The Spirited 8th Wonder (WDW's Future & You!)

[GrammieBee]

Beginning to feel that there is no real place in the "real" vacation world for Disney. I wonder what the percentage of tourists to Hawaii, NOT Aulani but Hawaii for Hawaii, actually vacation to WDW? Probably pretty low I assume.

What percentage of NON-DIsney cruisers go to Disney parks?

Seems like the right strategy for DIsney is to limit DVC to theme park resorts and leave the real world alone.

Depends upon how much of a Disney fan they are. To many people, Disney is but one of their vacation destinations. They like Disney, but also visit other non Disney destinations such as Hawaii, Alaska, Las Vegas, etc., cruise with other cruise lines and may even travel by motor home or with a trailer to visit National Parks.

On the other hand, the true Disney fanatic does not want to go anywhere else except maybe on a Disney cruise ship.

 

[Rodan75]

Personally I would love to see some of DLP's hotel capacity converted into DVC rooms at 'normal' point values as well as well priced DVC capacity in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai. I think that tied with additional investments in related ABD guided trips they could make tidy profits in easing Americans into international travel.

Disney needs to start thinking about the life cycle of vacationing a little more seriously, Orlando is a great jumping off point that can lead to a lot more vacationing with Disney. But you can only do Orlando vacations for so long before you need variety or risk losing the 'magic'.

Addressing that life cycle, IMO, is the key to continued growth and stability.

 

[Mike S]

Personally I would love to see some of DLP's hotel capacity converted into DVC rooms at 'normal' point values as well as well priced DVC capacity in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai. I think that tied with additional investments in related ABD guided trips they could make tidy profits in easing Americans into international travel.

Disney needs to start thinking about the life cycle of vacationing a little more seriously, Orlando is a great jumping off point that can lead to a lot more vacationing with Disney. But you can only do Orlando vacations for so long before you need variety or risk losing the 'magic'.

Addressing that life cycle, IMO, is the key to continued growth and stability.

But if Disney gets more Americans to go to Tokyo they may not want to go back to WDW.

 

[GoofGoof]

Personally I would love to see some of DLP's hotel capacity converted into DVC rooms at 'normal' point values as well as well priced DVC capacity in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai. I think that tied with additional investments in related ABD guided trips they could make tidy profits in easing Americans into international travel.

Disney needs to start thinking about the life cycle of vacationing a little more seriously, Orlando is a great jumping off point that can lead to a lot more vacationing with Disney. But you can only do Orlando vacations for so long before you need variety or risk losing the 'magic'.

Addressing that life cycle, IMO, is the key to continued growth and stability.

It would be nice for DVC owners to be able to trade in to take a once in a lifetime trip to Tokyo or China to see the parks, but you need a base of owners who will visit every year or at least frequently to actually buy the points. I'm not sure what the timeshare market is like in Tokyo, Paris or China, but if they build DVC there it will be to target nearby locals to buy in not to attract Americans to travel abroad to Disney parks.

But if Disney gets more Americans to go to Tokyo they may not want to go back to WDW.

Disney also doesn't own 100% of the foreign parks. They have no economic incentive to lure guests away from WDW or DLR where they get 100% of the money spent to any of the foreign parks where they do not.

 

[Mike S]

Disney also doesn't own 100% of the foreign parks. They have no economic incentive to lure guests away from WDW or DLR where they get 100% of the money spent to any of the foreign parks where they do not.

That's even more true with Tokyo where they don't own any of it. I think they only get licensing fees from OLC but I don't know. At least they own a percentage of Paris, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

 

[Nmoody1]

Personally I would love to see some of DLP's hotel capacity converted into DVC rooms at 'normal' point values as well as well priced DVC capacity in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai. I think that tied with additional investments in related ABD guided trips they could make tidy profits in easing Americans into international travel.

Disney needs to start thinking about the life cycle of vacationing a little more seriously, Orlando is a great jumping off point that can lead to a lot more vacationing with Disney. But you can only do Orlando vacations for so long before you need variety or risk losing the 'magic'.

Addressing that life cycle, IMO, is the key to continued growth and stability.

The Walt Disney Company actually get no money from hotels in Paris due to the licensing agreement... would make it very expensive for hotels that are mediocre - even by Disney standards!

 

[Gipc]

Perhaps if the resorts were more appropriately priced they could fill them, no?

