WDW Reopening Estimates

[havoc315]

I’ll both admit and agree that I’m not clearly versed in the applicable statutes at both the state and federal level, but I don’t see a world where people can sue employers, businesses, etc. over getting infected with the corona virus.

Furthermore, if Disney expects any payout from business disruption insurance, they will need Congress to act.

I've personally been involved in lawsuits over other viral infections, for failing to take adequate infection prevention measures.
The grounds for Covid liability are even greater, where you have governments, public and private health individuals, all making recommendations.

 

[havoc315]

We are almost losing 3,000 people/day now. Yet your gut tells you it will just vanish, even when we open things up and everyone can come in contact with everyone else. Okay.



What? Even if you believe the virus is 10x as more widespread as it is, that's still only about 10M people who have it. There's zero evidence "most Americans" have had it. It's just the opposite. Death rates are going up.

New York has done the most testing, by far, in the United States. About 85% of antibody tests have been negative across the state, about 73% of coronavirus tests have been negative. So in the hardest hit state, you can surmise that 15-20% have been infected. Far far more than the official numbers, but far less less than "most" people.

 

[havoc315]

Look, I’m not standing on the corner claiming this is the gospel. That being said, I’m betting that once antibody tests are completed, far more people have had and recovered from this than realized.

Results of antibody testing, as per your request:

Amid Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic, Governor Cuomo Announces Results of Completed Antibody Testing Study of 15,000 People Showing 12.3 Percent of Population Has COVID-19 Antibodies

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Governor Cuomo announced the results of the state's completed antibody testing study showing 12.3 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies.

www.governor.ny.gov

 

[hopemax]

Look, I’m not standing on the corner claiming this is the gospel. That being said, I’m betting that once antibody tests are completed, far more people have had and recovered from this than realized.

None of them have come anywhere near the herd immunity thresh hold so far. Did you see the MLB organization one that was done by the same person who did the Santa Clara study? .7%! Less than 1% in case you missed the period. Yes, the Doctor was surprised too.

Study shows low rate of virus antibodies in MLB

MLB employees tested positive for coronavirus antibodies in a study run by Stanford University at a rate much lower than other studies done in California.

www.espn.com

That one didn't make the news as loudly as the first study did though. Even NYC which has the highest number of positives is only at about 25%. We need to get to 60%, and even reaching that number doesn't stop the wave that "is in progress," only future waves, which is why they think 70 or 80% will end up getting sick. Also, it should be obvious but...the 60% has to be distributed nationwide. NYC could be at 100% and while it puts the thumb on the scale for "national immunity," it won't help stop the spread in a community that is only at 5%.

 

[UNCgolf]

None of them have come anywhere near the herd immunity thresh hold so far. Did you see the MLB organization one that was done by the same person who did the Santa Clara study? .7%! Less than 1% in case you missed the period. Yes, the Doctor was surprised too.

Study shows low rate of virus antibodies in MLB

MLB employees tested positive for coronavirus antibodies in a study run by Stanford University at a rate much lower than other studies done in California.

www.espn.com

That one didn't make the news as loudly as the first study did though. Even NYC which has the highest number of positives is only at about 25%. We need to get to 60%, and even reaching that number doesn't stop the wave that "is in progress," only future waves, which is why they think 70 or 80% will end up getting sick. Also, it should be obvious but...the 60% has to be distributed nationwide. NYC could be at 100% and while it puts the thumb on the scale for "national immunity," it won't help stop the spread in a community that is only at 5%.

I don't think the MLB study is very useful. MLB players and team employees are much wealthier than the average person, and thus it's incredibly easy for them to stay out of any public areas (not that we know what exactly they've done or where they've been).

It makes sense that the ultra wealthy (and the MLB minimum salary is over $550k, so they're all in the top 1%) would have a much lower infection rate than the general population.

 

[hopemax]

I don't think the MLB study is very useful. MLB players and team employees are much wealthier than the average person, and thus it's incredibly easy for them to stay out of any public areas (not that we know what exactly they've done or where they've been).

It makes sense that the ultra wealthy (and the MLB minimum salary is over $550k, so they're all in the top 1%) would have a much lower infection rate than the general population.

But the person I responded to, believes that we are so close to herd immunity that we don't need restrictions. So sure .7 vs 10% or even .7 vs 20%, but do you believe the disparity would be .7 vs 50 or 60%?

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

But the person I responded to, believes that we are so close to herd immunity that we don't need restrictions. So sure .7 vs 10% or even .7 vs 20%, but do you believe the disparity would be .7 vs 50 or 60%?

