The Spirited Sixth Sense ...

[lazyboy97o]

Interesting. And, a very true quote about Atlanta...

I still think it's a silly expenditure. Now, pushing a MARTA stop down there would be smart, even if it was just a spoke off Garnett or Georgia State. They also really need to fork the red line at Arts Center and take it up 75...but...whatever.

I'd like to see them start a NW to SE line passing through Five Points, but I doubt that will ever happen.

Just to help this tangent even more, if you know where to look heading north out of Arts Center Station you can see the tunnel portal for the Northwest Line that was built in the 1970s. Following that original plan is now complicated further because Atlantic Station was built without any consideration for heavy rail service. I also love how the Braves gave "lack of transit" as a reason for Cobb. MARTA is not glamorous, but it is definitely better than CCT.

 

[asianway]

So true, you never get the value but do you really want to be locked out of that option for 40 years?

What people need to worry about is if they ever restrict trading to other DVCs.

Home resort restrictions for 40 years would stink. You can always go buy an II/RCI individual membership to trade out if you really wanted to

 

[ParentsOf4]

But compared to the cost/effort required to keep a 'open market' guest.. the DVC owner is far more likely to be returning. Jettisoning your DVC ownership has it's own barriers that makes it a significant decision to 'get out'.

The very nature of DVC is to appeal to those who already are predispositioned to return to WDW.

I've been going to WDW for 36 years. DVC did not suddenly make me want to go more than I already intended. DVC simply was the least expensive way to stay at WDW hotels over the long haul.

I can sell any of my DVC memberships for approximately $10-$20/point more than I paid for them, even after deducting 10% commission. I don't know what barrier you're taking about.

Seriously though, the OCC website lists scores of DVC members who jettison their memberships every month by essentially what amounts to mutual agreement between Disney and the former members. There really is no barrier to dumping a membership.

Over the course of my last 24 nights in a DVC room, I've spent 3 days at WDW theme parks and another 3 at WDW water parks. (I still love the water parks.) The rest have been spent elsewhere, mostly at Universal where, it seems, they do give a damn about their paying customers.

There's a growing number of DVC members who simply don't go to WDW theme parks any more.

DVC villas have there own kitchens and many members don't eat meals at WDW's grossly overpriced restaurants anymore. DTD now is selling a lot of the same generic merchandise that can be found online for less.

DVC members are spending less and less at WDW, not more and more.

This is a trend that has been growing in the last 5 years. It's why Disney has, for example, offered DVC members deep discounts on its Premium Annual Pass for the last 2 years. Disney recognizes that members are no longer visiting the parks like they used to.

You'd think DVC members would be easy money.

As it turns out, they're not much different than anyone else. When they vacation in Orlando, they go where they think they get the biggest bang for the buck. Right now, it's not at WDW theme parks. Quite the opposite. Their frequent visits means they get bored with the same old same old faster than most.

With WDW's theme parks undergoing few changes in the last 5 years, members are growing bored with Disney and increasingly exploring what else Orlando has to offer.

P.S. Sorry, there's one other thing I wanted to mention.

DVC members are happy with the product, i.e. the WDW hotels, and are in no particular rush to sell. I enjoy staying at AKV even when I visit Universal.

However, DVC members are not happy with the parks, nor the price of tickets, food, or merchandise.

My (for example) BWV Maintenance Fee is up an average of 3.2% over the last 3 years. WDW ticket prices are up an average of 7% per year over the same period. WDW food prices are even worse.

Florida timeshare laws keep my annual fees in check. There isn't anything keeping the rest of WDW in check.

 

[GoofGoof]

So true, you never get the value but do you really want to be locked out of that option for 40 years?

It makes more sense to rent your points out and use the cash to pay for your cruise then to trade them in directly. There are a few people on these boards that do that regularly. The direct trade in value makes no sense financially. Trading in through RCI is still not a great deal, but better than through Disney directly.

 

[George]

The very nature of a DVC is to appeal to those who already are predispositioned to return to WDW.

I've been going to WDW for 36 years. DVC did not suddenly make me want to go more than I already intended. DVC simply was the least expensive way to stay at WDW hotels over the long haul.

I can sell any of my DVC memberships for approximately $10-$20/point more than I paid for them, even after deducting 10% commission. I don't know what barrier you're taking about.

