Theme park group says state guidelines ‘sentence’ laid off and furloughed workers to ‘poverty’ - OCR/SCNG

[October82]

Certainly not “everything” as lockdowns make an untold number of lives much, much harder to bear. Now and in the future after the lockdown has passed.

I'm not certain that is certain. As @lazyboy97o points out, it is very difficult to untangle the effects of lockdowns from the overall impact of the pandemic.

That aside, there's a bit of goalpost moving thing going on here. What everything means here is everything related to controlling the spread of the virus itself. Lockdowns reduce the burden on contract tracing. They make achieving adequate testing easier. They lower the number of people who are infected. They lower the overall death toll. etc. And they do this (to some degree) whether the lockdown is long or short. All of those make people's lives much, much easier to bear. Now and in the future.

I object to it because it alone doesn’t show whether lockdowns are effective or not.

Stronger and better evidence is necessary to prove such a point.

So, again, the point of sharing a graph like that is that it is a case study. No one is suggesting it substitutes for a more thorough analysis in settings where such an analysis is appropriate. What nice graphics and cases studies do is illustrate points and suggest lines of future inquiry around complicated topics.

It's very strange (to me) to object to the use of graphics like this (on principle) when discussing a topic on a discussion forum like this one.

 

[October82]

My question would be: how doesn’t this increase the density of people performing non-essential activities from 5am-10pm?

In my family, Christmas shopping takes place in the very late and early hours. Now, if we were under this curfew, we would have to do that shopping during the day, thus increasing the density of people shopping during the day and further exacerbating a potential superspreader event.

The activities that take place between 10 pm-5 am are of a different type than those that take place at other times of the day. Most people aren't like your family, out doing Christmas shopping at 3 am.

Your criticism is not an unreasonable one, though. We don't know whether curfews are effective yet and it will take time to find out.

 

[Communicora]

Can someone explain the rationale for Newsom’s 10pm-5am curfew? Is there any scientific evidence to support such an act whatsoever?

In Minnesota, contact tracing showed that many cases were related to socializing in bars after 10 PM. Countries around the world and states in our nation aren't setting curfews just for the fun of it.

 

[Stripes]

There is no single way to implement a lockdown. There are means of mitigating the burden born by some, but it’s not unquantifiable. Those hit hardest by a lockdown are also hit hardest by a pandemic. This idea that activity would otherwise carry on is completely unfounded.

I agree, it is quantifiable. It should be quantified.

Some would carry on. By no means all.

They are effective for their intended purpose. They drastically reduce person-to-person interaction. If the virus has no place to go then it cannot spread. They’re not supposed to be a long term solution. During the spring was supposed to be when systems of containment were out in place. That largely did not happen and now we’re again left staring at blunt instruments.

No disagreement. I disagree that a mandatory lockdown is good for overall public health.

I'm not certain that is certain. As @lazyboy97o points out, it is very difficult to untangle the effects of lockdowns from the overall impact of the pandemic.

The activities that take place between 10 pm-5 am are of a different type than those that take place at other times of the day. Most people aren't like your family, out doing Christmas shopping at 3 am.

We, like many families, want to keep the contents of the presents hidden from the children. The best way to do that, for us, is to shop during the night when the kids are sound asleep.

We don't know whether curfews are effective yet and it will take time to find out.

I think it should have been trialed in smaller communities first before being implemented for almost the entire population of the state of California to serve as guinea pigs.

In Minnesota, contact tracing showed that many cases were related to socializing in bars after 10 PM. Countries around the world and states in our nation aren't setting curfews just for the fun of it.

The data suggests that bars on the whole are bad for COVID spread. So shutdown the bars entirely or from 10pm to 5am.

 

[Communicora]

The data suggests that bars on the whole are bad for COVID spread. So shutdown the bars entirely or from 10pm to 5am.

Yes. We had the curfew on bars and restaurants for about a week and then things were still trending dramatically poorly so they are now closed for all but takeaway for the next month.

 

[Stripes]

Yes. We had the curfew on bars and restaurants for about a week and then things were still trending dramatically poorly so they are now closed for all but takeaway for the next month.

Same here. Follow the evidence.

 

[TP2000]

We, like many families, want to keep the contents of the presents hidden from the children. The best way to do that, for us, is to shop during the night when the kids are sound asleep.

