chucknstuff
Active Member
I use to live in pinellas park for 20 years...and after 12 years in the Air Force... I got stuck in Jersey :brick: :brick:Moonshadow1 said:
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The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...
- Thread starter FamilyMan
- Start date
patelaine1953
New Member
I just logged into NOAA and it looks like Ivan is definitely going to miss FL. I think our prayers for the moment have been answered. I don't want to fly in really rough weather. My daughter is panicked as it is without turbulence. She is so scared, she won't even discuss the trip at all. By the way, she's not a kid; she's 25. The 10 yr. old girl coming with us is more excited than my daughter. At least she isn't afraid to fly.
*MichelleP*
Member
Patelaine1953-
The 11 o'clock certainly looked that way. The 5 am is not really what we on the Gulf Coast of Florida are looking for...It's a long way away, that's for sure, but we're not out of the woods yet!
The 11 o'clock certainly looked that way. The 5 am is not really what we on the Gulf Coast of Florida are looking for...It's a long way away, that's for sure, but we're not out of the woods yet!
Hurricane IVAN
000
Wtnt44 Knhc 070900
Tcdat4
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 20
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Tue Sep 07 2004
Air Force Recon Indicates That Ivan Has And Is Becoming Better
Organized...which Is Also Supported By The Drastically Improved
Appearance In Satellite Imagery. Recon Reports Indicate An Inner
Concentric Eyewall Has Almost Completely Decayed While A New Outer
Eyewall Has Stabilized At Around 20 Nmi Diameter. The Highest 700
Mb Flight-level Wind Reported So Far Has Been 107 Kt In The
Northwest Quadrant. A Dropsonde In The Same Area Indicated 137 Kt
Winds At 953 Mb...but This Is Believed To Be A Wind Gust. However
...the Overall Vertical Wind Profile Clearly Revealed That Ivan Is
Is Becoming Much Better Organized As Compared To Just 6 Hours Ago.
The Initial Motion Is 280/16. Reconnaissance And Satellite Position
Estimates Indicate That Ivan Has Slowed Its Forward Speed Somewhat.
A Noaa Gulfstream-iv Jet Performed A Surveillance Flight Around The
Periphery Of Ivan Late Yesterday Evening Which Had A Significant
Impact On The 00z Model Runs. Most Of The Nhc Model Guidance Is
Tightly Clustered About A West-northwestward Motion With A Gradual
Decrease In Forward Speed Through 72 Hours As Ivan Moves Around The
Southwest Periphery Of The Strong Subtropical Ridge To The North Of
The Caribbean Islands. However...after That The Models Begin To
Diverge Enough For Already Storm Weary People In Florida To Be
Concerned About. The Gfdl Has Been Very Consistent With A Track
Between Haiti And Jamaica And Across Southeastern Cuba. The New 00z
Gfs Run Now Has A More Realistic Tropical Cyclone Vortex In The
Model Initialization...and It Has Shifted Its Track More To The
East Or Right Of The Previous Runs. This Is Also Consistent With
The Latest Nogaps And Gfdn Models. The Ukmet Appears To Be The Only
Outlier At 96hr And 120hr By Taking Ivan West-northwestward Toward
Western Cuba. This Seems Unlikely Given That All Of The Models ...
Including The Ukmet...gradually Build A Strong High Amplitude
High/ridge Across The Central U.s. And Mexico And Into The Western
Gulf Of Mexico By 120 Hours That Should Act To Block Any Westward
Motion Into The Central And Western Gulf. In Response To The
Western U.s. Ridging ...a Broad Trough Is Forecast To Remain In The
Wake Of Frances Across The Southeastern U.s. And The Central And
Eastern Gulf Of Mexico...which Unfortunately Opens The Door For
Ivan To Possibly Slow And Move More Northward By 120hr Across
Central Cuba. The Official Forecast Track Is Close To The Previous
Track Through 72 Hours...and Then To The Right Of Track After That
...which Is Consistent With The Guna And Guns Consensus Models.
