TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[articos]

I'm not even looking at last year - I'm looking at this year. Based on just eyeballing (elbowing) the crowds from Jan - May of this year, I'm predicting a very good year for the parks for 2015. There's a reason surveys are going out talking about peak vs. non-peak ticketing.

 

[PhotoDave219]

The projections are made based on multiple previous years attendance for any given day. The number do fluctuate depending on a variety of factors (weather being a biggie) but going over projectio s by 3-5k a day for months as it happened with frozen summer fun will deffinitly have an effect on year over year attendance.

That said we could debate this for hours so instead lets get some sleep and wait for the actual numbers to come out.

And this is just for fun.... I'm just tellin ya what the Touring Plans numbers tell me.

Short version? For studios, 2014 was a lot like 2013.

But since we're on the topic of just having fun....

On the topic of whether a crowd was above average (6+)? Comparing 2013 v 2014....

MK up 10% (from 45% in 2013 to 55% in 2014), Epcot up 7% (32% up to 39%), DHS Flat (Dropped 2%, 38% in 2013 to 36% in 2014) and DAK up 7%, (37% in 2013 to 44% in 2014)

Summertime, DHS vs 2013?

About the same. June, July, August pulled the same percent of average crowds (18%) yet 2014 saw fewer days with a Peak crowd by 4. 2% percent difference and I'd call that about the same.

Where I see the difference is in October, November & December. That shifted upwards in 2014, with 23 peak crowds in that 3 month period vs 9 in 2013. Crowd definitely shifted upwards at the end of the year. Fewer off-peak in that 3 month period as well than 2013, 24 in 14 vs 43 in 2013. But for the year as a whole? Frozen gave it a bump, no question. And that bump (IMO) was only enough to make a disasterous first six months.

How disasterous? Way down on peak crowds, First Six Months as compared to 2013. Down 7%, with 36 Peak in 2013 & 11 in 2014; those crowds dropped to average crowds as the off-peak was the same.

So you're right. Frozen gave a bump. Saved DHS from being a down year. And I'm calling for a 3% increase as a whole.

Comparing DHS Now to 14 & 13?

2015 is emulating 2013 numbers and shows a rebound for 2014 when comparing first 5mo of the year. The peak crowds that had dropped to average are peak once again. Although DHS looks like it pulled a peak crowd 8 of the past 9 days.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I'm not even looking at last year - I'm looking at this year. Based on just eyeballing (elbowing) the crowds from Jan - May of this year, I'm predicting a very good year for the parks for 2015. There's a reason surveys are going out talking about peak vs. non-peak ticketing.

Yes and no....

5 months into 2015 and we look remarkably like 2013 instead of 14, property wide. So far... 50op/73a/28p for 2015 with this time in 2014 breaking down 23/114/14 in 2014 and back in 13 it was 51/76/24. We had more "average" days in 2014 than this year. 2015 is showing feast or famine with both more off-peak and peak days.

Keep going you say? Keep going I shall....

In the Above Average crowds vs Below Average Crowds? Property wide.... 2015 is splitting the difference between 2013 & 14. 2015 we get the 92 days Average & below/59 Above average days split (60%/40%) with 2014 pulling 83/68 (55%/45%) and 13 pulled 101/50 (67%/33%) .

So what does each park look like?

MK? MK is weird.. 2015 has a 56% avg & below vs 44% above average. Thats way off from 2014 which had a 39%/61% split and is back in line with 2013 at a 57%/43% split. In the first 5mo of 2014, MK just did not have any slow days. 2015 has.

Ep? Good news? Upward trend. Pulling a 54%/46% split in 2015 vs a 60%/40% in 2014 and 69%/31% in 2013.

DHS? Eh. We're duplicating 2013. Seriously. Both 2015 & 2013 are pulling 67.5%/32.5% (102/49) days with the Avg & Below vs Above. 2014 was waaaaaaaay worse at 76%/24%.

DAK? Not as good as 2014 but way better than 2013. 2015 shows 57%/43% split with 2014 being 46%/54% and 2013 at 70%/46%.

For 2015 MK, EP & DAK are all roughly in line with a 54-57% crowd being average & below. Completely in line with a 60%/50% property wide split. DHS drags it down with a nasty 67.5% average and below.

Comparison wise?

2013 showed DHS, DAK & Epcot running at 67-70% average and below, in line with the resort at 67% while MK pulled 57%.

2014 is the weird one. MK pulled the insane 39% average below & DAK pulled only a 46% average and below while Ep showed 60% average & below & DAK found bottom with 76% average and below.

What does this mean? 2015 is more in line with 2013, crowd wise. They're just not matching the 2014 but are out-performing 2013.

Alas, this is just fun and games.

 

[GiveMeTheMusic]

How is it possible that MK could have more guests than TDL, a park that hits capacity regularly? MK hits capacity a handful of times a year.

I also don't buy that DHS gets anywhere near the numbers they put out. It beggars belief for a park with nothing going on.

I'm sure the TEA report will be a hoot.

