News Walt Disney World's COVID-19 reopening plans announced - July 11

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Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Florida is currently not doing well, take a look at this page on Florida’s DHS, everyone who is claiming that increased testing is leading to increased positive cases is wrong, scroll to page 2 and look at graph two, it shows essentially that Florida’s daily testing rate has been flat for two weeks, what has been causing the increased new cases is that there is a larger percent positive happening daily.

Throw on top of that Florida continues to lag 1% below the national average in testing percent of population, the change in habits due to weather (staying inside more,) the government choosing to not force social distancing and Florida could be in serious trouble come next week (New York trouble possibly.). Let’s just say I’ll stay in my Midwest bubble and enjoy my >3% positive, less then 300 cases, decreasing hospitalizations and deaths.

For those of you hanging onto to the death numbers remaining low, know that those numbers lag by 2-3 weeks so they should start increasing soon.

I can’t for the life of me see WDW opening unless these statistics improve, Florida’s cases have doubled in less then a month with most of this occurring in the last two weeks, meaning Florida is showing all the hallmarks of unchecked exponential growth. I really hope I’m wrong not because I still hold out hope of returning to WDW later this year but also because I don’t want Floridians to suffer and die.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Touchdown said:
Florida is currently not doing well, take a look at this page on Florida’s DHS, everyone who is claiming that increased testing is leading to increased positive cases is wrong, scroll to page 2 and look at graph two, it shows essentially that Florida’s daily testing rate has been flat for two weeks, what has been causing the increased new cases is that there is a larger percent positive happening daily.

Throw on top of that Florida continues to lag 1% below the national average in testing percent of population, the change in habits due to weather (staying inside more,) the government choosing to not force social distancing and Florida could be in serious trouble come next week (New York trouble possibly.). Let’s just say I’ll stay in my Midwest bubble and enjoy my >3% positive, less then 300 cases, decreasing hospitalizations and deaths.

For those of you hanging onto to the death numbers remaining low, know that those numbers lag by 2-3 weeks so they should start increasing soon.

I can’t for the life of me see WDW opening unless these statistics improve, Florida’s cases have doubled in less then a month with most of this occurring in the last two weeks, meaning Florida is showing all the hallmarks of unchecked exponential growth. I really hope I’m wrong not because I still hold out hope of returning to WDW later this year but also because I don’t want Floridians to suffer and die.
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If you followed the discussion yesterday, a lot of the increase in "cases" which is really documented cases is related to testing groups of people due to a positive test that led to contact tracing and testing of close contacts. There have been many cases in recent days where these groups tested were migrant workers and jails.

In the examples given of some of the migrant worker outbreaks, they tested positive at a crazy high rate (90% in one) but were almost all asymptomatic. Deaths are not going to lag asymptomatic cases by 2-3 weeks or 2-3 decades.

The antibody testing indicates that up to around 4% of the population of Florida has already been infected by SARS-CoV-2. That's around 860,000 people. That's over 10 times the number of documented cases. This would indicate that if the same level of testing was being done during March and April, the reported daily case numbers would have been much higher back then. However, since a huge percentage of the cases are either very mild or asymptomatic, they weren't tested. Even now, the only testing targeted at asymptomatic people that are likely infected are the close contacts of a confirmed case.

The number of daily new hospitalizations has not increased beyond what it was throughout May and is still below the peak level. Hospitalizations will not lag disease onset by much because the people that are hospitalized were tested when they sought medical attention.

The most ignored statistic in that report is that 52% of the people who have died in Florida from COVID-19 were residents of nursing homes. With the restrictions and procedures now in place at nursing homes, WDW operations will have essentially zero impact on those people. That report also shows the very low mortality rate for the younger demographics. Although the media will always report on the healthy, 37 year old who died from it, in Florida, the mortality rate in the 35-44 age group is 0.4%. That's without taking into account the number of cases that weren't discovered due to being mild or asymptomatic and not tested.

Unfortunately, sometimes healthy, young people die of other respiratory diseases as well. Back in March of 2019 my friend's daughter in her early 30's died from the flu. She was healthy and in pretty good shape, got sick, it got worse, she was in the hospital for 2 months and passed away.
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
tl:dr: The study that said hydroxychloroquine was *harmful* was retracted, however, other studies which say that hydroxycholoroquine *provides no significant benefit for CV cases* still stand.

