News The Effect of “Frozen 2” in the Parks (SPOILER HEAVY)

[TTA94]

Bets are Epcot’s Harmonius will be the first show to use some of Frozen 2s music.

 

[BrianLo]

Otherwise our total by Monday is probably more in line with 700 million and several more months of run plus a few smaller international markets to go.

Self congratulatory pat on the back.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

I think most objective adults will find that F2's storyline was just flat out more interesting than the original. As an adult, I genuinely enjoyed it. I think this one is much more 'Toy Story 2' than 'Aladdin 2'. It certainly wasn't mailed-in.

Personally I have no interest in the "how much $$ did they make?" comparisons. I just liked the movie, and I wasn't even really expecting to go see it in-theater.

 

[JustInTime]

I think most objective adults will find that F2's storyline was just flat out more interesting than the original. As an adult, I genuinely enjoyed it. I think this one is much more 'Toy Story 2' than 'Aladdin 2'. It certainly wasn't mailed-in.

Personally I have no interest in the "how much $$ did they make?" comparisons. I just liked the movie, and I wasn't even really expecting to go see it in-theater.

As an adult, I LOVED it. As did everyone I saw it with. Much more than the first.

 

[JustInTime]

LOL, You calling me a speciesist?

I'm just pointing out a fact. They look too similar.

Disagree.

 

[WDW Pro]

I don’t think @WDW Pro is going to show up in this thread again for many reasons.

Projections are still right in line for what I said: 500-600 million domestic. I had an obvious error in the first message in which I discussed global and domestic numbers in a typo... however, any reasonable person can read it and see its an unintentional error. All of that said, the movie is still under $300,000,000 domestically, with a significant drop off post-Thanksgiving, and much more frontloaded than the original. All indications and industry expectations are that the movie will not pull anywhere near the December numbers the original used to catapult it forward. The international numbers are dropping quickly now, with the movie standing at #114 all-time in international revenues.

In other words, absolutely nothing has changed since the last time I posted. Toy Story 4 was a bigger hit for Disney, and TS4 didn't pull the numbers they were hoping for. Frozen 2 is a fine sequel numbers-wise, doesn't have nearly the same audience reception as the first, and doesn't grow the franchise, which was its purpose.

The much better news for Disney is that The Mandalorian is being very well received and gives them a blueprint moving forward in the soon-to-be post-Kathleen Kennedy Lucasfilm, and several of Disney's upcoming animated features look to be exceedingly popular. Frozen 2 is fine, but it's not going to land in the 1.5 billion club for worldwide, and will struggle to get to 1 billion worldwide period. $500-600 million domestic is where it will hit, just as I predicted, and it will likely be on the low end of the 500 number.

 

[Mouse Trap]

Projections are still right in line for what I said: 500-600 million domestic. I had an obvious error in the first message in which I discussed global and domestic numbers in a typo... however, any reasonable person can read it and see its an unintentional error. All of that said, the movie is still under $300,000,000 domestically, with a significant drop off post-Thanksgiving, and much more frontloaded than the original. All indications and industry expectations are that the movie will not pull anywhere near the December numbers the original used to catapult it forward. The international numbers are dropping quickly now, with the movie standing at #114 all-time in international revenues.

In other words, absolutely nothing has changed since the last time I posted. Toy Story 4 was a bigger hit for Disney, and TS4 didn't pull the numbers they were hoping for. Frozen 2 is a fine sequel numbers-wise, doesn't have nearly the same audience reception as the first, and doesn't grow the franchise, which was its purpose.

The much better news for Disney is that The Mandalorian is being very well received and gives them a blueprint moving forward in the soon-to-be post-Kathleen Kennedy Lucasfilm, and several of Disney's upcoming animated features look to be exceedingly popular. Frozen 2 is fine, but it's not going to land in the 1.5 billion club for worldwide, and will struggle to get to 1 billion worldwide period. $500-600 million domestic is where it will hit, just as I predicted, and it will likely be on the low end of the 500 number.

