Interesting. I just tried to visit the blog for the report and the blog post I originally refer to is gone.
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TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd
- Thread starter PhotoDave219
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Interesting. I just tried to visit the blog for the report and the blog post I originally refer to is gone.
AEfx
Well-Known Member
That's what you get for peeking before morning!!!
CSUFSteve
Active Member
I meant in the sense that land earmarked for Star Wars, RSR, Pixar expansion, whatever... are not development pads they'd likely put anything on for any temporary attractions meant to sustain attendance.
DCA is an interesting lesson, IMO. People are fond of saying that Disney did Carsland all at once, but the truth is that DCA's makeover was clearly spread out. Midway Mania and WoC, and the ensuing quality and positive word of mouth, I think showed people that Disney was moving in the right direction. Then, Little Mermaid opening up with a true quality family attraction. And I actually think that, in a reverse psychology sort of way, all the construction walls and knowledge that Disney was spending $1 billion on DCA, plus prior quality, fed into people being curious to see what was going on.
WDSP is generally following that approach as well, though in slower fashion. Enormous popularity of Crush's Coaster, at least getting theming via Toon Studios, and now the highly lauded Ratatouille. Like I said, really interested to see how that Park fares. (Even more excited to ride it in a couple of weeks
)
CSUFSteve
Active Member
@PhotoDave219: Really fascinating stuff, man! THANKS for spending all that time on it! I agree, it'll be interesting to compare the TEA numbers.
@asianway: Re: hard to believe MK #s vs TDL... I dunno, I've always admired the strength of TDS' contribution to overall Resort attendance. We were always told at Disneyland that the intent of the second gate was partly to grow Resort attendance, but also to offload pressure from DL and, in the process, make the Resort overall a more enjoyable guest experience. I think TDR has achieved this beautifully, not just in a quality 2nd gate, but also in the quality of the infrastructure improvements. I think that, eventually (in 2020/2021 apparently haha), DHS will be the Park that relieves some pressure off of MK. Something has to give. I mean, to me, 20M is too unhealthy a standard deviation (or 2, or 3) from the rest of the Parks.
@asianway: Re: hard to believe MK #s vs TDL... I dunno, I've always admired the strength of TDS' contribution to overall Resort attendance. We were always told at Disneyland that the intent of the second gate was partly to grow Resort attendance, but also to offload pressure from DL and, in the process, make the Resort overall a more enjoyable guest experience. I think TDR has achieved this beautifully, not just in a quality 2nd gate, but also in the quality of the infrastructure improvements. I think that, eventually (in 2020/2021 apparently haha), DHS will be the Park that relieves some pressure off of MK. Something has to give. I mean, to me, 20M is too unhealthy a standard deviation (or 2, or 3
) from the rest of the Parks.
@PhotoDave219: Really fascinating stuff, man! THANKS for spending all that time on it! I agree, it'll be interesting to compare the TEA numbers.
@asianway: Re: hard to believe MK #s vs TDL... I dunno, I've always admired the strength of TDS' contribution to overall Resort attendance. We were always told at Disneyland that the intent of the second gate was partly to grow Resort attendance, but also to offload pressure from DL and, in the process, make the Resort overall a more enjoyable guest experience. I think TDR has achieved this beautifully, not just in a quality 2nd gate, but also in the quality of the infrastructure improvements. I think that, eventually (in 2020/2021 apparently haha), DHS will be the Park that relieves some pressure off of MK. Something has to give. I mean, to me, 20M is too unhealthy a standard deviation (or 2, or 3
Well we argue about crowds all the time... just trying to put things in context and a bigger picture.
CSUFSteve
Active Member
...And they're posted!
I have to admit: this is the most surprising report in a while. USJ jumped way more than I would've expected. Also surprised US grew as much as it did and IoA was flat. IMO, it implies the HP-effect at IoA is fully realized. This fall will be my 1st trip to UO, mostly because I want to see HP before it opens in LA. USH continues to not-impress me and HP there, to me, looks way too shoe-horned. I'm told UO is vastly superior to USH and feels more like a genuine theme park. I really really hope so.
Surprised DCA didn't grow more, and surprised DL grew faster than DCA. I really thought DCA would get to 9 for sure, even 9.5.
Disappointed DLP didn't show better numbers. I thought Ratatouille would result in a higher bump, but maybe, like DHS, it prevented numbers from being even worse. I'm really optimistic about Disney's increased ownership stake and what that will mean for future investment. DL is such an amazing Park, it deserves the investment to folks a reason to come back!