Ivan Is Forecast To Move Over Progressively Warmer Water...reaching
Near 30c Water In 72hr. Give The Current And Forecast Outflow
Pattern To Remain Quite Impressive...then At Least Steady
Intensification Appears To Be In Order. If The Outflow On The West
Side Of Ivan Taps Into The Mid-/upper-level Low To The West Over
The Central Caribbean Sea...then Rapid Intensification Could Occur.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast Positions And Max Winds
Initial 07/0900z 11.4n 58.5w 95 Kt
12hr Vt 07/1800z 12.0n 61.2w 105 Kt
24hr Vt 08/0600z 13.0n 64.5w 110 Kt
36hr Vt 08/1800z 14.2n 67.6w 115 Kt
48hr Vt 09/0600z 15.5n 70.5w 120 Kt
72hr Vt 10/0600z 18.0n 75.5w 120 Kt
96hr Vt 11/0600z 20.5n 79.0w 120 Kt
120hr Vt 12/0600z 23.0n 81.0w 100 Kt...inland
000
Wtnt44 Knhc 070900
Tcdat4
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 20
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Tue Sep 07 2004
Air Force Recon Indicates That Ivan Has And Is Becoming Better
Organized...which Is Also Supported By The Drastically Improved
Appearance In Satellite Imagery. Recon Reports Indicate An Inner
Concentric Eyewall Has Almost Completely Decayed While A New Outer
Eyewall Has Stabilized At Around 20 Nmi Diameter. The Highest 700
Mb Flight-level Wind Reported So Far Has Been 107 Kt In The
Northwest Quadrant. A Dropsonde In The Same Area Indicated 137 Kt
Winds At 953 Mb...but This Is Believed To Be A Wind Gust. However
...the Overall Vertical Wind Profile Clearly Revealed That Ivan Is
Is Becoming Much Better Organized As Compared To Just 6 Hours Ago.
The Initial Motion Is 280/16. Reconnaissance And Satellite Position
Estimates Indicate That Ivan Has Slowed Its Forward Speed Somewhat.
A Noaa Gulfstream-iv Jet Performed A Surveillance Flight Around The
Periphery Of Ivan Late Yesterday Evening Which Had A Significant
Impact On The 00z Model Runs. Most Of The Nhc Model Guidance Is
Tightly Clustered About A West-northwestward Motion With A Gradual
Decrease In Forward Speed Through 72 Hours As Ivan Moves Around The
Southwest Periphery Of The Strong Subtropical Ridge To The North Of
The Caribbean Islands. However...after That The Models Begin To
Diverge Enough For Already Storm Weary People In Florida To Be
Concerned About. The Gfdl Has Been Very Consistent With A Track
Between Haiti And Jamaica And Across Southeastern Cuba. The New 00z
Gfs Run Now Has A More Realistic Tropical Cyclone Vortex In The
Model Initialization...and It Has Shifted Its Track More To The
East Or Right Of The Previous Runs. This Is Also Consistent With
The Latest Nogaps And Gfdn Models. The Ukmet Appears To Be The Only
Outlier At 96hr And 120hr By Taking Ivan West-northwestward Toward
Western Cuba. This Seems Unlikely Given That All Of The Models ...
Including The Ukmet...gradually Build A Strong High Amplitude
High/ridge Across The Central U.s. And Mexico And Into The Western
Gulf Of Mexico By 120 Hours That Should Act To Block Any Westward
Motion Into The Central And Western Gulf. In Response To The
Western U.s. Ridging ...a Broad Trough Is Forecast To Remain In The
Wake Of Frances Across The Southeastern U.s. And The Central And
Eastern Gulf Of Mexico...which Unfortunately Opens The Door For
Ivan To Possibly Slow And Move More Northward By 120hr Across
Central Cuba. The Official Forecast Track Is Close To The Previous
Track Through 72 Hours...and Then To The Right Of Track After That
...which Is Consistent With The Guna And Guns Consensus Models.
Ivan Is Forecast To Move Over Progressively Warmer Water...reaching
Near 30c Water In 72hr. Give The Current And Forecast Outflow
Pattern To Remain Quite Impressive...then At Least Steady
Intensification Appears To Be In Order. If The Outflow On The West
Side Of Ivan Taps Into The Mid-/upper-level Low To The West Over
The Central Caribbean Sea...then Rapid Intensification Could Occur.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast Positions And Max Winds
Initial 07/0900z 11.4n 58.5w 95 Kt
12hr Vt 07/1800z 12.0n 61.2w 105 Kt
24hr Vt 08/0600z 13.0n 64.5w 110 Kt
36hr Vt 08/1800z 14.2n 67.6w 115 Kt
48hr Vt 09/0600z 15.5n 70.5w 120 Kt
72hr Vt 10/0600z 18.0n 75.5w 120 Kt
96hr Vt 11/0600z 20.5n 79.0w 120 Kt
120hr Vt 12/0600z 23.0n 81.0w 100 Kt...inland
Here we have a more infrared enchanced image where warmer waters are relative to Ivans direction that allow for storm propagation and intensity. On its current track the waters are not excessively warm but if a more northern or NNW course coreection developes the storm will traverse the area shaded in the warmer coloured hues east of Cuba. If that happens I expect to see explosive growth and expansion.
walts son 1971
Account Suspended
Just wondering why the news people think they need to stand out in the rain and report the storm damage.I personally dont care if they report from a building or inside a car.Watching some person standing there bairly able to stand being pelted by rain is stuped.Sorry I needed to vent about this.
kevmagkingdom
Account Suspended
Guys, I just saw Ivan on the news. It only may hit Florida.
