Theme park group says state guidelines ‘sentence’ laid off and furloughed workers to ‘poverty’ - OCR/SCNG

[fctiger]

He said "This is their [Democrats] new hoax", but that doesn't lessen the way he has downplayed this entire thing.

And many people hate him and it's not blind hatred.

So so happy he's gone. And yes, he constantly talked two ways out of his mouth about it. This is someone who tweets 4 hours a day but hasn't met his own task force in five months and they meet in the same building he works in.

Anyway, I don't disagree about California, I too think there can be a middle ground, but that can only happen if most people follow the rules. What's frustrating is I think most do, but it doesn't take much for this virus to spread. One guy who doesn't catches and brings it back to the rest of his family he lives with is all that takes. And there many stories like this. But I agree with everyone here, you can't shut down the biggest state forever. I think everyone thought after 8 months we would have some control over it but it's only gotten worse so so here we are.

 

[RollerCoaster]

The restrictive measures work if people abide by them. That hasn't been the case so far due to the virus being a "hoax" or "just like the flu".

How can you say that people aren't abiding by them? Why do I suspect that you're one of the armchair quarterbacks that hasn't left their home and remain super vocal on the Internet about how people aren't following the rules.

Most of the measures don't give you a choice.

Again as I stated the extra restrictive measures that California has put in place do not help. Most of the measures like keeping theme parks closed and indoor dining restricted haven't left California in a significantly better situation than other parts of the country.

I haven't stopped traveling during this pandemic. I've been to many states and cities all over the US. I'm in Los Angeles right now and will be in Colorado next week. I've recently been to Florida, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, and New Mexico. From what I've observed during my travels is that the overwhelming majority of people are following the rules. Mask wearing is prevalent everywhere in the country.

I will add that mask compliance in Los Angeles is the worst that I've witnessed, but even saying that the overwhelming majority of people are wearing them.

 

[Pete Schweddy]

The restrictive measures work if people abide by them. That hasn't been the case so far due to the virus being a "hoax" or "just like the flu".

That argument falls apart though since blue state cases are rising too. The majority of Californians dislike and don't trust Trump. So you can't blame our rising numbers on his supporters believing he said it was a hoax.

 

[SevenSevens]

While numbers are rising in California, if you look at cases per 100k, the only states doing better than us are:
Virginia
Maine
Vermont
Hawaii (Can't travel there without either QT or testing)

So top 5 (if you don't count DC). We're at 20.7 per 100k population. Considerably better than places like SD at 161per and ND at 180per. The bottom half of the country is at 50 or higher.

Source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

 

[SuddenStorm]

That argument falls apart though since blue state cases are rising too. The majority of Californians dislike and don't trust Trump. So you can't blame our rising numbers on his supporters believing he said it was a hoax.

Cases are rising everywhere. So the question is- does Disneyland being closed slow the rise of cases in any meaningful way? Or, are cases going to rise whether or not Disneyland is operating, and we'd be better off keeping Anaheim's economy afloat as safely as we can, balancing the realities of life with the dangers of a virus.

 

[mickEblu]

I want to go back to a world where Splash Mountain wasn’t racist and if I heard an annoying whispering raspy voice on TV it was Christian Bale playing Batman.

 

[el_super]

Cases are rising everywhere. So the question is- does Disneyland being closed slow the rise of cases in any meaningful way?

While cases are rising in California, they are rising slower than other states. California is the purple line at the bottom:

So yes, having Disneyland closed has helped.

 

[mickEblu]

While cases are rising in California, they are rising slower than other states. California is the purple line at the bottom:

View attachment 513859

So yes, having Disneyland closed has helped.

And this is definitely because Disneyland is closed? Nothing to do with the fact that maybe those people in those states aren’t wearing masks?

 

[TP2000]

And this is definitely because Disneyland is closed? Nothing to do with the fact that maybe those people in those states aren’t wearing masks?

Or peacefully protesting in big crowds?

Or using trampy sex "Dating" Apps on their smartphones every weekend and swiping right one too many times?

