The Hometown Rivalry. Even Meg Crofton was impressed by Potter.

[jakeman]

It is if it puts you back to where you were a brand new park...and this is only HALF the year.

Again. Potter did not open until June. This will be Potter's first full year.
Also if people are spending more(more than likely) than yes, it is better than the previous number.


Again. I get the 36 percent deal is more good PR sounding than what it actually is. I would say your estimate there is conservative but let's say it is 6.2 Million. That is a HUGE growth from where they were with one new attraction to bring you back up to your highest numbers ever when the biggest draw has only been there for part of that recorded year.

That was the point of my posts. From a business performance perspective. You have growth at Universal, and just staying flat for most of WDW.

And not "all the potter-heads" have visited. Potter, like Star Wars(closest comparison) is a Multi Billion dollar selling book and movie series. It has fans in Countries all over the world. It is a huge pop culture statement all over the world. The craze will die down like everything else but people are and will be saving for years for their chance to go.

I guess what I am pointing out is the huge double standard Uni is receiving here.

The fact that they let attendance slip so much would be a cause for concern for the future of Potterland.

Again, imagine if attendance fell 36% at a Disney park?

Regardless of what was done to bring it back up that would be an unforgivable sin around here. Look how much gnashing of teeth there are when there is just one quarter of flat attendance.

Lastly 6.2 million isn't conservative if my math is correct. I took the 2009 attendance figures (4.5 million) and multiplied them by 1.36 and ended up with roughly 6.2 million.

 

[T-1MILLION]

I must confess they are not. They have improved.
AK 2006 attendance 8.91 million
AK 2009 attendance 9.6 million

How have the years inbetween been? I would be interested to see those as well. It was an example, I will admit a foot in mouth moment there if the other numbers are equally as high as 2009's. That still does not show that it is a better investment than Potter. Unless they are selling more Yeti plush's than wands and butterbeer.

2010 will be most interesting to see as far as that goes...

The fact remains that Potter has helped IOA perform as a business model better than Disney's parks lately with the spike in attendance and guest spending. I stated no other fact than that. With a business unfortunately at times its always about growth in profits, not about attendance. Unfortunately, Disney often seems content with adding little for years.

 

[T-1MILLION]

I guess what I am pointing out is the huge double standard Uni is receiving here.

The fact that they let attendance slip so much would be a cause for concern for the future of Potterland.

Again, imagine if attendance fell 36% at a Disney park?

Regardless of what was done to bring it back up that would be an unforgivable sin around here. Look how much gnashing of teeth there are when there is just one quarter of flat attendance.

Lastly 6.2 million isn't conservative if my math is correct. I took the 2009 attendance figures (4.5 million) and multiplied them by 1.36 and ended up with roughly 6.2 million.

I am not saying your math is off. I am saying I have a feeling that early attendance reports are by a bit. Apologies.


If attendance fell 36 percent all of a sudden at a Disney park over the course of a few years it would be great as far as I and many others are concerned because it would force them to actually do things. Disney has their own version of it with DCA.

Sadly, as those AK attendance reports show that Disney is content with doing nothing.

If Universal does nothing their attendance will fall again. Just like almost anything. Disney often has the luck of being the giant and remains with near static or slight dips and rise figures.


Edit: IOA was run horribly for awhile with nothing new. All the eggs in that one basket at first and then the lack of advertising and bad management. The shift here is what makes it worth praise. I certainly don't think there is an excuse for the way the park was handled years prior.

That being said after IOA's initial hype died down and the park started to take the dip in attendance figures I am sure it was around that time that Potter was tossed around and planned. Personally, just speaking from opinion I think the wait for Potter paid off better than any of the things they could of added along the way for the past 6 years of nothing. (with only two small attractions since opening)

 

[lebeau]

I must confess they are not. They have improved.
AK 2006 attendance 8.91 million
AK 2009 attendance 9.6 million

What were the discounts like in 2006? I'm thinking that's the primary difference between 2009 and 2006.

 

[Master Yoda]

How have the years inbetween been? I would be interested to see those as well. It was an example, I will admit a foot in mouth moment there if the other numbers are equally as high as 2009's. That still does not show that it is a better investment than Potter. Unless they are selling more Yeti plush's than wands and butterbeer.

2010 will be most interesting to see as far as that goes...

The fact remains that Potter has helped IOA perform as a business model better than Disney's parks lately with the spike in attendance and guest spending. I stated no other fact than that. With a business unfortunately at times its always about growth in profits, not about attendance. Unfortunately, Disney often seems content with adding little for years.

I never said that E:E was a better investment. US did get a great bang for their buck with Potter. The only thing I questioned was its ability to maintain the extreme growth spike. Many fanboys seem to think that it will and IOA will soon overtake MK's attendance crown it has held for decades. Personally I think that attendance will level off below the current spike and then continue a slow but moderate climb depending on what new offerings US has. If IOA stagnates then attendance could potentially drop again.