 

[PhotoDave219]

How is it possible that MK could have more guests than TDL, a park that hits capacity regularly? MK hits capacity a handful of times a year.

I also don't buy that DHS gets anywhere near the numbers they put out. It beggars belief for a park with nothing going on.

I'm sure the TEA report will be a hoot.

I'm sad its pushed back a day. I wanna see if I'm even in the ballpark, estimate wise.

 

[articos]

Yes and no....

5 months into 2015 and we look remarkably like 2013 instead of 14, property wide. So far... 50op/73a/28p for 2015 with this time in 2014 breaking down 23/114/14 in 2014 and back in 13 it was 51/76/24. We had more "average" days in 2014 than this year. 2015 is showing feast or famine with both more off-peak and peak days.

Keep going you say? Keep going I shall....

In the Above Average crowds vs Below Average Crowds? Property wide.... 2015 is splitting the difference between 2013 & 14. 2015 we get the 92 days Average & below/59 Above average days split (60%/40%) with 2014 pulling 83/68 (55%/45%) and 13 pulled 101/50 (67%/33%) .

So what does each park look like?

MK? MK is weird.. 2015 has a 56% avg & below vs 44% above average. Thats way off from 2014 which had a 39%/61% split and is back in line with 2013 at a 57%/43% split. In the first 5mo of 2014, MK just did not have any slow days. 2015 has.

Ep? Good news? Upward trend. Pulling a 54%/46% split in 2015 vs a 60%/40% in 2014 and 69%/31% in 2013.

DHS? Eh. We're duplicating 2013. Seriously. Both 2015 & 2013 are pulling 67.5%/32.5% (102/49) days with the Avg & Below vs Above. 2014 was waaaaaaaay worse at 76%/24%.

DAK? Not as good as 2014 but way better than 2013. 2015 shows 57%/43% split with 2014 being 46%/54% and 2013 at 70%/46%.

For 2015 MK, EP & DAK are all roughly in line with a 54-57% crowd being average & below. Completely in line with a 60%/50% property wide split. DHS drags it down with a nasty 67.5% average and below.

Comparison wise?

2013 showed DHS, DAK & Epcot running at 67-70% average and below, in line with the resort at 67% while MK pulled 57%.

2014 is the weird one. MK pulled the insane 39% average below & DAK pulled only a 46% average and below while Ep showed 60% average & below & DAK found bottom with 76% average and below.

What does this mean? 2015 is more in line with 2013, crowd wise. They're just not matching the 2014 but are out-performing 2013.

Alas, this is just fun and games.

My brain hurts. Bravo, sir.

 

[Tony Perkis]

The only prediction I have is that Disney will make sure their numbers are higher than Universal's.

Probably. I'm sure that'll mean quicker construction for Avatar.

 

[PhotoDave219]

My brain hurts. Bravo, sir.

Okay, I'll sum up.

2015 looks more like 2013 that 2014.

They're beating 2013 numbers but not matching 2014 numbers.

Better?

 

[Next Big Thing]

I feel like a lot of people in this thread don't seem to realize that DAK is honestly performing very well. There's no way it falls below any of the Uni parks and there's certainly no way it's increase is less than DHS (and possibly Epcot). I put it at roughly 4-5% increase for DAK.

Something I feel people are overestimating is the impact Frozen had on DHS last year. I don't think Frozen did much more than keep things where where where they've been at in recent years.

 

[articos]

Okay, I'll sum up.

2015 looks more like 2013 that 2014.

They're beating 2013 numbers but not matching 2014 numbers.

Better?

Yup, thank yew! I like turtles.

 

[articos]

Okay, I'll sum up.

2015 looks more like 2013 that 2014.

They're beating 2013 numbers but not matching 2014 numbers.

Better?

I actually think fall will be strong as well. We'll see.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I feel like a lot of people in this thread don't seem to realize that DAK is honestly performing very well. There's no way it falls below any of the Uni parks and there's certainly no way it's increase is less than DHS (and possibly Epcot). I put it at roughly 4-5% increase for DAK.

Something I feel people are overestimating is the impact Frozen had on DHS last year. I don't think Frozen did much more than keep things where where where they've been at in recent years.

DAK has a better 2014 than DHS. All Frozen did for DHS was to stop the sinking ship. Yes, Frozen gave a nice bump to DHS but that was a bump up from "ghost-town" back up to something remotely passable for a theme park in Central Florida.

DHS shouldn't drop. But it was an Ugly year.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I actually think fall will be strong as well. We'll see.

Really all depends on what MK pulls and how this summer looks.

And by fall, I hope you mean October-December. September is proving itself to be WONDERFUL from my POV and awful to the accountants.

Shame they cant schedule all the rehabs from August 23rd-October 7th. Nobody would be here to notice.

 

[Next Big Thing]

DAK has a better 2014 than DHS. All Frozen did for DHS was to stop the sinking ship. Yes, Frozen gave a nice bump to DHS but that was a bump up from "ghost-town" back up to something remotely passable for a theme park in Central Florida.

