The Official Hurricane Frances thread...

chancellor

chancellor

Member
This morning's computer models are all over the place. Some have it hitting around West Palm Beach and cutting right through Florida, others turning north and hitting S. Carolina. Hence the 300 mile margin of error.

I don't think we'll know anything within reason about the path of the storm until Friday, maybe Thursday, but things generally look bad for some part(s) of Florida over the weekend.
 
GoCamels

GoCamels

Active Member
Original Poster
Florida looking better...OBX looking WORSE...

Tuesday 11am advisory track spells trouble if you ask me in that it just soldifies the trend thats been developing over the last 24 hours.

When we start to see these 3 4 and 5 day forecast tracks from the NHC shifting more and more NORTH at a steady rate, there's only one way this thing is forecasting out to go...right at us here in NC...we've seen it with Fran, Floyd and Isabel since 95.

The subtropical ridge (AKA Bermuda Hi) which is guiding this thing westward at the moment looks to be weaking enough by the time Frances reaches the Bahamas that it will begin to move more northward.

The one thing the NHC keeps harping on in the Discussions is that the track forecast they are projecting is having to deal with wide divergence between the models, and that they are trying to stay as close down the middle as reasonably possible.

Now lets just hope we get a strong cold front off the Great Lakes something like that about the same time to boot it out of here.

Bahamas are going to get pounded, and western bands probably graze the FLA east coast...but around one week from now, everything from Charleston to Norfolk will be closing up the storm shutters.

Preparing for the worst...hoping for the best...
 
SpongeScott

SpongeScott

Well-Known Member
GoCamels said:
Tuesday 11am advisory track spells trouble if you ask me in that it just soldifies the trend thats been developing over the last 24 hours.

When we start to see these 3 4 and 5 day forecast tracks from the NHC shifting more and more NORTH at a steady rate, there's only one way this thing is forecasting out to go...right at us here in NC...we've seen it with Fran, Floyd and Isabel since 95.

The subtropical ridge (AKA Bermuda Hi) which is guiding this thing westward at the moment looks to be weaking enough by the time Frances reaches the Bahamas that it will begin to move more northward.

The one thing the NHC keeps harping on in the Discussions is that the track forecast they are projecting is having to deal with wide divergence between the models, and that they are trying to stay as close down the middle as reasonably possible.

Now lets just hope we get a strong cold front off the Great Lakes something like that about the same time to boot it out of here.

Bahamas are going to get pounded, and western bands probably graze the FLA east coast...but around one week from now, everything from Charleston to Norfolk will be closing up the storm shutters.

Preparing for the worst...hoping for the best...
Click to expand...
I think you're in trouble......batten down the hatches!

And as for the Great Lakes cold front, that only moves it on to someone else. I remember a few years ago that Pat Robertson said he "prayed" a hurricane away from Virginia Beach and it went north and hit up around NY. What? God doesn't like the people in NY? But I drift.....

Hope all goes well for you. :wave:
 
Atta83

Atta83

Well-Known Member
If you live in the area or areas where it is projected to hit please go out shopping right away adn get supplies!!! Please dont wait till the last minute.!!!! Another way to save water is if you have bottles at home, fill those up with water as well and save a few bucks.
 
tigsmom

tigsmom

Well-Known Member
SpongeScott said:
I think you're in trouble......batten down the hatches!

And as for the Great Lakes cold front, that only moves it on to someone else. I remember a few years ago that Pat Robertson said he "prayed" a hurricane away from Virginia Beach and it went north and hit up around NY. What? God doesn't like the people in NY? But I drift.....

Hope all goes well for you. :wave:
Click to expand...


God doesn't like me anymore?! :cry:

This one sounds just a scary as Charly. These storms have a history of doing what they please...better to be prepared.
 
chancellor

chancellor

Member
GoCamels said:
Tuesday 11am advisory track spells trouble if you ask me in that it just soldifies the trend thats been developing over the last 24 hours.

When we start to see these 3 4 and 5 day forecast tracks from the NHC shifting more and more NORTH at a steady rate, there's only one way this thing is forecasting out to go...right at us here in NC...we've seen it with Fran, Floyd and Isabel since 95.

The subtropical ridge (AKA Bermuda Hi) which is guiding this thing westward at the moment looks to be weaking enough by the time Frances reaches the Bahamas that it will begin to move more northward.

The one thing the NHC keeps harping on in the Discussions is that the track forecast they are projecting is having to deal with wide divergence between the models, and that they are trying to stay as close down the middle as reasonably possible.
Click to expand...

