WDW Reopening Estimates

[GoofGoof]

Not true. I have reservations starting the 3rd. Hoping Martin can make some Disney magic for me. I will remember....

A valid point. I shouldn’t have said nobody. I should have said the vast majority of Disney visitors. There are some people booked in that 3 week period who would obviously be disappointed. Most would rebook later and a lot wouldn’t care 6 months or a year later.

 

[Touchdown]

We're talking about different groups of people.

Group A - Engages in high risk behavior.
Group B - Engages in normal behavior.
Group C - Locks down.

Yes, you're right, people in Group A pose a risk for Group B. But neither group poses a risk to Group C. If Group B knows and accepts the risk of mixing in public spaces with people from Group A, they should be allowed to take that risk. People who choose to be Group C can do that. We don't need to force everyone to be Group C.

Group C is not possible in most of this country. You cannot get doorstep groceries. Even people in nursing homes are in group b because the staff isn’t locked down.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Yes, it's the Times. Whatever, skip this if it goes against your religion. But apply this all to the Disney parks and voila! You see my reasoning for not going back any time soon after they reopen.

Poll Shows One Hurdle to Reopening Broadway: Fear of Jerks (Published 2020)

A New York Times/Siena College Research Institute poll found that theatergoers who are hesitant to return worry that the people around them won’t follow the rules.

www.nytimes.com

Waiting for the rebuttal that there are always jerks. Enjoy that bubble.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Thx for any info, but where's this coming from? Lol, so I know how to take it.

You may read any of my posts since March. The parks aren't opening in June. How long will this take to register?

 

[Disney Analyst]

Group C also ends up at risk in many circumstances. Unless they can get 100% of everything they need online. (Groceries here would be a nightmare, but I'm in the northeast.)

Group C is not possible in most of this country. You cannot get doorstep groceries. Even people in nursing homes are in group b because the staff isn’t locked down.

Great points. Most of us are forced into group B in some way shape and form, which makes group A all the more infuriating.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

A valid point. I shouldn’t have said nobody. I should have said the vast majority of Disney visitors. There are some people booked in that 3 week period who would obviously be disappointed. Most would rebook later and a lot wouldn’t care 6 months or a year later.

Yeah we had a trip in March (got moved to June and canceled) July and October. The June one wasn't a rough loss, just meh. But did you ever have a trip that all the reservations fell into place, got the free food plan, great resort with discounted rooms, every fastpass we wanted...due to a previous inconvenience we got additional multi-passes for this trip...it was/is going to be glorious.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Yes, it's the Times. Whatever, skip this if it goes against your religion. But apply this all to the Disney parks and voila! You see my reasoning for not going back any time soon after they reopen.

Poll Shows One Hurdle to Reopening Broadway: Fear of Jerks (Published 2020)

A New York Times/Siena College Research Institute poll found that theatergoers who are hesitant to return worry that the people around them won’t follow the rules.

www.nytimes.com

Waiting for the rebuttal that there are always jerks. Enjoy that bubble.

This is called selection bias.

"A New York Times/Siena College Research Institute poll found that theatergoers who are hesitant to return worry that the people around them won’t follow the rules."

"Theatergoers who are hesitant to return" is the sample. Of course "theatergoers who are hesitant to return" are worried about people around them following the rules, that's what makes them "theatergoers who are hesitant to return." It's a tautology. It could just as easily read "theatergoers who are not hesitant to return do not worry that the people around them won't follow the rules."

 

[Parker in NYC]

This is called selection bias.

"A New York Times/Siena College Research Institute poll found that theatergoers who are hesitant to return worry that the people around them won’t follow the rules."

"Theatergoers who are hesitant to return" is the sample. Of course "theatergoers who are hesitant to return" are worried about people around them following the rules, that's what makes them "theatergoers who are hesitant to return." It's a tautology. It could just as easily read "theatergoers who are not hesitant to return do not worry that the people around them won't follow the rules."

Biased. New York Times. What if it were a Fox study?

 

[brianstl]

Biased. New York Times. What if it were a Fox study?

You probably should read what the poster actually posted.

 

[Parker in NYC]

You probably should read what the poster actually posted.

Judging by how well people follow the rules about cell phones, outside food, etc. this sounds, unfortunately, like a pretty reasonable concern. And mechanically, I'm just not sure how a theater would enforce something like removing a mask after the house lights dimmed.

 

[Gravydeen]

You may read any of my posts since March. The parks aren't opening in June. How long will this take to register?

Mark it down. Mid June. I guess we will see soon.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Mark it down. Mid June. I guess we will see soon.

Another bookmarked post. All set.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

This is called selection bias.

"A New York Times/Siena College Research Institute poll found that theatergoers who are hesitant to return worry that the people around them won’t follow the rules."

"Theatergoers who are hesitant to return" is the sample. Of course "theatergoers who are hesitant to return" are worried about people around them following the rules, that's what makes them "theatergoers who are hesitant to return." It's a tautology. It could just as easily read "theatergoers who are not hesitant to return do not worry that the people around them won't follow the rules."

A better poll would have been "are you hesitant to return"...not "why are you hesitant to return".

 

[brianstl]

A better poll would have been "are you hesitant to return"...not "why are you hesitant to return".

Exactly.

 

[GoofGoof]

This is called selection bias.

"A New York Times/Siena College Research Institute poll found that theatergoers who are hesitant to return worry that the people around them won’t follow the rules."

"Theatergoers who are hesitant to return" is the sample. Of course "theatergoers who are hesitant to return" are worried about people around them following the rules, that's what makes them "theatergoers who are hesitant to return." It's a tautology. It could just as easily read "theatergoers who are not hesitant to return do not worry that the people around them won't follow the rules."

Did you read the article or just the headline? It says right in there 39% of regular theater goers said they were very likely or somewhat likely to see a show if Broadway opened by Sept 1. Of the people who aren’t likely to return the number 1 reason given was a fear that safety measures put in place wouldn’t be followed. There’s no selection bias. They polled almost 800 regular theater goers in New York. They didn’t just pool people who were hesitant to return.

 

[GoofGoof]

A better poll would have been "are you hesitant to return"...not "why are you hesitant to return".

That was the exact poll. 39% said they were not hesitant to return 9/1. That number goes to 57% for January.

 

[Gravydeen]

Another bookmarked post. All set.

Great!! I was wondering how I would get credit.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Great!! I was wondering how I would get credit.

Only the honor of joining the others.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

I'm a girl. Apologies if you don't remember everything you wrote but it stuck.

Ok. Lol. Doesn't change the fact that you were a jerk to me over opening dates, when I never questioned your guesses at not being June and the comment you plucked out of the air didn't say June. Lol. Like I said, I hope you find peace soon.

And you were upset with me from weeks ago and just now chose an arbitrary opportunity to get back at me? Whoa.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Ok. Lol. Doesn't change the fact that you were a jerk to me over opening dates, when I never questioned your guesses at not being June and the comment you plucked out of the air didn't say June. Lol. Like I said, I hope you find peace soon.

You kept referring to me condescendingly as "man" so I thought I'd ed-u-ma-cate you. I hope you find... whatever.