Survivor 45 Discussion Thread

[PUSH]

This week's episode was a huge dud. There was potential for the minority to grab the people on the bottom, but the twist negated any chance of that. Jeff... you're trying to take people's votes away to make it hard to have any straightforward votes, but doing so caused exactly that. The strong, majority alliance maintained their votes, and you took away the votes from the players who might flip.

Pretty much every part of this episode was boring. I don't know why they thought solving math equations would be entertaining on prime time television. I wouldn't have had a problem with the dullness of the episode if they hadn't thrown the twist into the challenge.

I think Drew slipped up for the first time this season. He's been playing beautifully, but he had to rebuttal to Emily throwing out Dee's name. He and Austin are making it very clear that they value Dee and Julie more than Emily.

This might sound crazy, but I'm getting closer to seeing a Bruce win as a possibility. If he can make it to the end after dodging all those votes, that's nothing to discount. It'd have to be with the right people, but is it crazier than a Gabler win? Gabler may have been more well-liked, but I feel like Bruce has had more control in the game.

Here are my updated winner rankings...

Tier 1 (Best Chance to Win)
1. Dee (+1)
2. Drew (-1)
3. Emily (-)
4. Austin (-, but moved up a tier)

Tier 2 (With the Right Moves/People)
5. Bruce (+1)
6. Jake (-1)

Tier 3 (Outside Chance)
7. Julie (+1)
8. Katurah (-1)

Tier 4 (No Chance)
None

 

[Jedijax719]

This week's episode was a huge dud. There was potential for the minority to grab the people on the bottom, but the twist negated any chance of that. Jeff... you're trying to take people's votes away to make it hard to have any straightforward votes, but doing so caused exactly that. The strong, majority alliance maintained their votes, and you took away the votes from the players who might flip.

Pretty much every part of this episode was boring. I don't know why they thought solving math equations would be entertaining on prime time television. I wouldn't have had a problem with the dullness of the episode if they hadn't thrown the twist into the challenge.

I think Drew slipped up for the first time this season. He's been playing beautifully, but he had to rebuttal to Emily throwing out Dee's name. He and Austin are making it very clear that they value Dee and Julie more than Emily.

This might sound crazy, but I'm getting closer to seeing a Bruce win as a possibility. If he can make it to the end after dodging all those votes, that's nothing to discount. It'd have to be with the right people, but is it crazier than a Gabler win? Gabler may have been more well-liked, but I feel like Bruce has had more control in the game.

Here are my updated winner rankings...

Tier 1 (Best Chance to Win)
1. Dee (+1)
2. Drew (-1)
3. Emily (-)
4. Austin (-, but moved up a tier)

Tier 2 (With the Right Moves/People)
5. Bruce (+1)
6. Jake (-1)

Tier 3 (Outside Chance)
7. Julie (+1)
8. Katurah (-1)

Tier 4 (No Chance)
None

The only change I would make is to put Bruce in tier 4 (no chance). This guy is a complete mess. His sentimental moment last season seems to really only be a way to give him his swan song before leaving. It can't be next week due to his idol (unless they REALLY make him somehow feel comfortable), but it will come soon. Everyone else seems to be in the right spot to me.

 

[PUSH]

The only change I would make is to put Bruce in tier 4 (no chance). This guy is a complete mess. His sentimental moment last season seems to really only be a way to give him his swan song before leaving. It can't be next week due to his idol (unless they REALLY make him somehow feel comfortable), but it will come soon. Everyone else seems to be in the right spot to me.

I think edit reading has changed in the new era. I'm not saying Bruce is going to win, but every winner except for Yam Yam has been shown as a major liability (or not at all) early in the season. Erika was purpled. Maryanne was a social liability. Gabler was willing to take the fall and be voted out. A Bruce win is not out of the realm of possibility with how modern Survivor has gone.

 

[Jedijax719]

I think edit reading has changed in the new era. I'm not saying Bruce is going to win, but every winner except for Yam Yam has been shown as a major liability (or not at all) early in the season. Erika was purpled. Maryanne was a social liability. Gabler was willing to take the fall and be voted out. A Bruce win is not out of the realm of possibility with how modern Survivor has gone.

The closest would be Gabler. He was pretty much like Bruce pre-merge but then he quieted down after the merge. In that season, Gabler's Katurah was Ellie and Gabler cut her off at the fake merge.

I definitely wouldn't say Erika was purpled. Her first and fourth episodes were actually pretty good and focused on her a good deal. After the merge, her edit was solid. Bruce could make it to the end, but his edit has been consistently negative except for the last episode when he talked about his family. But someone who everyone wants out cannot win.