Or voting in person instead of by mail?

Or going to a birthday party at The French Laundry with five other households in a small dining room?

So many great examples, so little time.

 

[October82]

Cases are rising everywhere. So the question is- does Disneyland being closed slow the rise of cases in any meaningful way? Or, are cases going to rise whether or not Disneyland is operating, and we'd be better off keeping Anaheim's economy afloat as safely as we can, balancing the realities of life with the dangers of a virus.

The answer to the question - does Disneyland being closed prevent new cases of Covid-19? - is yes. We know enough about how viruses like this spread to know that events which bring large numbers of people from less connected social circles to the same locations for extended periods of time will lead to (many) new cases. Disneyland is particularly problematic given that its business model requires large numbers of tourists, and even "locals" in Southern California behave like tourists from the perspective of virus spread.

The answer to the question - is that meaningful? - is more difficult. Without detailed SEIR modeling and an appropriately constructed counterfactual scenario (almost none of the discussion in this thread about red/blue states having different/similar rates is meaningful), I don't think anyone can give a detailed answer to that question. The measles outbreak at Disneyland from several years ago - in a mostly vaccinated population - suggests that theme parks like Disneyland are likely to make meaningful contributions to the spread of moderately-highly transmissible viruses.

The answer to - how do we keep the economy afloat? - is a political one. (Hopefully) Without going over the line into pure politics, I would suggest that the options should never have been - keep Disneyland opened so people can feed their families and allow the spread of the virus, or close it and see people go hungry and not spread the virus. We should never have found ourselves arguing that theme parks/indoor dining/whatever should be required to be open for the sake of the economy and we wouldn't if our political system was a functioning one.

 

[Pete Schweddy]

And this is definitely because Disneyland is closed? Nothing to do with the fact that maybe those people in those states aren’t wearing masks?

Has anyone seen where all these new cases are getting spread around at? 6-7 months ago we kept hearing about contact tracing, has that been done that anyone has heard of? Is it from indoor dining, gyms, theaters, bars, schools? Or is it from people having private gatherings at home, work, parks, expensive Michelin rated restaurants?

 

[October82]

Has anyone seen where all these new cases are getting spread around at? 6-7 months ago we kept hearing about contact tracing, has that been done that anyone has heard of? Is it from indoor dining, gyms, theaters, bars, schools? Or is it from people having private gatherings at home, work, parks, expensive Michelin rated restaurants?

Here is a recent (high profile) CDC study about this. Nothing unexpected, but it's nice to have hard data. In short, all of these things contribute to the spread of the virus. Some of them contribute more, some less, but some of them are also more important to continue (for example, schools need to be open, bars don't).

Summary​

What is already known about the topic?

Community and close contact exposures contribute to the spread of COVID-19.

What is added by this report?

Findings from a case-control investigation of symptomatic outpatients from 11 U.S. health care facilities found that close contact with persons with known COVID-19 or going to locations that offer on-site eating and drinking options were associated with COVID-19 positivity. Adults with positive SARS-CoV-2 test results were approximately twice as likely to have reported dining at a restaurant than were those with negative SARS-CoV-2 test results.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Eating and drinking on-site at locations that offer such options might be important risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Efforts to reduce possible exposures where mask use and social distancing are difficult to maintain, such as when eating and drinking, should be considered to protect customers, employees, and communities.

 

[mandelbrot]

Has anyone seen where all these new cases are getting spread around at? 6-7 months ago we kept hearing about contact tracing, has that been done that anyone has heard of? Is it from indoor dining, gyms, theaters, bars, schools? Or is it from people having private gatherings at home, work, parks, expensive Michelin rated restaurants?

The spread seems to worst in bars, restaurants, large indoors gatherings, churches, factories, prisons, nursing homes, and the White House. Schools themselves don't seem to be particularly high risk spreaders but social activities related to colleges seem to be pretty bad. Outdoor spread seems to be minimal even in large gatherings if most people wear masks although with the Midwest (especially the Dakotas) blowing up it certainly looks like Sturgis (where few wore masks) caused significant spread. Contact tracing is next to impossible in places with uncontrolled spread which is most of the US right now.