Seriously though, the OCC website lists scores of DVC members who jettison their memberships by essentially what amounts to mutual agreement between Disney and the former members. There really is no barrier to dumping a membership.

Over the course of my last 24 nights in a DVC room, I've spent 3 days at WDW theme parks and another 3 at WDW water parks. (I still love the water parks.) The rest have been spent elsewhere, mostly at Universal where, it seems, they do give a damn about their paying customers.

There's a growing number of DVC members who simply don't go to WDW theme parks any more.

DVC villas have there own kitchens and many members don't eat meals at WDW restaurants anymore. DTD now is selling a lot of the same generic merchandise that can be found online for less.

DVC members are spending less and less at WDW, not more and more.

This is a trend that has been growing in the last 5 years. It's why Disney has, for example, offered DVC members deep discounts on its Premium Annual Pass for the last 2 years. Disney recognizes that members are no longer visiting the parks like they used to.

You'd think DVC members would be easy money.

As it turns out, they're not much different than anyone else. When they vacation in Orlando, they go where they think they get the biggest bank for the buck. Right now, it's not at WDW theme parks. Quite the opposite. Their frequent visits means they get bored with the same old same old faster than most.

With WDW's theme parks undergoing few changes in the last 5 years, members are growing bored with Disney and increasingly exploring what else Orlando has to offer.

We actually have 4 common DVC resort dinners we prepare that are quick, filling, and tasty. I think a lot of the people who dine at WDW now aren't regular visitors, but I can't prove that. We will do a couple of nice sit down meals somewhere on property over the course of the week, but I eat at the "table service" restaurants less than I did pre-dining plan at this point.

 

[ford91exploder]

We actually have 4 common DVC resort dinners we prepare that are quick, filling, and tasty. I think a lot of the people who dine at WDW now aren't regular visitors, but I can't prove that. We will do a couple of nice sit down meals somewhere on property over the course of the week, but I eat at the "table service" restaurants less than I did pre-dining plan at this point.

Same here

 

[jlsHouston]

When it comes to the transportation system, the whole metro area should have the reset button pushed. City/county feuding and all that. Absolutely dreadful. (And that's not a jab at the snowpocalypse a few weeks ago. My worst nightmare. An Atlanta commute that never ends.)

It reminded me of that longest traffic jam in the world a couple of years back in China..but with snow

 

[jlsHouston]

I don't think they necessarily care about AP holders, but they are part of the rollout so it's hard to call it complete without them. As far as I know all of the DVC resorts are fully rolled out so DVC isn't a problem at this point, just AP holders.

And what about the software cloud with DVC? Is that fixed with the MB's and MM+ ? Because in November when I stayed using points it was a mess about 1 out of 10 dvc reservations...and the IT people behind concierge could not "fix" it. From what i was told the dvc software is separate than the parks and the resorts.

 

[ParentsOf4]

And what about the software cloud with DVC? Is that fixed with the MB's and MM+ ? Because in November when I stayed using points it was a mess about 1 out of 10 dvc reservations...and the IT people behind concierge could not "fix" it. From what i was told the dvc software is separate than the parks and the resorts.

The DVC member's webpage is going down on February 11. I wonder if they are doing a system upgrade to address issues like this.

Important Notice: Member Services and Online Booking Tool — Unavailable February 11, 2014

In order to provide you with a smooth booking process, Member Services and the Member Online Booking Tool will be temporarily unavailable to accommodate system updates. View times and dates for this scheduled maintenance:

• Member Services: Unavailable from 9:00 AM to 11:00 AM Eastern Time on February 11, 2014
• Member Online Booking Tool: Unavailable from 2:00 AM to 11:00 AM Eastern Time on February 11, 2014

Online banking, loans and annual dues payments will be available during this downtime.

All of us at Disney Vacation Club appreciate your understanding as we update our systems, and we look forward to welcoming you "home" again soon.​

 

[flynnibus]

Not if you enjoy the resort themes and better than full pricing. My point being DVC doesn't equal theme park attendance.

a savannah view studio is still 102 points a week at it's cheapest.. assuming 10-13/pt that is $1020-$1326/week.. or a 1br is 209 or $2090-$2717 a week. Cheap compared to paying Disney's prices.. but not only really competitive on the open market for the studio.. Value or not is up to the eye of the beholder, but I stand by my comment. Not exactly a cheap way to visit Orlando.