I would say that Drew and Austin have good edits (albeit Austin's is a bit shallow and Drew is extremely gamebot and a bit arrogant, but that is a lot like Tyson's). Dee and Emily seem to have the overall best edits, but I can't imagine them letting Emily get to the end. She's likely the person with the best chance of beating everyone and it would be the most amazing underdog story in Survivor history. Dee is a combination of Parvati and Kim. When you really get down to it, she's been a focus even when she doesn't have a ton of confessionals. But there's only been a few episodes where she didn't have a handful of confessionals. All the other times, people are talking about fearing her at the end. It seems too obvious when they do that and feels like a red flag. We saw that with Ricard, Mike, and Jesse. But we also saw that with Yam Yam. I think they do that sometimes when they want to trick the audience into thinking "there's no way the person outed to be the biggest threat could possibly win". Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. They have done it several times though, starting with Ethan in S3. They also did that with Tom (S10), Yul (S13), Kim (S24), I think with Tony (WaW), and probably a couple more. (Yeah, I am a Survivor geek lol).

 

[PUSH]

The closest would be Gabler. He was pretty much like Bruce pre-merge but then he quieted down after the merge. In that season, Gabler's Katurah was Ellie and Gabler cut her off at the fake merge.

I definitely wouldn't say Erika was purpled. Her first and fourth episodes were actually pretty good and focused on her a good deal. After the merge, her edit was solid. Bruce could make it to the end, but his edit has been consistently negative except for the last episode when he talked about his family. But someone who everyone wants out cannot win.

I would say that Drew and Austin have good edits (albeit Austin's is a bit shallow and Drew is extremely gamebot and a bit arrogant, but that is a lot like Tyson's). Dee and Emily seem to have the overall best edits, but I can't imagine them letting Emily get to the end. She's likely the person with the best chance of beating everyone and it would be the most amazing underdog story in Survivor history. Dee is a combination of Parvati and Kim. When you really get down to it, she's been a focus even when she doesn't have a ton of confessionals. But there's only been a few episodes where she didn't have a handful of confessionals. All the other times, people are talking about fearing her at the end. It seems too obvious when they do that and feels like a red flag. We saw that with Ricard, Mike, and Jesse. But we also saw that with Yam Yam. I think they do that sometimes when they want to trick the audience into thinking "there's no way the person outed to be the biggest threat could possibly win". Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. They have done it several times though, starting with Ethan in S3. They also did that with Tom (S10), Yul (S13), Kim (S24), I think with Tony (WaW), and probably a couple more. (Yeah, I am a Survivor geek lol).

If it's Bruce, Julie, and Katurah, I could see Bruce winning. He's the underdog. He didn't flip like Katurah. And the jury could go after Julie for not pulling any strings in her majority alliance.

It'd actually be hilarious is Bruce and Katurah were in the final three together.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Emily has the opportunity to really change the game and is probably the one smart person to do so. The problem is that none of the remaining Belo's seem to have a brain cell between them so that's a HUGE problem.

Next week should be the opportune time for the bottom 3 (Bruce, Jake, Katurah, maybe Emily) to make a move but it just seems so unlikely. They've been actively working against each other in the shadow of a 5-person majority.

Next week is maybe the last and best opportunity. Assuming the majority 5 (or 6 with Katurah for example) do a 3-3 split to protect against and/or flush the idol, it just takes one person (Emily or Katurah) to flip, identify the 3-vote target, get the idol played, and win a 3-3-2 vote.

That would require people like Katurah and Bruce to work together, and for Bruch to play his idol on someone else. It seems impossible.

This week's episode was a huge dud. There was potential for the minority to grab the people on the bottom, but the twist negated any chance of that. Jeff... you're trying to take people's votes away to make it hard to have any straightforward votes, but doing so caused exactly that. The strong, majority alliance maintained their votes, and you took away the votes from the players who might flip.

Yep, they've highlighted this on RHAP a few times. Same as the mergatory vote. The show does these splits thinking they're more interesting, but the opposite happens. The two groups of six voting separately play it safe because the risk of backfiring on yourself is greater and they don't want to step on the toes of their allies in another group.

The only way this week's twist is interesting is if someone on the bottom is paired with two people from the majority and throws the challenge to negate their votes.

 

[Jedijax719]

Next week should be the opportune time for the bottom 3 (Bruce, Jake, Katurah, maybe Emily) to make a move but it just seems so unlikely. They've been actively working against each other in the shadow of a 5-person majority.

