You may be very right from a practical and financial sense. But it won't bring me back to WDW. At their current plans, Universal will bring me back- but it will cost Disney two full days of my trip when they used to have all of them.
Yes, but you're still going to WDW aren't you? Until that stops, WDW will still be the big wheel on the block.
My concern is that both you and Disney executives greatly overestimate "brand loyalty" on the part of vacation guests; Detroit once made the same mistake, and we know how that turned out. Walt Disney World thrives on repeat visitors, yet the Disney parks aren't giving them the new, innovative, and exciting attraction and themed experiences they are looking for. At the same time, there are two or three largely (or wholly) unexplored parks just up I-4, which hold strong appeal, and are in the midst of a rapid growth and expansion similar to that which once drew many new guests to Walt Disney World. Nostalgia is a very powerful motivator, but it only takes you so far; I think we're much closer to the edge of the cliff than you realize.
The perception of Disney parks as the "family destination", and Universal as more for teens and adults, is potentially one of Disney's most serious problems. We've probably all heard of people who erroneously think of the Magic Kingdom as more of a park for kids, which aside from the MK mountains would hold limited appeal for adults (with the inverse possibly true at Epcot). Disney may be able to keep pushing the ball down the road a bit longer, but they need to be very concerned with what Universal (and also central Florida and nationwide tourist destinations) is doing right now. The deeper hole you dig, the longer (and harder) to dig yourself back out.
I don't think that the teens and young adults have ever been what was drawing folks to WDW. When you have a family, you go where the demand is. The younger ones will outweigh the influence of the older ones, especially if the older ones have already been there. The idea that MK is for kids is, of course, still a concern, but, it always has been. Once many people, myself included, brought my kids to WDW, I was hooked as well because then I knew it wasn't just for kids. Universal may very well be exactly what is needed for the adults or adult couples with no children that haven't ever experienced WDW, but that is the way it has been since Uni was first built and especially after IOA was built.
I think that there is a real possibility that one can way underestimate the power and hold of the "Brand Loyalty". This is especially true of a Disney Park. It promises many things and, whether we care to admit it or not, still delivers on many, many of those promises.
Remember I have been a visitor to WDW regularly since 1983. My children have long since grown up and have children of their own. I am still drawn back to the place and my eyes have not gotten completely filled in with pixie dust. They are wide open and I do see the REAL differences between then and now and it isn't what people seem to think it is. I'm also getting older and may or may not be able to go many more times, but, I still do, just like I did when Uni first opened up, share my vacation time between Disney and Uni, as well as Seaworld and a multitude of other places in central Florida. I have no interest in HP at all other then the fact that I would like to see it so I can have a real opinion. I also have 3 grandchildren between the ages of 12 and 14 and absolutely none of them have any interest at all in HP. HP isn't going away, but, like everything else, new things show up and people look in different directions. Uni seems to have a strong edge right now, but, will it stay that way? If history means anything, not to the degree it is right now.
BTW, in the event that people are scratching their heads and wondering exactly what this has to do with DVC's, it is exactly why they are still and will remain a source of revenue to Disney even if they never set foot in a Disney park.