GLaDOS
Well-Known Member
Yes, they're supposedly first click.
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TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd
- Thread starter PhotoDave219
- Start date
Yes, they're supposedly first click.
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
Then I'm with you, not buying it. Epcot might actually be the most inflated park because it's the most popular "receiving" park for hoppers.
Everybody has always used "first click" in counting a guest for that day. TEA & previously amusement business, always has used that method of accounting.
s8film40
Well-Known Member
This kind of makes these numbers meaningless. Someone goes to the park for breakfast and leaves that counts. They could then spend the whole rest of the day in another park and that doesn't count. I'm sure it balances out somewhat but there's no way to get a real clear picture of the popularity of each park compared to the others with this method.
How would TEA or AECOM know which clicks are first clicks unless that information was shared by the companies themselves?
doctornick
Well-Known Member
Why can't they touch the development pads?
danlb_2000
Premium Member
But if AECOM isn't getting data from the parks how would they know what's a first click and what isn't? If they aren't getting direct data then I would think they aren't counting people at all, just making estimates based on other sources of data.
Well, that's why I'm looking at TP's numbers to get a sense of what's going on.
Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
SeaWorld has sued TEA several times over inaccurate reporting of theme park numbers.
Have they ever won?
2013 v 2014.
So what we're looking at here is Crowd Data. Where the crowds were and how big they were versus 2013. Sure there's a lot of variables at play that impact these things but its the only data we have on observed crowds at WDW.
My methodology: I've broken things down into a couple of segments. First the peak/average/off-peak which represents crowds 8+/4-7/1-3. That gives an interesting picture but doesn't exactly show growth. So I price it down into Average and below (1-5), above average crowds (6+) as well as 1-2/3/4-5/6-7/8+ segments to really show how the crowd was moving between below average, above average, or peak crowds. I wanted to see if there was growth and the easiest way i could come up with to show it was to look at the number of above average days. And if there was more in 2014 than 2013, that park clearly grew. Simplistic but hopefully effective as it did show some patterns. Then we broke all that down by Six months and by Quarter in an attempt to show where the gains/losses ended up being.
Again, be entertained as this is meant to show a general picture….
Overall? The Resort is up and showing growth in 2014. Where I'm noticing the change is above average crowds (6+) 2014 is up 8% from 2013, with average crowds as a whole up 15%. Peak crowds dropped 3% but the resort as a whole drew 11% more 6/7 crowds. Also, there were fewer off-peak crowds as a whole, with 11% fewer in 2014.
January-March showed significant growth in above average crowds (6+), gaining nearly 8%, with 16% growth in 6/7 crowds. Off-peak crowds dropped 12%
April-June continued the trend of above average crowds, showing 6% more. The growth seems to come from the off-peak segment as about 14% joined the average segment. June-September was nearly identical, showing the exact same numbers in above average crowds. The only change it seems is the trend of off-peak crowds becoming average, right around 4%. October-December showed the most growth in above average crowds, with 18% growth. This is reflected in the peak crowd growth of 6% and in the 6/7 segment which showed 12% growth as well. Peak crowds diminished 10%
The Resort as a whole had 8% more above average crowds than 2013 and should reflect in the numbers.
MK
Magic Kingdom is up and up strong, leading the way with nearly 11% more above average crowds(6+). This is mostly reflected in the 6/7 segment that grew 13%.
Most of the year's growth came in the first six months of the year, showing the above average crowd growing 8% for the year between January and June. A strong April-June is where half of the year's gains seem to have come from, with above average crowds showing up 6% for the year in that time period.
The second half of 2014 for MK was remarkably similar to 2013, with the only noticeable change being a rise in peak crowds, with 5% peak crowd growth over 2014.
Overall? I'm suggesting MK grew at least 10% in 2014 over 2013.
Epcot……
(Just a word up front. My data source has no way of measuring the F&W/F&G crowds, so they are not factored in. Alas, we will press on.)
Epcot is up 6% in the Above Average crowd and thats all that really happened. Off-peak crowds became average crowds, showing 7% growth in the 6/7 segment.
The gains were equally spread out across the entire year, with about 2% growth each quarter in the Above Average crowds from April onwards. January-April was flat, showing nearly identical data. 2% drop in peak crowds were shown in a 2% gain in the 6/7 segment. Epcot showed slow and steady growth, essentially they were the "Little Theme Park that Could"
Overall? I'm suggesting 5% growth.