Next week is maybe the last and best opportunity. Assuming the majority 5 (or 6 with Katurah for example) do a 3-3 split to protect against and/or flush the idol, it just takes one person (Emily or Katurah) to flip, identify the 3-vote target, get the idol played, and win a 3-3-2 vote.

That would require people like Katurah and Bruce to work together, and for Bruch to play his idol on someone else. It seems impossible.



Yep, they've highlighted this on RHAP a few times. Same as the mergatory vote. The show does these splits thinking they're more interesting, but the opposite happens. The two groups of six voting separately play it safe because the risk of backfiring on yourself is greater and they don't want to step on the toes of their allies in another group.

The only way this week's twist is interesting is if someone on the bottom is paired with two people from the majority and throws the challenge to negate their votes.

Or if Reba splits their votes (2 for Bruce, 2 for Jake) thinking that Emily and Kat are with them, then it makes it much easier for Bruce/Jake/Katurah/Emily to put 4 votes on Julie or Drew (assuming that Austin will play his idol for himself or Dee). The only person who would be able to orchestrate that is Emily. Bruce is my-way-or-the-highway. Kat is willing to sabotage everything to get rid of Bruce and has said so. Jake is even more clueless.

As for flipping, it is fine and sometimes even respectable as long as it doesn't tank an entire tribe. Ask Sarah and Tony about that. They both flipped a lot in their respective first season wins before WaW. But Katurah's flipping seems designed to destroy her tribe. That's the "bad" kind of flipping. If Emily were to abandon Drew and Austin, it could be considered "good" flipping because she is flying solo.

 

[PUSH]

This was a good episode. We saw a lot of personal stuff about the players, but it was all natural. It was interesting seeing how multiple plans were spoiled, but somehow they all came together at the end to vote our Bruce.

I felt like Emily had a really strong episode, but I wonder how this reflects on her if she makes it to the final three. I think most people will respect it, but I could see Bruce holding it against her. I also like how this was a strong move to not get Bruce to play the idol, but it's not a move that's going to put a huge target on her.

I think this puts Emily in a great position. She's with the Reba 4, but also in the middle of two groups. If she flips tonight, it likely puts her name on the chopping block sooner than later. It's not crazy to assume Austin/Drew and Dee/Julie will go after each other. The swing is Emily. Whether that happens at 7 or 5, she is in a swing position.

The implosion of Belo has been crazy. They had every opportunity to take out Reba, but couldn't work together. It's been so easy for Reba. Dalton Ross made a comment on Twitter saying how it remind him of Cochran and Dawn being surprised how easy it was to get to the end, because players kept blowing up their own games. That's pretty much Belo.

I do wonder if Julie betrays Drew at some point. The conversation where they were both crying, and Drew says they're good no matter what... it makes me think Julie betrays him.

At this point, I have a really hard time believing that Katurah or Jake can win. Jake is becoming the Owen of the season. He can't get a footing. Katurah really hasn't made any moves to position herself well in the long run. She's really just been setting herself up to get by until she isn't needed anymore, which is coming up soon. She's had no agency.

Both Jake and Katurah are getting close to being in the "No Chance" category. I don't know if they could beat anyone above them.

And with that, here's my winner rankings...

Tier 1 (Best Chance to Win)
1. Dee (+1)
2. Emily (+1)
3. Drew (-1)
4. Austin (-)

Tier 2 (With the Right Moves/People)
5. Julie (+2)

Tier 3 (Outside Chance)
6. Jake (-, but moved down a tier)
7. Katurah (+1)

Tier 4 (No Chance)
None

 

[PUSH]

Also, Emily's transformation has been incredible. From calling Bruce out on the mat at the marooning, to being the unanimous first boot, to now having the social capital to lull Bruce into a sense of comfort to not play his idol. She's a fantastic player, and I'm really rooting for her to win.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

That was funny watching seven people ecstatic over voting out Bruce, with at least two of them being completely oblivious to the fact that they just blew their one chance to win.

I'm a bit appalled the gave Katurah a letter from a family member she cut off. I hope she agreed to that, because if not, yikes. People cut off family for a reason so it could be getting a letter from one's abuser.

I'm not super convinced of Emily's positioning. I wonder if she's truly on the bottom of that five and is overestimating her agency.

 

[Jedijax719]

Very well-executed move on Emily's part, but not necessarily the best move. If they got Reba to split and then pile 4 votes (Emily, Bruce, Jake, Katurah) onto a Reba THEN it would have been a great AND the best move. Now Reba has the advantage so back to square one. Emily may have made a bold move but also cost herself the game at the same time.