DHS shouldn't drop. But it was an Ugly year.

Yes, that's exactly it. There was after all Diagon Alley that opened last summer and apart from the nothing new that DHS was going to be offering before Frozen Fun was announced to at least shift crowds, people had pretty much written DHS out of their trips or they would just go for a quick fastpass+ at some point throughout the day and then parkhop or back to the hotel.

DHS is holding on by a thread and still riding the Frozen train to keep the park afloat. You'd think, with a park in as bad of a shape as DHS is, announcements would be flowing, but nope. We don't know of anything besides TSMM is getting an extra track sometime next year.

This park needs some rides and it needs them before 2020/21. Star Wars Land should hopefully be great, but DHS can only go on for so long like this. I honestly think they have no choice almost but to add something like TSPL or else attendance WILL start to drop year over year.

 

[CSUFSteve]

To me, the only "wild card" is Universal Studios Japan vs Disneyland Paris. Despite the Harry Potter bump, it was mid-year, and since DLP was down significantly in 2013 and still beat USJ, I'm tentatively betting that it will hold off Japan. My pause is a possible attendance drain going to the Studios for Ratatouille. I seriously doubt stateside-Universal threatens Disney attendance, since that would mean growth of 20+% at IOA to beat the most vulnerable WDW park. My guess is that DCA grows more than IOA in 2014, maintaining its relative place in the world order.

Fascinating analysis from PhotoDave; now I'm really curious to see Florida's numbers! We never split out seasonal attendance like that at Disneyland... well, at least not down in the trenches. And now, kind of like you said for MK, it's like: "off-season? what is this 'off-season'??"

 

[PhotoDave219]

To me, the only "wild card" is Universal Studios Japan vs Disneyland Paris. Despite the Harry Potter bump, it was mid-year, and since DLP was down significantly in 2013 and still beat USJ, I'm tentatively betting that it will hold off Japan. My pause is a possible attendance drain going to the Studios for Ratatouille. I seriously doubt stateside-Universal threatens Disney attendance, since that would mean growth of 20+% at IOA to beat the most vulnerable WDW park. My guess is that DCA grows more than IOA in 2014, maintaining its relative place in the world order.

Fascinating analysis from PhotoDave; now I'm really curious to see Florida's numbers! We never split out seasonal attendance like that at Disneyland... well, at least not down in the trenches. And now, kind of like you said for MK, it's like: "off-season? what is this 'off-season'??"

Offseason is Labor Day and the following 10 days.

 

[AEfx]

My guess, USF will be close to DHS and DAK but not overtake them.

Which is absolutely remarkable, and if you made that statement even just a few years ago you would have been taken to the funny farm for treatment for being so mentally infirm as to even consider that possible.

 

[articos]

Really all depends on what MK pulls and how this summer looks.

And by fall, I hope you mean October-December. September is proving itself to be WONDERFUL from my POV and awful to the accountants.

Shame they cant schedule all the rehabs from August 23rd-October 7th. Nobody would be here to notice.

Agreed. On all counts. See you there in Sept.

 

[CSUFSteve]

@Next Big Thing: I'm honestly not worried about DHS (and I say that with it being my least favorite WDW park).

I mean, yes, it's weak now, has been for a while, but the fix is known and straightforward, and possibly the worst-kept secret. I was worried a few years ago; I'm not now. Frankly, there seem to be more ideas for the Studios than it'd be able to hold with present boundaries!

For now, it seems to me Tower, RnR, infinitely-running BatB, and Fantasmic! all manage to keep it afloat. Which is also a testament to the strength of those offerings. And hopefully a little love to GMR, curiosity to see the restored centerpiece, D23 Expo, give it a slight boost in 2015. IMO, Disney can weather its issues knowing it'll roar back soon enough.

 

[Next Big Thing]

@Next Big Thing: I'm honestly not worried about DHS (and I say that with it being my least favorite WDW park).

I mean, yes, it's weak now, has been for a while, but the fix is known and straightforward, and possibly the worst-kept secret. I was worried a few years ago; I'm not now. Frankly, there seem to be more ideas for the Studios than it'd be able to hold with present boundaries!

For now, it seems to me Tower, RnR, infinitely-running BatB, and Fantasmic! all manage to keep it afloat. Which is also a testament to the strength of those offerings. And hopefully a little love to GMR, curiosity to see the restored centerpiece, D23 Expo, give it a slight boost in 2015. IMO, Disney can weather its issues knowing it'll roar back soon enough.

I know, but it's 2015. Star Wars isn't rumored to open until 2020/2021. There better be something in-between or the park is going to be hurting. It's honestly BARELY hanging on right now as it is. Without Frozen last summer, the park hoestly likely would've dropped in attendance. They saved themselves from that so good on them for that, but I wouldn't want to risk mis-reading something as DHS is weathering this storm and then see a drop in attendance because of it as we wait 5-6 years still for the next attraction...

You can only weather a storm for so long before you inevitably see a drop in performance.