The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...

M

Mr D

New Member
20.jpg


Lastly we have a water content image, this shows how much water is actually in the storm and creates propagation or in essense how it feeds itself, its like looking at a smashed mosquito that just had its fill from a customer, its holding currently more moisture than Frances did 24 hours ago.
In analyses it is growing and unless it makes a turn over the Yucatan peninsula and gets over on dry land its doubtful there will be any signs of any weakening for about 48 hours or so is my guess, BTW meteorology is a week hobby of mine, my speculations are just that and are for individual use and speculation.
 
Shrike

Shrike

New Member
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON SEP 06 2004

...IVAN A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL DANGEROUS...COULD RESTRENGTHEN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES...
490 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH ...35
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
NEAR OR OVER SOME OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...11.6 N... 55.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS OF 94
KT AND 87 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS
RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KT...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THEY MEASURED BY
DROPSONDE...969 MB. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS SLIGHTLY LOWER SINCE THE DROPSONDE SHOWED WINDS OVER 20 KT WHEN
IT HIT THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING THAT IT WAS NOT IN THE CENTER OF
THE EYE. SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE...AND
THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. WE SEE NO
REASON WHY IVAN COULD NOT RESTRENGTHEN VERY SOON...AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION...285/19...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IT WAS
EARLIER TODAY. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
CURRENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL
CONSENSUS...CONU...HAS BEEN SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST
TODAY...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...IN THE 4-5 DAY TIME
FRAME...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN FRANCES...OR ITS REMNANTS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND IVAN. IF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS
IS LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA...IVAN COULD VEER TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS SIMPLY TOO
EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC REGARDING THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE
UNITED STATES COAST.
 
M

Mr D

New Member
20.jpg


While I am still here I just thought to post this image, these are NOT animated loops that take a while to load up especially for those on dialup connections.
This is a surface wind image just like the others, the darker the color (black being severe) shows the wind speed, if you look closely up in the upper left corner of all these images you can compare Ivan to Frances.
 
Tim G

Tim G

Well-Known Member
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="98%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ff0000><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=large>STORM STATUS</TD><TD class=small align=right>September 6, 4:40 PM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>Name: Hurricane Ivan</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small vAlign=top>Location: About 305 miles, 490 km, East-Southeast of Barbados.
Lat/Long: 11.6N, 55.3W
Max Winds: 105 mph
Category: 2
</TD><TD class=small vAlign=top noWrap>Heading: West-Northwest
Speed: 22 mph
Pressure: 28.59 inches
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small align=middle colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Atlantic IR Radar

Image = 70 Mins. Delay
 

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Tim G

Tim G

Well-Known Member
Mr D said:
20.jpg


Lastly we have a water content image, this shows how much water is actually in the storm and creates propagation or in essense how it feeds itself, its like looking at a smashed mosquito that just had its fill from a customer, its holding currently more moisture than Frances did 24 hours ago.
In analyses it is growing and unless it makes a turn over the Yucatan peninsula and gets over on dry land its doubtful there will be any signs of any weakening for about 48 hours or so is my guess, BTW meteorology is a week hobby of mine, my speculations are just that and are for individual use and speculation.
Click to expand...
GREAT PIC !!!
 
Tim G

Tim G

Well-Known Member
Hurricane Ivan On Path That Could Threaten Florida


6:18 pm EDT September 6, 2004


MIAMI -- A weaker Hurricane Ivan is spinning about 305 miles southeast of the Caribbean island of Barbados with 105-mile-per-hour winds on a path that could bring it near Florida.

The long-range forecast has it sitting on the north coast of Cuba Saturday.

Hurricane warnings already are up for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Grenada and the Grenadines. There's a hurricane watch for Martinique.

Hurricane Ivan is moving west-northwest at 22 miles an hour, and that's expected to stay the same for the next day. Top sustained winds remain at about 125 miles an hour, with some strengthening expected.

Forecasters say they're not sure which track Ivan might take by the end of the week. Some forecast models show it going south of Cuba, while others show it going over Cuba or even north of Cuba. It's also not clear how much its power might be affected by mountains if it goes over Hispaniola.
 