I have to admit: this is the most surprising report in a while. USJ jumped way more than I would've expected. Also surprised US grew as much as it did and IoA was flat. IMO, it implies the HP-effect at IoA is fully realized. This fall will be my 1st trip to UO, mostly because I want to see HP before it opens in LA. USH continues to not-impress me and HP there, to me, looks way too shoe-horned. I'm told UO is vastly superior to USH and feels more like a genuine theme park. I really really hope so.
Surprised DCA didn't grow more, and surprised DL grew faster than DCA. I really thought DCA would get to 9 for sure, even 9.5.
Disappointed DLP didn't show better numbers. I thought Ratatouille would result in a higher bump, but maybe, like DHS, it prevented numbers from being even worse. I'm really optimistic about Disney's increased ownership stake and what that will mean for future investment. DL is such an amazing Park, it deserves the investment to folks a reason to come back!
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Official Numbers from 2014 TEA: 4% at MK, 2% elsewhere- Ep/DAK/DHS.
I was way off. Really thought I was on to something. Oh well. Better not quit my day job.
Edit: UOS up 17%(!?!?) IOA Flat. 0.0 change.
I was way off. Really thought I was on to something. Oh well. Better not quit my day job.
Edit: UOS up 17%(!?!?) IOA Flat. 0.0 change.
AEfx
Well-Known Member
Wow, the list is quite interesting. While the Disney parks still beat both Universal parks (in spite of that massive jump for USO), did you ever think we'd see a day when they were within 2M of each other?
DCA better shore up, because the Potter increase at USO is assuredly continuing this year - it's within feet and inches of DCA. And I don't think there is anything of real note coming to DCA this year, is there?
DCA better shore up, because the Potter increase at USO is assuredly continuing this year - it's within feet and inches of DCA. And I don't think there is anything of real note coming to DCA this year, is there?
The one thing I completely forgot.... Revenue is more important than attendance at Disney.
Next Big Thing
Well-Known Member
More surprising to me than anything actually is the static nature of the Tokyo Parks. No wonder OLC announced multiple expansions at both TDL and TDS within the next few years.
EDIT: Also, Universal Japan cracking the top 5 and passing every stateside Disney park except DL and MK was quite a jump. I guess it had already passed 10M last year though so Potter was bound to give it a good boost.
EDIT: Also, Universal Japan cracking the top 5 and passing every stateside Disney park except DL and MK was quite a jump. I guess it had already passed 10M last year though so Potter was bound to give it a good boost.
GiveMeTheMusic
Well-Known Member
These numbers are a joke. DCA, USF and IOA have to have all surpassed at least DHS in real life. DCA's number seems low, especially given DHS, which seems like a blatant fabrication.
Also MK's 19.3 million number is absurd. Again - a park that rarely hits capacity. TDL and USJ hit capacity almost daily. TDS hits capacity way more than MK. Are we to believe MK is at 52K+ every day of the year? Every single day? I suppose it's possible, but it seems incredibly unlikely even in the post-off season world.
Universal must be pleased with a 17% jump for USF and 11% jump for USH, due to Minion Mayhem/Super Silly Fun Land there.
It's hard to take any of it seriously though - how can we sift what's true from what's not when some of it is clearly made up?
Also MK's 19.3 million number is absurd. Again - a park that rarely hits capacity. TDL and USJ hit capacity almost daily. TDS hits capacity way more than MK. Are we to believe MK is at 52K+ every day of the year? Every single day? I suppose it's possible, but it seems incredibly unlikely even in the post-off season world.
Universal must be pleased with a 17% jump for USF and 11% jump for USH, due to Minion Mayhem/Super Silly Fun Land there.
It's hard to take any of it seriously though - how can we sift what's true from what's not when some of it is clearly made up?
Next Big Thing
Well-Known Member
I can't imagine Disney is happy with BOTH Paris parks being down 4.7%, especially considering Ratatouille was supposed to help the resort last year.
Also of note for Sea World, the only remaining Sea World Park still in the top 25 is Sea World Orlando, which is hanging on by a thread (and by the time Mako comes around it may not even be in the top 25). I know Busch Gardens Tampa was still barely in the Top 25 parks as of last year.
Here's the link for anyone looking for it: http://www.teaconnect.org/images/files/TEA_103_49736_150603.pdf
Also of note for Sea World, the only remaining Sea World Park still in the top 25 is Sea World Orlando, which is hanging on by a thread (and by the time Mako comes around it may not even be in the top 25). I know Busch Gardens Tampa was still barely in the Top 25 parks as of last year.
