Survivor 45 Discussion Thread

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Until now my only knock against her is that it seemed too easy to be in control, i.e. everyone who should or could have been fighting back against her alliance seemed to be pushovers.

This week combined with last really showed her level of control, awareness, and ability to keep a secret.
I think what's really amazing about what she's done is how she's positioned herself for the end game. Within the Reba 4, she was always in the majority no matter what way it falls. She's talked about how she has two #1s, and they both believe she is their #1. And then when you peel outside that layer, Katurah views Dee as her #1. Even though she should be the biggest target, I can see her using Julie, Austin, and Katurah to get to the final four. Then I could see one of those players (maybe Austin) taking her to the final 3.

The biggest if is Jake's idol. If he can single-handedly vote out Dee, he could win.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Julie is still target numero uno and is now seen as the biggest threat. So she will still be the one on the block in the final 5 barring immunity. Then, if she goes, Austin and Dee are the biggest threats to win immunity in the final 4. I cannot see a scenario where either Kat or Jake wins F4 immunity. So, either Austin wins and takes Dee or visa versa. EXCEPT, as we've seen with Dee, she's playing hardball so she may not even take Austin. So, either way, if Dee makes the final 4, she is EXTREMELY likely to make the finals with the fire challenge format. She would beat Austin in the finals because she made moves and Austin, well, kinda fizzled and was played. Against Kat and Jake, it's a wash out.

So Dee has to make it the next round and if she does, she wins the entire game unless a freak event takes place and Kat or Jake win F4 immunity.
 

Smiley/OCD

Well-Known Member
Since my pick, Emily was voted out, my vote goes to Jake…i love an underdog, and he’s this season’s Rodney Dangerfield…he got NO respect…
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Dee is my winner pick. Next in line is Jake for me. It would be Julie, but I don't think she'll make to final three. Here's my prediction...

5th place: Julie
4th place: Katurah
3rd place: Austin
2nd place: Jake
1st place: Dee
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
I thought that was a highly entertaining finale episode of Survivor, despite the fact that the outcome felt inevitable the moment Katurah switched her vote and didn't take out Dee. Everything after that felt like smoke and mirrors a bit.

A common observation of this season has been how it's the story of how people lost, not how Dee won. Totally get that. Jake was the hapless guy who couldn't manage to make a move. The way he fumbled the final five challenge then got emotional at the final challenge were moments that the producers must dream of. Great TV and fits the narrative.

Katurah obviously sealed her own fate tonight while also torpedoing what would have been Jake's big move.

The episode did a great job showing us why Katurah did that. It made sense she didn't trust Jake. It made sense he didn't tell her because he wanted the moment to be impactful.

And then there's Dee. While it felt like she was shooting fish in a barrel for much of the game, we got the explanation of just how good she was. Her social game gave her a stranglehold and she'll be rightfully lauded as a great winner because of it. She demonstrated that big flashy moves aren't the be all or end all, and can actually be a hindrance in this era due to becoming a threat.

The final vote was closer than I expected.
 

PUSH

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Original Poster
It was a very good finale. Normally finales are pretty slow, and nothing too interesting happens. But even though we pretty much knew the outcome, the culmination of season-long storylines was fantastic. I think that's a credit to the 90-minute episodes.

We saw Jake's story conclude. He was the guy who never could get any momentum and suffered failure after failure. But he finally had success when he made fire.

Then we saw the Austin and Dee showmance and how that turned out. Ultimately the player who withheld the most information won.

The final five vote was crazy. Not one single player knew what was going to happen. If Jake and Katurah had communicated, they could have gotten Dee out. But that's the storyline of Belo... they can't effectively communicate and collaborate.

I think Dee played one of the best games of all-time. I'm not sure exactly where she will rank, but I'll do those a little later. Just based on gut, it's going to be pretty high. Her social game was impeccible, and she showed that sticking with people you trust is a good way to go. She also showed that you can have two #1 allies. Yes, she got lucky by being put on Reba, and she even admitted that. But she worked with the cards she was dealt. She was the ultimate triple-threat. She was great socially, strategically, and physically. It's similar to a Parvati or Kim.

We have also heard how awful Lulu was this season, but Belo was even worse IMO. Lulu couldn't win challenges. Belo could, but played such bad strategic games. Nothing they did ever made strategic sense. Kellie was the only one who was playing well, and that's why she went so early. I imagine Brando would have as well, had he lasted longer. I don't think we're talking enough about how bad Belo was. However, it led to good entertainment.