Lol you couldn't have been more wrong and now you're totally scrambling to cover yourself. You literally said:

It's likely to grab a box office total of $500-600 million, far below the billion of the first.

That's not an "obvious error" at all. You suggested that $500-600 million would be the box office TOTAL not once, but twice when you compared it to the "billion of the first". You unintentionally made that error twice?? You're not fooling anyone, nice try tho.

All of that said, the movie is still under $300,000,000 domestically, with a significant drop off post-Thanksgiving, and much more frontloaded than the original.

Ooof... wrong again. It had a second weekend drop-off of around only 35%. One of the smallest ever for a blockbuster film. Are the interns feeding you wrong info again? Please stop misleading people.

 

[Schmidt]

Projections are still right in line for what I said: 500-600 million domestic. I had an obvious error in the first message in which I discussed global and domestic numbers in a typo... however, any reasonable person can read it and see its an unintentional error. All of that said, the movie is still under $300,000,000 domestically, with a significant drop off post-Thanksgiving, and much more frontloaded than the original. All indications and industry expectations are that the movie will not pull anywhere near the December numbers the original used to catapult it forward. The international numbers are dropping quickly now, with the movie standing at #114 all-time in international revenues.

In other words, absolutely nothing has changed since the last time I posted. Toy Story 4 was a bigger hit for Disney, and TS4 didn't pull the numbers they were hoping for. Frozen 2 is a fine sequel numbers-wise, doesn't have nearly the same audience reception as the first, and doesn't grow the franchise, which was its purpose.

The much better news for Disney is that The Mandalorian is being very well received and gives them a blueprint moving forward in the soon-to-be post-Kathleen Kennedy Lucasfilm, and several of Disney's upcoming animated features look to be exceedingly popular. Frozen 2 is fine, but it's not going to land in the 1.5 billion club for worldwide, and will struggle to get to 1 billion worldwide period. $500-600 million domestic is where it will hit, just as I predicted, and it will likely be on the low end of the 500 number.

Sometimes it's easier to admit that you're wrong. Frozen is killing it in the theaters and more importantly kids and parents seem to love it. I know that my kids and I did as well. Actually prefer it over the 1st.

I know you are trying to spin this as a failure, but all the data coming out proves you are VERY wrong including the very strong 2nd week at the B.O. This movie will gross over 1B globally and probably finish in the 500M mark domestically.

You are trying to pick arguments that support your bullocks.

 

[WDW Pro]

Sometimes it's easier to admit that you're wrong. Frozen is killing it in the theaters and more importantly kids and parents seem to love it. I know that my kids and I did as well. Actually prefer it over the 1st.

I know you are trying to spin this as a failure, but all the data coming out proves you are VERY wrong including the very strong 2nd week at the B.O. This movie will gross over 1B globally and probably finish in the 500M mark domestically.

You are trying to pick arguments that support your bullocks.

I can get into the weeds if you'd like, but I think it's suffice to say that Frozen II's Thanksgiving bump wasn't nearly what the original's was, and indications are that it is fading much faster post-Thanksgiving. It still did well, but its heavily front-loaded and doesn't grow the franchise. It may gross 1B in total, but it would be close and might depend on Disney leaving it out until as late as April to try to get it across the line for marketing purposes. Either way it won't gross the total of the original, which isn't what Disney would like to see, especially with enormous international growth since 2013 (in other words, maintaining prior popularity automatically gives you a higher sequel return, but this isn't happening).

 

[Mouse Trap]

I can get into the weeds if you'd like, but I think it's suffice to say that Frozen II's Thanksgiving bump wasn't nearly what the original's was, and indications are that it is fading much faster post-Thanksgiving. It still did well, but its heavily front-loaded and doesn't grow the franchise. It may gross 1B in total, but it would be close and might depend on Disney leaving it out until as late as April to try to get it across the line for marketing purposes. Either way it won't gross the total of the original, which isn't what Disney would like to see, especially with enormous international growth since 2013 (in other words, maintaining prior popularity automatically gives you a higher sequel return, but this isn't happening).