Studios.
Frozen Saved the Studios. Frozen saved the studios from have a disastrous year.
Above average crowds were down 2% for the year as a whole. The first six months of the Studios were pretty awful. Above Average crowds dropped 9% on the year, compared to 2013. Peak and above average crowds became average & below crowds.
Then along came Elsa…..
The second six months of the year righted the ship. Above average crowds were up 6.5% for the year and the most growth showed in Peak Crowds, growing 4.6% for the year over the same timeframe in 2013. Nearly 4% of those Peak Crowds growth came in October-December, which is up 15% for that quarter in 2013.
To be blunt? in 2013, you had an average and below crowd 60% of the time in the first six months and 63% of the time in the second half of the year. In 2014, the bottom really fell out in the first six months, 77% of the time you had an average or below crowd or 140 times out of 181 days. Elsa saved it, bringing in a 50% above average crowds for the second six months, while in 2013 the Studios only pulled an above average crowd 37% of the time.
Overall for the year? Still showing an off peak crowd 34% of the time for the year. Whatever gains Elsa brought, it nearly made up for a nasty first half.
(The Really bad news? Jan-March 2015 is showing similar numbers to the 2014, with 0.5% difference between 14 & 15)
Studios was the only park that showed a drop in above-average crowds. To be generous, I'm suggesting 1-3% growth at the Studios. It should show something because the Resort as a whole grew, but the Studios are just in bad shape. The data would support a slight drop IMO but resort growth should balance it.
Animal Kingdom
Good news overall and something interesting on the breakdown. First, the above average crowd grew 7.4% for the year, showing primarily in the 6/7 segment that grew 9.6%. Those gains primarily came from the off-peak segment that dropped 9% for the year. Peak days dropped 2%.
All of those gains described above came in the first half of 2014, split pretty evenly between the J-M & A-J quarters. The second half? damn near identical. Exact same above average crowd split and less than 1% deviation in the other segments.
So early growth in 2014 and a match of the 2103 crowds for the second half. Gonna give DAK 7% growth and go from there.
Overall Predictions?
I'm really interested to see how well these numbers match up with the TEA estimates. Curious to see what matches up....
So what we're looking at here is Crowd Data. Where the crowds were and how big they were versus 2013. Sure there's a lot of variables at play that impact these things but its the only data we have on observed crowds at WDW.
My methodology: I've broken things down into a couple of segments. First the peak/average/off-peak which represents crowds 8+/4-7/1-3. That gives an interesting picture but doesn't exactly show growth. So I price it down into Average and below (1-5), above average crowds (6+) as well as 1-2/3/4-5/6-7/8+ segments to really show how the crowd was moving between below average, above average, or peak crowds. I wanted to see if there was growth and the easiest way i could come up with to show it was to look at the number of above average days. And if there was more in 2014 than 2013, that park clearly grew. Simplistic but hopefully effective as it did show some patterns. Then we broke all that down by Six months and by Quarter in an attempt to show where the gains/losses ended up being.
Again, be entertained as this is meant to show a general picture….
Overall? The Resort is up and showing growth in 2014. Where I'm noticing the change is above average crowds (6+) 2014 is up 8% from 2013, with average crowds as a whole up 15%. Peak crowds dropped 3% but the resort as a whole drew 11% more 6/7 crowds. Also, there were fewer off-peak crowds as a whole, with 11% fewer in 2014.
January-March showed significant growth in above average crowds (6+), gaining nearly 8%, with 16% growth in 6/7 crowds. Off-peak crowds dropped 12%
April-June continued the trend of above average crowds, showing 6% more. The growth seems to come from the off-peak segment as about 14% joined the average segment. June-September was nearly identical, showing the exact same numbers in above average crowds. The only change it seems is the trend of off-peak crowds becoming average, right around 4%. October-December showed the most growth in above average crowds, with 18% growth. This is reflected in the peak crowd growth of 6% and in the 6/7 segment which showed 12% growth as well. Peak crowds diminished 10%
The Resort as a whole had 8% more above average crowds than 2013 and should reflect in the numbers.
MK
Magic Kingdom is up and up strong, leading the way with nearly 11% more above average crowds(6+). This is mostly reflected in the 6/7 segment that grew 13%.
Most of the year's growth came in the first six months of the year, showing the above average crowd growing 8% for the year between January and June. A strong April-June is where half of the year's gains seem to have come from, with above average crowds showing up 6% for the year in that time period.