The good news is that I just checked the various big box store websites in OC; Target, WalMart, etc. and they are still staying open until 11pm or Midnight through the Christmas season, as per usual.

Also, almost every single County Sherriff in SoCal has already gone on record with the media stating they will not be enforcing curfew restrictions. They simply have better things to worry about and they just don't care. The LA County Sherriff in particular was furious last week that no one from Sacramento consulted with him or even told him about the upcoming curfew, he had to learn about it on the news like everyone else.

San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura County Sheriffs Join OC Sheriff, Decline To Enforce COVID Curfew

Sheriff Don Barnes said Friday the curfew order "is not a matter of law enforcement", echoing the statements of several other county sheriffs across Southern California.

losangeles.cbslocal.com

Just like Sacramento did with the nail salons and Disneyland, they are not communicating or consulting with anyone beyond the walls of the Capitol or the private dining room at The French Laundry. They are simply dictating, and then are in disbelief when the serfs won't obey.

This isn't a law enforcement concept exclusive to SoCal either, NorCal sherriffs and police chiefs are also saying no.

Will local law enforcement agencies enforce coronavirus curfew? The answer is a unanimous ‘no’

Like previous statewide orders issued during the COVID-19 pandemic, the response from local law enforcement agencies to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s latest order, which requires non-essential work, mo…

www.chicoer.com

So head out late at night and go shopping! But also realize when you hide the gifts, that the kids have already figured out all the hiding places.

 

[Disney Irish]

The good news is that I just checked the various big box store websites in OC; Target, WalMart, etc. and they are still staying open until 11pm or Midnight through the Christmas season, as per usual.

Also, almost every single County Sherriff in SoCal has already gone on record with the media stating they will not be enforcing curfew restrictions. They simply have better things to worry about and they just don't care. The LA County Sherriff in particular was furious last week that no one from Sacramento consulted with him or even told him about the upcoming curfew, he had to learn about it on the news like everyone else.

San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura County Sheriffs Join OC Sheriff, Decline To Enforce COVID Curfew

Sheriff Don Barnes said Friday the curfew order "is not a matter of law enforcement", echoing the statements of several other county sheriffs across Southern California.

losangeles.cbslocal.com

Just like Sacramento did with the nail salons and Disneyland, they are not communicating or consulting with anyone beyond the walls of the Capitol or the private dining room at The French Laundry. They are simply dictating, and then are in disbelief when the serfs won't obey.

This isn't a law enforcement concept exclusive to SoCal either, NorCal sherriffs and police chiefs are also saying no.

Will local law enforcement agencies enforce coronavirus curfew? The answer is a unanimous ‘no’

Like previous statewide orders issued during the COVID-19 pandemic, the response from local law enforcement agencies to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s latest order, which requires non-essential work, mo…

www.chicoer.com

So head out late at night and go shopping! But also realize when you hide the gifts, that the kids have already figured out all the hiding places.

Wait, if LA County had a curfew that went into effect BEFORE the state's curfew doesn't that mean that its LA County Health Officials that should be taking the blame for "not communicating"? I mean they would have been the ones who instituted the LA County curfew. So why isn't the LA County Sheriff throwing shade at the LA County Health Officials?

Oh that's right because some in elected office, like the LA County Sheriff, have turned this into a political talking point about "personal freedoms" rather than the health crisis that it is.

 

[Professortango1]

My question would be: how doesn’t this increase the density of people performing non-essential activities from 5am-10pm?

In my family, Christmas shopping takes place in the very late and early hours. Now, if we were under this curfew, we would have to do that shopping during the day, thus increasing the density of people shopping during the day and further exacerbating a potential superspreader event.

I'm not sure where you were shopping that was open earlier than 5 am. You can still shop in the early hours and late as well. Plus, there's online shopping. Tons of options available. Most stores were already closed 10 pm till 5 am. This only affects restaurants and bars who had late night crowds which is generally more geared towards social activities rather than essential functions.

 

[Stripes]

I'm not sure where you were shopping that was open earlier than 5 am. You can still shop in the early hours and late as well. Plus, there's online shopping. Tons of options available. Most stores were already closed 10 pm till 5 am. This only affects restaurants and bars who had late night crowds which is generally more geared towards social activities rather than essential functions.

