Universal announces yet another major attraction, Disney taking a nap

[Fun2BFree]

I don't usually vouch for people, but WDW1974 knows much, much more about the internal information at the WDC than anyone else on these boards, including Lee, Martin, and me. He may not have access to the WDI info Martin gets, but when it comes to facts, figures, numbers, and people, 74 has significant sources.

His opinions and such are, of course, subjective, but his facts are dead-on.

Okay, I'll admit I'm in the wrong and apologize. I just think that WDW isn't in terrible danger of being overtaken by Universal, and if I came across as arrogant or condescending, I'm sorry.

I'm going to calm down and post on some nice threads now. :lol:

 

[magicmaya]

I just finish riding river adventure.I got stuck on spiderman an hour ago.I have a curse of getting stuck on that ride.:lol:

 

[WDW1974]

I don't know how you could say attendance or profits are down -- it's nothing but vague speculation. :shrug:

Uhm, no, it isn't.

Just read Disney's financial reports.

They're hurting (certainly not alone in that).

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

yep trapped wind does that to me.

 

[WDW1974]

He may as well be praying. His argument definitely needs divine protection to shield it from pure facts.

(Yes, I messed up. That's what happens when forums come before coffee.) :lookaroun

Again ... do you read the financials? Do you listen to what Iger and Staggs have been saying?

Do you see how Disney's profits and revenues have dropped? Do you hear them talking about falling attendance? Do you see the unprecedented discounting they have been doing just to get the numbers to where they are?

Do you see how incredibly bad their cash flow is right now?

Those are all incontrovertible facts you can find online ... those are NOT simply my fanboi opinions.

OK ... I see you have changed your tune ... but I am still leaving this post up in case others think I'm pulling this stuff out of my .

 

[lazyboy97o]

It is amazing how much spin Disney gets from people not even on the payroll. The only reason the stock jumped is because things are really crappy, but everybody expected things to be really really crappy. Punch "disney revenue" into any news search and you can see for yourself from your preferred news outlet.

 

[jt04]

Again ... do you read the financials? Do you listen to what Iger and Staggs have been saying?

Do you see how Disney's profits and revenues have dropped? Do you hear them talking about falling attendance? Do you see the unprecedented discounting they have been doing just to get the numbers to where they are?

Do you see how incredibly bad their cash flow is right now?

Those are all incontrovertible facts you can find online ... those are NOT simply my fanboi opinions.

OK ... I see you have changed your tune ... but I am still leaving this post up in case others think I'm pulling this stuff out of my .

But....

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3if21dd856cfb9103efdb5509191243a34

and...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/18/AR2009051803201.html?hpid=topnews

and...

DCA is looking great.

Please explain.

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

But....

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3if21dd856cfb9103efdb5509191243a34

and...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/18/AR2009051803201.html?hpid=topnews

and...

DCA is looking great.

Please explain.

I take it you didnt read them or are cherry picking.

 

[WDW1974]

I do like AK, but I will have to say, I don't understand why Disney would want to undertake the burden of caring for live animals and dealing with all that is involved with that just to have a zoo on the property. Most cities already have a zoo. Disney's talent lies in the fantasy realm. I don't think many would complain if they would have built DisneySea rather than AK.

DAK is far more than a zoo. Forgetting the annoying Natazuu ad campaign ... and without quoting Disney PR verbatim, it is a theme park about all animals and creatures that ever were and never were.

There is plenty of fantasy in that amazing park. And there would have been vastly more if BK hadn't got lopped off and replaced with a character meet, greet and grope. Of course, even foamheads are supposed to be fantasy characters aren't they?

The DisneySea concept has never to my (pretty deep) knowledege ever been remotely considered for Orlando ... or anywhere except for where it wound up and in a quite different form for Long Beach's Port Disney concept.

And frankly, I wouldn't want to see a Disney Sea in Orlando. I like unique things. DAK is as unique as it gets. Much like EPCOT Center in the 80s and ... even today.

