WDW Reopening Estimates

[marni1971]

That's what I've seen as well but if Europa can open with little issues, I can see Disney trying to work political pressure on the Paris Prefecture/French government to let them open early. It's hard to have your biggest European competitor (and actually a higher ranked theme park from my understanding - maybe @marni1971 can weigh in on this as I'm not well versed on the Europa/Efteling/DLP debate) open and let your park just sit idle. I understand they're in different countries in different stages of the pandemic, but still.



That is very interesting to say the least.

Right now Paris ballpark is after Bastille day. But nothing’s certain at the moment. Not even WDWs opening month.

 

[DisneyCane]

Congress has limited jurisdiction here, it's more a state issue. Whether the state of Florida will grant liability.. they haven't yet. And it's not something that's easy to do retroactively. In other words, if Disney opens BEFORE such an immunity statute is passed, then it wouldn't necessarily shield Disney. And critically, any "absolute" liability would likely be a violation of Florida's state constitution, though I fully admit I'm not well versed in Florida state law.
Typically, when immunity is given, it's given with conditions attached and alternative remedies. For example, an employee can't sue an employer for a work-place injury BUT they can pursue remedy through the worker's compensation system, which still makes the employer pay.

Just about every word of the below is wrong. Congress can do what it likes to shield public accommodations from liability, it can do so retroactively, as can Florida, and there aren’t typically conditions. The 911 Act cited by another is a good example. Limited airline liability to the extent of their insurance coverage.

It is a very complex issue legally. For sure, the State of Florida can limit liability. Any suit against Disney for an incident at WDW would be brought in State court (doesn't matter if it is COVID related or a slip and fall). If the Federal Government did it they would have to figure out a way to make it apply under regulating interstate commerce.

The airline issue is different as airlines are regulated under federal law by the FAA. A State can't suspend a pilot's license or ban an airline from operating in their airspace or at their airports. Contrast that with a driver's license where only the state that issued it can suspend it. The State of Florida regulates WDW's operation through state law and state agencies.

My gut says this type of protection for WDW would have to be done on a state level.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

It should come down to reasonable precautions. I'm opposed to blanket indemnity, but I believe that a business should merely have to demonstrate that it followed the applicable guidelines for their locality and type of establishment. We shouldn't be letting companies off the hook for deliberately endangering their employees and/or customers (i.e. failing to provide required protective gear or forcing sick employees to come back to work), but we also shouldn't let them be held at fault for accidental exposure or frivolous lawsuits.

I don’t agree, but that’s because I believe most Americans have had the virus in some form by now. So to both prove and say you caught COVID19 from a lack of PPE from work, vacation, etc. is a nonstarter for me.

 

[WDWTrojan]

Yep, this is why I think the re-opening of the economy (and parks) will progress quickly once underway and we will pretty much be back to fairly normal life activities by the end of the summer (except for the economic ramifications).

I also think the doomsday predictions of a continual resurgence of the virus and everything shutting back down again will not materialize and Covid-19 will fade from the limelight by fall.

So there, I said it. But hey, this is a forum for predictions....right?

We are almost losing 3,000 people/day now. Yet your gut tells you it will just vanish, even when we open things up and everyone can come in contact with everyone else. Okay.

I don’t agree, but that’s because I believe most Americans have had the virus in some form by now. So to both prove and say you caught COVID19 from a lack of PPE from work, vacation, etc. is a nonstarter for me.

What? Even if you believe the virus is 10x as more widespread as it is, that's still only about 10M people who have it. There's zero evidence "most Americans" have had it. It's just the opposite. Death rates are going up.

 

[themarchhare]

There won’t be any lawsuits...Congress and other legislative bodies will waive any liability by law. After 9/11, no one could sue the airlines by law.

I wouldn't make that assumption, to be honest. Huge difference between the two situations.

I don’t agree, but that’s because I believe most Americans have had the virus in some form by now.

I'd love to see some sort of evidence supporting anything even close to that claim - it would be great news!

 

[Horizons '83]

I don’t agree, but that’s because I believe most Americans have had the virus in some form by now. So to both prove and say you caught COVID19 from a lack of PPE from work, vacation, etc. is a nonstarter for me.

hmmm... not buying that

 

[jpeden]

I wouldn't make that assumption, to be honest. Huge difference between the two situations.



