WDW Reopening Estimates

[HansGruber]

What if none of those things happen for years? Herd immunity is stalled by social distancing and is only temporary. Once herd immunity is achieved we are inside 12 months of the next outbreak because immunity isn’t permanent.

It's too difficult to comment either way given our lack of knowledge on the virus.
We don't know anything about immunity. If immunity does exist, we don't know if it's permanent, long-lasting or short-term.

Regardless of the above answers, I don't see how having a free-for-all solves our problems. Unless the solution is to let the strong survive and the weak die.

 

[HansGruber]

Not true. New cases have been occurring even with social distancing and stay-at-home recommendations in place.

True that. We've been quarantined for 2 months and my state saw 374 additional cases since yesterday.

 

[WDWTrojan]

The virus has been here since at least January. The data is conclusive that the morality rate is below 1%. We can handle any excess hospitalizations but keeping everything locked up forever is not sustainable, authoritarian, and extremely unnecessary.

No data is conclusive of that. There are some studies showing this is more widespread than we think but it is too early to tell. Many of the studies where people are “asymptomatic” don’t follow up in a week to see who has had symptoms.

Some states and areas can handle the hospitalization, others can’t.

We’ve lost 75,000 people in 6 weeks with a ton of mitigation. We are looking at hundreds of thousands of deaths. It’s insane people can still think this is a mild illness.

 

[HansGruber]

The data is conclusive that the morality rate is below 1%.

Oh PLEASE prove this figure! I'm BEGGING you to provide conclusive data to prove this.

Applying simple mathematics on these figures...

74,121 US deaths / 1,256,669 US infections * 100 = 5.89% mortality rate.

 

[brianstl]

My local Home Depot, which is massive, is only letting a certain number of people in at a time. They have these stupid 6 ft markers all over the floor. I go to the lumber section and there is crap EVERYWHERE in the aisles, effectively narrowing the aisle to where people are almost touching each other to get by. Most of it looks like abandoned merchandise sitting in carts and dollies.

Naturally, they removed the CFL bulb recycling bin because it was "taking up too much space."

I really don't know what they are trying to accomplish here.

Your chances of getting the virus from someone passing you closer than six feet are infinitesimal because of the virus load needed. Now if your standing next to the infected person for five minutes the odds go up substantially.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

True that. We've been quarantined for 2 months and my state saw 374 additional cases since yesterday.

We've gone from 97 cases confirmed positive on March 16 to 72,025 as of today. Our state went into mandatory closures of schools on March 9th, and mandatory closures of non-essential businesses on March 16th. 1754 new cases today.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

More of the herd doesn’t have the virus because of the measures put into place. That delays herd immunity. New cases occur but not at close to rate they would without the measures in place. Anything that slows the spread of the virus slows herd immunity.

There doesn't seem to be ANYTHING slow about this. See my previous comment:

We've gone from 97 cases confirmed positive on March 16 to 72,025 as of today. Our state went into mandatory closures of schools on March 9th, and mandatory closures of non-essential businesses on March 16th. 1754 new cases today.

ETA: That doesn't count people who are asymptomatic or not sick enough to be tested. That's just confirmed positives.

 

[brianstl]

You’re splitting the difference. The point is that there are studies which show a glimpse in time but do not follow up. So while there are a good number of asymptomatic, we don’t know how many of those people develop symptoms in a week. It’s still probably a good number, but not as high as people think.

People that have the antibodies are not asymptotic. They may have been at one time, but they no longer have COVID 19 or were lucky enough to have an immune system that stopped them from developing COVID 19 despite viral load exposure. They aren’t going to be in worse shape a few weeks later.

 

[Figgy1]

I know exactly when the parks will open

Spoiler: Date CMs will be called back

the day Disney's legal team clears it

 

[WDWTrojan]

Interview with longtime (retired) EVP of WDW Operations, Lee Cockerell:

Former Disney executive Lee Cockerell on reopening theme parks

Former Disney executive Lee Cockerell joins "Squawk Alley" to discuss how the company might keep guests safe as it plans to reopen parks.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Tom P.]

Looks, there are ONLY two possibilities here:

1. The health care system has been able to keep up and not be overwhelmed because of the extreme measures we, as a society, have taken to lock down.

2. The threat of the health care system was overblown and would not have happened even if we had continued with normal life.

I don't think anyone can say which one it is with 100% certainty, but my money is on door # 1 as being accurate. Regardless, though, you can't use positive results as evidence for the fact that the lockdown wasn't needed. It could just as easily be evidence for how effective the lockdown has been.

I suspect in about three weeks we will start to see actual numbers that tell us the truth. My question is whether there will be the political and societal will to go back into more extreme lockdown if the numbers start to dramatically spike. I suspect it would have been far easier to convince people that another four weeks was necessary than it will be to remove restrictions and then try to convince people they need to go back in place again.

 

[The Mom]

The thread is about estimates for reopening - not about whether we should have done things differently, and speculations about what will happen when things start to open up. Even the experts can't agree, so there is no point about arguing for pages about it here.