It would be better if average people could actually be able to afford a vacation to WDW....
A room for a night is as much or more than what I pay for my monthly mortgage payment...!!!
I've been putting off & putting off my Disney Vacation for 3 years now because we just cannot afford it...even with staying at a value resort...averaging abt $2000 per person for the entire vacation is hard to come up with when you're paying for 3 or 4 people...

 

[Gipc]

With the outrageous prices for staying on site at Disney whether it is DVC or not, it's no wonder that Disney will be closing up rooms. It seems like that they are now feeling the pressure from the other hotel competitors and don't want to invest heavily into redoing their basic rooms. They rather build DVC rooms and have people continue to pay outrageous prices

I agree that the rooms just simply cost too much...
I can only dream of staying at the Beach Club Resort & NEVER at the Floridian or the Wilderness Lodge....
If I'm EVER able to afford a Disney Vacation, it'll have to be at one of the Value Resorts or the campground/cabins...can't see it happening any other way...even with discounts...which you can never depend on..
If they offered discounts that you can depend on, that might help some...
I can't count on a meal plan discount for when we would be able to go....can't just go at the drop of a hat...have to plan ahead to schedule time off work...having discounts do help, but it doesn't help if you can't count on using one...and if we book our vacation assuming we will hope to find an offer, what happens if we don't get any offer & then can't afford the vacation...another cancellation...!! which we have done twice already....
It's been getting very frustrating just trying to plan our dream vacation...
and their planning system site doesn't let you plan very far into the future...even for just trying to figure out an itinerary....so I am back to doing it by hand with index cards & notebooks...!! so much for technology...!!
Would like to put our vacation ideas into the computer on disney.disney.go, but the system won't even let me plan for later next year...
I have to plan our first vacation like it may be our last, doubt if we will ever be able to go again, with retirement creeping up....we are poor average people....
Anyone else frustrated..??

 

[TeriofTerror]

It would be better if average people could actually be able to afford a vacation to WDW....
A room for a night is as much or more than what I pay for my monthly mortgage payment...!!!
I've been putting off & putting off my Disney Vacation for 3 years now because we just cannot afford it...even with staying at a value resort...averaging abt $2000 per person for the entire vacation is hard to come up with when you're paying for 3 or 4 people...

There's some extremely interesting and insightful information on this topic in @lentesta's 2015 Unofficial Guide. It discusses what percentage of the US population can actually afford a WDW vacation, and compares the price hikes over the last several years to wage increases for the average American. It was a great read and I highly recommend giving it a look. And it was nice to have hard data to confirm what we've all known for some time: TWDC has absolutely no compunctions whatsoever about pricing itself out of the range of the general populace.

 

[Padraig]

It would be better if average people could actually be able to afford a vacation to WDW....
A room for a night is as much or more than what I pay for my monthly mortgage payment...!!!
I've been putting off & putting off my Disney Vacation for 3 years now because we just cannot afford it...even with staying at a value resort...averaging abt $2000 per person for the entire vacation is hard to come up with when you're paying for 3 or 4 people...

Wait, you're paying 6-8 thousands dollars for a Disney trip? I'd like to see a breakdown on your costs because that seems incredibly high for someone who's looking to do a decent affordable WDW visit.

Again, stay off-site. You'll get a better room for a substantially better price. Stay in a Disney affiliate like Holiday Inn, who also provide shuttle buses to the parks.

 

[lentesta]

There's some extremely interesting and insightful information on this topic in @lentesta's 2015 Unofficial Guide. It discusses what percentage of the US population can actually afford a WDW vacation, and compares the price hikes over the last several years to wage increases for the average American. It was a great read and I highly recommend giving it a look. And it was nice to have hard data to confirm what we've all known for some time: TWDC has absolutely no compunctions whatsoever about pricing itself out of the range of the general populace.

Thanks! Here's the section from the book:

RAISE PRICES, RINSE, REPEAT

LONGTIME READERS KNOW that we usually begin this chapter with statistics showing how much more expensive it is to visit Walt Disney World now than in the Good Old Days. For example:

In 1989, a family of four could take a two-night, three-day trip to Walt Disney World, staying at Disney’s Caribbean Beach Resort, for $800 inflation-adjusted dollars, not counting food or transportation. In 2013, the same tickets and hotel cost almost $1,600.

We’ve written about these trends for years. And for years we’ve wondered how long these price increases could continue. For this edition of the Unofficial Guide, we thought we’d find out.