You're right about the recent trend, but yesterday the trend in the 5-day forecast had the track moving more west and south, making it look like West Palm Beach was in for it, with the storm popping out in the Gulf right over Tampa. Now that's only one model - the others are showing either Jacksonville or Charleston. The NHC was saying after Charley, don't focus on the skinny line (as you point out, that's just an "average" of the computer models). The storm is likely to hit anywhere in the forecast "cone." Nobody from Miami to Wilmington is out of the woods yet (or in it, for that matter). I've seen these things turn on a dime many times, even within the 12 hour forecast.
 
wannab@dis

wannab@dis

Well-Known Member
Can someone use one of the posted storm tracks and highlight Castaway Cay? I thought it was east of the keys, but could be wrong. If so, then it appears right in the path of Frances.
 
diverdown2000

diverdown2000

New Member
Well we just got back from 5 days of wonderful camping at Ft. Wilderness and playing in the parks to back home here in Jax. to see that Frances has a possibility coming our way...

People in Jax. have been to use to watching hurricanes pass us by they are not to worried...I guess they did not learn their lesson that anything can happpen...I on the other hand have the camper still packed and planning to get the family out towards the west just in case...

From Jacksonville and North looks to be the probabilities and hoping the margin of error plays a part in this one...
 
prberk

prberk

Well-Known Member
Also, don't forget the problem of saturated land. All of the Southeastern coast stated need to worry this time, because we have now had so much rain from the last few storms, that trees are likely to fall like matchsticks whereever that storm goes, and well inland.

That is why we were hit so hard last September by Isabelle...

And now Richmond, Virginia, is completely saturated from last night's record 14 inches of rain as the remains of Gaston stalled over us...

http://www.nbc12.com/servlet/Satell...BT_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031777621783

http://www.nbc12.com/servlet/Satell...BT_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031777642946

I think that the entire I-95 corridor, from Virginia to Florida, needs to stay alert, even if it weekens.

Paul
 
Sloan

Sloan

Well-Known Member
Castaway Cay (for Wannab@disney)

Castaway Cay is in the Abacos chain (formerly Gorda Cay) - near the very bottom of the big island (look for Hole in the Wall on a map) - so yes, it's very close to the current predicted path of the storm, and that would not be a good place to be ... the good news is that it's not right on the deep water/ocean, so massive waves are not as much of an issue as for the barrier islands, which will take a beating.

take a look: http://www.go-abacos.com/theabs/theab_map.html
 
Tim G

Tim G

Well-Known Member
Daily Hurricane Francis Update

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="98%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ff0000><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=large>STORM STATUS</TD><TD class=small align=right>August 31, 4:44 PM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>Name: Hurricane Frances</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small vAlign=top>Location: About 145 miles, 235 km, North of San Juan Puerto Rico.
Lat/Long: 20.5N, 65.9W
Max Winds: 140 mph
Category: 4
</TD><TD class=small vAlign=top noWrap>Heading: West
Speed: 17 mph
Pressure: 27.73 inches
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small align=middle colSpan=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

2055Frances-02.gif
 
NemoRocks78

NemoRocks78

Seized
Right now it isn't as strong as Charley was, and they aren't expecting it to get past Category 4. The central Bahamas are currently in a hurricane watch and the southeast Bahamas are under a hurricane warning.

It will now either continue on the same path that was made known earlier today or it will (hopefully) just barely miss us. Either way, we're going to get some type of effects. If it continues on the same path from earlier, it will make landfall in Daytona Beach at around 2pm Saturday. It would be out of the state 24 hours later.

This is all from the weatherman, who is saying this as we speak.
 
barnum42

barnum42

New Member
Atta83 said:
I hope it all comes out to be ok for you to fly!
Click to expand...
I've landed in a tropical rainstorm before. Quite a ride.

Besides any selfish reasons I have for wanting it to stay away, I have no desire to see a repeat of the suffering to others caused by the Charley devastation.
 
cindy_k

cindy_k

Well-Known Member
barnum42 said:
Besides any selfish reasons I have for wanting it to stay away, I have no desire to see a repeat of the suffering to others caused by the Charley devastation.
Click to expand...

Amen to that. Flying in to Orlando, I saw a lot of Blue Tarp covered roofs of everyone who lost roof tiles or worse. The last things these poor folks need is another nasty storm.

Good Luck everyone.
Cindy from NY, currently in WDW.
 

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