Tasha is in a great position, but she is the least deserving female out there right now. She'd be stupid to go with the guys, as Jeremy and Spencer are 1, 2 in terms of who the people are with the best chance to win should they get to the final three. Joe was just too big of a threat. I liked Joe, but he wasn't one of my favorites. His social gameplay continued to lack from last season to this season. He's not good on making the personal connections.
Based on Keith throwing out the Tasha vote, he clearly has no idea what's going on. He continues to float by without being strategic, or even really social. He's the biggest afterthought of the season.
As for my power rankings...
1. Keith - he has a legitimate shot at winning immunity, and he's never been mentioned when votes have been cast.
2. Tasha - I have a feeling she'll be the deciding vote in the next episode. Whether the all-girls alliance happens or not will come down to her.
3. Jeremy - He could very well be the target of the next vote should the all-girls alliance play out, but if he senses it's him, he could play his idol.
4. Kelley - she's clearly the biggest female threat left in the game, but she has an idol and won't be afraid to use it to save herself again.
5. Kimmi - she's the mastermind behind the all-girls alliance concept, but she'll be safe if the alliance unfolds. However, if Tasha doesn't align with the girls, then she's a big target for the betrayal of Jeremy's "alliance".
6. Abi - She was the target in this game, and Joe planted a seed in the minds of Jeremy and Spencer as to why she's a threat. And to be honest, she has not played a bad game. Reckless at times, but she has been the deciding vote many times.
7. Spencer - I put him near the bottom every week because it's him and Jeremy as the top two targets with Joe gone. Spencer doesn't have an idol to protect him, and his best bet would be to win immunity - a realistic scenario with Joe out. If the all-girls alliance pans out, Spencer could be the target.
As for the all-girls alliance, I think Jeremy would be the first target. And with Jeremy in-the-know of this alliance, he could play his idol. That would save him, making he votes of Spencer, Keith and himself huge. Whether that even happens is a different discussion. Tasha has not always made the smartest moves this season, but she might realize it's time to make the big play to have a chance at the million dollars.