 

[Master Yoda]

What were the discounts like in 2006? I'm thinking that's the primary difference between 2009 and 2006.

No figures at hand but from my own personal experience discounts were about the same to lees in 2009.

 

[lebeau]

Many fanboys seem to think that it will and IOA will soon overtake MK's attendance crown it has held for decades.

I honestly don't think I've seen anyone even hint that IOA will ever be viable competition for MK.

Even the most optimistic predictions I've seen include some kind of dip once the novelty wears off.

On the other hand, I've seen lots of fanboys talking about how much business Potter is driving to Disney.

 

[Testtrack321]

If IOA stagnates then attendance could potentially drop again.

Which raises a good point. How much is Potter and wow much is IoA actually adding an attraction* in over 10 years?




*StormForce tea cups and finally finishing the Seuss monorail hardly count

 

[lebeau]

No figures at hand but from my own personal experience discounts were about the same to lees in 2009.

You'd know better than me. I tend to think of 2009 as the year discounts got out of hand. I don't have any clue what was going on with discounts in 2006 as we went in 2005 and a trip just wasn't in the cards that year.

 

[jakeman]

I never said that E:E was a better investment. US did get a great bang for their buck with Potter. The only thing I questioned was its ability to maintain the extreme growth spike. Many fanboys seem to think that it will and IOA will soon overtake MK's attendance crown it has held for decades. Personally I think that attendance will level off below the current spike and then continue a slow but moderate climb depending on what new offerings US has. If IOA stagnates then attendance could potentially drop again.

I think this is a good point. Regardless of our discussion here, I think the per guest spending figures will speak for themselves. That will be an interesting comparison if and when it is available.

I'm not poo-pooing Uni's success at all either, just trying to inject some realism to it.

I certainly hope that at the end of the current quarter that I'm having this same discussion over another 36% increase at Uni.

I would love to see HP expanded and competition is great for the consumer.

 

[Master Yoda]

You'd know better than me. I tend to think of 2009 as the year discounts got out of hand. I don't have any clue what was going on with discounts in 2006 as we went in 2005 and a trip just wasn't in the cards that year.

When you are not knee deep in it like I have to be it appears that there are discounts offered nearly every day of the year. On the surface that is somewhat true but as always the devil is in the details. As time presses on blackout dates become longer and more frequent, certain resorts do not have availability, discounts are not as deep, etc. In the end of 2009, from my perspective at least, was the first time in recent memory that discounts actually started to dry up just a little. The trend continued in 2010.

 

[Master Yoda]

I think this is a good point. Regardless of our discussion here, I think the per guest spending figures will speak for themselves. That will be an interesting comparison if and when it is available.

I'm not poo-pooing Uni's success at all either, just trying to inject some realism to it.

I certainly hope that at the end of the current quarter that I'm having this same discussion over another 36% increase at Uni.

I would love to see HP expanded and competition is great for the consumer.

Quite true. I want Potter to kick the ever loving crap out of WDW as they will have no choice but to open the checkbook and respond. But like you I would like to see a little more of the game before I declare a winner.

 

[lebeau]

When you are not knee deep in it like I have to be it appears that there are discounts offered nearly every day of the year. On the surface that is somewhat true but as always the devil is in the details. As time presses on blackout dates become longer and more frequent, certain resorts do not have availability, discounts are not as deep, etc. In the end of 2009, from my perspective at least, was the first time in recent memory that discounts actually started to dry up just a little. The trend continued in 2010.

I know what you're saying there. I had thought discounts were crazy in 2010 based on the fact that I kept getting PIN codes and the like. Then I read a post of yours (I believe) mentioning blackout dates. I started paying more attention to black out dates and sure enough there were more restrictions than I was used to.

 

[Master Yoda]

I know what you're saying there. I had thought discounts were crazy in 2010 based on the fact that I kept getting PIN codes and the like. Then I read a post of yours (I believe) mentioning blackout dates. I started paying more attention to black out dates and sure enough there were more restrictions than I was used to.

That is was. I had 2 clients that because of a firm resort choice actually had to pay rack rate in the beginning of December. That was simply unheard of in years past.

 

[fosse76]

I love how everyone is making note of Universal's huge increase and then talking about Disney being FLAT...You all do realize they are including ALL 6 of the US Disney parks in those attendance numbers don't you? Which basically tells me that while Universal had huge gains in their properties, and aside from maybe the Magic Kingdom, the other three WDW parks more than likely saw a loss this year in attendance. Everyone knows the Disneyland resort had a very good year. Just wait...it will come out eventually, even with Disney trying to hide it.

You seem to illustrate my point after trying to counter it. Disney didn't release figures, but admitted that all of its worldwide properties, EXCEPT Walt Disney World, saw an increase in attendance. However, their reports only account for U.S. parks, whose attendance remained flat. For The parks to remain flat and Disneyland to have increased attendance, WDW had to have lost attendance...which they won't admit. No one is saying that the decrease is coming specifically from the Magic Kingdom. I think you are implying that other people have implied that it's from the Magic Kingdom.