I'd love to see some sort of evidence supporting anything even close to that claim - it would be great news!

hmmm... not buying that

I don’t think most have had it, but I think many more have been exposed than we realize based on anecdotal evidence on how many people were negative for flu this season and that countries and states are starting to report COVID deaths retroactively to before they thought they had community spread (France, California).

 

[Horizons '83]

Oh I have no doubts hundreds of thousands more most likely had it or have it now and don't know they do but to say most american (330 Million plus) is just flat wrong.

 

[Epcotbob]

We are almost losing 3,000 people/day now. Yet your gut tells you it will just vanish, even when we open things up and everyone can come in contact with everyone else. Okay.

Not vanish, just deemed "manageable" enough so as to not reverse course on the re-opening.

 

[Herdman]

3,000 per day is no longer accurate per reputable stats on sites like worldometers.info

May 7th - 2,129
May 8th - 1,687
May 9th - 1,422
May 10th - 750
May 11th - 1,008

Now, we'll see what happens as more states open up, but the mitigation has worked in slowing deaths down to this point.

 

[Higginbotham587]

Sorry but this is just wrong. Congress’s power to regulate interstate commerce and its power to preempt state liability law mean it can totally immunize Disney. Of course it can. The 911 act has nothing to do with the FAA. It had to do with protecting the airlines from ruinous state law negligence suits. State law.

It is a very complex issue legally. For sure, the State of Florida can limit liability. Any suit against Disney for an incident at WDW would be brought in State court (doesn't matter if it is COVID related or a slip and fall). If the Federal Government did it they would have to figure out a way to make it apply under regulating interstate commerce.

The airline issue is different as airlines are regulated under federal law by the FAA. A State can't suspend a pilot's license or ban an airline from operating in their airspace or at their airports. Contrast that with a driver's license where only the state that issued it can suspend it. The State of Florida regulates WDW's operation through state law and state agencies.

My gut says this type of protection for WDW would have to be done on a state level.

 

[raymusiccity]

We are almost losing 3,000 people/day now. Yet your gut tells you it will just vanish, even when we open things up and everyone can come in contact with everyone else. Okay.



What? Even if you believe the virus is 10x as more widespread as it is, that's still only about 10M people who have it. There's zero evidence "most Americans" have had it. It's just the opposite. Death rates are going up.

You can make statistics reflect just about anything. Are people dying 'with Covid19', or 'from Covid19' ?
A friend stated her grandmother (already in hospice care) died from Covid19......at the ripe old age of 102. Terminally ill patient's are contracting the virus and succumbing to complications. Hospitals are paid more for each Covid patient, as well as approximately $35,000 more if the poor soul is placed on a ventilator. When all is said and done, I'm betting this will be comparable to the 'swine flu epidemic' .

 

[WDWTrojan]

I don’t agree, but that’s because I believe most Americans have had the virus in some form by now. So to both prove and say you caught COVID19 from a lack of PPE from work, vacation, etc. is a nonstarter for me.

You can make statistics reflect just about anything. Are people dying 'with Covid19', or 'from Covid19' ?
A friend stated her grandmother (already in hospice care) died from Covid19......at the ripe old age of 102. Terminally ill patient's are contracting the virus and succumbing to complications. Hospitals are paid more for each Covid patient, as well as approximately $35,000 more if the poor soul is placed on a ventilator. When all is said and done, I'm betting this will be comparable to the 'swine flu epidemic' .

Sorry but this has been debunked time and time again. The CDC has clear and concise guidelines of when someone dies from COVID or not and it must be a contributing factor. If the 102 year old grandmother you speak of got hit by a car, she’d die from the car accident not from whatever conditions she had prior. Same here.

Please stop spreading false rumors and conspiracy theories.

Here is a great, well-sourced argument that breaks this down:

Social Media Posts Make Baseless Claim on COVID-19 Death Toll - FactCheck.org

Viral posts wrongly suggest that the COVID-19 death toll is exaggerated because "the state" has instructed that "anyone who didnt die by a gun shot wound or car accident" be listed as a coronavirus victim. Experts say there is no such default classification -- and that the U.S. death count is...

www.factcheck.org

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

I dont know what, if anything, but I was just alerted (DVC - BLT - 6/7-6/14) to begin Check-In and finish my Magic Band order that I was unable to do this 2 days ago........not sure what this means, but thought I would mention it to the group......