That said, AK is the prettiest of all the parks in all of Orlando IMO, but it just seems like a lot of trouble. They also can't keep the park open as late and have fireworks due to the animals, further limiting its potential.

A lot of trouble? All parks require tremendous resources to run. Having animals may add a facet to that, but not having them doesn't change it either.

The pyro excuse is a weak one. They don't have enough in the park to keep it open later. That's because Disney doesn't build complete park products (unless they are doing so for another company) anymore. If DAK had been built as originally planned, then they wouldn't see so many people leaving and park-hopping.

They spent a lot of time and money planning a DAK After Dark concept that would have included Rivers of Light, an amazing night production by wiz Steve Davison. It was killed when Jay Rasulo decided he wanted to go after the Discovery Cove clientele with his own boutique park ... unfortunately, most of the people Disney paid off and surveyed said they wouldn't pay $300 a pop to go and then the economy crashed ... Iger was never sold on the concept to begin with and hence here we are in 2009 with a park that usually is open 9-5.

I just don't like Joe Rhode's execution very much. I like his attention to detail and theming talents, but Dinosaur and EE are both widely considered to be disappointing compared to the initial promise, as is all of AK.

Joe Rohde and his WDI team did an amazing job on DAK. The place just oozes atmosphere and the detailing is pretty much the best in Orlando and blows away say MK.

I'm not thrilled with either CTX or Forbidden Mountain (yeah, I like their real names better), but they aren't crap. And they would be far better if park ops gave a damn about maintaining them.

I realize DAK isn't for everyone. Many people, sadly, believe if it isn't Mickey, Belle, Nemo, Woody, Pooh, Tink and Goofy than it isn't Disney.

 

[lazyboy97o]

But....

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3if21dd856cfb9103efdb5509191243a34

and...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/18/AR2009051803201.html?hpid=topnews

and...

DCA is looking great.

Please explain.

All this shows is that Disney was wise in the past. They have massive cash reserves. The stock prices reflects current faith in Disney's ability to weather the storm.

The purchase of the land in Washington D.C. did not have to be paid for with current profits. Disney has those cash reserves mentioned and lines of credit. The previous owners may have also given Disney a great deal depending on their own financial situation.

By your logic, there would be no seasonal businesses, be it ones that actually close for months at a time or ones that become very inactive for months at a time.

 

[jt04]

I take it you didnt read them or are cherry picking.

No, if they are having the cash flow problems some are saying, how are they going forward with DVC in Hawaii, the DVC in Washington DC, the massive work at DCA and DL and Space Mountain at WDW?

It's confusing. :veryconfu

 

[lazyboy97o]

No, if they are having the cash flow problems some are saying, how are they going forward with DVC in Hawaii, the DVC in Washington DC, the massive work at DCA and DL and Space Mountain at WDW?

It's confusing. :veryconfu

Disney has cash reserves, which I believe measure in the billions, plus existing and new lines of credit. I am not sure on the details as to how each project is being financed.

 

[jakeman]

Again ... do you read the financials? Do you listen to what Iger and Staggs have been saying?

Do you see how Disney's profits and revenues have dropped? Do you hear them talking about falling attendance? Do you see the unprecedented discounting they have been doing just to get the numbers to where they are?

Do you see how incredibly bad their cash flow is right now?

Those are all incontrovertible facts you can find online ... those are NOT simply my fanboi opinions.

OK ... I see you have changed your tune ... but I am still leaving this post up in case others think I'm pulling this stuff out of my .

Not the facts, but maybe the cause.

In my opinion, Disney is doing what they have to right now survive the current economy. What they do when the economy improves will be a more telling sign then them tightening their belts when everyone is doing it.

You also can't look at it a vaccuum and you have to compare it to other, similar companies, or at the very least, parts of companies. Which brings me to...

But....

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3if21dd856cfb9103efdb5509191243a34

and...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/18/AR2009051803201.html?hpid=topnews

and...

DCA is looking great.

Please explain.