As for DVC not equaling theme park attendence - sure.. but not everything needs to be 100% coverage to be accurate to the point of substantial.

 

[flynnibus]

Disney doesn't like the resale market and the proof the changes they made in recent years regarding using resales points for cruises , etc

That's fine.. but I don't see the connection or where you were going with that. Resale is a double edge sword with DVC for Disney. It helps reduce long term risk for the buyer, but is also competition for Disney as a seller.

 

[flynnibus]

The very nature of DVC is to appeal to those who already are predispositioned to return to WDW.

Yes, but like all upsell opportunities... you try to encourage more trips than they might have taken otherwise. Yes these people were the type looking to visit disney frequently... but unlike an open market, that 'slot' isn't going to take 2-3 year break.. nor necessarily is every 'predispositioned' guest necessarily going to carry through with their current rate of visitation for decades to come. DVC lock-in helps 'steer' those buyers into more consistent visitation.

The angle you elude to (that Disney is losing because of the discount) is like the house advantage in a casino.. in the long run, the house always wins

I've been going to WDW for 36 years. DVC did not suddenly make me want to go more than I already intended. DVC simply was the least expensive way to stay at WDW hotels over the long haul.

I can sell any of my DVC memberships for approximately $10-$20/point more than I paid for them, even after deducting 10% commission. I don't know what barrier you're taking about.

Seriously though, the OCC website lists scores of DVC members who jettison their memberships every month by essentially what amounts to mutual agreement between Disney and the former members. There really is no barrier to dumping a membership.

1) Not everyone bought in cheap
2) Not everyone's visitation patterns are as consistent over the years... DVC helps lock that in
3) Not all buyers have achieved break-even. If you haven't, that is something holding people back from selling. Selling is also a real estate transaction that must be completed with all the paperwork, etc. Not everyone is in the 'free and clear' and that break-even for people can be quite long depending on their circumstances. The point is... 'getting out of your membership' is far more a complex decision to make than simply 'skipping a year' as a free market visitor.

Over the course of my last 24 nights in a DVC room, I've spent 3 days at WDW theme parks and another 3 at WDW water parks. (I still love the water parks.) The rest have been spent elsewhere, mostly at Universal where, it seems, they do give a damn about their paying customers.

There's a growing number of DVC members who simply don't go to WDW theme parks any more.

Didn't say there wasn't - this isn't a game of absolutes. But if it becomes such a groundswell.. it will eat into the value proposition and impact prices. Visiting Orlando for purely the cost of your dues is great.. but it takes a good bit of time to hit (and past investment) to get to that point. It's certainly not a great story to buy into DVC at 150+/pt now to get a place just for visiting elsewhere.

There is always churn in DVC ownership... but the game is bigger than individual owners. And every 'fresh' owner faces 5-10 years before they get to that nirvana point of 'its all gravy from here...'.

Again.. the casino house advantage. Individual people win.. but in the long haul, the house always stays ahead

 

[ParentsOf4]

There is always churn in DVC ownership... but the game is bigger than individual owners. And every 'fresh' owner faces 5-10 years before they get to that nirvana point of 'its all gravy from here...'.

I just have one minor point of clarification on this. (If I correctly understand your point.)

Just recall that a DVC purchase is heavily front loaded. It's the initial buyer who pays Disney. After that, money is transferred from DVC buyer to DVC seller (a.k.a. a resale).

So, for every new membership sold (vs. every new member), it's 5-10 years before that sweet spot is reached. After a membership is 5-10 years old, it's Disney that's losing revenue regardless of how many times a particular membership is resold.

Not sure if that was the point you were trying to make but just wanted to mention it for anyone else trying to keep up with the conversion.

 

[WDW1974]

So, now we're gonna debate DVC value? ... Interesting. Anecdotal evidence mixed with Disney offering HUGE discounts ($245 off a WDW PAP ... $130 off a bi-coastal Premiere ... even $70 off a DL Deluxe) would seem to support the growing mound of evidence that DVCers who don't sell or default are staying away from WDW theme parks. Disney doesn't want 'owners' who use their DVC units as vacation bases to enjoy all the great things to see and do in Central Florida that Dr. Blondie will never be blogging about. Be real.

