The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...

[Atta83]

OK first of all no one said Ivan was going to hit Orlando again! Yes, I have seen the projected parths but those really do not mean anything. I mean look where they had Charley and Frances going. Every one in the gulf or mexico and florida should watch this one closely. He could go anywhere.

 

[mkt]

again though, just in CASE ivan comes here,

I'm still searching for a Midwest, West-Coast, or Canadian WDWMagic member to give me a lift from whatever airport I end up at

I'm not too picky as to where I will go to avoid this little drizzle

 

[Erika]

This sucks. Hurricanes just frigging suck!!!!!!!!!! Three Hurricanes, 4 weeks.

The weather has been really strange this year. Up in Illinois, we got hit with all kinds of storms in the spring, almost daily- way more than usual. Then most of the summer the weather was cold... I'm not looking forward to the winter. The elderly folks are all predicting mild temps with a LOT of snow. They tend to be right about these things!

Hang tight down there! Hopefully this one passes you by.

 

[FamilyMan]

---Begin NHC Update---

...dangerous Hurricane Headed For The Windward Islands...

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Government Of Barbados Has Issued A
Hurricane Warning For Barbados...st. Vincent And The Grenadines.

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Government Of St. Lucia Has Issued A
Hurricane Warning For St. Lucia.

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Government Of Trinidad Has Issued A
Hurricane Warning For Grenada And Its Dependencies And A Tropical
Storm Warning For Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For Tobago.

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For Martinique.

Interests Elsewhere In The Lesser Antilles Should Monitor The
Progress Of Ivan.

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Center Of Hurricane Ivan Was Located Near
Latitude 11.2 North...longitude 53.4 West Or About 435 Miles...
700 Km...east-southeast Of Barbados.

Ivan Is Moving Toward The West Near 22 Mph ...35 Km/hr...and A
Westward To West-northwestward Motion Is Expected Over The Next 24
Hours. On This Track The Center Of The Hurricane Will Be
Approaching The Islands In The Warning Area Tomorrow Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 125 Mph...205 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Increase In Strength Is Possible During The Next
24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles... 55 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 140 Miles...220 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 955 Mb...28.20 Inches.

Repeating The 11 Am Ast Position...11.2 N... 53.4 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 22 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...125 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure... 955 Mb.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...please Monitor
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Office.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 2 Pm Ast Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 5 Pm
Ast.

---End Update---

 

[Shrike]

For some very interesting hurricane information and discussion, check out http://www.stormtrack.org/. It's a site by and for storm chasers, and provides an interesting perspective from those insane folks.

 

[General Grizz]

You know, if Ivan hits Central Florida from South Florida, I don't think we'll experience that much. First, it has to cross through the Dominican Republic and mountain-filled Haiti (which will severely reduce the windpower of the storms). It will be unfortunate for these countries and especially Cuba and South Florida, but I honestly don't think it will have as much as a widespread impact over Central Florida.

Time will only tell . . . so my thoughts and prayers are out to the entire Caribbean.

 

[lilpatty19]

well living in south Fl and having gone through soooo many hurricanes lets just hope that Ivan doesn't come whether south or central Fl..let hope Ivan misses the US :sohappy:

 

[symbasys]

again though, just in CASE ivan comes here,

I'm still searching for a Midwest, West-Coast, or Canadian WDWMagic member to give me a lift from whatever airport I end up at

I'm not too picky as to where I will go to avoid this little drizzle

I say let's all just go to Disneyland for a couple of weeks.... or better yet, til after November 30th. :lookaroun

 

[dandaman]

I'm still searching for a Midwest, West-Coast, or Canadian WDWMagic member to give me a lift from whatever airport I end up at

I'm Canadian, but I can't drive yet...:lol:

 

[DisneyMan]

Thought you might all like to take a look at this site. shows you the estimated projected paths and a few other things about the tropical storms out in the Alantic and around the world.

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/


-DisneyMan :sohappy:

 

[Number_6]

Report I just heard has the wind down to around 125mph... and said it should hit Haiti by around Thursday and if it does hit the SE United States, it will be sometime around next weekend.... GOOD LUCK ALL!!

 

[Shrike]

The latest bulleten:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 061759
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST MON SEP 06 2004

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IVAN WEAKER BUT STILL DANGEROUS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT... THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH ...35
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
HOWEVER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR
115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER IVAN MAY
RE-STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 969
MB...28.61 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 54.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

 

[Ringo8n24]

With Ivan moving so quickly, maybe he can get his "business" over with and get on out of here. The islands it will pass over could break it up some, but no matter what happens if he gets too close to Florida then loops out into the Atlantic there will be some more rain involved for you guys. The way he is moving, this should all be over with by the end of the week or so to me. Then hopefully no Hurricane Jeanne anytime soon.

 

[PhotoDave219]

again though, just in CASE ivan comes here,

I'm still searching for a Midwest, West-Coast, or Canadian WDWMagic member to give me a lift from whatever airport I end up at

I'm not too picky as to where I will go to avoid this little drizzle

LOL why not get hurricaned in with the GF? Gotta make the best of it....

 

[Mr D]

This is one of the latest strike probability maps that i've seen, not good thats for sure, there are a few more I will try to post about water temps and steering currents if possible.

 

[Mr D]

Here is a GOES satellite image of the Western Atlantic/Caribbean that has Ivan pictured, looks just as big as Frances.

 

[Mr D]

And the same image in infrared.....its scary :lookaroun

 

[Mr D]

This image is using shortwave IR to pick up denser water content.

 

[Mr D]

This image is enchanced, looks pretty enough to make a poster out of! :lol:
Seriously though its possible Ivan may be the yet this season.

 

[Atta83]

Ivan seems to be going to quickly for him to get his you know what organized. He has been downgraded and moving very quickly. So we will have to watch him very closely.