The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...

[Tim G]

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="98%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ff0000><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=large>STORM STATUS</TD><TD class=small align=right>September 11, 1:42 PM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>Name: Hurricane Ivan</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small vAlign=top>Location: About 40 miles, 70 km west-southwest of the western tip of jamaica and 170 miles, 270 km, East-Southeast of Grand Cayman.
Lat/Long: 18.0N, 79.0W
Max Winds: 145 mph
Category: 4
</TD><TD class=small vAlign=top noWrap>Heading: West-Northwest
Speed: 8 mph
Pressure: 27.20 inches
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small align=middle colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 37

Issued at: 1:42 PM EDT 9/11/04


Ivan moving slowly toward the cayman islands

A hurricane warning remains in effect for jamaica and the cayman islands.

A hurricane warning is in effect for cuba from pinar del rio to ciego de avila including the isle of youth. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the rest of cuba. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.

Interests in the northwestern caribbean sea, as well as in the eastern gulf of mexico, should closely monitor the progress of dangerous hurricane ivan.

At 2 pm edt, 1800z, the eye center of hurricane ivan was located near latitude 18.0 north, longitude 79.0 west or about 40 miles, 70 km west-southwest of the western tip of jamaica and 170 miles, 270 km, east-southeast of grand cayman.

Ivan has been drifting betwen the west and west-northwest during the past couple of hours. Ivan should resume a west-northwest track near 8 mph, 13 km/hr later today. On this track, ivan should be moving near or over the cayman islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph, 230 km/hr, with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected, but ivan could become stronger during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles, 75 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, 280 km.

The minimum central pressure recently estimated by a reconnaissance plane was 921 mb, 27.18 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves are occurring primarily along the south coast of jamaica but should begin to subside later today.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 feet, locally higher, above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in cuba.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, possibly causing life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 2 pm edt position, 18.0 n, 79.0 w. Expected movement toward, west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 145 mph. Minimum central pressure, 921 mb.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 5 pm edt.

 

[Tim G]

Update Hurricane Ivan
Atlantic I.R. Satellite Update

Image Delay = 45 Mins.

 

[Tim G]

Update Hurricane Ivan

Caribbean I.R. Satellite Update

Image Delay = 45 mins.

 

[Tim G]

Update Hurricane Ivan

Caribbean Visible Satellite Update

Small Image (Big One Exceeds 1000 KB file Kimit)

Image Delay = 45 Mins.

 

[symbasys]

Hope this helps!

Yes it does! Thanks -- that helps to put it into perspective a little better. The last forecast track has it going even a little further west than the last one. NWS has the sustained winds at 165 mph now and a pressure of 914 mb/26.99 inches ... unbelievable!

 

[RAMBLER5678]

Speck76 were in south Ga so were worried about Ivan.. Could you please tell us were you got that map from ,so we can watch more closly? Thanks

 

[speck76]

www.skeetobite.com The site has a lot of good maps, but I think they only update it once or twice per day.


It looks like the peninsula of Florida is in the clear from Ivan, as each updated forecast is moving the storm further west. Of course, our gain is going to be somebody else's loss.....be prepared and be safe if this storm is headed your way.

 

[Tim G]

Speck76... I've got another one, even more detailed... Do you need it???

 

[speck76]

Another good site is www.flhurricane.com, but it appears to be having issues right now.

 

[PhotoDave219]

It's staying west. I'm sorry for the people in the panhandle but we're tiired of this stuff....

 

[Tim G]

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="98%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ff0000><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=large>STORM STATUS</TD><TD class=small align=right>September 11, 4:33 PM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>Name: Hurricane Ivan</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small vAlign=top>Location: About 145 miles, 235 km, East-Southeast of Grand Cayman.
Lat/Long: 18.2N, 79.3W
Max Winds: 165 mph
Category: 5
</TD><TD class=small vAlign=top noWrap>Heading: West-Northwest
Speed: 9 mph
Pressure: 26.99 inches</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 38

Issued at: 4:33 PM EDT 9/11/04


Ivan regains category five hurricane strength, heading toward the cayman islands and western cuba,

A hurricane warning remains in effect for jamaica and the cayman islands.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for cuba from pinar del rio to ciego de avila including the isle of youth. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A hurricane watch remains in effect for the rest of cuba. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.

Interests in the northwestern caribbean sea, as well as in the eastern gulf of mexico, should closely monitor the progress of dangerous hurricane ivan.

At 5 pm edt, 2100z, the well-defined eye of hurricane ivan was located near latitude 18.2 north, longitude 79.3 west or about 145 miles, 235 km, east-southeast of grand cayman.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph, 15 km/hr. On this track, ivan should be moving near or over the cayman islands on Sunday.
A reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 mph, 270 km/hr, with higher gusts. This makes ivan an extremely dangerous category five hurricane on the saffir/simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles, 95 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles, 280 km.
Minimum central pressure recently estimated by a reconnaissance plane was 914 mb, 26.99 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet, locally higher, above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, possibly causing life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, can be expected along the path of Ivan.

Repeating the 5 pm edt position, 18.2 n, 79.3 w. Movement toward, west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 165 mph. Minimum central pressure, 914 mb.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 8 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 11 pm edt.