And speaking of being real, I can't understand all the hate over the (obviously) very poor negotiations that went down between Disney and a trash can when a zoo in a modern, western country slaughtered a healthy two-year-old giraffe, hacked him up in front of children and then fed him to its lions and actually attempts to defend such a process. Grotesque.

As to the premiere of Season 4.2 of Walking Dead (no spoilers for anyone here, please), I'm really not sure my heart is into it, but I'm gonna stick the next seven weeks out and see where it is headed.

 

[John]

I am not a DVC member and I have always enjoyed these conversations, can someone tell me what the initial "buy in" cost are? I get the $150/point. But what the initial cost? I have heard that some are financed and if you can afford it you could pay cash? How much? I am sure for a few free extra FP's I could find out But I want to skip a visit to the kiosk.....if you don't mind.

 

[flynnibus]

I just have one minor point of clarification on this. (If I correctly understand your point.)

I'm not referring to the money paid to Disney... but about the owner's visiting patterns. You said there isn't any barrier for those owners to 'get out'.... I was pointing out that while for YOU... you are in the clear and it's all gravy now... every owner (new OR resale) has to reach that break-even point before they have such luxury.. and once they sell, they can't take it back either. So these are examples of 'lock-in' that DVC membership has compared to open market visitors who have NO ties and can adlib their visits.

While an individual owner may bank, or rent... that 'slot' still gets put to use with a body coming onsite. And while there is a trend of people who achieve 'nirvana' and have cheap rooms.. there is always churn for various reasons. And every time a contract changes hands... the 'lock-in' scale tips towards Disney again for 5-10 years.

My point was... the scale still favors Disney.. even if individuals or groups even are shunning the parks right now. All it takes is those people to sell.. and bam.. Disney is back in the driver's seat. The deck is stacked in Disney's favor in the grander scheme. What they need to worry about is if they can't find buyers (resale or new).. and I think that trend is going to follow the open market trend.

As you said.. the DVC buyer is one that is predisposed to visit Disney... that's a pre-req... DVC's existence doesn't create the pre-req.. so that is the bellweather of most significance. A factor that will hit Disney as a whole before the DVC leakage is more than missed opportunity (IMO).

So, for every new membership sold (vs. every new member), it's 5-10 years before that sweet spot is reached. After a membership is 5-10 years old, it's Disney that's losing revenue regardless of how many times a particular membership is resold.

Not quite.. because of the upsell opportunity. Yes, if every member were to visit religiously to the same schedule without DVC... then Disney would be behind. But we all know that over the whole... that isn't always the case. And every time that contract is resold... that number of points has a new 'break-even' someone is trying to reach.. and hence more incentive to be at WDW.

 

[WDW1974]

What??? What did I miss?

Joy Joy

Don't know that you missed anything. I've just sorta observed that pin mania isn't close to what it was a decade ago and thinking that the OCD hobby is dying way down.

 

[flynnibus]

I am not a DVC member and I have always enjoyed these conversations, can someone tell me what the initial "buy in" cost are? I get the $150/point. But what the initial cost? I have heard that some are financed and if you can afford it you could pay cash? How much? I am sure for a few free extra FP's I could find out But I want to skip a visit to the kiosk.....if you don't mind.

There are closing costs associated with it just like all other real-estate transactions. Deed filing, paperwork, etc.. but in the grand scheme these costs are pretty minor. Sub 1k in costs.. in most scenarios is my understanding. The real significant elements are the point cost, qty, and ongoing dues.

 

[WDW1974]

Have you been back to the Olympic site in Beijing? It's sad how dilapidated they've let the place get. Also there is a "lovely" water park in the cube.

Now the Canadian in me has to vehemently disagree with all of the above. I'm sure the Brits will join me in this one too.

No, I haven't been back to either facility since the Games, but that is par for the course and not unique to Beijing at all. Look at facilities all over the world (including the USA) that have sorta fallen into disrepair or simply being under (or mis) utilized. It happens.

 

[asianway]

There are closing costs associated with it just like all other real-estate transactions. Deed filing, paperwork, etc.. but in the grand scheme these costs are pretty minor. Sub 1k in costs.. in most scenarios is my understanding. The real significant elements are the point cost, qty, and ongoing dues.

Don't forget the loan shark interest rates