Here's the link for anyone looking for it: http://www.teaconnect.org/images/files/TEA_103_49736_150603.pdf
Next Big Thing
Well-Known Member
Well @PhotoDave219 was predicting 20.4M based on the numbers he was calculating, so the 19.3 is fairly tame in comparison
I also think DHS has the good fortune at being at the world's most attended theme park resort, so it is still going to attract a lot of stragglers, even if the place does suck. I don't necessarily believe everything I see 100%, but I never actually thought DHS was going to lose any attendance (and it was already over 10M), so that then puts the onus on IOS, USF or DCA to gain 20-30% depending on the park just to match DHS. The highest gain was 17% and that only put USF at 8.2M.
So while the numbers may not be 100% perfect, I do think, without question, that DHS is still pulling more guests than those parks.
donsullivan
Premium Member
I've been accumulating a lot of this data for many years now as I get random pieces of it to see how it all changes over time and with the latest TEA data (whether you agree with it or not, it's a consistent source) here is what the last 17 years in Orlando has looked like.
Both charts are the same scale (topping out at 55M) for easy comparison of relative market share. All of this is based on published TEA data and as you can see I'm missing a couple of data elements for Universal Orlando prior to 2003 that if anyone has, I'd love to add to the data set I've been accumulating.
It's been my experience when looking at this data that the long term data tells a more important story than just year-to-year data elements. For example, you can clearly see the drop in Disney's numbers following 9/11 and the slow climb back over the course of a few years to get back where they were and start growing again. You can also see the slow decline at Universal Orlando when they were making no investments at all following 9/11 bottoming out in 2009 and then a steady increase each year since then. There is another small dip around the 2008 recession in Disney's numbers.
Another random data element based on all of this is the relative share of the Orlando market. Since I'm missing some of the data elements prior to 2003 the share data covers only the last 12 years from 2003. Keep in mind that this is the total attendance at all parks (excluding water parks) by each of the 3 major operators in Orlando.
EDIT: Corrected some formatting errors on the charts (no data changes)
Both charts are the same scale (topping out at 55M) for easy comparison of relative market share. All of this is based on published TEA data and as you can see I'm missing a couple of data elements for Universal Orlando prior to 2003 that if anyone has, I'd love to add to the data set I've been accumulating.
It's been my experience when looking at this data that the long term data tells a more important story than just year-to-year data elements. For example, you can clearly see the drop in Disney's numbers following 9/11 and the slow climb back over the course of a few years to get back where they were and start growing again. You can also see the slow decline at Universal Orlando when they were making no investments at all following 9/11 bottoming out in 2009 and then a steady increase each year since then. There is another small dip around the 2008 recession in Disney's numbers.
Another random data element based on all of this is the relative share of the Orlando market. Since I'm missing some of the data elements prior to 2003 the share data covers only the last 12 years from 2003. Keep in mind that this is the total attendance at all parks (excluding water parks) by each of the 3 major operators in Orlando.
EDIT: Corrected some formatting errors on the charts (no data changes)
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ThemeParkTraveller
Well-Known Member
Don't forget they saw a record increase in attendance last year (+15.9% for TDL, +11.3% for TDS), which was the catalyst for OLC to pursue the large scale expansions. They previously believed they were dealing with a mature market and didn't see further growth in their theme parks, hence the relatively low investment in new attractions in recent years.
NJBrandon
Well-Known Member
2014 Orlando Market Share Update:
MK + EPCOT + AK + DHS = 51,500,000
USF + IOA = 16,404,000
SeaWorld = 4,683,000
Total = 72,587,000
Disney Market Share = 70.9%(-0.3% from last year)
Universal Market Share = 22.6%(+1.0% from last year)
SeaWorld Market Share = 6.5%(-0.7% from last year)
MK + EPCOT + AK + DHS = 51,500,000
USF + IOA = 16,404,000
SeaWorld = 4,683,000
Total = 72,587,000
Disney Market Share = 70.9%(-0.3% from last year)
Universal Market Share = 22.6%(+1.0% from last year)
SeaWorld Market Share = 6.5%(-0.7% from last year)
IMFearless
Well-Known Member
Sad to see Typhoon Lagoon is no longer the top of the water parks list.
Next Big Thing
Well-Known Member
If you dig deeper into the numbers, SeaWorld San Diego lost 12% attendance (down 4.3M to 3.7M), on top of the 8% SeaWorld Orlando lost. SeaWorld is feelin' the hurt.
Next Big Thing
Well-Known Member
This is at least the second year in a row not topping the list.Sad to see Typhoon Lagoon is no longer the top of the water parks list.