I thought Austin got more votes than he should have. It honestly should have been a clean sweep for Dee. I get why Drew voted for him, but Kendra and Bruce are both some of those players I mentioned who didn't do much that made sense strategically. I just can't see how you can point to Austin and say that he did anything better than Dee. Maybe one-on-one relationships with those specific players, but Dee was superior than him in every phase of the game.

Overall, it was a good season. I loved the finale. There were some low points with the quits, but ultimately they led to better outcomes down the road. Imagine if Hannah had stayed, and they voted out Emily first. Sean quitting showed Dee's ruthless side of still voting for Sifu, and then we got the drama surrounding Sifu and J. There was also a Pagonging of sorts, but it was a more entertaining version. And I enjoy seeing good gameplay.

I will do my winner, season, and player rankings in a little bit. I'll share them when I'm done.
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
The final five vote was crazy. Not one single player knew what was going to happen. If Jake and Katurah had communicated, they could have gotten Dee out. But that's the storyline of Belo... they can't effectively communicate and collaborate.

I thought Austin got more votes than he should have. It honestly should have been a clean sweep for Dee. I get why Drew voted for him, but Kendra and Bruce are both some of those players I mentioned who didn't do much that made sense strategically. I just can't see how you can point to Austin and say that he did anything better than Dee. Maybe one-on-one relationships with those specific players, but Dee was superior than him in every phase of the game.

That final five vote will generate thousands of hours of podcast analysis alone. It was so crazy. Julie basically voted herself out. Had she voted Dee I imagine she wins out on a revote. I'm sure someone will outline all the different ways that could have gone.

An Austin win would have been a hilarious result to be honest, one last bad decision from a cast that, let's be honest, made a lot of bad decisions.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
That final five vote will generate thousands of hours of podcast analysis alone. It was so crazy. Julie basically voted herself out. Had she voted Dee I imagine she wins out on a revote. I'm sure someone will outline all the different ways that could have gone.

An Austin win would have been a hilarious result to be honest, one last bad decision from a cast that, let's be honest, made a lot of bad decisions.
The Reba 4 were the only ones making smart decisions. And then down at the end, Drew and Austin made plenty of bad decisions. Julie had one or two as well. Dee is the only one who made pretty much no bad decision, at least that we saw.
 

PUSH

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Original Poster
Here are my rankings...

Season ranking: #19 (behind Tocantins, ahead of Survivor 42)

Winner ranking: #3 (behind Kim, ahead of Todd)... when comparing her to Todd, I just thought she played better socially and physically. Todd may only have the edge strategically, but I think Dee played a better all-around game than almost all winners. I only have Tony (40) and Kim ahead of her. It very well could change once recency bias wears off.

Some highlights on player rankings... Dee is #10 all-time. Emily is the only other one in the top 100, landing at 86. Kellie landed just outside at 103. Julie as well, at 108. Kaleb was 114. Austin landed at 161. Sabiyah was as high as 236. One of my higher pre-merge boots. Jake was 319. Hannah ranked at #678, which only one player is lower. The person ranked lower is he-who-shall-not-be-named from season 39. I also should mention that Jackson Fox from Survivor 42 is not ranked, since he never really player or got to strategize.

If I was ranking new era seasons it'd go as follows...

1. 45
2. 42
3. 44
4. 41
5. 43
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
The Reba 4 were the only ones making smart decisions. And then down at the end, Drew and Austin made plenty of bad decisions. Julie had one or two as well. Dee is the only one who made pretty much no bad decision, at least that we saw.

Dee's only misstep was perhaps not controlling that final five vote. She didn't have Austin or Julie voting with her. She was very lucky that Katurah didn't vote for her.

Graphic courtesy of Reddit.

1703200793108.png
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
If I was ranking new era seasons it'd go as follows...

1. 45
2. 42
3. 44
4. 41
5. 43

It's hard to compare because the 90-minute episodes make the seasons night and day in my opinion, in terms of how much gameplay and story we got to see.

They showed us the machinations behind the votes in thorough detail, whereas before there was only time to show a bead idol being assembled for example.

So I rank this season at the top from an enjoyment perspective, but from the gameplay angle? Not so sure. Dee was great but man was she helped by a lot of bad gameplay.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It's hard to compare because the 90-minute episodes make the seasons night and day in my opinion, in terms of how much gameplay and story we got to see.

