TEA/AECOM 2013 Report

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seascape

Well-Known Member
Universal crushed Disney? Disney went up from 48,509,000 to 50,125,000 an increase of 1,616,000. Universal increased from 14,834,000 to 15,444,000 an increase of 610,000.

Yes universal had larger increase in percentage terms but Disney gained more customers. As for 2014 I expect universe to gain an even larger percentage but so what. It would take a 25% increase at IOA to reach 10,000,000 and that still would not really have either DHA or AK.

Does Disney have to take steps to keep all 4 of their parks ahead of Universal. Of course. Will they? I say yes and in fact beginning in 2022 they will have the 5 top parks in attendance in Orlando. The reason it will take until 2022 is that the 5th gate will open late in 2021 for the 50th.

Universal is a great 2 gate park but it's not Disney and will never have the advantage of all the hotel and timeshare rooms Disney has. Even Universal management knows this and that is why they say they can get to just over 10,000 hotel rooms which is about 25% of what Disney has now and just about the same number of rooms which will be built in Flamingo Crossing in the next 5 to 10 years.
 
RSoxNo1

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
Universal crushed Disney? Disney went up from 48,509,000 to 50,125,000 an increase of 1,616,000. Universal increased from 14,834,000 to 15,444,000 an increase of 610,000.

Yes universal had larger increase in percentage terms but Disney gained more customers. As for 2014 I expect universe to gain an even larger percentage but so what. It would take a 25% increase at IOA to reach 10,000,000 and that still would not really have either DHA or AK.

Does Disney have to take steps to keep all 4 of their parks ahead of Universal. Of course. Will they? I say yes and in fact beginning in 2022 they will have the 5 top parks in attendance in Orlando. The reason it will take until 2022 is that the 5th gate will open late in 2021 for the 50th.

Universal is a great 2 gate park but it's not Disney and will never have the advantage of all the hotel and timeshare rooms Disney has. Even Universal management knows this and that is why they say they can get to just over 10,000 hotel rooms which is about 25% of what Disney has now and just about the same number of rooms which will be built in Flamingo Crossing in the next 5 to 10 years.
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You got your Universal #s wrong, they had a 1,027,000 guest increase from 2012 to 2013. As for your delusion that Disney will open a new park in 2021, keep dreaming. I would expect 2 new attractions in Epcot, DHS, and DAK by then, but not a new park.
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
Scoutn757 said:
Keep in mind that 1000 AP holders could gate click 100 times in a year then walk out. That would be 100k additional shown which are ultimately nothing. Guest spending is where it's at. Attendance is just kinda meh. In wdw's case hotel occupancy, as well is the true gauges.
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You are so right on this. That is why I previously posted the correct way to compare market share in Orlando is to first compare the number of Disney and Universal season pass holders who live with 90 minutes of Orlando. The compare number of season pass holders who live further away. I am a DVC owner who has a season pass but only go about 15 times a year. Someone who lives in Orlando will most likely go many many times more but actually spend much less than I do.

As for the rest. Individual ticket sales and multi day park hoppers or two parks all makes a difference. I would like to know how many unique visitors there are to each park. That would really show what the market share was.
 
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jt04

jt04

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
Universal crushed Disney? Disney went up from 48,509,000 to 50,125,000 an increase of 1,616,000. Universal increased from 14,834,000 to 15,444,000 an increase of 610,000.

Yes universal had larger increase in percentage terms but Disney gained more customers. As for 2014 I expect universe to gain an even larger percentage but so what. It would take a 25% increase at IOA to reach 10,000,000 and that still would not really have either DHA or AK.

Does Disney have to take steps to keep all 4 of their parks ahead of Universal. Of course. Will they? I say yes and in fact beginning in 2022 they will have the 5 top parks in attendance in Orlando. The reason it will take until 2022 is that the 5th gate will open late in 2021 for the 50th.

Universal is a great 2 gate park but it's not Disney and will never have the advantage of all the hotel and timeshare rooms Disney has. Even Universal management knows this and that is why they say they can get to just over 10,000 hotel rooms which is about 25% of what Disney has now and just about the same number of rooms which will be built in Flamingo Crossing in the next 5 to 10 years.
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Thanks for breaking down the numbers. A lot of TDO bashers who had a lot to say a couple years ago and now only silence. Must be because they are busy eating crow.

