WDW Reopening Estimates

[General Mayhem]

Absolutely none, it's just Disney trying to avoid clickbait headlines like "Massachusetts man who died of COVID-19 visited Disney World in July, records show."

I've said it before and I'll say it again even if the mods don't like it. This shutdown is not helping stop this virus, it's making things worse. Keeping the parks closed is far more detrimental to society than this stupid virus ever could be. Yall can keep shaming people like me for this but yall obviously don't live here in Orlando... We have families on the sides of the streets begging for money because they cannot work thanks to this stupid shut down. This isn't saving people.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

I think you underestimate the stupidity and absolute one-mindedness of people.

For example: the first time WDW ran 'free dining' do you know how many people showed up staying offsite (or just being a day guest) and would order a meal at a TS restaurant and then expect it to be free? Hundreds. Every day. For the entire promotion. Thats why the newer promotions are much more targeted and much more clear.

Ha nope. I tell anyone that will listen how stupid most of America is. Ha.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Virtually nobody has the ability to avoid interaction with anyone.

Perfect, I agree. So let's stop pretending and get on with our lives.

 

[wdw71fan]

It would be more the amount of people being turned away.

The word perception has been big lately.

- Perception of safety
- Perception of responsibility
- Perception of the company/brand if Magic Kingdom turns into a hotspot for COVID19

The optics matter her just as much as actual safety. Perception is key..

 

[wdw71fan]

Seems like just more speculation, but in bullet list form.

I don't speculate

 

[MyAdventureBook]

I just looked that up because you mentioned it, and yes, while its a lot of people close together, its also outdoors, and we've seen the studies that the likelyhood of outdoor non-contact transmission is near zero. So while there may be some cases from that crowd, the statistical chance of a large cluster outbreak from it is very low.

The information the public has been given just isn't making logical sense. Are we supposed to assume that any large gathering of people is now a disaster, without waiting to see what happens? It seems that is what many people are doing.

It seems that much of the news now is trending toward reports of many people testing positive, but being asymptomatic. People have been "exposed" by someone, or people have tested positive, but I have seen very few reports of new hospitalizations. This can actually be viewed as a good thing- that so many people have it, but have few to no symptoms. There was some speculation by medical professionals back in March that this would happen- that a large percentage of the population would eventually get this.

Data on the CDC's website shows that over 80% of deaths have been in those over 65, and many of the deaths under the age of 65 were in people who had underlying conditions. Therefore, if people in those categories continue to isolate (and be very careful to social distance in the times when they must go out in public), how could there even be a second wave (unless the virus mutates to become more deadly, which virology tells us it will not)? How would a lot of people hanging out at Lake of the Ozarks be a disaster, unless those people are in high-risk groups?

Places like Disney World are supposed to allow their employees who are over 65 and who have underlying conditions to avoid working for now. People who are over 65 or who have underlying conditions should avoid travelling for now (and avoid people who have traveled for 14 days). If that happens, based on what we have seen so far, wouldn't we expect to see an increase in positive cases, but a drop in hospitalizations and deaths? Shouldn't this be the goal?

Based on the information we have, that makes logical sense- and it is quite simple. Protect the vulnerable, while others return to life. But there still seems to be this deep fear that is causing us to continue to have closures, as more businesses die and more people fall into financial, mental, emotional, and physical decline.

I really don't understand it.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I just looked that up because you mentioned it, and yes, while its a lot of people close together, its also outdoors, and we've seen the studies that the likelyhood of outdoor non-contact transmission is near zero. So while there may be some cases from that crowd, the statistical chance of a large cluster outbreak from it is very low.

There are things occurring there that virtually guarantee people got infected (if there was an infected person present)...no one wearing face coverings, and prolonged exposure to many people in a small area. The people being packed so tightly together and staying that way would be the main driver of infections.

Then. Don't. Go.

Were you at Lake of the Ozarks? No? Then your risk of being negatively impacted in any way whatsoever is exactly 0.0%.

How about following a conversation before you jump to conclusions about what someone is saying?

I mentioned Lake of the Ozarks and the crowds because I think Disney wanted to see what happened at other travel destinations over the Memorial Day weekend before deciding when/how to open.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

There are things occurring there that virtually guarantee people got infected (if there was an infected person present)...no one wearing face coverings, and prolonged exposure to many people in a small area. The people being packed so tightly together and staying that way would be the main driver of infections.

How about following a conversation before you jump to conclusions about what someone is saying?

I mentioned Lake of the Ozarks and the crowds because I think Disney wanted to see what happened at other travel destinations over the Memorial Day weekend before deciding when/how to open.

I was at that bar last summer too. Lol. It's a blast.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

So I'm assuming the resorts are packed for the foreseeable future. Do we know if the full resorts alone will be more than attendance minimums will allow? Maybe that's a reason for all parks to open at the same time? If they hold more than minimums reported, then what?

 

[Getachew]

It would be more the amount of people being turned away.

could no fireworks be an issue as well?

 

[GoofGoof]

The word perception has been big lately.

- Perception of safety
- Perception of responsibility
- Perception of the company/brand if Magic Kingdom turns into a hotspot for COVID19

The optics matter her just as much as actual safety. Perception is key..

Thanks for the updates. I’ve been saying this for a while now. Disney has a reputation to worry about and their brand is focused on being family friendly and safe.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

It would be more the amount of people being turned away.

Definitely not questioning your report of their concern, but Shanghai did it by reservation only. Maybe they "play the slice" and assume Americans are dumb dumbs and will just show up with their pick up truck full of kids and 12 pack of Pabst Blue Ribbon?