Get into the weeds because... guess what? You're making things up... again! The original Frozen couldn't possibly have a Thanksgiving "bump" because its wide release was Wednesday "Thanksgiving Eve"/Thanksgiving weekend. So there's nothing to compare to. How much more do I have to call you out on?

For those who want facts on Thanksgiving domestic box office:
Thanksgiving 3-Day Total Frozen: $67M
Thanksgiving 3-Day Total Frozen 2: $85M

 

[Prince-1]

I can get into the weeds if you'd like, but I think it's suffice to say that Frozen II's Thanksgiving bump wasn't nearly what the original's was, and indications are that it is fading much faster post-Thanksgiving. It still did well, but its heavily front-loaded and doesn't grow the franchise. It may gross 1B in total, but it would be close and might depend on Disney leaving it out until as late as April to try to get it across the line for marketing purposes. Either way it won't gross the total of the original, which isn't what Disney would like to see, especially with enormous international growth since 2013 (in other words, maintaining prior popularity automatically gives you a higher sequel return, but this isn't happening).

Only if there was a way you could have fact checked yourself before you wrote something that was incorrect?!? No worries I did it for you and guess what...you was very very wrong.

Frozen 2: Electric Boogaloo "secured its place in box office history with the highest Thanksgiving weekend total of all time and dethroning The Hunger Games: Catching Fire in the process."

I'd say that bump was pretty darn big.

 

[Darth Snips]

Projections are still right in line for what I said: 500-600 million domestic. I had an obvious error in the first message in which I discussed global and domestic numbers in a typo... however, any reasonable person can read it and see its an unintentional error. All of that said, the movie is still under $300,000,000 domestically, with a significant drop off post-Thanksgiving, and much more frontloaded than the original. All indications and industry expectations are that the movie will not pull anywhere near the December numbers the original used to catapult it forward. The international numbers are dropping quickly now, with the movie standing at #114 all-time in international revenues.

In other words, absolutely nothing has changed since the last time I posted. Toy Story 4 was a bigger hit for Disney, and TS4 didn't pull the numbers they were hoping for. Frozen 2 is a fine sequel numbers-wise, doesn't have nearly the same audience reception as the first, and doesn't grow the franchise, which was its purpose.

The much better news for Disney is that The Mandalorian is being very well received and gives them a blueprint moving forward in the soon-to-be post-Kathleen Kennedy Lucasfilm, and several of Disney's upcoming animated features look to be exceedingly popular. Frozen 2 is fine, but it's not going to land in the 1.5 billion club for worldwide, and will struggle to get to 1 billion worldwide period. $500-600 million domestic is where it will hit, just as I predicted, and it will likely be on the low end of the 500 number.

Let's go ahead and clarify this so there are no more typos or misunderstandings: you're claiming that 500-600 million will be the domestic gross at the end of its theatrical run. That will then represent a 25-50% increase on the gross of Frozen 1. How exactly is that a disappointment?

Also, you're predicting that final worldwide gross will be around 1 billion. Given your above prediction, that means Frozen 2 will have at least 50% of it's total gross from North America. That seems.... really unlikely. Thus far, about 40% of Frozen 2's global total comes from domestic territories. That's on par with the first one. Assuming this percentage stays constant, and assuming the film ends up with 500-600 million domestic, the final worldwide gross will be around 1.25-1.5 billion. This seems like a much more realistic gross in my opinion.

If you're trying to make genuine predictions on this film's performance it's important to clarify your terms so that your claims can be verified down the road. So, just to be clear, you think that Frozen 2 will make no more than 600 million domestic, and not much more than a 1 billion worldwide?

If so, we'll see how it turns out.

