Which likely means in that 3 months, the vast majority are exposed, and a percentage gets ill. Or I guess masks could be really ineffective at first, and magically save everyone else.
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Walt Disney World Park Hours cut starting September 8 2020
- Thread starter durangojim
- Start date
Which likely means in that 3 months, the vast majority are exposed, and a percentage gets ill. Or I guess masks could be really ineffective at first, and magically save everyone else.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
You don’t seem to understand how percentages work...or really numbers in general.Sure, but number of tests don't seem to matter when positive test are high. Positivity is still in the 8.3% range, in the range it was back in June
Orange County is down to 5.4% positivity lowest it has been in months, since the parks have been open.
I would try to explain why the trends are good in Florida...but it might blow your o-ring...
Well that’s a window into the soul
The decline hasn’t even started yet...stay tuned, Skip.Economic turnaround is starting to happen
The Stealth Sunbelt Virus Turnaround Will Boost the Economy
Even without a new stimulus package, there are reasons for optimism.www.bloomberg.com
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Can we not turn every thread into the same nonsense? My post was directly related to the topic of Disney cutting hours and when (if ever) it’s possible crowds will pick up again this year. Your Covid denial and anti-mask rhetoric aren’t relevant to the topic.
SpoiledBlueMilk
Well-Known Member
Google some of the old "homes of the future" films from the 50's and 60's from Westinghouse or GE - we're finally getting close to that retro-future.
You don’t seem to understand how percentages work...or really numbers in general.
I would try to explain why the trends are good in Florida...but it might blow your o-ring...
Well that’s a window into the soul
The decline hasn’t even started yet...stay tuned, Skip.
No worries, please explain why trends are good in Florida
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Because people began to shut up and did what the doctors told them to do...by and large. Despite the months of nonsense bravado.
Fear lead to “quiet” compliance for the majority. Which is the point. Which is how you flatten the curve.
That has happened everywhere...eventually. Blame the Doctors...blame the Media. It works.
Also...”more tests = more cases” is the most nonsensical statement ever. So let’s not go there. That’s an anti-rational stance that would somehow imply that the virus manifested itself at the point the tests were conducted. One of those illogical “human” stances if ever there was one.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
The trends are positive if you compare today to the July peak. If we compare today to May 27 when Disney announced their re-opening plans and cases that day were under 500 and percent positive was well under 5% then not so great. It’s all relative to what you compare it to. When they get back to May levels then I think we will see more people feeling comfortable visiting FL. I’m not saying it will be business as usual, but an uptick. For WDW that could mean a holiday bump. All this assumes cases continue down and people don’t get over confident that the “trends” look good and try to re-open bars or lift restrictions.
But back then in June people were complaining that we weren't testing enough and that was why it was low positivity.
A rather simplistic and naive view IMHO, but I respectably understand that is your opinion and 100% valid as that.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Low testing leads to a higher percent positive not lower. Back when Disney announced the opening percent positive and overall cases were both low meaning that there was a much lower level of virus in the community spreading.
You are leaving out what the virus is actually doing in that scenario. A trending lower positivity rate amid expanded testing (vs. May testing levels) is the result of the virus not spreading through a testing area.
Florida is improving quickly now, park hours will be extended sooner than later. They will extend hours by October if not sooner. Looks like even the B1G ten football, at least a majority of their schools might be reversing their decision on football
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Meanwhile, back at the thread, here's a link to the next 5 days of park hours...
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I don’t know what that means. There‘s no reason to debate this, it’s clearly been established. A percent positive above roughly 5% means you are not testing enough. If percent positive is above 5% then it’s likely you aren’t catching all of the infected people and your case numbers are probably higher than reported. When percent positive drops below 5% then you can use the total positive cases as a good proxy for how much infection is actually in the community. So back when the percent positive in FL was below 5% and the number of cases was very low that was the best case scenario (NY right now). Right now the percent positive In FL is still a little high (lower than the peak, but above 5%) so it’s likely that there are still more cases that aren’t being caught in the total positive numbers.
The point of all this is that if Disney wants to see a meaningful bump in park attendance (leading to expanded hours and more resorts open) then FL needs to get back to the numbers it was seeing at the end of May. That’s not the only factor, but it’s a big one if they want to draw people back from out of state. Lack of a desire to fly is still an issue, but if nationwide numbers get better that helps.
JohnD
Well-Known Member
Maybe from this thread because this conversation has nothing to do with park hours. There's a thread for this discussion. It's called "Coronavirus and Walt Disney World General Discussion."
No, several hundred thousand would go to the lawyer with AP holders get 10% discounts on their next AP.
Makes perfect sense, long ago we went quite often to Six Flags over Texas because it was a short day trip, but then they started pulling the shorter hours crap and just like Disney they kept the same prices so we just stopped going. It boggles the mind that parks think they can offer less and expect consumers to ignore it. If there was no virus tomorrow I wouldn't take are normal fall trip to Disney given the hours would be shortened, the entertainment reduced and yet prices the same... the experience has been limited so it is reasonable to see a reduction in the admission price.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Park hours are dependent on demand...
Demand is determined by the health and economic situation.
Capacity is also determined by the health situation.
I get it...we are covid out at this point...but all roads do lead back to Rome in this situation.
There are zero operational questions that can be discussed without the elephant in the room.
Get comfy.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
But there will be a virus tomorrow. And shortened hours and reduced entertainment are a direct effect. They still need to keep capacity down and lowering prices isn't going to have any benefit to them.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The problem is that Disney has done this...particularly the last decade.
This isn’t about the covid world for Disney...it’s more what is going to happen after the ten year period bookended by the housing crash and covid.
They made changes in course/direction that will now be put to the test.
Like closing at 7, tossing you out, then charging another day’s fee to let you back in. That’s gonna be on trial for awhile.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I think this highlights the problem Disney has. There are 2 basic levers you can pull to increase profits, either increase revenue or decrease costs. On the revenue side they can increase revenue by increasing guest count but if they need to discount prices to increase guests it may not be a positive gain in revenue. In normal times discounting may work, bjt right now there are some non-economic factors keeping demand down. Disney has limited ability to make people want to travel. IMHO they’ve done a pretty good job of marketing the parks and controlling PR but that only goes so far. When you can’t increase revenues as much as you would want the other lever is a reduction in expense. Moth balling resorts, reduced park hours, rides and shows closed, etc. I think right now Disney is relying on the I’m going to WDW no matter what crowd. So lower revenues and bare bones experience.
If the situation improves I think they could ramp up some offerings. Increase hours, open more hotels, maybe even bring back some of the entertainment people crave. I’m not as optimistic as some here (fireworks aren’t coming back in a month), but I do think if they anticipate a larger appetite for travel in general we could get some upgrades for the holiday season.