. That was the stated purpose. Not to eradicate the virus. Not to prevent it from spreading. None of that. It was to give the healthcare system time to cope. That's all. Now if you want to argue that we should have a different policy, that's fine. I don't even necessarily disagree. But the stated aims of the original plan was short-term mitigation and that's it.

 

[Tom P.]

If it violated my rights (large arguement it has) then yes they do.

You have the option to file a lawsuit in court to challenge a policy on the grounds that it violates your rights. That is your recourse as a citizen. You do not have the right to simply declare that you think a policy is bad and ignore it.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

Maybe before anyone posts anything they read it to check for sounding like a complete first? Not name calling, simply a public service announcement from a place of concern.

 

[brianstl]

No, but the work done in the NYC Metro was a great success here. Just because (insert moronic city & state here) gets hit hard doesn't mean tons of lives weren't saved in the Greatest City in the World.

The work done in NYC wasn’t a success. NYC was a mess that was prolonged because they refused to shut down the subway system.

 

[brianstl]

More recently? I'm not a doctor and even I understand the basics of virology. Vaccines, antivirals or herd immunity are the only ways out of this if we want to eliminate social distancing measures. The nightly news shouldn't have to tell you this.

We are social distancing until one of those three things happens, economic viability or not.

What if none of those things happen for years? Herd immunity is stalled by social distancing and is only temporary. Once herd immunity is achieved we are inside 12 months of the next outbreak because immunity isn’t permanent.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Herd immunity is stalled by social distancing and is only temporary.

Not true. New cases have been occurring even with social distancing and stay-at-home recommendations in place.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Again, yes. Literally the entire point of the original policy was to give the virus a "mild vacation" and then resume living. That was the stated purpose. Not to eradicate the virus. Not to prevent it from spreading. None of that. It was to give the healthcare system time to cope. That's all. Now if you want to argue that we should have a different policy, that's fine. I don't even necessarily disagree. But the stated aims of the original plan was short-term mitigation and that's it.

You are missing the point. The goal was to give it a vacation so we could undertake some fundamental changes, whether it be improved testing or capacity, while not filling up emergency rooms. What’s the difference between filling up emergency rooms in June vs April? Nothing. The minute we reopen things without continued mitigation we are literally right back to where we were in March.