Let us know if the magic bands actually show up.

 

[Rescue Ranger]

My magic bands were cancelled and refunded. This was for our upcoming August/September vacation. However, reservation was not.

I'll give it about another month to make a decision but I think I will just cancel once again and wait until next spring. I'm not going to spend all this money on a trip filled with limitations. I'd rather wait, as anxious as I am to return, for when things are back to normal. Or at least as close to normal as it can get.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

I wouldn't make that assumption, to be honest. Huge difference between the two situations.



I'd love to see some sort of evidence supporting anything even close to that claim - it would be great news!

It’s not scripture, but there is some research going into it:

Coronavirus Outbreak May Have Started as Early as September, Scientists Say

The outbreak also may not have started in Wuhan, geneticist Peter Forster said.

www.newsweek.com

 

[havoc315]

I don’t agree, but that’s because I believe most Americans have had the virus in some form by now. So to both prove and say you caught COVID19 from a lack of PPE from work, vacation, etc. is a nonstarter for me.

Somewhere between 5-10% of Americans have had the virus by now, still leaving 90%+ open to infection.

 

[hopemax]

It’s not scripture, but there is some research going into it:

Coronavirus Outbreak May Have Started as Early as September, Scientists Say

The outbreak also may not have started in Wuhan, geneticist Peter Forster said.

www.newsweek.com

Repeating what I said when people were talking about this before

"Based on the data Forster and his colleagues have collected, the coronavirus outbreak appears to have started between September 13 and December 7. "This assumes a constant mutation rate, which is admittedly unlikely to be the case, and the time estimate could therefore be wrong," he told Newsweek. "But it is the best assumption we can make at the moment, pending analysis of further patient samples stored in hospitals during 2019."

Nothing here contradicts the evidence presented so far that this started in November. The "range" may mathematically put the start in September, but all the epidemiological evidence places it in November.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

Repeating what I said when people were talking about this before

"Based on the data Forster and his colleagues have collected, the coronavirus outbreak appears to have started between September 13 and December 7. "This assumes a constant mutation rate, which is admittedly unlikely to be the case, and the time estimate could therefore be wrong," he told Newsweek. "But it is the best assumption we can make at the moment, pending analysis of further patient samples stored in hospitals during 2019."

Nothing here contradicts the evidence presented so far that this started in November. The "range" may mathematically put the start in September, but all the epidemiological evidence places it in November.

Look, I’m not standing on the corner claiming this is the gospel. That being said, I’m betting that once antibody tests are completed, far more people have had and recovered from this than realized.

 

[havoc315]

Just about every word of the below is wrong. Congress can do what it likes to shield public accommodations from liability, it can do so retroactively, as can Florida, and there aren’t typically conditions. The 911 Act cited by another is a good example. Limited airline liability to the extent of their insurance coverage.

Wow..... so you mean me and the other lawyers working on tons of liability cases are doing it all wrong?!??

I should have you file Amicus briefs in my pending lawsuits.

And no..... Congress has extremely little authority to shield against state lawsuits. And no, it's not so easy to give retroactive immunity..

In fact, the airlines paid hundreds of millions in lawsuits over 9/11..

Airline defendants to pay $95 million in 9/11 settlement

Insurers for American Airlines, United Airlines and other aviation defendants have agreed to pay $95 million to settle claims that security lapses led planes to be hijacked in the Sept. 11 attacks.…

www.chicagotribune.com

Cantor Fitzgerald Settles 9/11 Suit Against American Airlines for $135 Million (Published 2013)

The Wall Street firm’s settlement is another step toward the end of more than a decade of litigation that followed the terrorism attacks on Sept. 11.

www.nytimes.com

Last 9/11 Family Settles Suit Over Death of Mark Bavis at Trade Center

Ten years after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, deceased victims' families and the injured have been compensated over $7 billion. Out of 2,977 victims who lost their lives as a result of the attack, the last survivor's family has settled its claims with the airline and a...

abcnews.go.com

Congress did NOT give the airlines immunity from 9/11 -- Congress had no authority to do so. What Congress did, was Congress created a compensation fund. Congress then told victims: You can get money from the fund, if you waive your right to sue the airlines.
Most of the victim families went to the fund, but many chose to go with direct lawsuits instead.