In previous years, and based on my knowledge of the happenings in the retail sector this year as well, retailers extend their hours by a lot as we get closer and closer to Christmas.

 

[lazyboy97o]

1,000 U.S. Hospitals Are 'Critically' Short On Staff — And More Expect To Be Soon

As COVID-19 hospitalizations surge, new data released by the federal government show how many hospitals are struggling with staffing.

www.npr.org

 

[October82]

We, like many families, want to keep the contents of the presents hidden from the children. The best way to do that, for us, is to shop during the night when the kids are sound asleep.

I would kindly suggest that public health should take precedence over late night shopping habits.

 

[MarvelCharacterNerd]

Maybe we should look at why alcohol sales are essential when trying to keep people out of hospitals.

I have been baffled by the liquor stores and pot shops being 'essential' (especially when one can get alcohol at the actually essential grocery stores).

Then again I don't understand why film and tv production crews are suddenly announced by the governor as essential workers, too.

I don't want anyone losing a job or family business, but I cannot fathom how pot brownies and filming Ellen's daytime talk show compare to nurses, pharmacists and keeping food and cleaning supplies stocked at Walmart.

Either 'essential' means something or it doesn't. Then again, CA's governor has his own arbitrary definitions of a lot of things...

 

[LastoneOn]

I have been baffled by the liquor stores and pot shops being 'essential' (especially when one can get alcohol at the actually essential grocery stores).

Then again I don't understand why film and tv production crews are suddenly announced by the governor as essential workers, too.

I don't want anyone losing a job or family business, but I cannot fathom how pot brownies and filming Ellen's daytime talk show compare to nurses, pharmacists and keeping food and cleaning supplies stocked at Walmart.

Either 'essential' means something or it doesn't. Then again, CA's governor has his own arbitrary definitions of a lot of things...

If there is one industry unessential to human well being, its the American "entertainment industry." With zillions of hours already out there, we can find something to watch and listen to, and probably better than the new stuff they're putting out.

Hollywood is also the most green house gas producing industry on the planet. There is a study done by USC, might have been UCLA that detailed that a decade or so ago. Enormous waste of energy, materials, everything.

Save the planet, end Hollywood.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Do tell... DO tell...

I’m a big fan of Frédéric Bastiat.

I have been baffled by the liquor stores and pot shops being 'essential' (especially when one can get alcohol at the actually essential grocery stores).

Then again I don't understand why film and tv production crews are suddenly announced by the governor as essential workers, too.

I don't want anyone losing a job or family business, but I cannot fathom how pot brownies and filming Ellen's daytime talk show compare to nurses, pharmacists and keeping food and cleaning supplies stocked at Walmart.

Either 'essential' means something or it doesn't. Then again, CA's governor has his own arbitrary definitions of a lot of things...

Food deserts would be why liquor stores are considered essential. Most of the states deferred to the Department of Homeland Security for the determination of essential businesses, using a list compiled a few years ago. In some cases the governor literally copy and pasted the document. While California may allow grocery stores to sell liquor (I don’t know what is specifically allowed) that is not the case in all states where regulations run from allowing sales of everything to only allowing sales at state-owned stores, so a list developed at the national level would have to account for those differences.

It seems hypocritical to complain about entertainment production being allowed when it’s a case of allowing more openness if it is important to the economy and can be done safely. “Essential” is probably not the best choice of wording.

 

[Stripes]

I really don't mean to be dismissive here but I'm surprised you would try to make this argument. Especially given what you've mentioned in this very post about your family. I would seriously reconsider your view on this specific topic irrespective of all else, particularly because I know you are generally a caring and thoughtful person.

As anyone who is familiar with how abuse works, abuse is rarely visible or obvious. The reason that the pandemic reduced reporting of abuse is that it is most often found through 1) private disclosures to trusted adults (teachers, other caregivers) or 2) during routine but detailed medical exams. In both cases, you absolutely need close personal contact, often for extended amounts of time. Both are much more difficult and would be regardless of public health measures.

I want to caution again that the Disneyland sub-forum has strict rules on political/off-topic discussion which this definitely is at this point. So this will be my last post on the topic in order to avoid the wrath of the moderator. Again, happy to take this discussion elsewhere.

