WDW Reopening Estimates

[seascape]

Your reasoning is sound, but I think it's too early to say Disney is playing it close to the vest relative to their counterparts. We are just now seeing some beaches reopen, and some zoos over the next few weeks. But no theme parks or water parks are open in the US, that I know of.

Now, if Universal and Sea World and Six Flags are all open while WDW remains closed, then we can say for sure that Disney is playing it safe.

Or it could be the companies that open up don't care about their customers but only money. However, I believe each company will base their decisions based upon the facts and their belief of what is best for their employees and customers.

 

[Jrb1979]

But so many seem to be failing to realize that we need to KEEP the curve flattened.

I don't think its so much moving the goal posts to reopen the economy. People are showing by their actions they can't follow social distancing now.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I don't think its so much moving the goal posts to reopen the economy. People are showing by their actions they can't follow social distancing now.

They absolutely are. And we'll all suffer for it.

 

[Epcotbob]

But so many seem to be failing to realize that we need to KEEP the curve flattened.

Perhaps, but that's a new discussion and was not part of the original rationale advertised for the shelter in place orders. There was always an expectation that the curve would spike up a bit again after the shelter in place orders ended, but it would at least flatten it out and buy time so as not to "over-run" medical facilities....so, as the article so clearly explains, mission accomplished. Most of the temp hospitals that were set up have closed up shop....some never seeing *any* Covid-19 patients.

 

[Jrb1979]

Perhaps, but that's a new discussion and was not part of the original rationale advertised for the shelter in place orders. There was always an expectation that the curve would spike up a bit again after the shelter in place orders ended, but it would at least flatten it out and buy time so as not to "over-run" medical facilities....so, as the article so clearly explains, mission accomplished. Most of the temp hospitals that were set up have closed up shop....some never seeing *any* Covid-19 patients.

Stay at home doesn't equal social distancing. That's why I think some places and Canada are don't want to rush things. If people could just stay 6 ft apart and not flock to places when they open we could reopen things now.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

A bad sign for WDW?

Not necessarily. DL Paris with reduced capacity is probably not as feasible as WDW with reduced capacity. Just a hunch but I think this decision has less to do with COVID and more to do with profitability.

 

[Daniel Brown]

They absolutely are. And we'll all suffer for it.

We're suffering not opening it too.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

We're suffering not opening it too.

Yes, but what I'm referring to is a worse second wave. People are so eager to get back to the "old normal" that they're forgetting that we can't let our guard down until we have, at the very least, several effective and readily available therapeutics.

 

[Jrb1979]

What I don't understand is Disney is so hush hush about any plans of reopening. Cedar Fair in their earnings report today said they don't have any plans to open any parks in the near term. Six Flags put their plans out plus adding in the reservation system to get into the parks. San Diego parks put out their plans for social distancing in parks. Then you have Disney just canceling bookings week by week and not say anything.

 

[DisneyWildcat]

This topic has turned into comedy hour. I didn't realize so many on here are infectious disease experts. What happened to just giving reopening estimates.

 

[Getachew]

What I don't understand is Disney is so hush hush about any plans of reopening. Cedar Fair in their earnings report today said they don't have any plans to open any parks in the near term. Six Flags put their plans out plus adding in the reservation system to get into the parks. San Diego parks put out their plans for social distancing in parks. Then you have Disney just canceling bookings week by week and not say anything.

I suspect it's because Disney has several "plans" and or best case scenario's. The best case being June 1st, and worst case being...maybe fall? As of now they are probably watching and seeing how things go in the first few weeks of phase 1 re-opening.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Oops, posted in the wrong thread. Just wanted to say that my company is aiming for a late 4th Q or 2021 return. We have offices nationwide. Make of it what you will.

 

[Lexxweb]

I suspect it's because Disney has several "plans" and or best case scenario's. The best case being June 1st, and worst case being...maybe fall? As of now they are probably watching and seeing how things go in the first few weeks of phase 1 re-opening.