You might want to read the first one jt, it's happy until about halfway through where is says to expect a crash.

Also, I'm not sure the investiment of property 800 miles from WDW really has an impact on their finances.

 

[jt04]

You might want to read the first one jt, it's happy until about halfway through where is says to expect a crash.

Also, I'm not sure the investiment of property 800 miles from WDW really has an impact on their finances.

I read it. That is why I was confused about how they are going forward with so many massive projects all over the US.

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

No, if they are having the cash flow problems some are saying, how are they going forward with DVC in Hawaii, the DVC in Washington DC, the massive work at DCA and DL and Space Mountain at WDW?

It's confusing. :veryconfu

If a company famed for being creative is perceived to be struggling creatively dont you think that spells trouble?

 

[WDW1974]

I take it you didnt read them or are cherry picking.

You do know who the poster is, right?

But even in the only one I read, from the Reporter, take a piece from one of the top analysts.

<<The leading bear is Pali analyst Richard Greenfield, who saw little comfort when Disney reported a quarterly profit that dropped 46% year-over-year.

"While investors have an inherent love of the Disney brand and its key brands and assets, we believe Disney's current stock price does not properly reflect the dramatic decline in earnings across the company's operations," Greenfield wrote when he reiterated his "sell" recommendation and $12.50 price target.

Greenfield's concerns are numerous, including his assertion that Disney will struggle to maintain demand at its U.S. theme parks and "the creative struggle Disney is experiencing, particularly on the studio-entertainment side of the business."

Most ominously, Greenfield says the problems Disney face will not go away when the economy improves.

"The economy has nothing to do with Disney making bad movies; in fact, the creative struggles are even more concerning given how strong domestic boxoffice has been year-to-date," he writes.>>

But beyond what any analyst says, just look at the numbers (not the stock price).

 

[jt04]

You do know who the poster is, right?

But even in the only one I read, from the Reporter, take a piece from one of the top analysts.

<<The leading bear is Pali analyst Richard Greenfield, who saw little comfort when Disney reported a quarterly profit that dropped 46% year-over-year.

"While investors have an inherent love of the Disney brand and its key brands and assets, we believe Disney's current stock price does not properly reflect the dramatic decline in earnings across the company's operations," Greenfield wrote when he reiterated his "sell" recommendation and $12.50 price target.

Greenfield's concerns are numerous, including his assertion that Disney will struggle to maintain demand at its U.S. theme parks and "the creative struggle Disney is experiencing, particularly on the studio-entertainment side of the business."

Most ominously, Greenfield says the problems Disney face will not go away when the economy improves.

"The economy has nothing to do with Disney making bad movies; in fact, the creative struggles are even more concerning given how strong domestic boxoffice has been year-to-date," he writes.>>

But beyond what any analyst says, just look at the numbers (not the stock price).

So again, how are they going forward with all those amazing new projects?

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

Which is why I believe that if they are cash rich they should be using the current climate to invest in projects to help maintain interest and demand. After all it wont be gaining much interest sat in a bank.

 

[jt04]

If a company famed for being creative is perceived to be struggling creatively dont you think that spells trouble?

But perception isn't paying the contruction workers. Again, there are some major projects underway. That is why I'm confused. :veryconfu

 

[Fun2BFree]

OK ... I see you have changed your tune ...

To be fair, I have no more knowledge than the average poster, so I can't argue with you financially or statistically. But, to go all the way back to the original argument, the reasons for the fall in attendance and profit aren't because of Disney's allegedly-slipping quality, but because of a credit crunch that has affected everyone adversely. Our criticism of Disney hasn't made a dent and it's my firm belief that WDW will continue to increase its success come the end of the financial crisis. The lack of an internet 20 years ago meant the average fan was less-informed and so wouldn't know about refurb budgets or anything behind-the-scenes -- much like the general public now, they'd visit WDW, have fun and be blissfully unaware. Again, we've changed more than Disney have: we're more knowledgeable, more cynical and more nostalgic than ever, and we have a forum to tell the whole world.