M

Mr D

New Member
Thanks Corrus, inasmuch as what we are looking in these images and for all the media coverage that we have seen from both Charley and Frances its not too soon to prepare even more thoroughly just in case that Ivan makes a three tap hit upon Florida.
And for the many that had their vacation interrupted by the recent events its not premature, at least for me anyway to suggest not making any "concrete" travel/housing commitments in the next week. As is the case of any hurricane or tropical storm that approaces the CONUS it affects many areas of transportation, airlines,trains, bus and car. As example gas is in shortage in Fla currently, many areas surrounding MCO are flooded, trees and powerlines are down, these things will take days to even partially cleanup.
Sure folks could possibly fly into Orlando now and visit the parks but if you do read about what guests had to put up with, like cold foods for over 24 hours, stuck in a room watching Brother bear, over and over... :lol:

My advice is to wait at least until thursday and see what the 3 day storm path prediction is then. if this storm (Ivan) is at least category 1 and near Cuba then there is a fair chance of it coming into Florida and heaping further wind damage and rain on already saturated ground. When I was living in Houston back in '93 and was quite literally "in the eye" of Alicia the most damage was from 100 year old trees that had the tap roots deep pulled up because of a heavy 3 day thunderstorm the week before Alicia barreled through, and thats what will happen if there is another dose of 50+mph winds.

On the flip side, the lines should be short in the parks! :D
 
speck76

speck76

Well-Known Member
Wtnt44 Knhc 062048
Tcdat4
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 18
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Pm Edt Mon Sep 06 2004

The Hurricane Hunters Found Peak Flight Level...700 Mb...winds Of 94
Kt And 87 Kt Over The Northwest And Northeast Quadrants
Respectively. This Supports A Current Intensity Of 90 Kt...which Is
Consistent With The Minimum Central Pressure They Measured By
Dropsonde...969 Mb. The Central Pressure Estimate For This Advisory
Is Slightly Lower Since The Dropsonde Showed Winds Over 20 Kt When
It Hit The Surface...suggesting That It Was Not In The Center Of
The Eye. Satellite Images Depict A Well-organized Hurricane...and
The Upper-tropospheric Outflow Remains Impressive. We See No
Reason Why Ivan Could Not Restrengthen Very Soon...and This Is
Reflected In The Official Forecast.

Initial Motion...285/19...is Not Much Different From What It Was
Earlier Today. The Hurricane Should Continue To Be Steered
West-northwestward By A Strong Easterly To East-southeasterly
Current For The Next Few Days. The Dynamical Track Model
Consensus...conu...has Been Shifting A Little To The West
Today...so The Official Forecast Is Also Shifted A Little To The
Left Of The Previous One. However...in The 4-5 Day Time
Frame...there Is A Lot Of Uncertainty As To How Much Mid-level
Ridging Will Develop Between Frances...or Its Remnants Over The
East-central United States...and Ivan. If A Significant Weakness
Is Left In The Vicinity Of Florida...ivan Could Veer Toward The
Bahamas Near The End Of The Forecast Period. it Is Simply Too
Early To Be More Specific Regarding The Potential Threat To The
United States Coast.

Based On The Aircraft Data...the Wind Radii Have Been Adjusted To
Show A More Asymmetric Circulation.
 
M

Mr D

New Member
Tropical Prediction Center is where these images plus current and historical archives are available, most of this data is in its raw form and is then translated into "humaneeze" by the local weathermen. As a pilot in Alaska we use this info religously and afterawhile it tends to make sense, sorta :animwink:
 
M

Mr D

New Member
I'm willing to bet anyone living IN Florida isn't going to laugh off Ivan, moreso there will be more lines at the hardware stores, massive plywood shortage, long lines at the few gas stations that are probably not yet getting fuel delivered. Myself being 5200 miles from this makes me even nervous. I am planning soon for yet another extended stay in the Orlando area possibly this next winter as I usually do every year or so, this time I am ready to possibly buy another home as my current one is finally paid for and I have resources, so I'm concerned just as much, I like Florida very much though Alaska is my refuge.
Its a little sad to think its even possible that tragedy can repeat itself but many things are different, global warming has a lot to do with many areas of the earth, up here in Alaska we have had near draught conditions and higher than normal temps all summer long, I cannot imagine what our next winter will be, last winter was heavier than normal snowfall and warmer temps. These storms coming into play in the Western Atlantic/Gulf may just be the beginning of a cycle that could last for a couple of years. And unless there is a use of technology to steer these or degrade them all should be treated with due respect, because statistics show historically Florida recieves landfal of over 35% of all hurricanes since the start of recordkeeping.