They showed us the machinations behind the votes in thorough detail, whereas before there was only time to show a bead idol being assembled for example.

So I rank this season at the top from an enjoyment perspective, but from the gameplay angle? Not so sure. Dee was great but man was she helped by a lot of bad gameplay.
When I ranked it, I took into account everything. The gameplay, the story telling, the cast, etc. Obviously the 90-minute episodes bump it up a lot. When I think of casts, I probably like 44 and 42's casts better. But in totality, I think 45 was the superior season, and a lot of that has to do with the 90 minutes.

If we were looking at strategy and gameplay, 42 was probably better. However, a lot of really good seasons have pretty bad strategy.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Dee actually got VERY lucky in the final 5. She was lucky that Katurah was SUCH an AWFUL player. And the fact that Dee saw Katurah as a possible threat was the most head-scratching moment in the season. The jury reaction verified that statement. They were all like " you talking about?". Katurah was one of the WORST players I can remember in a long time and should have been taken to the end.

But you have to hand it to Dee for having the confidence to bring Austin to the end (even though she was a much better player overall).
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Dee actually got VERY lucky in the final 5. She was lucky that Katurah was SUCH an AWFUL player. And the fact that Dee saw Katurah as a possible threat was the most head-scratching moment in the season. The jury reaction verified that statement. They were all like " you talking about?". Katurah was one of the WORST players I can remember in a long time and should have been taken to the end.

But you have to hand it to Dee for having the confidence to bring Austin to the end (even though she was a much better player overall).
I wonder if Katurah had stronger relationships than we saw. That happens pretty frequently. I remember hearing Kara from DvG was a huge social player, and we really didn't see much from her because she never really played into the story of the season.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I was pretty spot on with my predictions for the finale. The only difference was that Jake came in third and Austin in second. I predicted that thinking Jake's idol was going to work to get out Julie. Had I known otherwise, I would have said Austin second and Jake third.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
We already have more female winners in the 40s than we did in the 30s. Two in the 30s. Three so far in the 40s.
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
When I ranked it, I took into account everything. The gameplay, the story telling, the cast, etc. Obviously the 90-minute episodes bump it up a lot. When I think of casts, I probably like 44 and 42's casts better. But in totality, I think 45 was the superior season, and a lot of that has to do with the 90 minutes.

If we were looking at strategy and gameplay, 42 was probably better. However, a lot of really good seasons have pretty bad strategy.

This is why the show has endured for so long in my opinion.

Unlike a scripted show, there's no clear or predictable outcome that would be universally considered to be a good one.

Big strategy can win out. Pure social skill can win out. There's luck and randomness involved.

This season gave us a winner who had a crazy good social game but also benefitted from some dumbfounding moves.

Maryanne had the good sense to take out Omar. Julie failed to do the same with Dee when given the chance. The fact that Dee had the social capital for that to happen is amazing. The show is fun and unpredictable because of people doing things against their own best interest.

In other news, casting is open for Survivor UK series 2. Australia returns in less than two months. Several Survivor USA alum are on the second season of the Traitors in January.

1703226160586.png
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Here are the players from 45 that I would really like to see play again, in no particular order...

Sabiyah
Kaleb
Kellie
Emily
Dee

Here are ones I'd be happy to see again, but wouldn't be devastated if I don't...

Drew
Julie
Austin
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
I'd say Emily is THE star of the season and is as much of a slam dunk to return as Devens, Jesse, Mike, and Carolyn. In other words 100% no question.

By the way, 46 looks promising and looks like an eclectic cast. The production and Probst were supposedly pumped about it.

There are no spoilers for season 46. However, one can use some sleuthing to reveal a POSSIBLE group of people (not the entire thing) in the final 5. PM me if you want to know more.
 

PUSH

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I'd say Emily is THE star of the season and is as much of a slam dunk to return as Devens, Jesse, Mike, and Carolyn. In other words 100% no question.
Mike from 42? He's honestly pretty far down on my list of players I want to see come back from the new era.

I'd say that these would be bigger slam dunks from each season...

41: Shan, Ricard
42: Omar, Maryanne, Jonathan (though I don't agree with him)
43: Jesse
44: Carolyn, Yam Yam, Carson
45: Dee, Emily, Kaleb

And there's honestly many more I'd rather see, but I went with what I thought the fan/producer consensus would be.
 

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