The second half of 2014 for MK was remarkably similar to 2013, with the only noticeable change being a rise in peak crowds, with 5% peak crowd growth over 2014.
Overall? I'm suggesting MK grew at least 10% in 2014 over 2013.
Epcot……
(Just a word up front. My data source has no way of measuring the F&W/F&G crowds, so they are not factored in. Alas, we will press on.)
Epcot is up 6% in the Above Average crowd and thats all that really happened. Off-peak crowds became average crowds, showing 7% growth in the 6/7 segment.
The gains were equally spread out across the entire year, with about 2% growth each quarter in the Above Average crowds from April onwards. January-April was flat, showing nearly identical data. 2% drop in peak crowds were shown in a 2% gain in the 6/7 segment. Epcot showed slow and steady growth, essentially they were the "Little Theme Park that Could"
Overall? I'm suggesting 5% growth.
Studios.
Frozen Saved the Studios. Frozen saved the studios from have a disastrous year.
Above average crowds were down 2% for the year as a whole. The first six months of the Studios were pretty awful. Above Average crowds dropped 9% on the year, compared to 2013. Peak and above average crowds became average & below crowds.
Then along came Elsa…..
The second six months of the year righted the ship. Above average crowds were up 6.5% for the year and the most growth showed in Peak Crowds, growing 4.6% for the year over the same timeframe in 2013. Nearly 4% of those Peak Crowds growth came in October-December, which is up 15% for that quarter in 2013.
To be blunt? in 2013, you had an average and below crowd 60% of the time in the first six months and 63% of the time in the second half of the year. In 2014, the bottom really fell out in the first six months, 77% of the time you had an average or below crowd or 140 times out of 181 days. Elsa saved it, bringing in a 50% above average crowds for the second six months, while in 2013 the Studios only pulled an above average crowd 37% of the time.
Overall for the year? Still showing an off peak crowd 34% of the time for the year. Whatever gains Elsa brought, it nearly made up for a nasty first half.
(The Really bad news? Jan-March 2015 is showing similar numbers to the 2014, with 0.5% difference between 14 & 15)
Studios was the only park that showed a drop in above-average crowds. To be generous, I'm suggesting 1-3% growth at the Studios. It should show something because the Resort as a whole grew, but the Studios are just in bad shape. The data would support a slight drop IMO but resort growth should balance it.
Animal Kingdom
Good news overall and something interesting on the breakdown. First, the above average crowd grew 7.4% for the year, showing primarily in the 6/7 segment that grew 9.6%. Those gains primarily came from the off-peak segment that dropped 9% for the year. Peak days dropped 2%.
All of those gains described above came in the first half of 2014, split pretty evenly between the J-M & A-J quarters. The second half? damn near identical. Exact same above average crowd split and less than 1% deviation in the other segments.
So early growth in 2014 and a match of the 2103 crowds for the second half. Gonna give DAK 7% growth and go from there.
Overall Predictions?
- MK up 10%.
- EP up 5%.
- Studios Flat. 1-3% to be generous.
- DAK up 7%.
I'm really interested to see how well these numbers match up with the TEA estimates. Curious to see what matches up....
ThemeParkJunkee
Well-Known Member
I'll be interested to see how your analysis compares to the TEA estimates as well. Right now (as a spreadsheet fan myself), I am picturing your spreadsheets in my head. It's making me dizzy.
I havent used excel in 15 years. I'm still knocking the rust off. Alas I'm just looking for patterns and trying to make sense of it all.
asianway
Well-Known Member
Bingo. I believe OLC publishes attendance in their financials based on first click. Add in hopping and the 46 days of parties and MK beats TDL which makes no sense if you've ever been to TDL on a very busy day
DAK had a great first 6 months of 2014 showing some gains but then essentially had an identical 2nd half of the year as 2013.
ThemeParkJunkee
Well-Known Member
I'm glad you're doing it so I don't have to. Not bad for a rusty Excel user.
JordanNite
Well-Known Member
Take the report with a pinch of salt ...
Then I shall take my numbers as gospel instead!
JordanNite
Well-Known Member
If DHS numbers don't fall (and they won't) you can say goodbye to any Star Wars Land announcement this year.
ThemeParkJunkee
Well-Known Member
How many years can they go with "Frozen Summer Fun"? The only reason for any increase at DHS was the Frozen add-ons.