 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
The most ignored statistic in that report is that 52% of the people who have died in Florida from COVID-19 were residents of nursing homes. With the restrictions and procedures now in place at nursing homes, WDW operations will have essentially zero impact on those people.
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Do you realize that the people who work in nursing homes are actual people? They shop at the grocery store, their kids play with other kids in the neighborhood and they are not restricted in any way from either going to WDW or interacting with people who visit/work there. You can’t just carve out cases in nursing hones and assume it’s just old, isolated and feeble people infecting other old, isolated, feeble people. Everything that happens in the community has the potential to impact nursing homes too, even with increased testing. Unless theY plan to have any workers or doctors who interact with patients isolate and quarantine.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Do you realize that the people who work in nursing homes are actual people? They shop at the grocery store, their kids play with other kids in the neighborhood and they are not restricted in any way from either going to WDW or interacting with people who visit/work there. You can’t just carve out cases in nursing hones and assume it’s just old, isolated and feeble people infecting other old, isolated, feeble people. Everything that happens in the community has the potential to impact nursing homes too, even with increased testing. Unless theY plan to have any workers or doctors who interact with patients isolate and quarantine.
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I do realize this. However, there is screening and testing of those employees as well as them wearing PPE when inside.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
I do realize this. However, there is screening and testing of those employees as well as them wearing PPE when inside.
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I don’t deny that we are all doing better with long term care facilities overall. There’s still a higher risk for infection there if/when the overall infection level in the community is increasing. I’m not saying that they should not open WDW because of that risk, but it’s one of the overall factors they should consider.
 
disneygeek90

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
I do realize this. However, there is screening and testing of those employees as well as them wearing PPE when inside.
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My mom works at a retirement home in south FL. Her place finally had access to test employees last week. Now they will be testing every two weeks regularly, but they are lucky that so far they have no reported cases after 3 months of limited testing availability.
 
R

RaveOnEd

Well-Known Member
disneygeek90 said:
My mom works at a retirement home in south FL. Her place finally had access to test employees last week. Now they will be testing every two weeks regularly, but they are lucky that so far they have no reported cases after 3 months of limited testing availability.
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My daughter works in food service at an assisted living facility here in PA, and the employees are now getting regular tests, and the residents have not had any cases, thankfully.
 
disneygeek90

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Do you realize that the people who work in nursing homes are actual people? They shop at the grocery store, their kids play with other kids in the neighborhood and they are not restricted in any way from either going to WDW or interacting with people who visit/work there. You can’t just carve out cases in nursing hones and assume it’s just old, isolated and feeble people infecting other old, isolated, feeble people. Everything that happens in the community has the potential to impact nursing homes too, even with increased testing. Unless theY plan to have any workers or doctors who interact with patients isolate and quarantine.
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And to your point- I've only seen my parents once since the shutdown. I was a bit hesitant to even visit one weekend. My absolute biggest fear would have been if I had passed it to my mom who in turn brought it into a retirement home.
 
MrPromey

MrPromey

Well-Known Member
kateem said:
I find it odd that none of the characters are wearing masks, especially Edna Mode, who appears to be speaking to mask wearing.
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Plus, it would have fixed the weird way her lips were drawn by covering them.

... Speaking of this illustrations, why is Dash running around in what appears to be a bustier and choker? :oops:


In seriousness, the thing that's off about his illustration compared to the rest would probably be fixed by changing the background color he's against so it contrasts with the color of his outfit making the true outline of his costume would be visible but it's hard to say for sure because of the way they used white to make his hair blonde which means they can't use it to fill in his face like they did with the rest of them... He's just an odd one out since his style isn't consistent with any of other examples.
 
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MrPromey

MrPromey

Well-Known Member
All of this discussion reminds me of the old quote "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

At no other time in my life, can I say that quote makes more sense for the circumstances. Depending on who is doing the talking and what they're motivations are, things are either great and improving or bad and getting worse.

One thing that can't be denied though is that reporting from multiple national news sources like this do not bode well for tourism in Florida and seem to be creating incredibly bad optics for Disney when it comes to reopening:

CNN - Coronavirus cases are spiking across the country and experts say Florida has the makings of the next epicenter


It's obvious when reading a lot of these reports that polotics are playing a major role in how information is being presented to the public (from every angle) but the news is still the news and it influences people...
 
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oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
MrPromey said:
All of this discussion reminds me of the old quote "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

At no other time in my life, can I say that quote makes more sense for the circumstances. Depending on who is doing the talking and what they're motivations are, things are either great and improving or bad and getting worse.