Imported to the Covid-19 politics thread.
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/covid-19.963880/post-9550095

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

On the radio this morning reporters are talking about the news conference yesterday where many questions were asked about the LA county shutdown tomorrow evening. Dr Ferrer was specifically asked about numbers related to outdoor dining and her response was a bumbling mishmash of I don't know and I don't have those on me and she doesn't have that at this time...

One could say it's a little concerning that they are taking action against a specific activity and yet don't have any actual science about it during a press conference.

 

[October82]

On the radio this morning reporters are talking about the news conference yesterday where many questions were asked about the LA county shutdown tomorrow evening. Dr Ferrer was specifically asked about numbers related to outdoor dining and her response was a bumbling mishmash of I don't know and I don't have those on me and she doesn't have that at this time...

One could say it's a little concerning that they are taking action against a specific activity and yet don't have any actual science about it during a press conference.

One of the difficult things about being a scientist when speaking to the public is conveying both what we know and what our uncertainties are. This is especially difficult when many in the public take "I do not know" as a sign that something is wrong or suspect, when being able to say when something is known and when it isn't is a core part of science.

As with similar questions around mask wearing, we should all hope that things like shutting down dining at restaurants is an effective strategy for mitigating the virus because if it is not we will have to do more extreme things that are likely to impact our lives in more consequential ways. No one is unaware of the burden that closing down outdoor dining poses, and there is something deeply cynical about supposing that public health officials have a cavalier attitude towards doing so. We can disagree about the details, of course, but people who spend their lives devoted to public health know what they're doing and aren't making these decisions on a whim.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

As a scientist myself, that was an utter failure on all fronts. If I had data that was going to severely impact people's lives, and was in a conference specifically to talk about those impacts... She should have SOMETHING. It's not a scientific problem, it's common sense.

 

[TP2000]

On the radio this morning reporters are talking about the news conference yesterday where many questions were asked about the LA county shutdown tomorrow evening. Dr Ferrer was specifically asked about numbers related to outdoor dining and her response was a bumbling mishmash of I don't know and I don't have those on me and she doesn't have that at this time...

I listened to KFI on the iheartradio app and their top reporter, Chris Ankarlo, was brutal on how inept and bumbling Dr. Ferrer was in that press conference. She had no data, no science, no specifics to back up her mandate that socially distanced outdoor dining must be shut down in LA County.

And when Chris asked her specifically about her lack of data and science, Dr. Ferrer did two things;

1. She muted him for the rest of the press conference so he couldn't ask any more questions. Chris even played the part where you could hear her push the mute button on him for the remainder of the conference.

2. She said she didn't have any of that information or data available, but would "have my communications team reach out to you with that info". Chris then detailed how she has used that line with him many times since she began hosting Covid press conferences in March, and not one single time has anyone from her staff ever contacted him with the information or made any attempt at any contact. It's a line she uses to push off pesky reporters, but her staff never follows up. Chris threw Dr. Ferrer and her "communications team" under the bus on live radio.

Again, this is the top reporter for KFI AM 640 which is a 50,000 Watt mega-station, the highest rated talk/news station in SoCal, with a signal that easily stretches into Nevada and Arizona. This wasn't a cub reporter from a small blog or high school newspaper.

One of the difficult things about being a scientist when speaking to the public is conveying both what we know and what our uncertainties are. This is especially difficult when many in the public take "I do not know" as a sign that something is wrong or suspect, when being able to say when something is known and when it isn't is a core part of science.

I can agree with that in theory, especially in crazy times like these.

But that wasn't at all what happened yesterday with Dr. Ferrer at her bizarre, rambling press conference.

Dr. Ferrer has repeatedly failed to provide any science or data for any of the arbitrary dictates she has been making. The only information she provided for her current mandate to stop all outdoor dining in LA County is a single report by the CDC from seven months ago that stated that up to 15% of Covid cases can be assumed to come from restaurants. But that study was based on pre-Covid restaurant operation; indoors, tables packed tightly, dining rooms at full capacity, patrons waiting in a small lobby for tables, no PPE for employees, etc.

In short, like an indoor restaurant operating on a busy Saturday night in 2019.

Dr. Ferrer could provide no science or data to back up her claim that socially-distanced outdoor dining patios are a primary danger for spreading Covid in LA County. But she's shutting down the restaurant industry anyway and putting 700,000 people in LA County out of work this week. Science and Data. Don't question Dr. Ferrer, or she'll press your mute button.