What follows is the spreadsheet equivalent of a back-of-the-napkin calculation about Disney’s prices and who can afford them, based on various US government statistics. If you’re an economist, a stock analyst, or a grad student looking for a research topic, drop us a line and we’ll share the data.

Back to that long weekend at Disney World: The bad news is that it now costs more than an entire year’s travel budget for 80% of US households. If you’re one of the 230 million Americans in a household making less than $100,000 annually, a trip to the World probably isn’t for you.

The good news—for Disney, anyway—is that the top 20% of US households, about 79 million people, spend more on travel each year than the bottom 80% combined: about $3,700, versus $3,200 in 2010. What Disney really cares about is revenue, not attendance, and a pool of 79 million high-spending tourists is a big enough market to fill its parks.

So how much more can Disney charge? After all, every price hike means fewer families can afford to go. Let’s assume that a 5% price increase means the average family has to earn 5% more to pay for the trip. (Actually, it doesn’t, but play along.) Are there enough Americans earning $105,000 who want to visit the World? Yes, per the US Census Bureau. Even if Disney raised prices 10% and targeted only households making $110,000 per year, its revenue would be about the same.

However, 10% is about the limit right now. If Disney marked up its vacations by 15% and targeted only those households making more than $115,000 per year—the top 16%—there aren’t enough Americans with that kind of money to take enough trips to Orlando, and Disney’s revenue would drop. A 20% increase would eliminate 30% of the people in the top-earning US households, and the numbers get uglier from there.

What this means is that you can expect Disney to continue raising prices 2–5% beyond the rate of inflation for the next few years. By the time that strategy runs its course, Disney should have its Avatar-themed land open at Animal Kingdom, which it hopes will draw in folks who’ve saved up for years. The only thing that could derail this plan is—just maybe—a plucky, moderately priced local competitor.

To paraphrase one of Disney’s newest princesses: “Help us, Harry Potter. You’re our only hope.”​

 

[lentesta]

Also, this may be why I don't get invited to media events anymore.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

The good news—for Disney, anyway—is that the top 20% of US households, about 79 million people, spend more on travel each year than the bottom 80% combined: about $3,700, versus $3,200 in 2010. What Disney really cares about is revenue, not attendance, and a pool of 79 million high-spending tourists is a big enough market to fill its parks.

And this doesn't include all those Brazillians, Brits and Canadians who can also pad Disney's numbers.

The end goal is revenue, they don't care if the money comes from Tennessee or Taiwan so long as they get it.

(Not that that's an issue. It only becomes one if the resort isn't equipped to handle large populations who can't speak English or Spanish, which I would suggest all Orlando parks are not to some extent)

 

[ParentsOf4]

As I've posted before, comparing the price of a 1-day tick to Median Household Income:

Single day ticket prices are not the exception. Instead, they are representative of what's happen to all WDW prices.

Does this relate to the original post concerning the conversion of Wilderness Lodge hotel rooms to DVC?

Most definitely yes.

As Disney continues its crazy increases, a shrinking number can actually afford WDW ...

If they pay cash.

How many really can afford last Easter week's starting rack rate of $531/night at the Wilderness Lodge? (Rhetorical question.)

However, if Disney repackages those Wilderness Lodge rooms as timeshares with long-term financing (at 10% to 20% interest rates), then consumers can go even deeper into debt to finance their vacations for the next 40 years.

Back in the good old days, those who worked for Walt & Roy Disney, Donn Tatum, and Card Walker truly believed in providing customers with value for their money.

The only thing today's corporate Disney truly believes in is your money.

 

[Goofyernmost]

As I've posted before, comparing the price of a 1-day tick to Median Household Income:

View attachment 62552


Single day ticket prices are not the exception. Instead, they are representative of what's happen to all WDW prices.

Does this relate to the original post concerning the conversion of Wilderness Lodge hotel rooms to DVC?

Most definitely yes.

As Disney continues its crazy increases, a shrinking number can actually afford WDW ...

If they pay cash.

How many really can afford last Easter week's starting rack rate of $531/night at the Wilderness Lodge? (Rhetorical question.)

However, if Disney repackages those Wilderness Lodge rooms as timeshares with long-term financing (at 10% to 20% interest rates), then consumers can go even deeper into debt to finance their vacations for the next 40 years.

Back in the good old days, those who worked for Walt & Roy Disney, Donn Tatum, and Card Walker truly believed in providing customers with value for their money.

The only thing today's corporate Disney truly believes in is your money.