I do not believe the nation has achieved herd immunity, but I believe certain subsets of the nation have achieved immunity or have inherent gene immunity.

 

[SaveDinosaur]

Right now Paris ballpark is after Bastille day. But nothing’s certain at the moment. Not even WDWs opening month.

Speaking of DLP any news of the new WDSP? Do you know if the Cars ride is going to open this year?

 

[ToTBellHop]

I do not believe the nation has achieved herd immunity, but I believe certain subsets of the nation have achieved immunity or have inherent gene immunity.

You know, believing something doesn’t make it true. That’s the funny thing about facts.

 

[UNCgolf]

But the person I responded to, believes that we are so close to herd immunity that we don't need restrictions. So sure .7 vs 10% or even .7 vs 20%, but do you believe the disparity would be .7 vs 50 or 60%?

No, definitely not. I don't agree that we're that close to herd immunity; there's no evidence of it.

I just don't think that particular study was useful.

 

[duder]

I've seen CNN and other outlets reporting that Disney is accepting reservations for July, and taking that to mean they are possibly re-opening.

Am I crazy, but didnt they just roll the earliest one could book to July, not 'open' reservations? Seems like some news outlets misinterpret the meaning behind the July bookings

 

[surfsupdon]

I've seen CNN and other outlets reporting that Disney is accepting reservations for July, and taking that to mean they are possibly re-opening.

Am I crazy, but didnt they just roll the earliest one could book to July, not 'open' reservations? Seems like some news outlets misinterpret the meaning behind the July bookings

Yes. The media is horrible at reporting facts. Case in point.

 

[twebber55]

It’s not scripture, but there is some research going into it:

Coronavirus Outbreak May Have Started as Early as September, Scientists Say

The outbreak also may not have started in Wuhan, geneticist Peter Forster said.

www.newsweek.com

certainly its been here for several months now and probably millions have had it
its interesting that flu deaths were down this year
who know s how many have already have it probably safe to say several million

 

[OrlandoRising]

That's not how science works.

As someone who has been knee deep in health misinformation these past few months, it's really encouraging seeing so many people on here quickly debunking false and misleading claims. It may not convince the original poster that they're wrong, but it may get through to others by not letting misinformation go unchallenged.

 

[twebber55]

But the person I responded to, believes that we are so close to herd immunity that we don't need restrictions. So sure .7 vs 10% or even .7 vs 20%, but do you believe the disparity would be .7 vs 50 or 60%?

the whole herd immunity thing is quite interesting as is how Sweden has dealt with the virus
will be interested in how they are doing over the next month or so

 

[mhaftman7]

We are almost losing 3,000 people/day now. Yet your gut tells you it will just vanish, even when we open things up and everyone can come in contact with everyone else. Okay.



What? Even if you believe the virus is 10x as more widespread as it is, that's still only about 10M people who have it. There's zero evidence "most Americans" have had it. It's just the opposite. Death rates are going up.

Not to get too far off topic, but I agree a lot more undocumented cases have occurred than we know about. There were a lot of people around where I live in December that were really sick for like two weeks with pretty much all the symptoms and no one thought anything of it. None of us were tested for it so who knows?

PLUS this is not the first coronavirus, just a new strain. So, in theory, wouldn’t anyone who had a previous iteration test positive for it?

 

[mhaftman7]

Somewhere between 5-10% of Americans have had the virus by now, still leaving 90%+ open to infection.

Why do people think throwing baseless facts make it true? As of 2019, there were 328.2M people in the US. As of May 12, 2020, the CDC has 1.3M TOTAL cases in the US. Only 0.3% of people have been confirmed to have had. That number is undoubtedly wrong due the number of people actually tested. If you look at the CDC graphic, all the highly effected areas follow your major media markets due to proximity. Why is that? Because people want to do whatever they want to do. Only go out for essentials and wash your hands!

 

[OrlandoRising]

PLUS this is not the first coronavirus, just a new strain. So, in theory, wouldn’t anyone who had a previous iteration test positive for it?

No test is going to be 100% accurate, but no, that's not a widespread issue with the tests for active infections. It IS a concern with false positives on antibody tests, many of which have not been approved by the FDA.

 

[cjkeating]

I understand they're in different countries in different stages of the pandemic, but still.

And I think you just summed up why Europa can open in May and DLP looks like it is heading for a July opening.

 

[marni1971]

Speaking of DLP any news of the new WDSP? Do you know if the Cars ride is going to open this year?

New WDSP Cars ride?