According to them it will get Barbados but after that IT's anyone's guess so it could go to China for all we know.
So let's calm down and foucs on cleanin' up Frances, before we go jumping to conclusions when Ivan is far away still and MAY NOT EVEN HIT.
Just my thoughts but you guys already hate me, so **shrugs**
According to them it will get Barbados but after that IT's anyone's guess so it could go to China for all we know.
So let's calm down and foucs on cleanin' up Frances, before we go jumping to conclusions when Ivan is far away still and MAY NOT EVEN HIT.
Just my thoughts but you guys already hate me, so **shrugs**
kevmagkingdom
Account Suspended
Well my thread "Stitch is NOT an E-Ticket" didnt go over well. They don't all hate me but I got alot of red reputation thingies (I don't get what that means,) and they act like I'm so rude for expressing an opinion on the Stitch show which I think is just not an E Ticket (or barely one). Stitch has *no* lasting appeal. Just my thoughts.
Don't rant that I said that stuff.
Don't rant that I said that stuff.
speck76
Well-Known Member
patelaine1953 said:
It is WAY to early to tell either way.
This is the first year that the NOAA has used 5-day forecast models, in fact, the official forecast is only a 3 day forecast model. The reliability of the 5-day model is very low, and the fact that the 5 day model puts the storm around Cuba, it is too early to tell how/if the storm will effect Florida.
One thing is certain
The storm will do one of the following things.
1. Break apart
2. Come ashore between Mexico and Greenland
3. Blow out to the middle of the Atlantic
PurpleFigment
New Member
People are nuts!
Because the station's ratings go up higher and higher the more rain that is falling during the live shot. It's totally true. People watch more local news during a bad storm, giving the stations time to win new viewers. If there are five local stations (NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX and WB) and two of them have reporters standing in the middle of a trailer park in a torrential downpour and the other three have their reporters in the studio, studies have shown that about 80% of viewers will switch to the stations with the reporters being blown away and drowned. Human's like to see tragedy...why, I don't know...but until they change, I've got 6 reporters I'm putting out in horrid rain during a hurricane (with safety precautions carefully followed, of course).
walts son 1971 said:
Because the station's ratings go up higher and higher the more rain that is falling during the live shot. It's totally true. People watch more local news during a bad storm, giving the stations time to win new viewers. If there are five local stations (NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX and WB) and two of them have reporters standing in the middle of a trailer park in a torrential downpour and the other three have their reporters in the studio, studies have shown that about 80% of viewers will switch to the stations with the reporters being blown away and drowned. Human's like to see tragedy...why, I don't know...but until they change, I've got 6 reporters I'm putting out in horrid rain during a hurricane (with safety precautions carefully followed, of course).
Ivan??? Yikes!
My family leaves for WDW 9/12. This is our FIRST trip to Disney and I'm worried that we should postpone with all the hurriances/ storms. I'm trying not to completely FREAKOUT
as I've been planning this for over a year but it's getting difficult! 
I need reassurance!!!
My family leaves for WDW 9/12. This is our FIRST trip to Disney and I'm worried that we should postpone with all the hurriances/ storms. I'm trying not to completely FREAKOUT
as I've been planning this for over a year but it's getting difficult! I need reassurance!!!
barnum42
New Member
Nobody can give you a cast iron guarentee where Ivan will go. But it is further South than the last two so it is not as likely to hit. But it's too soon to tell. I had to delay my deaprture twice due to Frances and I'm not going to do it again - I'm flying out on Friday and going to enjoy myself.Underdog said:My family leaves for WDW 9/12. This is our FIRST trip to Disney and I'm worried that we should postpone with all the hurriances/ storms. I'm trying not to completely FREAKOUT
kevmagkingdom
Account Suspended
We don't know where Ivan will go. So by 9/12 I'd expect it'd either be hitting Florida or have missed Florida. It's a hit or miss. So, go with your gut.
kevmagkingdom
Account Suspended
Disney's always MORE than you've ever dreamed! It exceeds my expectations always, even tho I've gone a few times.
Hope you have a gr8 trip!
Hope you have a gr8 trip!