 

[Tom P.]

The thread is about estimates for reopening - not about whether we should have done things differently, and speculations about what will happen when things start to open up. Even the experts can't agree, so there is no point about arguing for pages about it here.

How exactly can you discuss estimates for reopening Walt Disney World without having a discussion about how things have gone so far with COVID-19 and what will happen when things start to open up? My basic theory is that we are going to see a spike in cases because of our reopening efforts generally, which will likely force many businesses, including WDW, to delay their reopening plans.

 

[easyrowrdw]

You are missing the point. The goal was to give it a vacation so we could undertake some fundamental changes, whether it be improved testing or capacity, while not filling up emergency rooms. What’s the difference between filling up emergency rooms in June vs April? Nothing. The minute we reopen things without continued mitigation we are literally right back to where we were in March.

I think we are in a much better place now than March. PPE supply has been greatly increased. Healthcare professionals have much clearer plans for how to treat COVID patients and protect themselves. New techniques and therapies have been identified that appear to help reduce mortality rates and (I believe) time in the hospital. People have a better understanding of ways to reduce their own risk of infection and transmission. Etc.

 

[WDWTrojan]

I think we are in a much better place now than March. PPE supply has been greatly increased. Healthcare professionals have much clearer plans for how to treat COVID patients and protect themselves. New techniques and therapies have been identified that appear to help reduce mortality rates and (I believe) time in the hospital. People have a better understanding of ways to reduce their own risk of infection and transmission. Etc.

100% but we are not at a place where it is just safe to open things up without continuing much mitigation. Many hospitals in rural areas are wholly unprepared, any therapeutic drugs are still a ways away from being made at scale, etc.

 

[Tom P.]

100% but we are not at a place where it is just safe to open things up without continuing much mitigation. Many hospitals in rural areas are wholly unprepared, any therapeutic drugs are still a ways away from being made at scale, etc.

Define "without continuing much mitigation." Businesses are opening, but they are opening at a fraction of the capacity they had before. People are being encouraged or mandated to wear masks. Employees are having temperatures taken each day. Social distancing is being emphasized. Telework is still being widely utilized. People are being much more cognizant of the need for regular hand washing and use of hand sanitizer. Etc.

When you look at the measures that Walt Disney World has discussed, for example, it feels to me like there will be a great deal of mitigation efforts ongoing. Whether those are enough or not remains to be seen. But I don't see any evidence of just opening the floodgates, returning to normal, and not trying to mitigate the spread.

 

[easyrowrdw]

100% but we are not at a place where it is just safe to open things up without continuing much mitigation. Many hospitals in rural areas are wholly unprepared, any therapeutic drugs are still a ways away from being made at scale, etc.

That's the sticking point, I think. How much?

One thing that's been encouraging for me is the use of common drugs and techniques (e.g., blood thinners, oxygen, specific breathing positions) in helping improve outcomes. I just wish Disney could get me a cool mask before July.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Define "without continuing much mitigation." Businesses are opening, but they are opening at a fraction of the capacity they had before. People are being encouraged or mandated to wear masks. Employees are having temperatures taken each day. Social distancing is being emphasized. Telework is still being widely utilized. People are being much more cognizant of the need for regular hand washing and use of hand sanitizer. Etc.

When you look at the measures that Walt Disney World has discussed, for example, it feels to me like there will be a great deal of mitigation efforts ongoing. Whether those are enough or not remains to be seen. But I don't see any evidence of just opening the floodgates, returning to normal, and not trying to mitigate the spread.

Right, WDW is a whole different animal to a small restaurant opening up at 25% capacity. Shanghai will be an interest testing case but the culture there is so completely different, along with their contact tracing element which makes it much safer.

 

[HansGruber]

How exactly can you discuss estimates for reopening Walt Disney World without having a discussion about how things have gone so far with COVID-19 and what will happen when things start to open up? My basic theory is that we are going to see a spike in cases because of our reopening efforts generally, which will likely force many businesses, including WDW, to delay their reopening plans.

If I could snap my fingers and Covid disappears tomorrow, Disney would be open ASAP. It's all tied together.
We are all simply trying to predict the future based on the past and right now, that's all any of us can do.

Florida deemed WWE an "essential business". Even if authorities said Disney could open tomorrow, the business wouldn't be naive enough to do so.

 

[The Mom]

How exactly can you discuss estimates for reopening Walt Disney World without having a discussion about how things have gone so far with COVID-19 and what will happen when things start to open up? My basic theory is that we are going to see a spike in cases because of our reopening efforts generally, which will likely force many businesses, including WDW, to delay their reopening plans.

Because you're just theorizing - as are people who are arguing with you. And it's getting old and irritating. Plus, there is already a Coronavirus and WDW thread, along with a couple more where people are arguing the same things. - we don't need a dozen.

These thread get political - and there is still another thread in Political and Social Issues where you can argue - and even get political!