I do appreciate the effort that you put into all those charts and comparisons. My question is, why does it matter that it increased faster then median income. We're not talking about a necessity, we are talking about a luxury that many people on the planet have been able to do without and not even regret it.

Yes, Disney prices have gone up to the point where it is more difficult to afford, but, so have automobiles, gas, heating fuel, housing, etc.

I can kind of make my own Chart just from what I am required to have.

Automobiles... In 1971 I purchased a new Buick Skylark for $3200.00. 2014 prices for a comparable vehicle equals $42,000.

Fuel for Auto... In 71 the cost for a gallon of gas was approx. $.35 per gallon. Today $3.35 avg per gal.

Heating Oil... in 71 $.25 cents per gal. Today almost $4.00 per gal.

Bought my first 3 bedroom house in 1972 for $25000. Today that same house is $300,000. plus.

Food costs...an avg. of $50.00 per month for two people. Today... close to $400.00 per month for one person.

My point is all these things including Disney charge what they charge. We have a choice for Disney in that we don't have to participate and we will live happily ever after. The rest that I have mentioned are much closer to being necessities, we don't have a choice unless we walk everywhere, live in a warmer climate in a tent on the beach and keep all our possessions in a shopping cart.

I don't get the mentality that Disney somehow owes it to the world that they stay below some level that everyone can afford. There job is to make money and entertain the masses. They do both. Yes, when Walt was in charge it was a lot less expensive, but, so was everything else. In my opinion, it wasn't a bit easier to afford to go to Disney at those rates then it is now. I know my family never went and I know my Father well enough to know that if it was affordable we would have been there.

I know someone will say that I am defending Disney blindly. I am instead pointing out a way of life that we, as a nation, have built for ourselves. Everything is relative, real life or theme park life.

 

[TeriofTerror]

Thanks! Here's the section from the book:

RAISE PRICES, RINSE, REPEAT​

I think the "Back to the Salt Mines" section deserves mention, as well. If I read that part correctly, in the not-so-distant future, the average American will have to work a full 40 hour week just to get a family of five into one of the parks for one day. That was a bit of an eye-opener for me, and something I've been giving a bit of thought to, since.Well-researched, informative, and thought-provoking. Well done, sir!​

 

[TeriofTerror]

I don't get the mentality that Disney somehow owes it to the world that they stay below some level that everyone can afford. There job is to make money and entertain the masses. They do both. Yes, when Walt was in charge it was a lot less expensive, but, so was everything else. In my opinion, it wasn't a bit easier to afford to go to Disney at those rates then it is now. I know my family never went and I know my Father well enough to know that if it was affordable we would have been there.

I know someone will say that I am defending Disney blindly. I am instead pointing out a way of life that we, as a nation, have built for ourselves. Everything is relative, real life or theme park life.

You are right, of course. Disney doesn't owe us anything, and they have the right to charge whatever they'd like.
I hate to invoke the oldest, most over-used argument by far among Disney fans, but I don't think any of us believe that Walt would approve. It really reminds me far more of this guy:
Also, I feel a little like I've been hooked in by a dealer, and now he's jacking up the prices. But that's probably just me.

 

[flynnibus]

I do appreciate the effort that you put into all those charts and comparisons. My question is, why does it matter that it increased faster then median income. We're not talking about a necessity, we are talking about a luxury that many people on the planet have been able to do without and not even regret it.

do you seriously need this broken down to you even further?

The point is to illustrate that not only are prices increasing (you can see this at face value) they are increasing faster than AFFORDABILITY. The whole point is are the price increases altering how and who can visit Disney.

This is why he's comparing against median household income instead of just comparing against the CPI - because it's not about prices vs inflation (as measured by the government) but about prices vs the consumer's ability to buy.

Or to put it in your context... It was a non-essential luxury item... is it an even MORE exclusive luxury item now?

 

[WDW1974]

What were they going to call it? Disney's Actually-in-Newport-Bay Club?

Who knows? But they sold the land (on a cliff overlooking the Pacific, not far from Crystal Cove and absolutely breathtaking) to Marriott, which put an amazing Vacation Club of their own on said land.

I still think selling the land was a HUGE mistake by Disney (and Eisner and the DDC folks). One of many, one of many ...

 

[WDW1974]

A few noted that this was one of the slowest Spirit threads ever. It still reached 97 pages and 195,000 views.

Pretty good for a thread that actually stayed on topic.

Yeah, funny how that happens. I'll gladly take the 'smaller' numbers for a serious discussion that stays largely on point. I wish I had a bit more time for it, but ...