As for Jakeman, thanks for getting the numbers. But 1.6 million people is 1.6 million people. That's a lot of people. Do you really think Disney WOULDN'T want them? Or that they would want to lose them to Universal, even if only for a day. If we assume that all 1.6 million people only came to Orlando for Harry Potter but stayed for Disney, then that means, with flat attendance and without Harry Potter, Disney would have lost 1.6 million people in attendance. Alternatively, if those 1.6 million people merely took a day or two out their Disney vacation, it still means Disney lost 1.6 million visitors. Obviously that's not happened. There are dozens of scenarios, but either way, Disney lost guests. Crofton is doing a lot of spin, plain and simple. Potter only moderately helped them.

 

[jakeman]

As for Jakeman, thanks for getting the numbers. But 1.6 million people is 1.6 million people. That's a lot of people. Do you really think Disney WOULDN'T want them? Or that they would want to lose them to Universal, even if only for a day. If we assume that all 1.6 million people only came to Orlando for Harry Potter but stayed for Disney, then that means, with flat attendance and without Harry Potter, Disney would have lost 1.6 million people in attendance. Alternatively, if those 1.6 million people merely took a day or two out their Disney vacation, it still means Disney lost 1.6 million visitors. Obviously that's not happened. There are dozens of scenarios, but either way, Disney lost guests. Crofton is doing a lot of spin, plain and simple. Potter only moderately helped them.

I fail to understand your point.

I am trying to get away from a nonsensical percent and drive the conversation with some sort of realism in relation to both the attendance of WDW and Uni. Thirty-six percent has absolutely no context regarding attendance as it would be almost impossible, for example, MK to post that large of an increase.

I've never denied that Disney has lost some business to Potterland. I think it would be stupid to assume otherwise. However, the context of how much has been lost is completely out of hand.

However, I have experienced your divination of other posters in various threads, so I will be interested to see what I really mean sub-consciously in this discussion.

 

[ChrisFL]

Which raises a good point. How much is Potter and wow much is IoA actually adding an attraction* in over 10 years?




*StormForce tea cups and finally finishing the Seuss monorail hardly count

Are you asking how much IOA has added in the last 10 years?

Honestly they opened the park with a full day's worth of attractions unlike when MGM and AK opened. There were MANY (if we're using the Disney measurement) E-Ticket attractions:

Incredible Hulk
Dueling Dragons Fire
Dueling Dragons Ice
Spiderman
JP River Adventure
Pluto's Bilge Rat Barges
Ripsaw Falls

I would say most of those fall into the "E-ticket" category (although I'm sure someone will disagree)

 

[ToTBellHop]

I'm more curious of how Universal is planning on sustaining these numbers, as they will wane. I would guess either Poseidon's Fury or the Sindbad show have their days numbered. Diagon Alley would be a good choice. The issue for Universal is that, as far as I know, there isn't too much space for actual expansion, so that will make it difficult to ever get their attendance up to Disney levels.

Regardless, the competition is good. I went to WDW in 2009 and just returned again and the only new things were the return of Captain EO and the MSEP. I don't ever remember going 1.5 years without a bona fide new ride opening (there was a time when an E-Ticket opened roughly yearly...).

 

[Master Yoda]

Are you asking how much IOA has added in the last 10 years?

Honestly they opened the park with a full day's worth of attractions unlike when MGM and AK opened. There were MANY (if we're using the Disney measurement) E-Ticket attractions:

Incredible Hulk
Dueling Dragons Fire
Dueling Dragons Ice
Spiderman
JP River Adventure
Pluto's Bilge Rat Barges
Ripsaw Falls

I would say most of those fall into the "E-ticket" category (although I'm sure someone will disagree)

While true I think Disney is onto something by opening a 1/2 completed theme park. It gives guests a reason to come back. IOA came out at a full sprint for a marathon. Once people had been a few times the question was always "What is there new to do?" Disney has always fed us through a bar straw with consistent little updates that kept us coming back for more. It might not be the ethical thing to do but you can't argue that it has been successful form a business standpoint.

 

[T-1MILLION]

While true I think Disney is onto something by opening a 1/2 completed theme park. It gives guests a reason to come back. IOA came out at a full sprint for a marathon. Once people had been a few times the question was always "What is there new to do?" Disney has always fed us through a bar straw with consistent little updates that kept us coming back for more. It might not be the ethical thing to do but you can't argue that it has been successful form a business standpoint.

Can't argue with that. Very smart business plan. To be fair to the creators behind IOA they had no choice. Disney was well established by then with more than just the Magic Kingdom and had a history of 30 years they had to give their best game.


Just out of curiosity I honestly don't have a known list. From 71 to 81, the magic kingdom's first ten years what was added? With the exception of Pirates of The Caribbean.