 

[Tim G]

Update Hurricane Ivan
Atlantic I.R. Satellite Update

Image Delay = 30 Mins.
<!-- / message --><!-- attachments -->

 

[Tim G]

Update Hurricane Ivan

Caribbean I.R. Satellite Update

Image Delay = 30 mins.
<!-- / message --><!-- attachments -->

 

[Maria]

That thing is huge! Supermarkets are packed here with people buying stuff to prevent from Ivan to hit us. I see it´s moving very slowly and reminds me of Isidore two years ago that was 'parked' on top of the peninsula for almost ten hours! God help us with this one...

 

[Tim G]

Some people are talking about, the storm going west...

For me it's seeing is believing... and even then...
It still could change course... Í've become very sceptic after Frances...

 

[Atta83]

We are watching it closely at my house. My dad started to get things ready, he said you never know. But everyone should be getting ready just in case the worst should happen.

 

[Tim G]

Update Hurricane Ivan

Hurricane Ivan Regains Category 5 Strength

Ivan Death Toll Still Rising


UPDATED: 5:51 PM EDT September 11, 2004


KEY WEST, Fla. -- Hurricane Ivan has gotten stronger in the last few hours, with winds increasing to 165 mph, making it an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane, up from a Category 4 earlier Saturday.

The number of deaths across the Caribbean blamed on Hurricane Ivan is now at least 50.
Grenada alone is reporting 34 deaths, with eight more bodies found Saturday. Five people were killed in Jamaica, the latest island to feel Ivan's fury.
Driving rain and winds near 155 mph pounded Jamaica, washing away homes and tearing roofs off houses and trees from the ground. There has been sporadic looting and gunfire in the Jamaican capital.

In Kingston, people carried away cardboard boxes of groceries from a smashed storefront. The road to the airport is a muddy river strewn with refrigerators, downed trees and traffic lights.
Officials in Jamaica are trying to clear roads leading to an eastern region that's believed to be the hardest hit.

Deaths from Ivan have also been reported in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, Barbados and Tobago.
The storm shifted to the west as it hit Jamaica, sparing the island the brunt of its force. Still, the storm lashed the island with giant waves, powerful winds and pounding rains.

Jamaican Prime Minister P.J. Patterson declared a public emergency Friday. He pleaded with the 500,000 people considered in danger to get to shelters. Many residents, however, refused to leave, fearing their homes would be robbed.
Tourists in Jamaica are trying to get out of the area. Many of them spent the night at airports. Crews are boarding up windows, and residents are stocking up on supplies.
Meanwhile, Cuba declared a hurricane watch across the entire island after its leader, Fidel Castro, went on national television warning residents to brace themselves.


Ivan Already Causing Problems In Florida

The Florida Keys are mostly deserted as the state braces for the possible arrival of Hurricane Ivan.
Officials say they're planning to use air and sea routes to get relief supplies to the low-lying island chain if connecting bridges are damaged.

Hurricane Ivan has wobbled a bit westward, giving storm-weary Florida a glimmer of hope. But the 100-mile-long Keys remain mostly boarded up with residents and tourists well on their way to safety.
Forecasters say Ivan could hit the Keys directly on Monday, then move north on the Gulf of Mexico. It could hit north Florida sometime Tuesday.

Tourists and residents in the Florida Keys are taking different approaches on how to survive Hurricane Ivan.
Many fleeing the storm are finding the going rough. The lone highway that leads to the mainland is crowded with cars.
Others are boarding up their windows and stocking up on canned food in a effort to ride out the storm.

Both groups are experiencing what can only be described as hurricane fatigue.
A female business owner said after hurricanes Charley and Frances, "It's like, 'Oh, please leave us alone. No more storms."
Ivan is expected to arrive in the Keys on Monday. Its top sustained winds are reaching 155 mph


Path Of The Storm

At 5 p.m., the eye of the storm was located near latitude 18.2 north, longitude 79.3 west or about 145 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. On this track, Ivan should be moving near or over the Cayman Islands on Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet, locally higher, above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Cuba.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches, possibly causing life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, can be expected along the path of Ivan.
The eye of the hurricane is slowly beginning to move away from Jamaica, though strong winds should continue for several more hours.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
A hurricane warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to Ciego de Avila, including the Isle of Youth. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A hurricane watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.


Bush May Seek Billions More For Hurricane Relief

President Bush may be asking for another $3 billion for Florida hurricane relief, but it may get bogged down by lawmakers wanting money for their own states.

Bush could be asking as early as Monday for the funds that would be primarily for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. It helps individuals, state and local governments cope with disasters.
The new package may have money for NASA, which sustained damage at the Kennedy Space Center, the Agriculture Department and other federal agencies.

The money would pay for recovery efforts from hurricanes Charley and Frances, which lashed Florida within the last month. The tab could increase with Hurricane Ivan, which could hit Florida as early as Monday.

 

[RAMBLER5678]

Thanks everyone for the sites you gave me. There alot more detailed than the other sites Ive been looking at.

 

[NemoRocks78]

I'm just glad that this one isn't coming here....if it was, we were going to get on a flight to Boston. Frances was enough.

Thanks to Frances, school is out until September 20th for me.....

 

[Tenny317]

Yea i'm supposed to be flying down to florida from NY on wednesday. What are the possibilities of me getting there on wed.