OTOH we could just go to TokyoDisneySea....but they get typhoons as well!
 
speck76

speck76

Well-Known Member
Mr D said:
I'm willing to bet anyone living IN Florida isn't going to laugh off Ivan, moreso there will be more lines at the hardware stores, massive plywood shortage, long lines at the few gas stations that are probably not yet getting fuel delivered. Myself being 5200 miles from this makes me even nervous. I am planning soon for yet another extended stay in the Orlando area possibly this next winter as I usually do every year or so, this time I am ready to possibly buy another home as my current one is finally paid for and I have resources, so I'm concerned just as much, I like Florida very much though Alaska is my refuge.
Its a little sad to think its even possible that tragedy can repeat itself but many things are different, global warming has a lot to do with many areas of the earth, up here in Alaska we have had near draught conditions and higher than normal temps all summer long, I cannot imagine what our next winter will be, last winter was heavier than normal snowfall and warmer temps. These storms coming into play in the Western Atlantic/Gulf may just be the beginning of a cycle that could last for a couple of years. And unless there is a use of technology to steer these or degrade them all should be treated with due respect, because statistics show historically Florida recieves landfal of over 35% of all hurricanes since the start of recordkeeping.

OTOH we could just go to TokyoDisneySea....but they get typhoons as well!
Click to expand...

Living in Florida, we have to keep a minds eye on the weather, not just the hurricanes, but the everyday weather. FL has more lightning than any one place on earth. and has more deaths by lightning too. The trick is to be smart, we can not live our lives being afraid of every afternoon storm (which many would be considered "severe" in most parts or the world), nor can we be freaked out by every tropical weather system that develops in the ocean.

Be Smart

Be Prepared
 
Atta83

Atta83

Well-Known Member
I just hope people will start to buy supplies earlier than they did with the other two storms, even if they do not use it they will have supplies for the next year.
 
PhotoDave219

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
I'm not laughing it off, nor am i not taking it seriously.

I know the time to go get gas, i know the time to go get supplies. I wont panic until i have to.

As speck said, we're always looking at the sky for storms. Francis was just long and annoying. Charley was one bad, fast moving storm. Three hours of sheer terror (or was it the six hours without my roommate shutting up?)

Ivan? Who knows. Just need to keep topping off the gas tank when i can, restocking the PB&J, etc.
 
Atta83

Atta83

Well-Known Member
PhotoDave219 said:
I'm not laughing it off, nor am i not taking it seriously.

I know the time to go get gas, i know the time to go get supplies. I wont panic until i have to.

As speck said, we're always looking at the sky for storms. Francis was just long and annoying. Charley was one bad, fast moving storm. Three hours of sheer terror (or was it the six hours without my roommate shutting up?)

Ivan? Who knows. Just need to keep topping off the gas tank when i can, restocking the PB&J, etc.
Click to expand...


Did you take my advice LOL JK.... :king:
 
DDuckFan130

DDuckFan130

Well-Known Member
Mr D said:
I'm willing to bet anyone living IN Florida isn't going to laugh off Ivan, moreso there will be more lines at the hardware stores, massive plywood shortage, long lines at the few gas stations that are probably not yet getting fuel delivered. Myself being 5200 miles from this makes me even nervous. I am planning soon for yet another extended stay in the Orlando area possibly this next winter as I usually do every year or so, this time I am ready to possibly buy another home as my current one is finally paid for and I have resources, so I'm concerned just as much, I like Florida very much
Click to expand...

This reminds me of what the news have been saying about us in South Florida. Despite the long lines to get plywood and the long lines to get gas, we're taking it in stride. Of course it can get irritable and nerve wrecking at times. But for the most part, we can have a somewhat good attitude and about all this because we know what it's like to go through everything from a summer thunderstorm to a category 4 hurricane. As long as we're prepared and alert/cautious (not paranoid), we should be fine. Of course I do feel for the procrastinators because we have been guilty of that at some point. This time we took our time putting up the plywood and finished with plenty of time. And as for Ivan, we're leaving the damn plywood up for whatever happens. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best- that's what I've heard all weekend and it definitely applies in these times.

Excuse my incessant rambling I'll :zipit: .
 

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