One thing that can't be denied though is that reporting from multiple national news sources like this do not bode well for tourisim in Florida and seem to be creating incredibly bad optics for Disney when it comes to reopening:

CNN
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I posted this in another thread

I can see the headlines now : " Amidst record coronavirus numbers, Disney soldiers on and opens park"
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
MrPromey said:
All of this discussion reminds me of the old quote "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

At no other time in my life, can I say that quote makes more sense for the circumstances. Depending on who is doing the talking and what they're motivations are, things are either great and improving or bad and getting worse.

One thing that can't be denied though is that reporting from multiple national news sources like this do not bode well for tourism in Florida and seem to be creating incredibly bad optics for Disney when it comes to reopening:

CNN - Coronavirus cases are spiking across the country and experts say Florida has the makings of the next epicenter


It's obvious when reading a lot of these reports that polotics are playing a major role in how information is being presented to the public (from every angle) but the news is still the news and it influences people...
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Here is why I don't respect opinions from "experts" and especially opinions that are spun by reporters. Here is a combination quote and paraphrase from the article (paraphrased by the author not me).

"The potential for the virus to take off there is very, very nerve-racking and could have catastrophic consequences" because of the state's aging population and the prevalence of nursing homes and retirement communities, Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, director of the division of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, told CNN on Thursday.
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This shows that the expert didn't do any real research. If they looked on the Florida department of health site, there is a report of the total number of active positive people that reside in long term care facilities updated daily. If the "expert" bothered to take 30 seconds to pull up the report they would see that during this catastrophic "spike" in cases, the number of positive nursing home residents has dropped and was at the lowest level yesterday in 30 days (the length of the chart).

It would have taken a little longer to find the slide from the press conference the other day that showed the median age of cases dropping, indicating that the median age of people testing positive (which is not the same as the number of people infected) is dropping. If there was a way (I haven't found it) to access the daily pdf report from earlier days, you'd be able to see the shift in the age groups getting documented over time.

Also, the evidence is building that something changed in who is getting tested vs. more people getting infected. The daily cases were relatively flat for a while and then jumped a few days ago to a new level but have been relatively flat in that range again. If there was an acceleration in the spread, the daily cases would be increasing daily by a significant and noticeable amount. They wouldn't stay +/- 10% from day to day. I can't be 100% confident in this assertion until a few more days of similar data (on similar testing numbers).
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Here is why I don't respect opinions from "experts" and especially opinions that are spun by reporters. Here is a combination quote and paraphrase from the article (paraphrased by the author not me).



This shows that the expert didn't do any real research. If they looked on the Florida department of health site, there is a report of the total number of active positive people that reside in long term care facilities updated daily. If the "expert" bothered to take 30 seconds to pull up the report they would see that during this catastrophic "spike" in cases, the number of positive nursing home residents has dropped and was at the lowest level yesterday in 30 days (the length of the chart).

It would have taken a little longer to find the slide from the press conference the other day that showed the median age of cases dropping, indicating that the median age of people testing positive (which is not the same as the number of people infected) is dropping. If there was a way (I haven't found it) to access the daily pdf report from earlier days, you'd be able to see the shift in the age groups getting documented over time.

Also, the evidence is building that something changed in who is getting tested vs. more people getting infected. The daily cases were relatively flat for a while and then jumped a few days ago to a new level but have been relatively flat in that range again. If there was an acceleration in the spread, the daily cases would be increasing daily by a significant and noticeable amount. They wouldn't stay +/- 10% from day to day. I can't be 100% confident in this assertion until a few more days of similar data (on similar testing numbers).
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Numbers are rising so it doesn't really matter why. Either way something should be done about instead of telling people everything is fine. Like I said before Florida doesn't have to lock it down again but they should maybe put in stricter social distancing measures. Mandatory masks and maybe drop capacity for businesses again.

That's ok just keep making excuses for cases rising.
 
O

oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
Numbers are rising so it doesn't really matter why. Either way something should be done about instead of telling people everything is fine. Like I said before Florida doesn't have to lock it down again but they should maybe put in stricter social distancing measures. Mandatory masks and maybe drop capacity for businesses again.

That's ok just keep making excuses for cases rising.
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BuT iF wE ClOsE oUr EyEs AnD PrEtEnD iTs GoNe, It WiLl Be
 

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