P.S. - How would you define a "significant drop-off"? That's a pretty vague term, and it'd be easy to argue over what that consists of. Again, it'd be a lot easier to verify your claims if they were more clearly defined.

 

[YodaMan]

I can get into the weeds if you'd like, but I think it's suffice to say that Frozen II's Thanksgiving bump wasn't nearly what the original's was, and indications are that it is fading much faster post-Thanksgiving. It still did well, but its heavily front-loaded and doesn't grow the franchise. It may gross 1B in total, but it would be close and might depend on Disney leaving it out until as late as April to try to get it across the line for marketing purposes. Either way it won't gross the total of the original, which isn't what Disney would like to see, especially with enormous international growth since 2013 (in other words, maintaining prior popularity automatically gives you a higher sequel return, but this isn't happening).

Please just stop, you’re embarassing yourself.

 

[OG Runner]

I hate the sequel, the new outfits, the ending, everything. It breaks my heart that we're possibly losing everything related to the original as far as outfits and entertainment goes...

That is because it was transformative!

 

[Schmidt]

I can get into the weeds if you'd like, but I think it's suffice to say that Frozen II's Thanksgiving bump wasn't nearly what the original's was, and indications are that it is fading much faster post-Thanksgiving. It still did well, but its heavily front-loaded and doesn't grow the franchise. It may gross 1B in total, but it would be close and might depend on Disney leaving it out until as late as April to try to get it across the line for marketing purposes. Either way it won't gross the total of the original, which isn't what Disney would like to see, especially with enormous international growth since 2013 (in other words, maintaining prior popularity automatically gives you a higher sequel return, but this isn't happening).

I don’t know why I’m engaging with you since you seem pretty sold on the narrative you are spinning. Frozen made 400M domestically and 1.27 globally.
Frozen 2 has already made 300M domestically and 750M globally. It is on pace to beat Frozen 1 or at the very least match it.
Disney would be pretty estactic with a billion dollar hit.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

*box office talk comes up*

 

[bubbles1812]

Goodness. @WDW Pro ... Your desperation to save face is obvious. It’s ok to be wrong once in a while. I guess admitting it takes more courage.

Can’t wait for your box office analysis on Rise of Skywalker though.

 

[Dutch Inn '76]

I think most objective adults will find that F2's storyline was just flat out more interesting than the original. As an adult, I genuinely enjoyed it. I think this one is much more 'Toy Story 2' than 'Aladdin 2'. It certainly wasn't mailed-in.

Personally I have no interest in the "how much $$ did they make?" comparisons. I just liked the movie, and I wasn't even really expecting to go see it in-theater.

I saw "Frozen 2" and "Knives Out" on the same day, with dinner in between. Knives Out is a whole lot better. Seriously.

F2 is pretty crappy, really. It's like the first one, without the great music (because it was a mediocre movie too). "Tangled" was better than both of 'em... but this is known.

On the question of box office earnings; LET IT GO, of course it will make big money. That's what sequels are all about.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

I saw "Frozen 2" and "Knives Out" on the same day, with dinner in between. Knives Out is a whole lot better. Seriously.

F2 is pretty crappy, really. It's like the first one, without the great music (because it was a mediocre movie too). "Tangled" was better than both of 'em... but this is known.

On the question of box office earnings; LET IT GO, of course it will make big money. That's what sequels are all about.

I couldn't possibly care less about how Knives Out compares to Frozen 2 even if I tried... not relevant in the slightest to my post.

 

[Dutch Inn '76]

I couldn't possibly care less about how Knives Out compares to Frozen 2 even if I tried... not relevant in the slightest to my post.

And I don't care what YOU care about. I don't even know what the original post was. Was that you? I have no idea. I was simply commenting on the mediocrity of the film being discussed in the thread, and using another current film as an example. In the third sentence I did get into the weeds a bit on comparing it to other Disney works, so there is that for you.