I agree with this.
If the decision were up to me today, I'd be watching two things.
1) The Phase 1 Economy Reopening in FL -- how is that having an impact, what do the trends look like
2) How does Shanghai Disneyland operate once guests are added to the mix on May 11th, that'll give a lot of indications on how to potentially operate the domestic parks

I wouldn't announce any date or plans until at least a Phase 2 opening in Florida and a minimum of 2 weeks of monitoring the operation of Shanghai Disneyland; ensuring that the measures taken towards guest and Cast Member safety in Shanghai are proven to be successful.

It might not even be all parks and resorts, it could just be MK, or select experiences at the other parks (Rise / Pandora / etc) and all operate off a reservation system.

Should the Shanghai operation not work so well, then we'll have more information and a better way to judge how to open the other parks than we've had this entire time.

It'll be very interesting to watch this unfold. This whole experience is new for all.

 

[HansGruber]

The idea of socially distancing until there is a vaccine was not discussed at all until more recently, but that has always been completely unrealistic from an economical point of view.

More recently? I'm not a doctor and even I understand the basics of virology. Vaccines, antivirals or herd immunity are the only ways out of this if we want to eliminate social distancing measures. The nightly news shouldn't have to tell you this.

We are social distancing until one of those three things happens, economic viability or not.

 

[HansGruber]

Today I was about abandon my cart and leave our local Walmart. They have stickers all over the store floor showing what 6ft of distance is, encouraging masks, and they even have stickers on the floor for one-way cart and foot traffic in aisles. They even put DO NOT ENTER signs at the exit side of each one-way aisle. What is the reality? Half or more customers don't have masks, people are all up in your space taking stuff from shelves when you are trying to select items. They all come in whatever side of the aisle they want. If you wait 6ft back from a shelf while someone else selects an item, two others walk around you and go up to the same shelf...only to be followed by more until you give up and move to another area and wait to come back. People are picking their nose, rubbing their face/nose/eyes, and coughing without covering their mouth. It's like a germaphobe's nightmare! Why do people think that everyone is all of a sudden going to be totally different than the gross, disrespectful, selfish morons that make up a large segment of society?

My local Home Depot, which is massive, is only letting a certain number of people in at a time. They have these stupid 6 ft markers all over the floor. I go to the lumber section and there is crap EVERYWHERE in the aisles, effectively narrowing the aisle to where people are almost touching each other to get by. Most of it looks like abandoned merchandise sitting in carts and dollies.

Naturally, they removed the CFL bulb recycling bin because it was "taking up too much space."

I really don't know what they are trying to accomplish here.

 

[Jrb1979]

My local Home Depot, which is massive, is only letting a certain number of people in at a time. They have these stupid 6 ft markers all over the floor. I go to the lumber section and there is crap EVERYWHERE in the aisles, effectively narrowing the aisle to where people are almost touching each other to get by. Most of it looks like abandoned merchandise sitting in carts and dollies.

Naturally, they removed the CFL bulb recycling bin because it was "taking up too much space."

I really don't know what they are trying to accomplish here.

At our liquor store where I live they tell people when they enter to not pass people in order to keep the 6 ft distancing in place. The reason for the 6ft markers is to reinforce it cause people still don't get it.

 

[ChrisRobin124]

More recently? I'm not a doctor and even I understand the basics of virology. Vaccines, antivirals or herd immunity are the only ways out of this if we want to eliminate social distancing measures. The nightly news shouldn't have to tell you this.

We are social distancing until one of those three things happens, economic viability or not.

I would agree. I would add virus mutation into something less contagious/lethal.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I would agree. I would add virus mutation into something less contagious/lethal.

Or best case, mutation to the point where it can no longer infect humans.

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

Oops, posted in the wrong thread. Just wanted to say that my company is aiming for a late 4th Q or 2021 return. We have offices nationwide. Make of it what you will.

Can your company keep some semblance of regular operations with employees working from home another 7-8 months? Disney may not be able to afford to do that with its parks, even with great Disney+ subscription numbers.

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

Or it could be the companies that open up don't care about their customers but only money. However, I believe each company will base their decisions based upon the facts and their belief of what is best for their employees and customers.

Of course money is the biggest concern. But the public relations risk of opening first, even if it turns out to be a safe and healthy decision, is something that could cost them money in the long run. Some will applaud it, some will decry it.. would the positives outweigh the negatives?