National leadership with clear messaging would have been very beneficial. Local guidelines can only do so much when there there are no real restrictions on interstate travel. That's likely why places which draw people from all over like Disneyland remain closed in states where government actually tries to reduce spread. Disney World has almost certainly caused significant spread but contact tracing in Florida is virtually non-existent so we'll never know.

 

[mandelbrot]

As far as theme park closures causing widespread poverty: many (most?) theme park workers were already below the poverty line before the pandemic.

 

[Lilofan]

As far as theme park closures causing widespread poverty: many (most?) theme park workers were already below the poverty line before the pandemic.

It's ironic, park workers work for a company whose CEO at the time Iger was the highest compensated CEO in the ENTIRE country.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Cases are rising everywhere. So the question is- does Disneyland being closed slow the rise of cases in any meaningful way? Or, are cases going to rise whether or not Disneyland is operating, and we'd be better off keeping Anaheim's economy afloat as safely as we can, balancing the realities of life with the dangers of a virus.

@techgeek posted this study from Nature that identifies dining and hotels (major components of Disneyland Resort and surrounding businesses) as points of spread in the Walt Disney World thread.

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening - Nature

An epidemiological model that integrates fine-grained mobility networks illuminates mobility-related mechanisms that contribute to higher infection rates among disadvantaged socioeconomic and racial groups, and finds that restricting maximum occupancy at locations is especially effective for...

www.nature.com

 

[Darkbeer1]

As far as theme park closures causing widespread poverty: many (most?) theme park workers were already below the poverty line before the pandemic.

A single person Federal Poverty Line is $12,760 in 2020. At $13 per hour, that is about 1,000 hours or 20 hours per week. And only if they don't have a second job.

2020 Poverty Guidelines

U.S. Federal Poverty Guidelines Used to Determine Financial Eligibility for Certain Federal Programs [Federal Register Notice, January 17, 2020 Full text] [Computations for the 2020 Poverty Guidelines] There are two slightly different versions of the federal poverty measure:

aspe.hhs.gov

So the answer is no.

 

[George Lucas on a Bench]

Or going to a birthday party at The French Laundry with five other households in a small dining room?

If I were a Shut It Downer, I'd say something like:

*adjusts glasses*

"Well, the room looked properly ventilated and everyone was properly tested for Covid-19 Novel Coronavirus before the event, and they dined in a location where the Color Tier System indicated they could dine indoors. The event was no longer than 2 hours as indicated in Gavin's Guidelines for Better Living. God Bless Gavin."

 

[RollerCoaster]

@techgeek posted this study from Nature that identifies dining and hotels (major components of Disneyland Resort and surrounding businesses) as points of spread in the Walt Disney World thread.

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening - Nature

An epidemiological model that integrates fine-grained mobility networks illuminates mobility-related mechanisms that contribute to higher infection rates among disadvantaged socioeconomic and racial groups, and finds that restricting maximum occupancy at locations is especially effective for...

www.nature.com

Who cares! So many of you have forgotten that the goal was never to stop the spread, but to slow it so as to not overwhelm the hospitals. The narrative was misunderstood and now we've got a segment of the population who is trying to do the impossible "stop the spread".

Shutting down the economy is not working and most importantly doing so doesn't stop the spread. It's an unproven approach that was tried and now that the experiment is done it failed miserably.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Who cares! So many of you have forgotten that the goal was never to stop the spread, but to slow it so as to not overwhelm the hospitals. The narrative was misunderstood and now we've got a segment of the population who is trying to do the impossible "stop the spread".

Shutting down the economy is not working and most importantly doing so doesn't stop the spread. It's an unproven approach that was tried and now that the experiment has done it failed miserably.

Hospitals are being overwhelmed right now.

The idea of minimizing person-to-person contact is not unproven and has worked for centuries.