Obviously the FLE has been a tremendous success even before the new coaster. And by all accounts it is a very popular new ride that should drive attendence this year.

I love being right.
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
RSoxNo1 said:
You got your Universal #s wrong, they had a 1,027,000 guest increase from 2012 to 2013. As for your delusion that Disney will open a new park in 2021, keep dreaming. I would expect 2 new attractions in Epcot, DHS, and DAK by then, but not a new park.
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You are right and I am wrong. I copied from the wrong line. Universal attendance was 15,203,00 up from 14,176,000.
 
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S

seascape

Well-Known Member
RSoxNo1 said:
You got your Universal #s wrong, they had a 1,027,000 guest increase from 2012 to 2013. As for your delusion that Disney will open a new park in 2021, keep dreaming. I would expect 2 new attractions in Epcot, DHS, and DAK by then, but not a new park.
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AK will have several new ride just in Pandora. DHS will have a new Star Wars area and Epcot will have at least 1 new country and a few new rides also well before 2021. There will also be a new gate as a 50th birthday present to Disney World in honor of Walt and his vision. All the groundwork has been done on the infrastructure to make this a reality. The last pieces are the extra hotel and timeshare rooms which Flamingo Crossing and the next large DVC resolve. The ideas for themes are all over the place but I like the idea of an Orlando version of DCA and near the MK.
 
asianway

asianway

Well-Known Member
Bolt said:
In regards to DHS vs. DAK - it's all based on where you click first. So - people often start their day at DAK and then hop somewhere else that has a nighttime show. DHS might be last of the four parks, but probably has a higher overall attendance.
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No it's not. These guys measure total clicks so hopping gets counted twice. You are correct in that's how Disney tracks internally.
 
danlb_2000

danlb_2000

Premium Member
Original Poster
seascape said:
AK will have several new ride just in Pandora. DHS will have a new Star Wars area and Epcot will have at least 1 new country and a few new rides also well before 2021. There will also be a new gate as a 50th birthday present to Disney World in honor of Walt and his vision. All the groundwork has been done on the infrastructure to make this a reality. The last pieces are the extra hotel and timeshare rooms which Flamingo Crossing and the next large DVC resolve. The ideas for themes are all over the place but I like the idea of an Orlando version of DCA and near the MK.
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Two rides for Avatar seems likely, as does a Star Wars area, probably with at least one new ride but 2021, but there is no evidence to support a new country in Epcot or a 5th gate by 2021.
 
jt04

jt04

Well-Known Member
danlb_2000 said:
Two rides for Avatar seems likely, as does a Star Wars area, probably with at least one new ride but 2021, but there is no evidence to support a new country in Epcot or a 5th gate by 2021.
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Actually I thought Cameron said several rides. I expect that includes one or two C ticket type attractions and possible a walk through. Perhaps A thru E. One of each.
 
jt04

jt04

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
AK will have several new ride just in Pandora. DHS will have a new Star Wars area and Epcot will have at least 1 new country and a few new rides also well before 2021. There will also be a new gate as a 50th birthday present to Disney World in honor of Walt and his vision. All the groundwork has been done on the infrastructure to make this a reality. The last pieces are the extra hotel and timeshare rooms which Flamingo Crossing and the next large DVC resolve. The ideas for themes are all over the place but I like the idea of an Orlando version of DCA and near the MK.
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Agree with about 85% of this. 5th gate opening by 2026. They will need several more DVC's first. IMO.
 
S

seascape

Well-Known Member
jt04 said:
Agree with about 85% of this. 5th gate opening by 2026. They will need several more DVC's first. IMO.
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Get ready to be torn apart by the Universal fans who wear their universal colored glasses. But I am happy for someone who agrees with me before the coming onslaught.
 
lazyboy97o

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
Get ready to be torn apart by the Universal fans who wear their universal colored glasses. But I am happy for someone who agrees with me before the coming onslaught.
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It has nothing to do with being Universal fans. Any Disney fan should hope against a fifth gate. Disney's Animal Kingdom failed to get people to stay longer. The additional costs of a separate theme park simply cannot be justified without longer stays where guests spend more money. Unless there is a dramatic shift in how Americans vacation a fifth gate will only spread Walt Disney World's financial resources even thinner while also dedicating an even larger portion of those resources to basic operations.
 

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