An Emily win would be great. But I can't see it happening because I can't imagine anyone letting her in the finals. If she makes it to the finals, she wins. But like I said, the last move may have prevented that from happening due to a lack of foresight. Dee was completely neglected this past episode which is VERY odd, but I still think she has the best chances. A Julie win would be pretty good too at this point.

Katurah and Jake are completely lost like little puppies.

 

[PUSH]

I think if Emily flips on Reba now, she becomes the immediate target. In the new era, making a move this early hasn't worked out.

 

[Smiley/OCD]

I said from the beginning that Emily was my favorite to at least make it into the final 3…
The thing that makes me shake my head is time and again, all these so called “super fan” contestants make the same STUPID mistakes…they just can’t keep the fact they have an idol to themselves and end up going home with it after getting blindsided…you can, and must, have allies in the game in order to win BUT geez, keep the idol to yourself! At the very least, if it becomes known that you have it, USE IT, and survive another week.
No sympathy for Bruce…NONE

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I think if Emily flips on Reba now, she becomes the immediate target. In the new era, making a move this early hasn't worked out.

Very true.

I can see her making top 5 if both pairs from the majority think she's with them. She has been with Drew and Austin but took the girls on reward so is smack dab in the middle with trust on both sides, potentially.

No one else seems poised to make a big move so her quieter game could win out. Two idols mean nothing if your majority is cruising to the end unopposed.

 

[Jedijax719]

I think if Emily flips on Reba now, she becomes the immediate target. In the new era, making a move this early hasn't worked out.

It's no longer early though. Reba could control the game the rest of the way. That is what would make Emily an immediate target. Both Katurah and Jake are great goats at this point. Emily is strategic and well liked so she would theoretically be target #1 if Reba sticks together. I actually thought Drew was going to be voted out last night. The previews show a discord among Reba but, once again, it's likely a red flag. That is unless people are talking about the final 5 and final 4 and want to avoid being voted out then. Austin has an idol and an amulate for an extra vote so they could drop a Reba and be fine. But why and who and at what cost of loyalty?

 

[Smiley/OCD]

Just remember, now that Bruce went home with an idol, there should be another one out there…let’s see who finds it…

 

[Jedijax719]

Just remember, now that Bruce went home with an idol, there should be another one out there…let’s see who finds it…

Does it still work that way? My guess is that it's Jake that finds it. But we'll see. Would be great if Emily finds out. That may be the only way she can get past the final 6. Right now, I can't see that happening.

 

[PUSH]

Does it still work that way? My guess is that it's Jake that finds it. But we'll see. Would be great if Emily finds out. That may be the only way she can get past the final 6. Right now, I can't see that happening.

I think it does. Last season, they introduced an idol late in the game, that Lauren almost found hidden in the trees by the shoreline.

Production loves idols, so I would be surprised if it isn't put back into circulation. If it's not shown, my guess is it was never found.

 

[PUSH]

It's no longer early though. Reba could control the game the rest of the way. That is what would make Emily an immediate target. Both Katurah and Jake are great goats at this point. Emily is strategic and well liked so she would theoretically be target #1 if Reba sticks together. I actually thought Drew was going to be voted out last night. The previews show a discord among Reba but, once again, it's likely a red flag. That is unless people are talking about the final 5 and final 4 and want to avoid being voted out then. Austin has an idol and an amulate for an extra vote so they could drop a Reba and be fine. But why and who and at what cost of loyalty?

It's not early, but it's early enough to guarantee a kiss of death if she flips. If she flips, do you really think Jake and Katurah will be loyal to her? They'll both view her as a massive threat. Bruce may be loyal, but he's only one person.

I'm not saying it's ideal, but I think it's the best move for her own game. Ideally, Belo would have been able to function, and Emily could have latched on to that. But Emily is a very logical player. The remaining Belo players are not logical players. They're chaotic and unpredictable. Is there really a predictable path to the end with them? It'd be the best case scenario if she could get there with two other Belo, but I'm not sure they can band together and pull that off. So might as well keep your loyalty to Reba, if that's likely who's going to end up controlling the end game anyway.

 

[Smiley/OCD]

Does it still work that way? My guess is that it's Jake that finds it. But we'll see. Would be great if Emily finds out. That may be the only way she can get past the final 6. Right now, I can't see that happening.

If I remember correctly that was still occurring last season…I want Emily to win, so if it’s out there, she REALLY needs to find it AND NOT TELL ANYONE ELSE