 

[GoofGoof]

Definitely not questioning your report of their concern, but Shanghai did it by reservation only. Maybe they "play the slice" and assume Americans are dumb dumbs and will just show up with their pick up truck full of kids and 12 pack of Pabst Blue Ribbon?

In China when you don’t follow the rules laid out by the government or someone in authority you “disappear”. Here you end up with a viral video for your Facebook page.

They could also be worried people show up at Disney Springs and hop a bus to Poly or GF or CR and then mob the beaches for the MK fireworks. It’s not just people through the gates they have to worry about. The city of Orlando already said no fireworks on July 4th if Disney was the only game in town that could be a problem. People will look for backdoor ways in. They could open on July 4th with no fireworks but that won’t go over big either.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

In China when you don’t follow the rules laid out by the government or someone in authority you “disappear”. Here you end up with a viral video for your Facebook page.

They could also be worried people show up at Disney Springs and hop a bus to Poly or GF or CR and then mob the beaches for the MK fireworks. It’s not just people through the gates they have to worry about. The city of Orlando already said no fireworks on July 4th if Disney was the only game in town that could be a problem. People will look for backdoor ways in. They could open on July 4th with no fireworks but that won’t go over big either.

Yeah makes sense. But I would be completely ok woth no fireworks if that's the city rule. But....

 

[Touchdown]

Then. Don't. Go.

Were you at Lake of the Ozarks? No? Then your risk of being negatively impacted in any way whatsoever is exactly 0.0%.

That is categorically not true, if that line of thinking was true then everyone who never visited the Wuhan fish market wouldn’t have to worry about getting it. Gatherings like that, if they contain 1 person infected can result in hundreds of infections, that all those travelers bring home with them and then infect their community.

I know it’s very hard conceptually to imagine this but doing these activities put you at risk, your contacts at risk and the contact of your contacts. We need to limit large gatherings until we either have:

-Rapid testing and contact tracing
-A low amount of active cases of Covid
-A viable treatment for this
-A vaccine
-The virus has mutated to not be as deadly

Either of those things would work, but we don’t have any of those things currently. Times like this individuality needs to take a back seat.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

That is categorically not true, if that line of thinking was true then everyone who never visited the Wuhan fish market wouldn’t have to worry about getting it. Gatherings like that, if they contain 1 person infected can result in hundreds of infections, that all those travelers bring home with them and then infect their community.

I know it’s very hard conceptually to imagine this but doing these activities put you at risk, your contacts at risk and the contact of your contacts. We need to limit large gatherings until we either have:

-Rapid testing and contact tracing
-A low amount of active cases of Covid
-A viable treatment for this
-A vaccine
-The virus has mutated to not be as deadly

Either of those things would work, but we don’t have any of those things currently. Times like this individuality needs to take a back seat.

We're talking about different groups of people.

Group A - Engages in high risk behavior.
Group B - Engages in normal behavior.
Group C - Locks down.

Yes, you're right, people in Group A pose a risk for Group B. But neither group poses a risk to Group C. If Group B knows and accepts the risk of mixing in public spaces with people from Group A, they should be allowed to take that risk. People who choose to be Group C can do that. We don't need to force everyone to be Group C.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

We're talking about different groups of people.

Group A - Engages in high risk behavior.
Group B - Engages in normal behavior.
Group C - Locks down.

Yes, you're right, people in Group A pose a risk for Group B. But neither group poses a risk to Group C. If Group B knows and accepts the risk of mixing in public spaces with people from Group A, they should be allowed to take that risk. People who choose to be Group C can do that. We don't need to force everyone to be Group C.

Group C also ends up at risk in many circumstances. Unless they can get 100% of everything they need online. (Groceries here would be a nightmare, but I'm in the northeast.)

 

[GoofGoof]

Yeah makes sense. But I would be completely ok woth no fireworks if that's the city rule. But....

I don’t know if it’s a rule. The city said they would do virtual fireworks meaning you can stream online. As far as I know there’s no rule that you can’t do them, but there is still a ban on large group gatherings.

I see Disney’s dilemma. Look at the media today. All you see are stories about crowds at beaches, parks, anywhere that’s open. When WDW opens it’s an automatic national story. They don’t want that story to be WDW opens and look at the crowds and no social distancing. That‘s probably why they will look to wait until after a big holiday weekend to open. In the long run is it really such a big deal if they wait a few more weeks? Nobody is going to care 6 months from now if they opened 6/22 or 7/6.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

I don’t know if it’s a rule. The city said they would do virtual fireworks meaning you can stream online. As far as I know there’s no rule that you can’t do them, but there is still a ban on large group gatherings.

I see Disney’s dilemma. Look at the media today. All you see are stories about crowds at beaches, parks, anywhere that’s open. When WDW opens it’s an automatic national story. They don’t want that story to be WDW opens and look at the crowds and no social distancing. That‘s probably why they will look to wait until after a big holiday weekend to open. In the long run is it really such a big deal if they wait a few more weeks? Nobody is going to care 6 months from now if they opened 6/22 or 7/6.

Not true. I have reservations starting the 3rd. Hoping Martin can make some Disney magic for me. I will remember....

 

[GoofGoof]

First off, Yes Louisiana is still on the travel list, anyone arriving from louisiana must self isolate for 14 days.

- WDW will reopen no earlier than phase 2 in Florida, likely in the latter half of that phase
- WDW may not require masks depending on the state of affair when they reopen

and here's the biggie..

- WDW may not reopen until after the July 4th holiday because of the concern over the possibility of large crowds associated with that travel date.

Do you think the mask thing is a deal breaker? Meaning will they push the opening date until a time when masks won’t need to be required or do they have a date and plans to open then either way?